Wheat Bearish FlatA bearish flag has developed on July Wheat. How much fall there will be is the issue. USDA reports for 2017 are less bushels than last year, but there are still large supplies hanging over wheat, corn and especially soybeans.
ZW1! trade ideas
The Bottom Many Have Been Looking For: WheatIf I were asked to pick just one asset to be long in 2017, I'd consider wheat as my top choice.
I am still long from 422. As shown below, I got stopped out but managed to re-enter at that exact price.
Wheat Has Completed A Bearish Butterfly and AB=CD PatternI had an order set to short 1 pip above the current high of the day and didn't get picked up. I have since moved the order to the high as shown in the chart. Risk:Reward is pretty nice and looking left (further left than on this chart) there is some structure which supports this as a supply zone.
Wheat has been looking pretty bullish so it would probably be advisable to wait for a bearish signal on a lower time frame. Let me know what you think about Wheat!
CBoT wheatThe daily chart shows that price has been moving within the boundaries of a descending price channel until January 4 when price broke out of same channel at the upside. With the break out of price the upper line of the price channel has now changed its character from resistance to support. The zone between, roughly, 410 and 400 is now a supportive region which has been tested back on January 11 and which could be tested one more time before price hikes up.
Still neutral in the range. Trades at equilibriumFrom this setup we can not really decide what to do. It can either was through the thin and flat Kumo cloud, or Kijun holds and then price reverses up quickly. Not an easy call, as my system is a trendfollowing system, while Wheat it's clear Wheat has not been trending since July-August/2016.
Maybe haOscillator gives slightly bigger chance for Kijun to hold. We need few more days to get clarity.
Based on technical setups, Corn is still a better candidate for long in case.
WHEAT | Weekly Chart A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the position similar treatment to that which we might a long option trade.
Maybe it's different this timeObviously we need a break and confirmation, but Heikin-Ashi price action looks different compared to three previous cases, when Wheat could not hold gains at its trading range top, and fell sharply.
If range breaks on top side, bullish price objective will be 470-480.
(Note: market is closed today)
CBoT wheatWheat:
Price has made a decisive move up during the past week and broke out of the descending price channel. The upper line of same price channel has been serving as resistance during the past 6 months and is considered to be support now. We are now looking for a pullback of price towards the supportive zone from where we expect price to make another impulsive move up to the 440 region.
Indecision, inverse divergence, some positive biasWheat market has been struggling to find direction since October. Is it just another consolidation of the long term beari market, or can it be some kind of bottom building?
Weekly:
- Major beartish trend since the July/2012 peak. Ichimoku has been bearish since 2013.
- Market has been consolidatig for almost 4 months now. No lower low since Aug/2016.
- Heikin-Ashi signal is neutral, shows indecision. haDelta crosses above SMA3 but the indicator is stuck at zero. haDelta+ points down, but has no momentum
- MACD is below zero, but no bearish cross right now.
- EWO is bearish, but value ticks higher.
- Bearish supports are: 440 and 455. A weekly close above 455 would open space for a strategic bull market.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, all averages are flat arund 410 level, and Kumo ahead is thin. This means market has not been trending for 52+26 = 78 days.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bullish bias now. 7-8th/Dec market failed to continue bearish. After a doji candle we have the second green candle today (with somehow less convincing lower high -> bit of momentum loss). haDelta+ is above zero and points up.
- MACD showed/shows something interesting too: looks like an inverse negative divergence, which means that MACD made a lower low, while price did not. This is often an early bullish signal. Let's see if MACD crosses up, to confirm more bullish force
- EWO is neutral.
While the big picture is still neutral, in short term bearis may step back and bulls may get stronger. With a close above 416 market could retest 440-455 strong supp/res zone.
I am playing the long side (from 407.50), without any serious leverage, and with a relatively tight stop.
Wheat 2008-2010 expanded fractalBeing tracking this since September. Starting a position, as inflection point is so close, that it could reverse the trend totally out of the blue as in June 2010.
-Ideal Tgt @ 50% fib ext by March
-Stop @ 3.00
CBoT WheatWheat:
Price made a very strong move down during Monday's session and broke through our first supportive level. It then tested the pivotal support which held after which price created a 'morning star' pattern which is a reliable reversal pattern.
We keep our bias unchanged bullish. The low of last week at 398.75 has now become pivotal support.
$WHEAT - "La Niña" - The Final Countdown... very strong downward trend. I hope that the severe winter change the trend on the chart.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
OversoldIt can be sold however , we are in lower end of range and it's possible sharp Rallies. Sooo , wait for better time to come before actually trade this asset.
