Soybean 20-Week SMA Has Rolled Up Suddenlyand it was retested this week. The Rollover LTE indicator (see script below) helps show why the 20 SMA (white smooth line) rolled up so sharply after steadily declining since June. The current price is above the sharply-dropping weekly closing price from 20 weeks ago (white jagged line), therefore, the 20 SMA has achieved a positive slope in short order.
The indicator suggests a close above the 50 week SMA (smooth blue line) which is at 1499’6 would be very bullish . This is because the 20 has been closed above and the slopes of the 20 and 50 are both positive. Closing above the 50 is the last of 4 rollover conditions that need to be satisfied to likely result in a significant pump like those pointed to by the white arrows.
A close below the white and blue jagged lines near the red target would cause all 4 criteria to be met for a bearish trade ie . price would be below a downsloping 20 SMA and below a downsloping 50 SMA .
There is a time cycle highlighting that the previous two Novembers have been good times to buy.
We bounced off of the 9-week SMA and 20-week SMA confluence this week and we’re now challenging the positive-sloping 100-week SMA going into next week.
I have a trend-following indicator that was giving a buy signal 3 days ago but the 9/20 confluence with trendlines and a support level looked like a magnet below so I held off. We've now facilitated the auction at that level which resulted in a bounce rather than further downside and I'm hoping my trend-following indicator was right, just early.
I’m bullish as long as we stay above the 9/20 confluence level of 1409ish
