Soybean oil Sunday night review . the market looked like it was going higher for a while but it did almost a complete reversal of the Swing we were looking at last week so that's what we were looking for in the video.
ZLF2020 trade ideas
Soybean Oil’s Red Pill Moment: The Short Signal Just Hit"You’ve been waiting, watching, wondering when the veil would lift. Today is that day."
Soybean oil just crossed a threshold, one that turns theory into action. This isn't just a hint anymore; it’s a red pill moment. Today, we got the confirmation we needed: a Daily bearish momentum divergence trigger has sealed the deal. If you've been waiting for a sign, here it is—the entry point is here.
Decoding the Signs from the Commitment of Traders (COT)
"What if I told you that the market leaves clues? And only the most discerning see them."
Our strategy isn’t based on surface-level movements but on patterns and signals that tell the deeper story. Soybean oil is primed for a down move. Let’s break down the intel:
Commercials’ Short Stance
Relative to their positioning over the last 26 weeks, commercials have positioned themselves heavily short. Last time they were this committed was December 2023, a setup that spelled trouble for the long side.
Overvaluation Across Key Metrics
Against gold and treasuries, soybean oil is flashing overvalued based on our WillVal indicator. This isn’t random; the market is overextended and vulnerable to the downside.
Bearish “Pinch” Confirmation
Two weeks ago, a Bearish Pinch formed on ADX/Stochastic—one of the most reliable indicators of an impending pullback. Today’s momentum divergence confirms it. The alignment is uncanny, if you’re paying attention.
Seasonal Trends: Down to December
True Seasonal points down, favoring the bears. It’s as if time itself is backing this move.
Supplementary Indicators Are Aligned
Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic are all signaling in unison: the tide is turning. Each of these alone is meaningful, but together, they mark a rare convergence that few recognize.
"The trigger is pulled, and now we walk the path."
This isn’t a drill. Today’s bearish momentum divergence confirmation is the daily trend trigger we needed, a line in the sand between potential and execution. For those who see beyond the surface, this is your sign to take action.
To uncover more of these market signals and gain the insights no one else is sharing, follow @Tradius_Trades. Because once you’re in on the code, everything changes.
Soybean Oil : Are we in a wave 3 of 3 of 3???Looking closer at the smaller structure, it appears very excitably bullish. The upside potential is highly probable. An impulsive push should validate the 3 of 3 of 3. Technical indicators are supportive too.
Soybean oil10.25.24 soybean oil is trading in a Range box but the general pattern looks as if it's going to make newer highs despite a two-bar reversal at the time of this video that suggests that the Market's going to go a little bit lower first.
Soybean Oil Futures
The price is in a downtrend in the recent days, indicated by the series of lower highs and lower lows from the last peak around $45.
Current price level: $41.90, which marks a significant drop of -3.30% on the last candle.
There seems to be support around $41, which has been tested multiple times (mid-August and today). A break below this level could signal further downside.
The price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that it may be in an oversold condition. Historically, the price tends to revert back towards the mean (the middle band) after touching the lower band.
The bands are not extremely wide, suggesting low volatility during the last period.
Recent days have shown higher volume on down candles, which could indicate strong selling pressure.
The largest red volume bar appears in the last session, showing intense selling interest.
Short-term: The price has been trending downward after a rejection near $44. The downward momentum is increasing, and the next major support is around $41. If it holds, there may be a bounce, but breaking it could lead to further downside.
Medium-term: The chart shows that after a rally from June to July 2024, the price failed to sustain the uptrend and reversed in mid-August. Currently, the trend favors the bears.
For bulls: Look for a bounce at $41 or a break above the 20-day moving average with increasing volume to confirm a reversal.
For bears: Watch for a confirmed break below the $41 support for further downside, possibly targeting the next support level near $38.
COT Analysis - Grain SectorThis week, ZL, ZM, ZC & ZW are all setup for shorts based on the COT strategy.
This is a SETUP market, it does not mean short now. It means if I am presented with an entry TRIGGER, I will enter short. Until then, I wait.
Enjoy your weekend.
ZL. Zigzag for wave 2.Working on the idea of a Zigzag pattern for Wave ((2)) in the soybean oil market.
In Elliott Wave Theory, a Zigzag pattern is a corrective wave pattern that usually consists of three waves:
Wave A:
This is the initial decline from 42.68 in 5 wave sequence, setting the stage for the corrective pattern.
Wave B:
3 wave corrective rally that follows Wave A.
Wave C:
This is the final leg of the Zigzag pattern, typically extending beyond the end of Wave A. Wave C is always either an impulse or a diagonal. My interpretation of the current structure is that Wave C has developed into an expanding diagonal and may possibly end at 3956.
Invalidation for this idea = 3956
Gold and silver this is December 5th and I'm looking at a number of markets in addition to the metals. there were nice easy moves on gold and silver for a scalp. the soybean oil may start going higher if it finds a 2-point reversal to go higher and then I would look for it to possibly break higher and expand if it can just reach the previous High
Multiple markets in this video I went back and looked at all the markets that I talked about this weekend and earlier today. right...now it's about noon New York Standard Time. and they wanted to review if the thoughts that I had on a previous day represent what I described or not based on the price action of a number of markets.
Soybean oil Dec: Setup for the hourlyThere is a likely 5 wave sequence(hourly) to the upside which should call for more attention and also knowing your risk level. The presence of a positive divergence against MACD gives weight to the possibility of the pending upturn.
Soyben Oil : Head & Shoulderon a log scale, the head and shoulder formation objective have likely been fulfilled. This should augment the idea of
a high probable bottoming with the other confluences in price objectives.
Soybean Oil : Bull setup?December beanoil is a high probable low area worth having a closer look as numerous projections and retracement confluencing at around the 37-38 cts.
The time taken in the bull market from March '20 to April '22 is almost the same time it took to retreat. At the recent low,it took 840 calendar days compared to 772 days of rise.
Supporting the high probability is the triple divergence of MACD.
ES gold soybean oil8 28. 24 in this video there was a 2-bar reversal moving lower on the ES and I think this could be a good short trade with a small stop and potentially a real good Target or a substantially real good Target lower and I explained that. I don't think it will take a large stop to stay in the trade. gold has been Trading in a Range it was predictable early in that pattern.... and it's a good example of how markets can make new highs and you would think that that would be easy Trading but it really isn't that easy unless you can frame it and also realize that markets that make new highs frequently don't go a lot higher or lower.. the range and you want to judge the market that way if the range is significant enough to give you short-term trades as a buyer and or a seller. the last Market was Soybean Market and it could be one of those examples where you get out of your trade if you were long at the bottom and now it's getting a little tougher to stay long without Corrections.... and you want to think about those decisions because if it doesn't go much lower it can go higher than we have so far. I think it's tough to hold trades like this where the market had a great reversal point to go higher but the market didn't give it as much of a reward as you would like.... and that can influence you to think that the market is at high risk of making new lows and that you should take your profit. I talk about that a little bit.
Long trade in soybean oil8 19 24 soybean oil just generated a long trade during this video. it was not a long trade last night because it was too late to go long... but it ended up going just a little higher and then going lower to a support area a little after 10:00 in the morning..... and it's worth looking at the differences in the pattern to avoid what would have been a losing trade versus getting into a trade a little bit later when it corrected to a support and gave you much better opportunity with essentially very little risk compared to the reward. dxy, oil, ES, gold, Tesla we're also discussed in this video
Gold soybean oil this is the second video for Sunday. there's some follow-up here from earlier tonight. we also are looking at gold and soybean oil. soybean oil is a clean reversal pattern to go higher and we use a small stop.
soybean oil8.6.24 soybean oil went a little bit lower today to a measured move and a possible reversal with a fairly small stop. I do not trade this Market. it but it is probably a good Market to look at. I showed you how you could have found the short trade, where you should have taken your profit, that you have the beginning of a long trade to go higher. it's a good exercise in knowing and consciously thinking about where the buyers and the sellers are on the way down and on the way up.
long-term upward trendI am hoping for an upcoming bearish trend break.
You can start buying soybean oil at the current price 46.00 And buy limit at price 44.00.
If the D1 bottom zone 42.00 is broken, cut loss and close the order immediately.
Is Soybean Oil Heating Up? Of the grains and oilseeds, soybean oil has been the clear laggard. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and even soybean meal have seen notable rallies over the course of the last 4-6 weeks. However, there are indications that may soon change. As ingredient buyers know, soybean oil typically trades at a significant premium to its rival palm oil. The chart below overlays a 5-year continuous chart of front month soybean oil futures prices along with a 5-year continuous chart of Malaysian palm oil futures. As displayed by the chart, in each instance over the past 5 years in which SBO’s premium has eroded relative to palm oil, we’ve seen soybean oil prices rally in excess of 15%.
Fund Positioning :
Extreme fund positioning is typically viewed as a contrary indicator. As such, managed money funds holding their largest net-short position in soybean oil futures of any point in the last 5-years adds to the bullish case in the immediate term. Per the last CFTC Commitment of Traders report, managed money was holding a net-short position of 58,748 contracts. In the instance that prices grind higher, short-covering on behalf of managed money could accelerate a move to the upside.
Technicals :
Lastly, the technical landscape of soybean oil also looks constructive. There is significant bullish divergence between the two most recent lows, and a standard 14-day RSI. In other words, the most recent successive lows came on less conviction. A break and close above the most recent swing high of 50 should lay the groundwork for a test of the swing-highs observed last July between 64 and 66.
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ZL1! looking strong in lower 40'sLooks like volume is picking up in the lower 40's range on soybean oil. The summer months could also bring heavy volume and we could see buyers take control. I could see it hit the top of my trend line before coming back down in the colder months. Just an idea and would love to see thoughts
ZL downtrendstill in downtrend mode find short or swing short. Break every support just find nearest resistance to find EP and if break structure hold for swing 1: 5 risk management
CBOT soybeans set one-month low under pressure from firm dollarChicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended weaker on Tuesday after touching a one-month low as strength in the dollar weighed on grain markets.
CBOT May soybeans SK24 settled down 13-1/4 cents at $11.45 per
bushel and hit their lowest price since March 6.
CBOT May soymeal SMK24 ended down $3.20 at $335.30 per short
ton, and May soyoil BOK24 dropped 0.56 cent to finish at 44.91 cents per pound.
The United States continues to face competition for global soybean export sales from cheaper Brazilian supplies.
