WHEAT - another pullback from SMAThere's a pullback from the SMA, so wave of 5 is likely going to be continued
ZW1! trade ideas
Not yet a big move, but impressive given USD strength- As price has been moving sideaway, Ichimoku is turning a bit more neutral from bearish
- Trading in a range, with some short term minor bullish bias now
- Improvements: candle may finally close above Kijun Sen, while haOscillator moves higher above delta. Chikou Span crosses above past candles (weak bullish Chikou/price cross), still needs some momentum to launch it into open space
- EWO is red, slowly ticks higher.
- Key levels: 405+ and 418+. In case buyers gain momentum and break these levels, first target comes as 445.
Strategy: maximum half size long is recommended until further bullish signals. Be careful with longs, as this is pretty much a bottom fishing idea for now.
CBoT wheat has put a long term bottom on the chart and is a longWheat:
We have called for a bottom on this chart during the past week when, during Wednesday's session, price drew a 'double key reversal' on the chart which was an 'engulfing bullish' candle as well and which both are quite powerful reversal patterns. Much to our dissatisfaction we saw price make a strong pull back during the Thursday session but this could be seen as a test back of the support as well, especially since both Thursday and Friday drew higher lows on the chart despite the strong pullback.
We keep our call for a bottom in this market unless we see the pivotal support at 390 broken in which case we will have to reconsider our bull case scenario for now. Still, we would like to see a decisive break of the 415 level to the upside as reconfirmation of our call for a long term tradable bottom in this market. We consider price to be in 'no-man's land' between the 2 essential values of 390 on the downside and 415 on the upside.
CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat:
Nothing much happened during the past week and price has mostly been moving sideways during the week with exception for Friday when price took out its most recent lows at 395/393 after which it recovered and made a very strong 3% rally from its LOD.
We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged. Our bear scenario goes straight into the waste bin if price breaks 411 to the upside.
WHEAT - new low is comingWave of 5 is likely going to be continued, so there's an opportunity to have a hew low in the short term
Bear market with strong positive divergences and a bullish wedgeWheat chart is maybe even more interesting than Corn.
Weekly:
- Very long term bearish trend, and maybe a bearish wedge too.
- Ichimoku is bearish, but price is far below Kijun and Senkou-B, where we have longer term equilibrium at 455
- MACD lines are converging, positive divergence has been built for more than two months in histogram!
- Heikin-Ashi signal is slightly bearish, rather a noise, as price can't make a subst. lower low. What's more, it looks like haDelta and haOscillator have developed quite some bullish divergence too.
By weekly picture I see limited downside, and increasing chance of a local bottom being established.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish until price is below Kijun Sen. But Kijun is catching down quickly. Key level is 411, marked by Kijun and trendline
- Mixed price action in 393-411 range, with no lower low, no higher high either.
Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish today, but it has been quite mixed recently.
- EWO is building a positive divergence. This is what makes me think, there is higher chance to see a break on the upper side.
- ATR (volatility) is extremely low here too.
ZW1! Bears still holding.Traders,
We have a nice oppertunnity on Wheat today. Everything is in the chart.
Good luck!
best regards,
CBoT wheat still waiting for the bottomWheat:
Price has not really been following our preferred path very precisely lately and has been knocking on the doors of the various resistances repeatedly, especially during the past week. Still, the price action as such during the past 3 weeks does not have anything of an impulse and price shyly tried but failed to trade higher. We still believe that price needs to make one more impulsive move to the downside and we keep our bear bias unchanged as such. We currently see a typical 'bear-flag-pattern' develop which would require price to start trading down from Monday or Tuesday onwards immediately and which would guide price to the 370/360 level by first week of October.
WHEAT - wave [v] of 5 startedWe've got a possible wave {iv}, which was ended under the 144 SMA. So, there's an opportunity to have wave {v} of 5 in the short term.
CBoT wheat close to a bottom but not there yetWheat:
Nothing much to add to our last week's outlook on this chart and price has been following our preferred route quite precisely. Price is now approaching the descending resistance trend line at 407 Monday and at 406 Tuesday with an additional and crucial resistance at 411. As long as price does not break the 411 mark to the upside we maintain our bear bias and do not yet call for a bottom in this market. We are close, however.
CBoT Wheat still waiting for the bottom to formWheat:
We keep our short term bias unchanged and we are still anticipating a bit further decline in price. Thus far price has been following our preferred path reasonably well although the minor correction up started a bit earlier than what we would have thought. From here we expect a little more upside move on Tuesday after which we expect price to continue it move to the downside and reach for the 370/350 level after which we will start looking for a pattern to see whether or not the bottom is finally there.
Loss of bearish momentumLooking at Heikin-Ashi signal we may have a local bottom after the serious selloff. Some consolidation or a pull back to 404-410 is possible, but the main structure remains bearish.
Bullish key reversal points are higher at 418 and 438
Christmas wheatieswheat has been pushed down hard on large crop volume and seems like good time to take a shot, will use a calendar spread to reduce cash required
CBoT wheat waiting for the bottomWheat:
Price took an impressive beating of 8.5% for the week with especially Friday's session being very weak with a 4% decline in value. The move of Friday was very decisive and volatile which is a very strong indication that more decline is to be expected during the coming week. There is no tradable bottom in this market just as yet and we will need to allow price another 7-10% decline before we can think of a tradable low. Even though we now feel that we have a clear vision on what is to come it is by far too late to entertain a short play but at the same time it is too early to consider a long play. Lean back, relax, wait & see.
Be careful with continous contract charts!The latest spike on this chart happened only because the data provider switched from September ZWU6 to next front contract December ZWZ6. As Dec is trading higher because of curve contango (ZWU6 price is 408 right now), the change in underlying contract temporarely distorts indicators on the chart, however also calls our attention to possible new setups and patterns.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is bearish
- Heikin-Ashi is swing bullish, but even with higher ZWZ6 price it looks like haDelta is turning down. This shows the market is still under selling pressure
- MACD and EWO ticks up, but both are still bearish.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral due to contract switch, but if you'd replace price with still tradable ZWU6, that shows we are at the lows again.
- Heikin-Ashi has bearish indication.
- What should we focus at? I think if ZWU6 holds above 400 before contract maturity next week, that would make a possible double bottom on the "old' setup. If we translate this to the new setup with ZWZ6, that would make a possible Kijun retest ard 422-425. So in case December Wheat gives a buy signal around 425 support, we'll have an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with possibly 460-480 target later.
Strategy: wait until ZWZ6 price gets lower to Kijun Sen. Look for a buy signal there. Enter 1 unit long in case of valid signal. Increase to 2-3 units if price confirms and market breaks above 440 later.
