ZM1! trade ideas
June 2017 Soybean Crush Spread TradePM's Crush Spread (+1 ZS Soybeans, -1 ZL oil -1 ZM meal to sell this spread). September 2017 futures contracts.
This chart is weighted by Market value of each contract (the y scale shows profit / loss per 1 lot).
1. Seasonable window for lower prices in this spread from end of May until end of June.
2. RSI Divergence.
CBoT soyameal weeklyThe weekly continuation chart especially shows that there is not such awfully much to show.
There is a gap between, roughly, the 450 and the 465 level and the rules of TA teach us that gaps always are filled. Regretfully, however, same TA rules do not teach us when that gap has to be filled so that doesn’t particularly help us a lot here and now.
Price has developed an ascending price channel that is drawn in the chart with dashed lines and that is rather wide due to the rally during April/May 2016 so the upper boundary of same channel does not help us too much here either.
The lower boundary of same channel, however, shows various supportive points during February/April 2016, during September/October 2016 and during January 2017.
During the past 7 weeks, price has been moving rather sideways within a channel between, roughly, 330 and 350. We have coloured a green triangle between the lines which represents a strong supportive zone between, roughly, 330 and 320 during the coming week.
The most logical move to expect from here and now is a possible further decline of price into its support and a bounce up from there with, possibly, 400 or even up to 475 as target. Too early to assume right now but to keep in mind as possible future play.
CBoT soyamealThe daily MAY17 chart does not tell us anything material other than that there is an ascending supportive trend line that starts at around 201 during October 2016 and supports price during January 2017 at the 313/315 level.
Price would meet support again at around the 322/324 level during the coming week.
Soybean MealThis market is a little more interesting than Soybean commented. The downward trend is slowing and candles are starting to rise. This market may be ready to move to higher prices off of the bullish flag. Meal will either produce a double top reversal, move higher into a Butterfly pattern or crash completely. Soybean Meal like Soybeans are moving against the huge Brazil harvest.
Soybean MealMay Soybean Meal also has a bullish flag. Next target for bulls is 360. As stated in my Soybean comments, Brazil and Argentina are harvesting so this price action may be under duress. Gartley pattern has completed.
Soybean MealMarch Soybean Meal up sharply on USDA report. Next target for bulls is the top of previous high at 331.6
March Soybean MealSoybean Meal saw a little gain today. The candle created did not reach 50% of the previous day candle. There is a downtrending wedge here that has been indicating further downside, but bulls have supported this market and Soybeans for quite a while. We are all waiting for the Thursday USDA numbers. There are two patterns overlapped here, both indicating a bullish setup. Unfortunately it will take a lot to make this market go lower before Thursday. More chop ahead.
March Soybean MealMarch Soybean Meal is wedging down and looking to complete an bullish Cypher pattern that has been going on for quite a while. Don't be surprised if Monday is another up day followed by more chop. If bears can push it lower, look for 304.2 as a target.
CBoT soyamealSoyameal:
Soyameal price has not been following our preferred route on the chart and price has been taking out some very important supportive levels lately. The bottom of the story is the same as with soybeans but with the values of the soymeal contract. For now we look for price to drop another 3-5% during the come 1 to 2 weeks after which we will see whether we can try to name a tradable bottom again or whether we should start considering an alternative scenario. Pivotal resistance is at 324 basis the March contract.
CBoT SoyamealSoyameal:
Price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows that look quite similar to the soybean picture. Like in the soybean chart, the EW current EW count suggests that price is in the start of its 3 of 3 wave which should lead the price to substantial higher levels from here which could easily add 30% to today's value before the spring starts. Price is likely to continue trading up from here but could, under lead of the soybean price make on more dip as well. We keep 309/308 as the point where we will reconsider our bull scenario. We consider the 350 level as our first target during the first half of January after which price can make a corrective move down before it continues trading up.
January Soybean Meal Wedging upJan 2017 Soybean Meal is creating a wedge up scenario but also locked in a price channel. Look for more upside to complete Butterfly Pattern. There is also a possible double top rejection happening here from price action back in Oct 27 & 28, and seasonal trends show futures starting to slide lower most years.
CBoT SoyamealSoyameal:
Price advanced further during the past week and broke up through our pivotal resistance level. Stops were hit and short traders are now sidelined.
We now anticipate that price will probably trade further up during the coming 2 weeks or so to reach the 345 zone from where it will probably still make one run down. Breaking further up and trading higher than 345 will probably mean that a long term bottom has been put on the chart.
We are going to step back in order to have a distanced look at this market for some time.
CBoT soyameal still a short but no margin at the upside Soyameal:
Further sideways move during the week with only exception during Thursday's session when price spiked up and actually penetrated the most recent high at 310.90 which was not what we were looking for. The pull back that followed indicated that is could have been a bull-trap but it could also be that we have to reconsider our bear scenario. A close above the 312 during one of the sessions during the coming week will hit our stop level and will probably be the bode that price wants to trade up to 325/330 from here.
For now our bear bias remains unchanged but there is no more margin to the upside.
CBoT soyameal short remains in force but stops are tightened Soyameal:
Basically a non-event again during the past week with, indeed, one more test of the 295 region after which price bounced up again. We keep our bias unchanged to the downside but stops should be tightened. A quick look at the Bollinger Band (not displayed on the chart) shows that the BB has been contracting considerably during the recent past which is a bode that a violent move is coming the market. We still expect same move to be to the downside but since there are no guarantees offered in TA it is a wise policy to tighten the stops (and to take some long straddles).
CBoT soyameal remains a short playSoyameal:
Price has been trading in a sideways moving channel between 310 on the upside and 295 on the downside for 12 sessions now and seems to be stuck between these two levels. As far as we are concerned we can bounce one more time to the upside of the sideward moving channel during next week after which we still expect it to break down decisively through its 295 supportive level and to start trading for much lower values.
CBoT soyameal still bearishSoyameal:
Price has been moving mostly sideways during the week while making a new recent low during Tuesday's session. There is really nothing much to add to our views and expectations as already put down during the past weeks. We maintain our bear scenario for this price which much lower values to be traded in future.
CBoT soyameal unchanged shortSoyameal:
Price gave us an exciting session during last Friday finally when it broke its recent low at the 304 level which, apparently, was not easy nut to crack. Still, the move of last Friday was rather impulsive and the route is now free to trade to the 285/280 zone by the first week of October. We keep our mid/long term bias unchanged to the downside and expect acceleration of the decline form here and now.
CBoT soyameal remains a short play for nowSoyameal:
Price did make an impulsive move to the downside early in the week as expected and moved sideways during the Wednesday session and the Thursday session. Same pattern made us expect that price would continue its move down from last Friday or next Monday onward but price made an impulsive move up instead. It could be that the corrective move up has already started which we will know if the recent high of 321.1 would be broken to the upside. In that case we will see further advance of price to 300 or more after which a reversal back is to be expected again. Our overall outlook for the mid term does not change and we keep our price target at much lower levels but it could be that our timing needs reconsideration.
CBoT Soyameal continued shortSoyameal:
No new input to be seen on this chart from last week and we have left the chart unchanged. We anticipate further decline in price during September.
CBoT soyameal unchanged shortSoyameal:
Nothing much new to add to the picture of this chart for now and we keep our bias unchanged for lower values. During last Thursday's session price broke its recent 321.20 low which was confirmed during the session of last Friday and the way is now open for price to trade toward the next recent low at around the 280 level that we expect to reach during the first half of September. After this we will most probably trail the target down but we first want to see what the coming 2 weeks will bring us.
CBoT soyameal remains a short playSoyameal:
Price has been moving sideways more than anything else during the past week and reversed on Tuesday after an initial and minor swing up. Thus far price is following our preferred path reasonably well and we keep our target on lower levels and have even trailed down same target to the 285/275 level after which we expect even lower levels from there. No changes in our expectations except a further trailed target than before.
