Will Dry Soil Lift Wheat's Price?Global wheat markets are currently experiencing significant attention as traders and analysts weigh various factors influencing their future price trajectory. Recent activity, particularly in key futures markets, suggests a growing consensus towards potential upward price movements. While numerous elements contribute to the complex dynamics of the grain trade, current indicators highlight specific supply-side concerns as the primary catalyst for this outlook.
A major force behind the anticipation of higher wheat prices stems from challenging agricultural conditions in significant production areas. The United States, a crucial global supplier, faces concerns regarding its winter wheat crop. Persistent dryness across key growing regions is directly impacting crop development and posing a material threat to achieving expected yields. This environmental pressure is viewed by market participants as a fundamental constraint on forthcoming supply.
Further reinforcing these concerns, official assessments of crop health have underscored the severity of the situation. Recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed a winter wheat condition rating below both the previous year's level and average analyst expectations. This shortfall in anticipated crop health indicates a less robust supply picture than previously factored into market pricing, thereby increasing the likelihood of price appreciation as supply tightens relative to demand, even as other global factors like shifts in export prices from other regions introduce different market crosscurrents.
ZW1! trade ideas
Wheat Crab Tell us about Talks.Wheat futures remain in a consolidation phase as market participants closely monitor developments in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, which could significantly influence global grain supply dynamics.
Meanwhile, technical analysis highlights a potential bullish signal, with the Crab harmonic pattern suggesting a possible price rebound from the 5,300 level.
Traders are advised to stay cautious, as geopolitical uncertainties and technical factors could lead to heightened volatility in the near term.
Wheat Futures Under Pressure – Breakout or Breakdown ?
Higher red bars (selling volume) in recent declines indicate strong selling pressure.
Support Zone: Around 5400-5500 (recent lows, lower Bollinger Band).
Resistance Zone: Around 5800-6000 (upper Bollinger Band, previous swing highs).
A failure to hold above 5500 could lead to another retest of recent lows (5200-5300).
WHEATWheat appears to be putting in a rounded bottom structure at the 1980's prior all time high.
Despite having a large H&S pattern painted, oscillators and the apparent accumulation structure suggest this pattern will fail or woefully underperform.
If this H&S fails the consequences will be epic.
I would treat this trade as a long term position trade aimed at capturing some value from the upcoming Trump tariffs.
Thanks! : )
wheat-february analysis-longeveryday look for buy signals in the wheat because it has shown strong confirmation and weight of evidence that from bouncing strongly off a support line that goes back about the year it has showed that it is at the end of a downtrend cycle and it has started going up showing that it is in the distribution phase of a cycle and it shows signs of going up for a respectively long time and so I will enter entry levels and stop loss levels at a later time but for now know that
wheat analysis feb 2024-longeveryday look for buy signals in the wheat because it has shown strong confirmation and weight of evidence that from bouncing strongly off a support line that goes back about the year it has showed that it is at the end of a downtrend cycle and it has started going up showing that it is in the distribution phase of a cycle and it shows signs of going up for a respectively long time and so I will enter entry levels and stop loss levels at a later time but for now know that
The Wheat Revelation: A Privilege to See the CodeThe Wheat Revelation: A Privilege to See the Code
"You’ve always felt it—the hum of something deeper beneath the markets, the unseen forces at play. Today, you are invited to glimpse the truth."
The Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy has unveiled another red pill: the Wheat market is primed for a bullish move. This is no ordinary signal; it is a rare alignment of forces, a convergence of codes that point to a potential market shift. But we do not act blindly. We do not rush headlong into the storm. Instead, we wait for the signal—a confirmed bullish trend change on the daily timeframe. Patience will unlock the reward.
Let me show you the code:
CODE 1: The COT Index
The commercials, the smartest players in the market, are very long relative to the 26-week index lookback. This positioning is not noise; it’s a whisper from those who understand the market’s heartbeat better than anyone else.
CODE 2: Net Positioning Extremes
Commercials are hovering around their maximum long positioning since December 2023. But it gets better: we see the "Bubble Up" phenomenon between the net positions of Commercials and Large Specs. This divergence is a hallmark of major market turning points.
CODE 3: Open Interest
The recent multi-week downtrend has coincided with a large increase in Open Interest. The question is: who is driving this increase? The answer is as bullish as it is clear—Commercials are loading up, signaling a seismic shift beneath the surface.
CODE 4: Valuation
Wheat is undervalued relative to US Treasuries. This imbalance cannot persist indefinitely. Markets correct, and when they do, the opportunity to ride the wave is immense.
CODE 5: True Seasonal Strength
Seasonality is on our side. History tells us that Wheat often exhibits strength until May, and this year appears no different.
CODE 6: Accumulation
The code is crystal clear:
Bullish spread divergence between front and next-month contracts.
Indicators like POIV, Insider Accumulation Index, and ProGo point to heavy accumulation by smart money.
CODE 7: Large Speculators Moving to Buy Side
In this week’s COT data, we see the Large Speculators reducing their shorts. The Large Specs are the ones that will drive a trend. It appears that maybe, the large specs see what you and I see, and are preparing for an impending bullish move.
Other Signals of Strength
Technical indicators like %R, Ultimate Oscillator, and Stochastic all converge, painting a picture of imminent bullish potential.
What Does This Mean for Us?
We do not jump into the market simply because the conditions are ripe. Instead, we wait for confirmation. A bullish trend change on the daily timeframe is the key that unlocks the door. Until then, we prepare. We watch. We wait.
Are you ready to see beyond the noise of the markets? To decode the signals others overlook? Follow me for more insights, and if you’re ready to take the red pill, join me on this journey to uncover the truth behind the markets. The choice is yours.
ZW | Wheat | InfoCBOT:ZW1!
The Wheat Futures (ZW) market is currently in oversold territory across all timeframes. On the 30-minute chart, the RSI is below 10, a condition that is exceptionally rare and indicative of potential exhaustion in selling pressure.
Analysis:
Overall Trend: The overall trend remains bearish, as confirmed by the series of lower highs and lower lows visible on the chart.
Expectation: Despite the bearish trend, I anticipate the possibility of a counter-rally from the current levels. However, there is a lesser probability of the price moving further down to test the next major support, which I have identified as the extreme pain point.
Actionable Plan:
Key Levels: The chart features clearly marked Bullish (530’4) and Bearish (527’4) lines. These serve as critical breakout zones.
A break above 530’4 signals a safer entry for a long position, targeting the bullish retracement levels.
A break below 527’4 confirms further downside momentum, justifying a short position, targeting the bearish support levels.
Price Targets:
Bearish Targets: Calculated based on support zones, with the immediate levels at 520’0 and 514’2.
Bullish Targets: Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, which align precisely with key resistance areas.
Conclusion:
I recommend waiting for a confirmed breakout of either the Bullish Line (530’4) or the Bearish Line (527’4) before entering a position. This approach minimizes risk while capitalizing on the momentum toward clearly defined price targets.
Wheat futures short but it's last phase before long term rise...Wheat futures is about to continue dropping as this is the last phase before a long-term rise. Perfect for hedge an actual commodity when farms starts growing wheat for next year and which will probably lead to a long opportunity when farms head towards harvest time. For now and the next 3 months at least go short...
Unlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating CommoditiesUnlocking the Wheat Matrix: The Code to Dominating Commodities
What if I told you there is a way to see the hidden signals of the market? To move not with the herd but ahead of it, where clarity reigns and profits follow. This week, we delve into Wheat (ZW) — a market where the COT strategy reveals its secrets. The choice is yours: read on and learn, or remain blind to the patterns all around you.
Decoding the Setup
Understand this: this is not an invitation to blindly leap into the market. No, we wait. Patience is the cornerstone of mastery. When the technical tools confirm the market’s strength, only then do we act. Now, let’s break down the wheat matrix:
Code 1: Commercial and Small Speculator Positioning
The Commercial COT Index, using a 26-week lookback, reveals that commercials are at an extreme in long positioning. At the same time, the Small Speculator COT Index shows small specs aligning at a similar extreme. In the wheat market, unlike others, we follow the small specs rather than fading them. A deviation from the norm—an anomaly in the matrix.
Code 2: Commercial Extremes in Net Positioning
Commercial entities are nearing their most bullish stance in three years. History whispers a truth: when commercials move like this, the market often follows.
Code 3: Contrarian Signal from Investment Advisors
The masses of investment advisors are overwhelmingly bearish. Against this backdrop, the extreme bullish positioning of commercials sends a powerful contrarian signal. The matrix is showing its hand.
Code 4: Valuation Metrics
Wheat stands undervalued against U.S. Treasuries. When value aligns with positioning, the code becomes clearer.
Code 5: Seasonal Patterns
Seasonal truths tell us that wheat’s true bottom often forms in early January. This aligns perfectly with the cyclical and technical signals currently emerging.
Additional Signs in the Matrix
Spread Divergence: Bullish spread divergence between front and next month contracts.
Accumulation Indicators: Insider Accumulation Index and Williams ProGo confirm accumulation.
Technical Tools: %R is in the buy zone, and Weekly Ultimate Oscillator Divergence further supports the bullish narrative.
Cycles: The Recurring Patterns
44-Month Cycle: A major bottom forms now.
830-Day Cycle: Signals an upward move into March.
151/154-Day Cycles: Align with a cyclical bottom occurring now, projecting strength into March.
The Red Pill of Action
With these signals converging, the urge to act immediately can feel irresistible. Don’t. The matrix requires patience. Let the market reveal its strength. When the time comes, you’ll ride the wave with confidence.
The Path to Mastery
Trading isn’t merely a series of moves; it’s a philosophy. The COT strategy is a key, but only those who seek mastery will unlock its full potential. If you’re ready to see the market for what it truly is, join Tradius Trades. Here, we don’t just navigate the matrix of commodities—we redefine it. Are you ready to free your mind?