ZN1! trade ideas
Sideways Correction in BondsBonds are oscillating in the narrow range between 117'19 and 119'01. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, suggesting there is little momentum at the moment to move then needle either way. We appear to be in a sideways corrective phase, after topping out at 120'14, then retracing to 117'19. If we catch more momentum, we could test highs again at 120'14. If 117'19 does not hold, watch for support at 117'08 and 116'20.
Analysis on ZN1Good morning all! On ZN1 the unit of time that I suggest to you is 30 minutes. Here we have two possibilities. If for example the resistance line is broken with force by a large candle and followed by a large volume we would have a high probability of having an uptrend. On the other hand, if it is the support line which is broken with force as well as the vwap indicator, we would have a strong probability of a downtrend.Thanks.
Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: 10-YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce
Type : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 120'30'5
Pivot: 118'07'0
Support : 116'17'0
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trend channel and moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will bounce off the pivot at 118'07'0 in line with the overlap support to the 1st resistance at 120'30'5 at the swing high.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 116'17'0 at the overlap swing low in line with the two 61.8% fibonacci projections.
Fundamentals: US indexes moved moderately higher with better-than-expected US economic reports. Hence, we have a bullish view on the 10-year t-note futures.
Potential Bullish ContinuationTitle: 10-YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce
Type : Bullish Bounce
Resistance : 120'30'5
Pivot: 118'07'0
Support : 116'17'0
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving in an ascending trend channel and moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will bounce off the pivot at 118'07'0 in line with the overlap support and 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 120'30'5 at the swing high.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 116'17'0 at the overlap swing low in line with the two 61.8% fibonacci projections.
Fundamentals: US indexes moved moderately higher with better-than-expected US economic reports on Wednesday. Hence, we have a bullish view on the 10-year t-note futures.
NZ!Take your profit at the level of red line.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open)
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this
post.
Please do not forget the v
"like" W button A@ & Share it with your friends; thanks, and
Trade safe.
NZ1! On the 30 min frame.Take your profit at the level of red line. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open)
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this
post.
Please do not forget the v
"like" W button A@ & Share it with your friends; thanks, and
Trade safe.
Bonds Rip!!Bonds have soared, blasting through resistance at 118'04 and crossing the vacuum zone to 119'01. We anticipated resistance at 118'04, but momentum came through and we have broken through 119'01, meeting resistance just above this level confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and should momentum continue, we should be able to hit 119'23, the next level. If we retrace, watch the vacuum zone below to 118'04.
AnalysisOn this chart we are in a bullish channel situation. Here, the support line is more important than the resistance line. Therefore, we will have a high probability of a downtrend if and only if the vwap indicator and the support line are forcefully broken by a large red candle accompanied by large red volume. thanks.
Bonds Edge HigherBonds have continued their rally, with ZN piercing through the 117's to hit our target at 118'04. A brief retracement has taken us back to 117'19, which was a previous target. The Kovach OBV has steadily risen, but has since leveled off a bit, which could suggest we are due for a retracement or some ranging. We should have support at 116'20 if we retrace further. If we are able to breakout, then there is a vacuum zone to 119'01, which is our next target.
Dead Cat Bounce for Bonds?Bonds have pressed higher following the Fed's 75bps rate hike. We have broken out of 115'29 back into the 116 handle, topping out at our level at 116'20. A red triangle on the KRI suggests that we are facing resistance here. We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge consolidation pattern, but the Kovach OBV has leveled off, so it is likely we will fall from here. Watch 115'29 or 115'03 for support. If we are able to break out further, the next target is 117'08.
Bond Yields Soar as APAC Prices in CPI and Fed's ReactionBonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We sliced through the 117's with ease and are finally finding support at the base of the 116 handle. We have projected another level of support at 115'29 using inverse Fibonacci extension levels since we've simply run out of support levels for the US ten year. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, however we do appear to be finally leveling off a bit, so perhaps this level will hold. If not, expect resistance from 116'20.
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.