OatsMay Oats doesn't really know what its doing. Still looking for this market to trade down to the 38.2% level before continuing up. This would mark the Elliot Wave position 4 to move higher, fill gap and complete the Elliot Wave. Tomorrow might be a down day to complete our mark as markets turned today short.
ZO1! trade ideas
OatsMarch Oats touched the Gap and then pulled back to an encompassing bearish candle and choose Scenario 1 of my comments Friday. Look for more sideways to down movement to the 38.2% area. This would create the Elliot Wave position 4 before more upside to this market. April Oats did a similar pull back and chart makeup.
OatsMarch and May Oats are rejecting lows and progressing upward towards the final gap. I have changed projection from Cypher to Butterfly with extension reaching into the gap. We also have an Elliot Wave 1-5 setup here.
Scenario 1
Oats may take a run to bottom of gap Monday, retrace to 38.2% and then continue through gap, or reject next week to retracement, and then continue last leg. Overbought levels are high and the CCI is turning around.
Scenario 2
Oats continues and fills gap, then retraces and completes leg 5 and double tops, where we will have a sell opportunity.
March Oats rose from bullish flagMarch Oats rose today off of bullish flag and stopped at Gartley 78.6% of the XA leg. This may turn into a Butterfly with upward progression to 251'2 or fail and move lower. Oats has major weekly resistance at 243, but once moved out of Gartley, potential for butterfly should be intact.
March Oats Bullish SetupMarch Oats is creating a bullish flag. Open interest is falling with market in consolidation. Look for upside movement to 236 to create Gartley pattern. If Gartley holds possible falter back down to 226'2 and 220'4 where wedge support is. If not, look for further upside potential to create a butterfly pattern to 251'2 and butterfly extension to 263'4. There is still a gap to fill at 254'2 from the weekly chart. Large resistance to overcome created back in April 18 at 243'2 which this market hit and fell back from.
March Oats rallied backMarch Oats rallied back today wiping out the past 5 days of up and down. Looking for higher prices Wednesday and into the week. Might finally start to progress and complete position 3 of the Elliot Wave and top of Butterfly. 3/1 Gann Line still holding as support. Rising RSI and MacD show progress.
2017 March Oats creating a Bullish Cypher PatternMarch Oats may form a bullish Cypher in the coming weeks. Look for retracement between 38.2 and 61.8, then rebound to 113 - 141.4 percent of the XA leg. If it falters and continues to 78.6 or below this retracement, pattern may change to a Bullish Butterfly.
March Oats finally correctedMarch 2017 Oats finally retraced back to the 50% level of the last move. Look for rebound around the 50-61.8 level. Oats is still overbought, so potential to move sideways or further down from 61.8-78.6 possible. Still bullish to fill gaps from last year. Next move to 256 if bulls can keep control.
Oats futures: Go long the front month futuresUse a stop loss under yesterday's low, risk 1% max, and aim for a 10% rally from here.
Commercial traders have been increasing long positions, and the chart is very bullish, and outperformed most commodities in the previous session, so this is a very attractive setup.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.