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WHEAT MNT: 100%+ gains and TP 3 000 USD going vertical(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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WHEAT MNT: TP 3 000 USD going vertical(NEW)(SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: WHEAT MNT chart review
::: chart is LOG SCALE
::: commodity super cycle in progress
::: 5 waves bullish sequence in progress
::: Price target in 2022 is 3 000 USD
::: global inflation driving prices
::: also global warming heavy impact
::: geopolitics triggering vertical market
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD BUY DIPS
::: 12/24 months as global economy
::: this is a long-term bullish market
::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS
::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup
::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP BULLS is 3000 USD
::: 150% upside from current market price
::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS)
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD
::: bullish super cycle in coffee market
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 1000USD fresh demand zone
::: 3000USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Breakout move on Wheat continues with Limits and Limit UpsWheat broke out of a range around Feb 23, retested and never looked back.
Multiple limits and multiple limit ups.
Likely driven mostly by Ukraine being a large exporter/producer of Wheat.
Those with multi-decades of market experience might have seen these before but I haven't.
During the March 2020 we've seen limits being hit but not like, everyday (or almost) a limit is hit.
And limit ups.... in daily candle sticks these will show up as dots
Amazing to observe, even better for those who participated in gains
but, scary what the implications of these to food and beverage prices...
Hard to say whether this will continue or reverse at some point (when) I definitely don't and observing from the sidelines.
Hopefully it stabilizes along with everything else.
GLOBAL RECESSIONWe are reaching extremely high Futures prices in the commodities sector. It's a bit worrying especially since these prices are approaching 2008 levels, some are higher.
We might see a global recession, and it can be triggered by a black swan event (The Russian war could have already started this catalyst) and a global Inflation that doesn't seem to slow down.
So what to do? try to time a crash? Play shorts/put options?
Personally, I think it's better to hold cash and buy up stocks/etfs that become dirt cheap.
You have higher chances of making serious gains buying the BIG DIP than trying to pull a BIG SHORT
Here is Wheat Future's monthly chart.
You can see that Wheat is reaching 2008 peak recession prices.
Wheat also gained almost 60% in the last month alone. This means that the price of food HAS to go up = More Inflation.
Oil is doing the same thing.
y
Copper hit all-time high
20.000 $ profit per contract on wheatswing trade on wheat moved up 400 points (50$ per point)
the original setup was a strong COT buy signal
in order to protect the limit up position i am exiting trades in the morning
and rebuy them after the pullback either at the POC or above a triangle high
similar pattern on corn...
When technicals fail, revert back to fundamentalsWheat has been trending upwards with a channel/megaphone pattern so far. The prices were increasing rapidly and near the channel boundary, it exploded. When it could end up is very questionable but it's not hard to understand the recent price increase is purely based on fear.
Ukraine and Russia contribute to a total of about 26% to the Wheat market, even if we assume they completely vanished, it's only reasonable to guess the price should not go more than 26% from the upper channel boundary. But the markets are not rational, and during conflicting and desperate times it may increase up to 50% to the maximum wheat price recorded ever. I hope this would not happen because what happened later was the global financial crisis, and history could very well be repeated.
If you have access to options, buy some puts on wheat. When markets settle the price will crash spectacularly and you can sit with a lot of cash.
Do not short a parabolic market unless you have a lot of money. Buy puts on the parabolic market because all curves become lines in trades. Every parabolic move is short-lived.
A Ukraine war is bullish for wheatWheat futures are showing a constant higher lows ahead of a bullish catalyst. That catalyst is a war between Russia and the Ukraine. I can get into any questions as to why I believe the current information suggests Russia will invade upon request in the comments.
This is bullish for wheat futures, The Ukraine is the number 5 ranked wheat exporter globally its wheat compromises 8% of global wheat exports. Most of the Ukraine's wheat production is in the east which would be totally cut off during a major conflict. To make matters worse Russia is the number 1 wheat exporter in the world exporting 17.7% of total global wheat exports. In the event of war Russia would likely be cut off from the swift payment system which would stop most of its international transactions causing massive supply chain issues with the wheat market. These factors in combination with the constant lower highs makes for very bullish conditions.
ZW long due to everything's happening in the world right now, wheat is just as MANY markets is gonna get highly effected by the situation and it has showed that in the chart.
as we can see the price has had a really good volume, although it's rejected but it's only the start of a trend not the end of it or something, but one sure thing is that its effect is absolute and that rejection is gonna get the market to a point where it's gonna do a pullback to get some momentum and then to just get on the rocket.
this is the weekly chart so the profit is gonna be really good but the risk is higher so get a really good entry and hold on to it.
Food shortages entering back into playThe playbook for manoeuvring - actively adding longs
We can start with a quick review of the general plan for the operation I shall be discussing. I imagine all sitting in longs from earlier in the year are ready to exploit greater freedom of movement which we we will posses a tick above August highs. So to seize the point, our attack is a momentum move, like a sailing boat when we get caught in the wind.
Eyeballing a test of first targets at 900 as early as the yearly close. As can be seen from above, it would be quite wrong to describe these moves here as anything but painful for consumers. Depending on the price action at 900 we are flirting to unlock the GFC highs. We are 23% and counting, time to start swinging the bat!