wheat monthly chart key point recap Wheat is one of the few commodity futures where technical analysis can come in handy
ZW1! trade ideas
Cycle - Gold vs Commodities vs Inflation In this video analysis, I will walk you through 3 keys:
1. My observation on these cycles
2. The super charge in the Gold, how that affect the commodities subsequently?
3. How about inflation? Will it settle at 3%?
Some reference for traders:
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 / ZW
Gold Futures & Options – Its Minimum Fluctuation
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 / GC
Soybean Oil Futures & Options - Its Minimum Fluctuation
1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00 / ZL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Moving Averages: Their Role and Significance in TAWhen I worked as a professional technical analyst at major banks, I often encountered two common questions: Did I optimize my moving averages, and why did I use a 55-week and 200-week moving average?
To address these queries, I've created a short video. The answer is that I never optimized the moving averages. Firstly, moving averages have a lagging effect, and secondly, when optimized, they may work well for a short period but eventually lose effectiveness. Therefore, I never relied on them as a sole basis for entering or exiting trades. Instead, I used them to confirm my existing views.
However, moving averages do serve a purpose, especially if you find ones that work well for you. In my case, I found that the 55-week and 200-week moving averages were effective. Firstly, I observed that several markets tended to revert to these long-term moving averages (I analyze numerous charts regularly). Secondly, the 55-week moving average approximates to around one year of data, while the 200-week moving average approximates to around four years. This is significant because many clients pay close attention to these long-term moving averages. My speculation is that the United States, being one of the largest markets globally, experiences presidential elections every four years, which impacts the US Dollar and, consequently, other markets.
Examining the Wheat chart, you can see the impressive performance of the 55-week and 200-week moving averages during the bull market. They consistently supported the upward trend. However, when the market began to break below the 55-week moving average, it indicated a potential end to the bull trend. Subsequently, when it broke below the 55-week moving average for the second time, it confirmed the conclusion that the bull move was over and the trend had turned negative.
Presently, rallies to the 55-week moving average are failing. This conveys crucial information: Wheat is not only in a bearish trend but also suggests that any upward movements towards the 55-week moving average should be viewed as opportunities to sell.
wheat and goldWho else is noticing #Wheat bouncing violently?
#Gold's next move might depend on this.
wheat breakdown and gold goes to sleep
what those rising support trend lines.
✅WHEAT STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT🔥
✅WHEAT keeps growing
And soon the price will hit
The horizontal resistance level
Of 727'0 from where I will
Be expecting a local correction
SHORT🔥
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ZW1 Falling wedge On the chart we can see a falling wedge in a bullish trend .
We expect a breakout of the formation. When it's occurs we will enter a long position.
Target is shown on the chart.
Wheat to Corn difference ZW1! ZC1!- when wheat is too cheap to corn - there is the great chances to buy wheat.
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ...
... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.)
Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia.
As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships .
Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments.
As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ...
... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.)
So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.)
... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
Sell wheat everyday 🐻🍞Who sells wheat everyday? It’s the price-reducing wheat bears who want to provide us all with a cheap basic supply of food. "Affordable wheat for all," chant they, offering reduced-price bushels of wheat to anyone who comes their way. At the moment, they are not to be restrained in their sell-off ecstasy, however, we already see the low of the blue wave (v) lying shortly before us, which means that this sell-off should soon come to its end. The wheat price is already in our green target zone here (between USX 662 and USX 472), where we expect a trend reversal. The bulls should therefore report back before too long and point to the need for higher wheat prices. It should be noted that with the end of said blue (v) wave, an overarching and relatively long-lasting correction should also come to its end. Therefore, our green highlighted target zone can serve as an excellent entry opportunity for speculations on the long side.
Grain Strain: How Geopolitical Unrest Threatens Wheat Prices AmiOpinion:
The recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, following the assassination attempt on the Russian president, has raised concerns about the potential impact on global wheat prices. This situation becomes even more significant if Russia decides to withdraw from its agreements with Ukraine. As major players in the global wheat market, Russia and Ukraine together account for about 29% of the world's wheat exports, with Russia being the largest exporter, contributing around 18.5% in 2020. Any disruptions in their wheat production or export capabilities can have substantial implications for international prices, particularly considering the inelastic demand for wheat.
Wheat, as a staple food for many populations, has an inelastic demand, meaning that changes in its price have a relatively small impact on the quantity demanded. Given this inelastic nature, disruptions in the wheat supply due to geopolitical issues may result in significant price fluctuations, as consumers' demand remains relatively constant despite price increases.
In the event of Russia's withdrawal from its agreements with Ukraine, several consequences could directly or indirectly affect global wheat prices:
Intensified conflict and regional instability may disrupt wheat production and transportation. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the conflict has already led to a 15-20% reduction in agricultural production in affected areas. Further escalation could exacerbate these issues, limiting wheat production and export capabilities for both countries. The resulting supply shortages could disproportionately affect wheat prices, given the inelastic demand.
Geopolitical uncertainties created by the conflict could lead to trade restrictions and sanctions. In the past, Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. For example, in 2014, the United States and the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia, which impacted various sectors, including agriculture. If the situation deteriorates, additional sanctions could limit Russia's ability to export wheat to certain markets, creating supply chain disruptions and increasing the volatility of wheat prices on the global market, even with the inelastic demand.
Potential impacts on wheat prices could prompt other major wheat producers to adjust their production levels in response to shifting global demand. For instance, countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia may increase domestic production or seek alternative sources to secure their wheat supplies. As of 2021, these countries collectively contributed around 30% of the world's wheat exports. Changes in their production strategies could further affect global wheat prices, especially considering the inelastic nature of wheat demand.
The heightened uncertainty due to the assassination attempt on the Russian president and the subsequent escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased speculation in the commodities market. In 2021, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures saw significant price fluctuations in response to changing geopolitical situations. Traders may continue to react to the heightened uncertainty by buying or selling wheat futures contracts, which can influence short-term price movements and contribute to market volatility, despite the inelastic demand.
In conclusion, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have the potential to significantly impact global wheat prices, particularly if Russia withdraws from its agreements with Ukraine. Consequences of such a decision could include disruptions to wheat production and transportation, trade restrictions and sanctions, adjustments in global wheat production, and increased market speculation. The inelastic nature of wheat demand could exacerbate these impacts, leading to considerable price fluctuations. To mitigate the potential effects of these developments on wheat prices, it is essential for governments, producers, and traders to closely monitor the situation and develop contingency plans to ensure the stability of wheat supplies and markets.
Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA:
Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic.
Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice.
FED Macro Situation Consideration:
All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I am not a financial advisor.
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ZW Wheat futures at 1st yearly supportJuly Wheat futures is testing support at the Yearly s1 pivot points.
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ZWN2023 - Artificial scarcity Wheat is getting cheapering
although it should go up in price because there's less of it on the market.
Prices in the stores are going up
How this happens, who can explain to me.
if you like the idea, please "Like" it. This is the best "Thanks!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and please yourself and your friends.
WHEAT FUTURES Weekly Technical AnalysisZW1! Weekly - No RECOMMENDATION or ADVICE Status / EDUCATIONAL only - Support, Resistance, Trend Lines, Cluster, Confluence, Rectangles, Pitchfork, Modified Schiff Pitchfork, Fibonacci Extension - Hope it Helps, Good Luck
DISCLAIMER - This communication is not trading or investment advice, recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any investment product is provided for informational, educational and research purposes only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The author or persons involved in the conception, production and distribution of this material cannot be held responsible for transactions or any financial loss or damages resulting directly or indirectly from the use or application of any concepts or information contained in or derived from this material. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any person who chooses to use this information as a basis for their trading assumes all the liability and risk for themselves.
long position on ZWMy strategy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like while respecting all the values that define the stock maket
long position on ZWMy strategy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like while respecting all the values that define the stock maket
short position on ZWMy strategy is based on price action with the reading of certain indicators that I like while respecting all the values that define the stock maket
wheat futures look bullish for a new set up. $zw1bull case for wheat set up, if history repeats we get a nice curve to a pump.
2hr Wheat FuturesWheat Futures for the next bight- 2 hour chart---
Trying to adjust the market a certain way; over the next 2 years---
we will see what happens over; next 6 months
Wheat 609 Days from 609 low in July 2021Wheat 609 Days from 609 low in July 2021, did it square out for a run up?
Opening (Margin): /ZW April 21st 725/735 Long Call Vertical... for a 4.25 debit.
Comments: Taking a small directional shot in wheat here on weakness with a bullish assumption long call vertical. $287.50 max on buying power of $212.50 with a 729.25 break even.
