Soybean Oil Futures ShortZL1! is now net short on Regression break downwards
This commodity has (+1.4%) monthly roll short.
I am considering this trade
ZLK2022 trade ideas
ZLH 15m Long 2025-01-20 10:50PM Maybe I should call this a 5m timeframe. I did my analysis on a 15m, but refined my zones on a 5m.
Also, I was doing my analysis late on the 20th, and was seeing my target as the upper curve. If I had taken that trade, I would have wanted to follow with my stop, but I was about to go to sleep, so if my entry was filled, I wouldn't have been able to manage the trade, so I went to sleep. Upon further analysis the following morning, I realized that, by looking for a target on the 5m, I would have found a good target for a limit order.
So if I had been able to stay awake, this would have been my setup:
- Upper curve found on 1h on Jan 15: *** 46.53-17.10 ***
- Lower curve found on 1h at 1am Jan 9: *** 41.27-41.05 ***
- Entry zone: 45.81-45.77
- Target zone: 46.12-46.33
My question is: Would that have been a good trade based on solid analysis, or am I just seeing in hindsight that it *would* have worked, and tailoring my analysis to fit what the market actually did but based on weak data? Like maybe my profit zone should have been drawn based on the high on 1/16 at 06:30 or so?
Review of the markets1.15. 25 I went through a few markets today and I wanted you to see the repetitive nature of certain trade signals and I will explain this in more detail in the video. I always look for trades with a small stop..... I always look for 2 bar reversals. if you can get into a trade with a small stop and it moves in the direction of that stop because it's a two-bar reversal you will find that many of your trades will be profitable and that most of your trades will not stop you out at least for a while. the entries are systemic and you should expect to look at markets that you calculate will go in a certain direction with a small stop... but sometimes you don't want to take the trade because you're just not certain of that.... and it's okay to walk away from a trade because you don't lose money if you don't take a trade. what happens when you make an effort not to be so impulsive that you must take a trade this gives you a chance to study the market without impulsive trade decisions when the Market's not clear enough. learn from a trade that looks like it might work but you didn't like it enough to take the trade. you'll get better at it but if you trade every trade that comes along regardless of your conviction you're learning to trade impulsively and that's going to lose your money and stop you from Trading the market because it doesn't take too many losing trades before you conclude that it's not worth it. when you enter a trade you should have a Target and a stop..... some trades if you look for the buyers and the sellers will automatically tell you when you don't have a good trade when you approach it when you look for where the buyers and the sellers are at the time your contemplating an entry.
Head & Shoulders trap on Soybean OilSoybean Oil has drawn a nice Head & Shoulders pattern. After breaking the neckline, the market should have fallen - but it did the opposite, it's rising. Now, short sellers are trapped, and the market is set to punish them. They have stop losses in obvious places - TARGET 1 is the minimum the market is going to hit. TARGET 2 is very probable in my opinion; long term, Soybean Oil is in an uptrend, and the H&S failure was the Bears' last breath.
SOYBEAN OIL Future (ZL!) Long on Regression BreakSoybean Futures are running a (-1%) monthly roll long and its within the consolidation of last couple of months.
I won't take this trade and although there maybe a couple of % in it. It's just a hard grinned.
Soybeans to be flipped in the weekly pan!We have entered into acceptance with a previous range's value and also got rejected into its POC. Up next is the VAL as the support
Presented are two setups. 7.17 short and 7.09 long.
Soybean Oil : A potential bull phasePrice retreated 0.786% of the entire bull run and confluence with wave C supporting at 0.618 of wave A presents a call for closer scrutiny. The upswing displayed a 5 wave overlapping sequence which can be interpreted as a leading diagonal wave 1. Implication is highly probable bullish.
A third attempt breakout above the trendline retreated back under the trendline was a wet blanket. However, market appears intact. A move above 49.16 will increase the probability further upside.
Soybean Oil - 50 years chart, what do you see?Let's look at Fibonacci levels. The attached chart, on a logarithmic scale, spans over 50 years - that's huge! The market just bounced from the 61.8% level, confirming that the bulls are still alive. Let's switch to a lower timeframe in the next post to see if anything interesting is happening there.
Soybean Oil - ultra big pictureSoybean Oil:
- 1970-1974: Prices rose from $8.6 to $48 = ~ 450% increase
- 1974-2000: Sideways movement between $15-$40
- 2000-2008: Bull market, prices surged from $15 to $70 = ~ 350% increase
- 2008-2020: Retracement to $25
- 2020-2022: Another bull market, prices went up from $25 to $87 = ~ 250% increase
- 2022-2024: Retracement to $38
But has the retracement ended? You never know, but at some point, it will, and current price levels are quite interesting. Check the next message for more
Soybean Oil // bearish expansion phaseAll 3 major timeframes (MN, W, D) are bearish, and the market is in a short expansion phase.
The idea is valid while the daily is waving south.
GoldMonday I talked about a number of markets here but I focused on the gold market because it took a $9000 reversal lower. this really is not a big deal but there are ways that you can spend your time efficiently make trade decisions that will be beneficial for you..... in this particular case if you'd use the 2 bar reversal Not only would you have gotten out of a long trade but you might even consider a long trade..... depending on whether or not you think like a buyer or a seller. I ran out of time on this video and it was a little sloppy at the end of the video.... I will try to make amends for that when I have time.
Soybean oil Sunday night review . the market looked like it was going higher for a while but it did almost a complete reversal of the Swing we were looking at last week so that's what we were looking for in the video.
Soybean Oil’s Red Pill Moment: The Short Signal Just Hit"You’ve been waiting, watching, wondering when the veil would lift. Today is that day."
Soybean oil just crossed a threshold, one that turns theory into action. This isn't just a hint anymore; it’s a red pill moment. Today, we got the confirmation we needed: a Daily bearish momentum divergence trigger has sealed the deal. If you've been waiting for a sign, here it is—the entry point is here.
Decoding the Signs from the Commitment of Traders (COT)
"What if I told you that the market leaves clues? And only the most discerning see them."
Our strategy isn’t based on surface-level movements but on patterns and signals that tell the deeper story. Soybean oil is primed for a down move. Let’s break down the intel:
Commercials’ Short Stance
Relative to their positioning over the last 26 weeks, commercials have positioned themselves heavily short. Last time they were this committed was December 2023, a setup that spelled trouble for the long side.
Overvaluation Across Key Metrics
Against gold and treasuries, soybean oil is flashing overvalued based on our WillVal indicator. This isn’t random; the market is overextended and vulnerable to the downside.
Bearish “Pinch” Confirmation
Two weeks ago, a Bearish Pinch formed on ADX/Stochastic—one of the most reliable indicators of an impending pullback. Today’s momentum divergence confirms it. The alignment is uncanny, if you’re paying attention.
Seasonal Trends: Down to December
True Seasonal points down, favoring the bears. It’s as if time itself is backing this move.
Supplementary Indicators Are Aligned
Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic are all signaling in unison: the tide is turning. Each of these alone is meaningful, but together, they mark a rare convergence that few recognize.
"The trigger is pulled, and now we walk the path."
This isn’t a drill. Today’s bearish momentum divergence confirmation is the daily trend trigger we needed, a line in the sand between potential and execution. For those who see beyond the surface, this is your sign to take action.
To uncover more of these market signals and gain the insights no one else is sharing, follow @Tradius_Trades. Because once you’re in on the code, everything changes.
Soybean Oil : Are we in a wave 3 of 3 of 3???Looking closer at the smaller structure, it appears very excitably bullish. The upside potential is highly probable. An impulsive push should validate the 3 of 3 of 3. Technical indicators are supportive too.
Soybean oil10.25.24 soybean oil is trading in a Range box but the general pattern looks as if it's going to make newer highs despite a two-bar reversal at the time of this video that suggests that the Market's going to go a little bit lower first.
Soybean Oil Futures
The price is in a downtrend in the recent days, indicated by the series of lower highs and lower lows from the last peak around $45.
Current price level: $41.90, which marks a significant drop of -3.30% on the last candle.
There seems to be support around $41, which has been tested multiple times (mid-August and today). A break below this level could signal further downside.
The price is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that it may be in an oversold condition. Historically, the price tends to revert back towards the mean (the middle band) after touching the lower band.
The bands are not extremely wide, suggesting low volatility during the last period.
Recent days have shown higher volume on down candles, which could indicate strong selling pressure.
The largest red volume bar appears in the last session, showing intense selling interest.
Short-term: The price has been trending downward after a rejection near $44. The downward momentum is increasing, and the next major support is around $41. If it holds, there may be a bounce, but breaking it could lead to further downside.
Medium-term: The chart shows that after a rally from June to July 2024, the price failed to sustain the uptrend and reversed in mid-August. Currently, the trend favors the bears.
For bulls: Look for a bounce at $41 or a break above the 20-day moving average with increasing volume to confirm a reversal.
For bears: Watch for a confirmed break below the $41 support for further downside, possibly targeting the next support level near $38.
COT Analysis - Grain SectorThis week, ZL, ZM, ZC & ZW are all setup for shorts based on the COT strategy.
This is a SETUP market, it does not mean short now. It means if I am presented with an entry TRIGGER, I will enter short. Until then, I wait.
Enjoy your weekend.
ZL. Zigzag for wave 2.Working on the idea of a Zigzag pattern for Wave ((2)) in the soybean oil market.
In Elliott Wave Theory, a Zigzag pattern is a corrective wave pattern that usually consists of three waves:
Wave A:
This is the initial decline from 42.68 in 5 wave sequence, setting the stage for the corrective pattern.
Wave B:
3 wave corrective rally that follows Wave A.
Wave C:
This is the final leg of the Zigzag pattern, typically extending beyond the end of Wave A. Wave C is always either an impulse or a diagonal. My interpretation of the current structure is that Wave C has developed into an expanding diagonal and may possibly end at 3956.
Invalidation for this idea = 3956
Gold and silver this is December 5th and I'm looking at a number of markets in addition to the metals. there were nice easy moves on gold and silver for a scalp. the soybean oil may start going higher if it finds a 2-point reversal to go higher and then I would look for it to possibly break higher and expand if it can just reach the previous High
Multiple markets in this video I went back and looked at all the markets that I talked about this weekend and earlier today. right...now it's about noon New York Standard Time. and they wanted to review if the thoughts that I had on a previous day represent what I described or not based on the price action of a number of markets.
Soybean oil Dec: Setup for the hourlyThere is a likely 5 wave sequence(hourly) to the upside which should call for more attention and also knowing your risk level. The presence of a positive divergence against MACD gives weight to the possibility of the pending upturn.
Soyben Oil : Head & Shoulderon a log scale, the head and shoulder formation objective have likely been fulfilled. This should augment the idea of
a high probable bottoming with the other confluences in price objectives.
