ZS1! trade ideas
Week 42: How high can it go?Weekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 41: 12 to 16 October 2020
This is the second time for ZSX2020 flying into the unknown area.
Normally in this scenario, I will long at the RBS area; however, now it's a bit late for that.
How high can it go? we do not have the data, again, it's best to wait and see until the price dives below $1,047.
This week no trade call, just watched and we can focus on forex or other asset classes.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Week 41: Quick short on ZSX 2020Weekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 40: 05 to 09 October 2020
So far the price failed to make a Higher High and still lingering at $1,020 area.
Based on the Price Action, it is now a good sign to do short.
Should the price dropped lower than our Take Profit level, then we anticipate the price will go below $1,000 next week.
My personal trade call:
Sell Limit: $1,019
Stop Loss: $1,029
Take Profit: $1,003
Risk Rewards Ratio: 1.62R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Smart money adds to extreme soybean shorts According to last weeks commitment of traders (COT) report which covers positions held amongst three groups of traders (Commercial hedgers more commonly known as the Smart Money hedgers, Non-commercials and Non-reportables) through Tuesday the 29th September showed the Smart Money is still aggressively shorting Soybeans along with agriculture commodities in general. Their total shorts against agriculture contracts hit another multi-year low, with extreme bearish readings on Soybeans, in particular, totalling -218,443 contracts at (3) (previous week -201,737 contracts).
Non-commercial (funds etc) positions totalled 239,872 contracts, an increase of 21,306 contracts from the week prior. And Non-reportables (small speculators) totalled -21,429 contracts (previous week -16,829).
It’s important to note that when commercial hedgers reach multi-year extremes, as they are now, they have a tendency to drive the markets. In contrast to that, non-commercials who typically always take the opposite side to the commercials usually get caught out at these likely turning points. From a technical perspective, the soybean weekly chart suggests we are toying with multi-year overhead resistance zone (R) and weekly prices are being capped by the 400 period moving average, which has proven to be a reliable source at turning points.
Smart money trade set-ups, such as this one are for the mid to long term.
We are getting close to trend changeIt has been a long time since my last Soybean forecast. It is time to pay attention to this market. It is setting up for the decline. Commercials are heavily selling, the seasonal tendency is to the downside, and Insider Accumulation is turning bearish. So, if on Monday we get below Friday’s low, that will be a sell signal. However, it seems like it will take more time to form some pattern. We may see a very short-term rally followed by a sell signal formation. Don’t hurry and wait for confirmation. We have a good setup, but timing matters a lot in this business.
Week 40: ZSX 2020 Bullish resumptionWeekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 40: 28 September to 02 October 2020
After a long rally, market needs to take a breathe before continuing the journey to the North.
Your question would be, this time how high the price will be?
As a trader, we do not speculate, but we react based on the price movement.
Let's put it simply, if there is no Higher High (HH), then we anticipate the price will go lower next week.
If there is a HH, then the trend will continue.
This week, we wait until the price reach to our last week Take Profit point, that's where we will LONG ZSX2020.
My personal trade call:
Buy Limit: $991
Stop Loss: $980
Take Profit: $1,020
Risk Rewards Ratio: 2.51R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
ZSH2021-ZSF2021There is a good opportunity in Soybeans complex. However this bear spread is a bit more aggresive as the price could go as low as -50. Therefore this is not suitable for position trade, but to put SL to the market to minimalize your loss in case of another fall. But there is a good potential with reduced risk. 4:1
The probability of the succes is on our side, if nothing really suprising happen in USA/China trade war. Because China is the biggest buyer of US soybeans to feed their pigs mostly.
Soybeans is as almost commodities the market with strong contango. In other words the further contracts should be more pricey, because there are costs for storage, insurance, risk etc. Negative prices cannot last long in the mid/long term as describe above. The spread just need time before supply and demand find their equal value for both sides.
Week 39: ZSX 2020 is into the Unknown Weekly analysis for ZSX2020
Week 39: 21 September to 25 September 2020
Currently the price is roaming in an unchartered territory, we have no reference on how far the price will go higher.
Instead of speculating on how high it will go, as a trader, we take decision on a signal that has a higher degree of certainty.
Therefore, we are setting a Sell Stop rather than hoping the price will go higher to unknown area.
This week, if the price hits our Sell Stop, it means the price will change it's direction.
My personal trade call:
Sell Stop: $1,034.5
Stop Loss: $1,048.5
Take Profit: $991.0
Risk Rewards Ratio: 3.48R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee .
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Week 38: ZSX 2020 is breaking the limit?I am going to layout three signs for this week for ZSX2020:
(1) The limit breaker at $1,005 zone, if today the price is closed at $1,005 or higher, then the sky is the limit.
It will soar to the unchartered territory, no reference to the historical price as to how high it will go to the north to meet the white walker.
(2) The mid-zone at $998 to $994.
This zone is a resting zone, if the price come and visit this area, it is likely the price will look for momentum to go higher.
In point #1, if the limit is broken, it will fly immediately to the sky. However, in point #2, the price will make a pullback first to bounce higher.
(3) The confirmation at $983.
The overall outlook now is Super Bullish, it doesn't matter which Time Frame you are looking at the price.
The momentum candle is super strong, we only can safely say that the trend is changing, when the price is closed at $983 or lower.
Anything above $983, the price is still with Buyer territory.
No trade this week as there is no confirmation, even we can say that right now is still bullish, BUT it gives us a dilemma.
=> If we want to long, we do not know our exit strategy as there is no reference. It could be a false bullish move; after going $1,005 then closed below $1,000. Then we will be caught in a false move and the price will plunge very fast.
=> if we want to short, we are against the trend and momentum, this is also a risky move.
Therefore, for this week, we better sit tight and watch. I will update again in mid-week (Wednesday) if there is a confirmation move.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
SOJA BEANS ! I RECOMMEND YOU BEARISH MOVEMENT! Hey traders, please support my idea with LIKE or comment if you agree!
GOOD LUCK!
Week 37: ZSX 20202 is getting close to our Sell LimitThe bullish week for ZSX 2020 will come to an end, the price is approaching the Supply Zone soon.
If you are following the LONG position last week, this week is time to exit from your trade and switch to sell.
Despite until today there is still no sign of slowing down, but historically $975 will hold its level.
And here is my personal trade opinion on ZSX 2020 (Same as last week):
Sell Limit at $975
Stop Loss at $985
Take Profit at $960
Risk Reward Ratio = 1.4R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Soybean and Wyckoff AnalysisBullish Wyckoff Analysis.
Background:
After a series of Sell Down in Soybean, we finally see a accumulation and breakout of the chart signal that probably telling us the sell off is over.
The composite man has probably done their accumulation phase and now is the time to bring the real rally out from water.
We see Gold and Silver flying to sky, and why not the commodities now with the fact of Falling Dollar ?
In all the 3x Previous rally
are followed with relatively Higher
Volume. Each Pull back forming
a Higher Low and
showing a Up trend
line is FORMED.
Wyckoff Analysis Events
PS Preliminary Support
SC Selling Climax
AR Automatic Rally
ST Secondary Test
Spring Test
SOS Sign of Strength
LPS Last Point Of Support
BU Back-Up (Small Pull Back After SOS)
Entry : 890-900 (Range)
Target : 980 in Nov (Before the ZSX2020 Contract Expired)
Stop : 860
From Source
www.wyckoffanalytics.com
I am not affiliate of wyckoffanalytics.com and just a follower of Wyckoff Method. Thank.
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Soybean Trying to Break OutChina Behind on Imports
Dryness threatening new crops hurting supply
Worthy Gamble
soybean bullish trends & seasonal tendancies bullishnessThe seasonal tendancies coming...
We're a the resistance level where we wait for the retracement at 910
Before the market continues bullish
- first target at 1000 THEN see the price structure for next leg
