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10 Year T-Note Futures

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ZN1! trade ideas

U.S. Economy Less Interest Rate SensitiveDespite the fastest rise in interest rates since 1981, and an inverted yield curve where short-term rates are much higher than long-term bond yields, the United States has not (at least yet) experienced the recession forecast by the vast majority of market pundits and economists. Why not? The relatively few contrarians that did not forecast a recession, including myself, had many reasons for a more optimistic view. However, the most critical reason appears to have been an appreciation of how the U.S. economy has changed over decades and become much less sensitive to interest rates. In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. economy was driven by housing and manufacturing. The only choice to finance a home was the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, provided by a savings and loan institution, that deliberately borrowed short-term from savers and lent long-term, taking considerable interest rate and yield curve risk. Further, there was no such thing as financial futures or interest rate swaps to allow for the efficient hedging of interest rate risk. Fast forward to the modern economy of the 2020s. The U.S. is an economy driven by the service sector, and services are considerably less sensitive to interest rate swings than housing and automobiles. Home mortgages come in every size and flavor, from floating rates to fixed rates. Mortgages are originated by specialists and then packaged and sold to pensions, endowments and investors willing to take the risk. There are no savings and loan institutions. Financial futures, swaps and options are available for efficient hedging and management of interest rate risk. In short, the U.S. economy does not dance to interest rates like it once did. Make no mistake, though; interest rate shifts have a profound impact on asset values, from equities to bonds, to housing. It is just that the impact on the real economy is much more subdued than it once was, and a rise in rates does not automatically mean a recession is around the corner. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by CME_Group
Are yields about to blow out?The July monthly close in 10-year futures edged through rising trendline support, a level aligning with a 4.0% yield (highlighted with the yellow shaded ellipse). Is Treasury weakness through the end of July a precursor of continued selling and a blowout in yields? The CME's FedWatch Tool shows only a 20% probability the Federal Reserve hikes in September. Given resilient growth in the U.S. and shrinking Initial Jobless Claims, are those odds too low? The fear would be this probability rises to 50%. In such a case, 10-year futures would have incurred continued selling, finding added weakness due to the trend line break. Although there is additional support from a trendline from March 2002 and the Q4 2007 rally that will try to buoy selling, the Treasury complex is at a critical inflection point and a continued breakdown (or rising yields) would become a direct headwind to the risk-landscape, likely creating downward pressure in equity indices and precious metals. In the coming days, ISM Non-Manufacturing data for July is released Thursday at 9:00 am CT. This measures the services sector which has been extremely resilient and a source of stubborn inflation. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls for July are due at 7:30 am CT. The job market as remained tight, supporting wages, another factor of inflation. If these data points come in hotter than expected, one would imagine the 10-year sees continued selling. Regardless of the outcome, traders must keep an eye on 10-year futures in order to keep a pulse on the risk-landsacpe. www.tradingview.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZN1!
by bill_blue_line
Getting Long on Long Duration..US 10-year note futures look primed for significant upside in the coming quarters as rates peak and the global economy rolls over. Weakening China economy already a sign of coming deflation while the lagged effects of rapid rate hikes in the US economy haven't even kicked in yet. Have a look at the usual signs of a topping business cycle. Highs in homebuilders and consumer discretionary stocks + massive inverted yield curve. You have 110 support on the 10-year going back quite a ways and the last time the COT was this out of whack, it marked a major low in bonds. 5% on 90-day bills (Money Funds) has also traditionally marked a peak in short-term rates. So $2k of downside vs. $30k+ upside. Excellent, just excellent R/R on this trade. Scaling into longs...
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by kaotic363