ZO1! trade ideas
Sneaky Oat Bulls Kept This One Quiet!
A solid month for Oats! Sneaky Oat bulls have enjoyed a very rewarding month, but will it last? Oats tapped out at dual resistance yesterday at (1), where inside trendline (A) and 50% Fib level cross (1) taken from the highs of March 2014 and the lows of August 2016. A yearly rising wedge (bearish reversal) pattern (A & B) in this monthly time frame stands out a mile, and the bears are just hoping this wedge pattern continues to form. They might be in for a bit of luck, at least for the short term. The wedge is perfectly located at the bottom of a trend that began back in early 2014, which tends to perform better. And with overbought signals screaming at us on the lower daily time frame, we can expect at the very least a breather from this relentless rally.
Oats looking to breakout of bottomOats seems to be following wheat in that there is a similar bottoming pattern occurring that has been going on for several years now. And up angled wedge which has trend lines dating back to 2006 forming is reaching its pinnacle. There is a lot more action to the upper side of the triangle compared to the lower so I think the break out direction will be most likely to the upside. Short term target is along the fib levels at 321 and 357 (which also form zones of resistance) are achievable over the next 2 or so years. Long term I’ve put in an optimistic trend line which is indicated in purple. Let’s see if it holds.
Weekly Oat Futures ReversalComplex overlapping corrective structure is defined by the orange median line study. Mathematical symmetry and momentum divergence at blue line $319 can signal price exhaustion as this level has been tested 3 times.
The final swing looks to be developing in 5 waves of (c) and a break of wave 4 signals a reversal with a turn down in momentum target red line wave B at $255 with a break measuring black line wave (B) for the entire swing at $224'4.
BUTTERFLY HARMONIC, ZO1! OATSPOTENTIAL BUTTERFLY HARMONIC FORMING OATS FUTURES. WATCH REACTION ON COMPLETION , IF REVERSAL PATTERN FORMS. LONG!!
OATS (WEEKLY CHART)Been patiently waiting to go long on this commodity after monitoring the activity amongst the Smart money Hedgers and the Funds etc. over the past month.
Bought at 301, stop at 289, First target at 318 Second at 328. TF = Short Term.
Oats short @ 287.15stop @ 297.30 target 269.47
if the trade moves against us 2nd position @ 288.75 and 3rd @ 290.99
March Oats Head and ShouldersOats is rounding out that last shoulder for this H&S Neckline must be broken at 284 for this pattern to evolve. Minimum target for this setup is just above S2 at 268. Significant support comes in at 278'2 at S1.
The FUTURE High / Low price swing dates for ZO1! (Oats)These are the FUTURE dates for ZO1! with the
highest probability for experiencing a price
swing high or low. Apply your own indicator(s)
to determine the price swing direction.
July Oats Bearish CypherOats coming off of down channel and rising. Hit downtrend RSI. Watching for break of this mark for further upside. Oats has just crossed 20 day MA and stayed above. Next upside target is R1 at 244'4
May Oats Head and ShouldersMay Oats has built out the last shoulder of an H&S today. Downside target is now to break neckline at S1 260'4. Oats went under the 20 day MA, which deems it bearish . S2 would be its minimal move.
Oats Head and ShouldersMay Oats maybe creating a head and shoulders. R1 and 20 day MA becomes resistance at 269'4. Neckline comes in around pivot at 260. Since MA is so close to R1 this market may break and stay above MA. If this happens for another bull move, we would need the next day for confirmation.
Oats Bearish Shark Elliot WaveOats in bullish wedge pattern. Watching for direction, but projecting bearish Shark with Elliot Wave. Expecting a little lower RSI before new run. New pivots have formed.
March Oats Elliot Wave ProjectionMarch Oats may be setting up for an Elliot Wave upward move. We saw this same setup last year about this same time. Grains are bullish right now and the old adage is Oats leads the way. We suspect it will use the 20 day moving average as a jumping off point for the next move up.
Oats Bullish ButterflyMarch Oats continues to sink. All harmonics points to a Bullish Butterfly. End point would put us back a few months to a low of 200. Uptrend has been broken. Next downside target for bears is S3 at 238. Suspect pull back around that area before continued downward momentum, if that happens at all. RSI would be oversold by S3. There was significant selling at 268 and 269 so any pull back would have a lot of headway at those numbers.
Oats Possible H&SMarch Oats seems to be trying to build out a Head and Shoulders pattern. Pivot right now has become support for a possible up move for last shoulder. Upside target 278'4. There is also a Bullish Gartely here unless Oats drastically collapses.
Could move well above 270Long term resistance in that area BUT was weakened with the break above earlier in the yr. the fibs of the entire low to high move coupled with most recent retrace o me suggest we could see the 1.272%-1.618% extension areas (349-400) IF we see a further break above that critical 270 area.
