ZN1! trade ideas
A longer term perspective on BondsThe recent sell off in the bonds has been sharp and is having reverberations throughout the broader markets.
This is a monthly chart looking at bond prices going back twenty years. I was surprised to find that although the current price action has felt extreme, the bonds are still well within a 2 standard deviation regression channel.
I've drawn in some possible pathways for bond prices over the next decade. While I believe there's a fairly high probability that the bottom of the regression channel around 125'00'0 will be tested and prices will eventuate toward high value areas on the volume profile, the pathways are less of a forecast and more of an illustration of questions that I have.
Specifically: will the highs around 142'00'0 during the March 2020 COVID crash be tested (and possibly taken out), or will they end up being the high for the foreseeable future? If Bond prices continue to fall, when will the FED step in and apply yield curve control? Most importantly, what effects will all of this have on the broader markets?
In April 2019, the Federal Reserve released a report which stated that for every 2.5 move up in the DXY, there is a 10% decline in new C&I bank loan origination. Not only do falling bond prices lead to more challenging debt environments for businesses and consumers, they can lead to a stronger dollar thus putting deflationary pressures on an economy.
Needless to say, trading bond positions on a Monthly time frame isn't really viable (or exciting) for most retail traders. However, keeping these kind of macro ideas in mind help me provide a context and framework toward my own trading.
Easy money by selling short US bonds market ( ZN & ZB) The interest rate can only go up and up, we can expect easy money.
The weekly chart shows a significant bearish trend that may have room to extend.
Don't try to surf , just sell and wait.
others markets ( stock indices , commodities, and currencies) will be volatile and quite difficult to trade, while the bonds market have only one trend : the south.
10 year bond broke broadening rising wedge supportBroadening rising wedge broke earlier, low will be tested and yields are going to spike and make new intermediate highs.
1.6% will only be seen in the rear view mirror.
10Y T NOTE FUTURES (ZN1!) SwingThe Market is in a DownTrend.
Everything is mentioned on the chart
The market will keep going down ( My prediction)
Target A: 131'20'5
IF you have a,any questions, leave it in the commentbox
ZN BUY SIGNALHere's an other SELL signal of ZN1. You can trust it for at least 4hours from now.
i like to keep it clean and simple so anyone can understand.
ZN Buy SIgnal here's another SIgnal "BUY" for ZN. all the indicators indicate it will go High Today.
Simple, clean and Readabl by any person.
ZN1! Still In Trending Down!Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my graphical analysis Of The 10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES, there is a high probability of drop to the 131'03'5 level in the coming weeks.
analyse We are waiting for a break of the support area 133’20’5 with a strong candle, and from there we will enter selling targeting the area 132’12’0 as the first target and also 131’29’0 as the second target.
in stock,index 2021-2022 is bull marketso in bons ,tnote =128,gold= 1650 posible , we see down trend
if green trend line break new+ trend will start
for longterm investor
buy stock like FORD ,DOUTCH BANK ,LUFTHANSA is best idea
buy gold in 1650-1700 and hold until 2400 is exclent
analyse We note that the price successfully broke the support 135’17’0 and also successfully re-corrected, and from it we conclude that the price continues to descend to levels of 134’29’5
BEST INDICATOR FOR TLT: When to build positionsBuilding on the last chart I published, I have added some additional markings. Vertical lines indicate trend resistance levels of the ZN1!/ZB1! directly corresponding with bottoms in TLT.
