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Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes Declines in 5 WavesShort term Elliott wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests the decline from August 5, 2020 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from August 5, 2020 high, wave 1 ended at 136 and bounce in wave 2 ended at 137’2. The Notes then extended lower and ended wave ((3)) at 130’2. Bounce in wave ((4)) is proposed complete at 137’245.
Wave ((5)) lower is currently in progress but it still needs to break below the previous low at 130’2 to rule out a double correction. Structure of the decline from wave ((4)) looks impulsive in 5 waves with a divergence at the end of wave 5 of (1), favoring further downside. Down from wave ((4)), wave 1 ended at 132 and rally in wave 2 ended at 132’23. The Notes then extends lower in wave 3 towards 132’25 and wave 4 bounce ended at 132’06. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 131’18 and this also completed wave (1) of ((5)).
Wave (2) rally is in progress to correct cycle from April 22 peak (132’245) before the decline resumes. As far as pivot at 132’24 high stays intact, expect rally to find sellers in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
ZN1! uptrend soon?Since the spectacular crash beginning in mid-Feb on fears of rate hike, seems like 10yr Treasury futures have found a bottom at around 130'27, and could be ready for a move up.
Movement since Feb 2021
While the chart showed some cracks since around 11 Feb (following a false double bottom in the daily chart), the big drop took place on 26 Feb, by closing 47 points below previous close at 133'21.5.
Since then, each subsequent wave has been shallower, with bottom found at around 130'27. and it is now ~1.4 dollars higher at 132'09. I would say the aforementioned bottom has been confirmed as price had rebounded to above the 10sma and 20sma, albeit retraced slightly after approaching the 40sma.
What next?
Imo the 10yr UST futures may pull back further to around 131'21 (ie below the 10 and 20sma), before starting an uptrend move. I would say 134 before end of May seems plausible at this juncture.
Would consider my view a fail if price drops below 131'15 and no rebound thereafter.
Let's see.