ZW1! trade ideas
Wheat Has Completed A Bearish Butterfly and AB=CD PatternI had an order set to short 1 pip above the current high of the day and didn't get picked up. I have since moved the order to the high as shown in the chart. Risk:Reward is pretty nice and looking left (further left than on this chart) there is some structure which supports this as a supply zone.
Wheat has been looking pretty bullish so it would probably be advisable to wait for a bearish signal on a lower time frame. Let me know what you think about Wheat!
CBoT wheatThe daily chart shows that price has been moving within the boundaries of a descending price channel until January 4 when price broke out of same channel at the upside. With the break out of price the upper line of the price channel has now changed its character from resistance to support. The zone between, roughly, 410 and 400 is now a supportive region which has been tested back on January 11 and which could be tested one more time before price hikes up.
Still neutral in the range. Trades at equilibriumFrom this setup we can not really decide what to do. It can either was through the thin and flat Kumo cloud, or Kijun holds and then price reverses up quickly. Not an easy call, as my system is a trendfollowing system, while Wheat it's clear Wheat has not been trending since July-August/2016.
Maybe haOscillator gives slightly bigger chance for Kijun to hold. We need few more days to get clarity.
Based on technical setups, Corn is still a better candidate for long in case.
WHEAT | Weekly Chart A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the position similar treatment to that which we might a long option trade.
Maybe it's different this timeObviously we need a break and confirmation, but Heikin-Ashi price action looks different compared to three previous cases, when Wheat could not hold gains at its trading range top, and fell sharply.
If range breaks on top side, bullish price objective will be 470-480.
(Note: market is closed today)
CBoT wheatWheat:
Price has made a decisive move up during the past week and broke out of the descending price channel. The upper line of same price channel has been serving as resistance during the past 6 months and is considered to be support now. We are now looking for a pullback of price towards the supportive zone from where we expect price to make another impulsive move up to the 440 region.
Indecision, inverse divergence, some positive biasWheat market has been struggling to find direction since October. Is it just another consolidation of the long term beari market, or can it be some kind of bottom building?
Weekly:
- Major beartish trend since the July/2012 peak. Ichimoku has been bearish since 2013.
- Market has been consolidatig for almost 4 months now. No lower low since Aug/2016.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is neutral, shows indecision. haDelta crosses above SMA3 but the indicator is stuck at zero. haDelta+ points down, but has no momentum
- MACD is below zero, but no bearish cross right now.
- EWO is bearish, but value ticks higher.
- Bearish supports are: 440 and 455. A weekly close above 455 would open space for a strategic bull market.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, all averages are flat arund 410 level, and Kumo ahead is thin. This means market has not been trending for 52+26 = 78 days.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias now. 7-8th/Dec market failed to continue bearish. After a doji candle we have the second green candle today (with somehow less convincing lower high -> bit of momentum loss). haDelta+ is above zero and points up.
- MACD showed/shows something interesting too: looks like an inverse negative divergence, which means that MACD made a lower low, while price did not. This is often an early bullish signal. Let's see if MACD crosses up, to confirm more bullish force
- EWO is neutral.
While the big picture is still neutral, in short term bearis may step back and bulls may get stronger. With a close above 416 market could retest 440-455 strong supp/res zone.
I am playing the long side (from 407.50), without any serious leverage, and with a relatively tight stop.
Wheat 2008-2010 expanded fractalBeing tracking this since September. Starting a position, as inflection point is so close, that it could reverse the trend totally out of the blue as in June 2010.
-Ideal Tgt @ 50% fib ext by March
-Stop @ 3.00
CBoT WheatWheat:
Price made a very strong move down during Monday's session and broke through our first supportive level. It then tested the pivotal support which held after which price created a 'morning star' pattern which is a reliable reversal pattern.
We keep our bias unchanged bullish. The low of last week at 398.75 has now become pivotal support.
$WHEAT - "La Niña" - The Final Countdown... very strong downward trend. I hope that the severe winter change the trend on the chart.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
OversoldIt can be sold however , we are in lower end of range and it's possible sharp Rallies. Sooo , wait for better time to come before actually trade this asset.
Real buy at 419 breakout.Weekly:
- No real change in big picture since last post, except that Heikin-Ashi shows indecision again.
- MACD still suggests sideaway/corrective move ahead
Daily:
- As expected, first key resistance ard 425 blocked buyers. After two days of hesitation price fell back sharply, even closed below Kijun Sen.
- However bearish price action faded yesterday. No lower low below Kumo cloud.
- Heikin-Ashi gives a buy signal again, but Ichimoku is still neutral: everything is located in a thin flat Kumo.
- EWO keeps its bullish bias
I think it is a minor buy with 399 stop, have some chance for further bullish improvement. Real size buying recommended only if breakout happens above 419!
CBoT wheat continuous long playWheat:
Price made an almost 2% corrective move down during the past week after its strong 5% swing up of the week before that.
We have put a first supportive level at 413 in the chart which was tested twice during the past week and which we would not like to see broken on basis of EOD. We should, however, not be stunned if same support will be penetrated during Monday's and/or Tuesday's trading sessions and even a close below same supportive level will not change our bull scenario as long as our pivotal support at 395 remains unbroken.
The upper ascending trend line has been broken to the upside and is now being tested back as support which we expect to hold with, as mentioned before, a possible penetration during one of the sessions early in the week.
Our bottom line outlook is to the upside with significantly higher prices ahead.
Wheat: We can buy on a breakout of September 22nd's highThis setup should yield a nice up move here, if we see a breakout of this range.
We could enter prematurely, risking a drop under today's low, if the day turns up on Monday as well, but that would be riskier, so if you do it, only take a smaller risk position, like 0.25% exposure.
Today's action accross the board points to a major turning point in the markets, so don't miss out on opportunities like this.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Wheat may have hit its pullbackLooking at 30M chart, it's possible that wheat has made its pullback. The TSI could be finding support at 0 and RSI on 40. Based on next open and if these indicators move up off this support may try a dec wheat call.
Looking at the daily chart, the RSI and TSI look bullish and the ADX with +DMI looks like it could be setting up a change in dominance from down trend.
Daily looks like it hit some resistance at the 23.6% retrace area between the 6/8 high and 8/31 low. I think that price will move up to challenge other areas of retrace as noted on daily chart.
CBoT wheat has a confirmed bottom and a long play is validWheat:
This price chart is showing us TA straight from the text books with an, almost violent, test back down of the support, a repeated and strong knock on the door of resistance at 415 after, eventually, price broke up through its resistance during Friday's session. The long topping tail of Friday's candle is probably a sign that bulls needed a bit of breath after their rally run of Thursday and Friday but it could also be the bode of a bull trap so caution is to be added to caution and disciplined stops have to placed solidly and remain untouched (except for trailing up, obviously). Actually, quite an exciting development of this price during the past week with a confirmation of our call for a bottom and much more upward potential for the future.
Our first target for this price is 450/460 for the end of the coming week or, possibly, the week after.
Our pivotal support level is now 395 and if price would break that low we will have to redo our homework and go back to our drawing board. It is always a good policy to trail up your stop ( never down - in bull move that is) and it is worth remembering that taking profit on (a part of) your position won't make you any poorer.
Wheat may be ready to begin a new trend upWheat, on an 8H chart, has broken through key short term resistance last week. Beginning 9/12, ADX had signaled a period of price consolidation which has lasted until 10/13 when price broke through resistance.
This price action and ADX consolidation is reflected on the daily chart too. It is possible that price may have more upside potential before a pullback happens and an entry long could be attempted
The weekly chart, though it has not broken out of resistance or have had it's TSI and RSI turn positive, these two indicators may be showing some key divergences looking at the 2014/09/22 low and recent 2016/08/29 low. Should these areas of divergence hold, i'm looking for the upper line of resistance to be challenged. A key thing to watch on the weekly ADX is if price does move up does the +DMI cross up over the -DMI and the ADX move up above 20. There are a couple of scenarios that can play out should this happen which include either 1) a new bull trend as upper resistance breaks or 2) a drop off of the upper resistance with the ADX above 20 and the -DMI/+DMI swap signaling a change in dominance.
Q: Is this the beginning of an up trend or just another spike on weekly to touch upper resistance? Hard to tell for now and weekly will hold answer over next couple of months.
For now , I'm looking to enter long with dec wheat call but waiting to see if price pulls back first. Ideally, on the 8H chart, the +DMI and -DMI converge toward each other briefly with price pulling back to moving averages.
Wheat Oct'16 - decision timeConsolidating on long term support line 386 or 412. Will see what unfolds. Would look to buy into 393 level and below.
WHEAT - another pullback from SMAThere's a pullback from the SMA, so wave of 5 is likely going to be continued
Not yet a big move, but impressive given USD strength- As price has been moving sideaway, Ichimoku is turning a bit more neutral from bearish
- Trading in a range, with some short term minor bullish bias now
- Improvements: candle may finally close above Kijun Sen, while haOscillator moves higher above delta. Chikou Span crosses above past candles (weak bullish Chikou/price cross), still needs some momentum to launch it into open space
- EWO is red, slowly ticks higher.
- Key levels: 405+ and 418+. In case buyers gain momentum and break these levels, first target comes as 445.
Strategy: maximum half size long is recommended until further bullish signals. Be careful with longs, as this is pretty much a bottom fishing idea for now.
