ZN1! trade ideas
long ZNwas waiting for the 108 area but entered long today at 109'20
will add if we see 108 area this is a swing long for the end of year
US treausires are showing bullish patternTreasuries are trying to recover after making some nice and deep pullback in last few months as FED decided to wait on more economic data before they may finally cut rates. The pattern on 10 year US notes is looking bullish here after that impulse up since Novemeber, seen as wave (A), so obviously this tells us in which direction market can move after a retracement. Probably up! Well, this retracement in three waves is already visible on the charts below, so speculators can be positioned for more upside into wave (C) in months ahead, especially if FED is really going to cut rates this year, and if maybe NFP data finally disappoints this Friday. In such case, I think metals can explode, while the dollar sells off. Speculation for BOJ rate change in March and possibly"hawkish" ECB tomorrow (compared to FED) can help the dollar to be sold IMO. The only concern is risk-off, but bearish dollar/ bullish stocks correlation hasn't been there for a while anyway.
Hope you love the analysis.
GH
ZN long: Expecting 10Y bond yields to crashI am now expecting that the 10Y yield to crash and thus the trade here will be to long ZN futures. Please note that what this implies is that rates are coming down and there will be a rotation from equities to fix income and that means equity markets WILL CRASH sooner rather than later.
The most important chart ahead of tomorrow Tomorrow we will have a lot of information and data given to the market. Everything from the QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) from the Treasury to know what the allocation (or mix) of supply will be for the market between bills/notes/bonds. Then we will have private jobs data from the ADP. Following that we will have the ECI (employment Cost Index), then a few hours later we will hear from the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell and the FOMC.
In the meantime, the 10yr notes market looks poised to rally in a "bull flag pattern" setup which does suggest a continuation of note market strength and ultimately US Dollar weakness. However, a break of the 38% retracement at 110'09' would suggest otherwise and in that case we could see the US Dollar really take off to the upside as the bond market nullifies the pattern and looks to correct further below 109'00.
10Y Treasury Bond Is Looking For A Bigger RecoveryTreasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside can be coming within a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally, where first leg (A) can be still in progress or maybe already completed as an impulse. Support on subwave 4 or wave (B) dips are at 110-111.
ZNCurrently ZN futures are in the buy zone, but if the red average indicated by the blue arrow is broken and we enter the green zone, the market will be in the sell phase.
ZN1! / $TLT Short Idea UpdateUpdating Jan 2 post after jobless claims
Surprised we saw such a big move after claims
Highlights extreme market positioning for cuts this year
Higher crude supports higher rates move. position hedges middle east volatility
NFP tmrw is wildcard
Remember NFP is wildly volatile
Prefer buying Feb puts as defined risk trade
ZN currently at technical support and rates at big 4% resistance
Look to fade bounce
5ema serving as resistance on various time frames
10 year t-note, ZN IN 30 MINHello to all tradingview investors, according to my previous analysis I see a great opportunity with good probability, the details are reflected in the chart, greetings and good luck to all.
US 10yr Trend ReversalZN1! Upward Trend Tested
Price action breaks trendline, fails to recapture, and settles at support ~112'05
111 next key level
Higher oil supports move lower/higher yields
Long Feb Expiration Puts define risk thru various economic events (NFP, CPI, Fed)
OPTION SENTIMENTYesterday, a 10-year bond portfolio was created in the market. The goal is to maximize profit when the price is between $109 and $110 by the expiration date of January 17, 2024. This one requires careful observation.
Bond Bears Beware (3+1 reasons)This is a brief video sharing my thoughts why I think T-Notes have bottomed out.
It is not a full, detailed analysis, but rather a quick video sharing thoughts on 3 + 1 patterns.
Two of these patterns are on the MACD-v , one seasonal and as a "bonus" the historical reaction to changes of Fed Policy.
forecasting t-note ZN in 15 min Hello to all tradingview investors, according to my previous analysis, I see a great sales opportunity with good probability, the details are reflected in the graph, greetings and good luck to all
T-note ZN1! only billy has the power and glory for god's sake!billy-billy-no, soros, rothschild, blackrock, rockie and the creepy ghost of kissinger are pumping money, printing as fools and ripping the market off. Therefore we see the t-note really overbought.
Just do the same like these evils and sell puts on ZN1! january contract at 110,25 strike price and fvckthem. Collect the premium.
Notes still in a bear market Even though the ZN 10yr notes look like they want to reverse higher (lower yields) we can't forget how bearish this long term trend is. While below 109'05 the bears remain in control
ZN1! only billy has the power and glory for god's sake!billybillyno, soros, rothschild, rockie-feller, larry pink and the rest of pedoyews elites that run the world are pumping the t-note as they print money as fools to later dump it. Do not be silly and buy puts options at 108,50 or sell calls at 110,50 on JAN 2024 contract and fvckthem
T-Notes rally Looking for T-Notes to continue the rally in coming months:
It looks like it ended a 5 waves pattern
There is a divergence on the MACD between wave 3 and 5
Their is the 10 year S2 at 105 and an untested demand zone
Historical number of shorts on the T-Notes ( COT: Reportable Non-Commercial Net Positions (Futures Only))
Lower inflation and potential economic effects of such a rapid increase in rates should make rates go down
December is usually the worst month of the year for treasuries but 2024 should be a good year for bonds.
10-Year Bond Option SentimentAnalysis of yesterday's CME options market transactions shows that the market participants are positive about the prospects of the long bonds, betting on its growth to $111.5 within 20-30 days.
The Power Of Option Analysis. Sentiment on 10-year bonds.Another reason to get involved in options research analysis. Yesterday and last Friday, 10-year bonds options contracts on the CME were found which have a predictive component in the form of sharp price movement in any direction. Today's 10-Year Bonds chart has fully realized this sentiment, allowing the most informed participants to capitalize well. And did you make money on today's Bond rally?
Bonds - Bullish Quarterly Bias I am seeing a bullish '22 model on Bonds with a clear Original consolidation. I am bullish on bonds for the rest of the quarter. As a result, I am leaning bullish on all assets that directly correlate with bonds & bearish on assets that indirectly correlate with bonds including yields.
10 year note Trade4 hour chart: TrendCloud is up
1 hour chart: TrendCloud is up
CCI is above +100
15 minute demand zone
Stop is 1% Risk
Target is 2:1
