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MZS1! trade ideas

A Trade as Simple as "Shooting Ducks in A Barrel" Soybean ShortIf you follow my channel, you know I love to trade a strategy that I like to call "Ducks in a Barrel". Its a strategy that is as easy as shooting ducks in a barrel. We have a setup forming on the Daily timeframe for the Soybeans market. Step 1: Identify trend (I like to see the 52 & 39 period SMA's sloping strongly and pulling away from each other). In the case of Soybeans, we see a strong bearish trend. Step 2: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERVALUED VS GOLD & US TREASURIES. We see with Soybeans, we are now overvalued on the Daily timeframe vs gold & treasuries. Assets that are overvalued in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL. Step 3: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERBOUGHT. We see on the Daily stochastic that Soybeans are overbought. Assets that are overbought in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL. Step 4: In a down trending market, we want to see advisor SENTIMENT become BULLISH. The advisors and general public are usually wrong, so when they become overly bullish in a strong down trend, we want to sell into that bullish sentiment. Step 5: We can also look at accumulation/distribution indicators and momentum for further confirmation of our idea. But realistically, we just need to see 2 or more of the above indicators confluent with each other to have a setup market. Step 6: For the Daily timeframe, I utilize the H4 chart for my entry. The safest entry is to wait for 2 full range days to form beneath the 18 period SMA, and from there market enter when the lowest low of these 2 candles is hit. There are other entry techniques to get into the market earlier, but they come with greater risk. NOTE: If you follow my channel, you will know that I am long Soybeans based on my COT strategy. Commercials are close to the max long positioning of the last 3 years (bullish), OI grinding up on the multi-month down move caused by CM's (bullish), paunch forming (bullish), bearish weekly sentiment (bullish), undervalued on weekly vs gold and treasuries (bullish), major cyclical lows (bullish). I have different accounts for different strategies, as sometimes we get conflicting signals. If you have any questions about these "ducks in a barrel" trade setups, feel free to give me a message. As always, I wish you good luck & good trading.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Tradius_Trades
15
Soybeans Reject New Lows Soybeans Technicals (November) Soybeans are attempting to bottom out, defending the lows from two weeks ago. The market is trading back in our pivot pocket, but what the Bulls really want to see a close above resistance from 984 3/4-991 to spur a bigger move. As mentioned yesterday, trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average are continuing their rapid decline, lowering the hurdle that the Bulls need to get out above for a chance at neutralizing the technical damage that has been done on the chart. Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance Bias: Neutral Resistance: 984 3/4-991****, 1000-1006 1/2*** Pivot: 975 1/2-980 Support: 950-955 1/4** Notes Crop Progress: Good/excellent conditions for the U.S. soybean crop declined 1% from the previous week to 67%, that is in line with expectations. Weekly Export Inspections: 411,165 Metric Tons (15,107,723 bushels), in line with expectations. Up from last week's 405,628 MT. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/ Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
SOYBEANS - COT Based Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER. This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There is real risk involved with trading any market. I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week. Here is why. -Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish. -Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish. -While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish. -Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish. -Undervalued vs gold and bonds. -ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near. -Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme). -Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals. -Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low. For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message. Good luck, and good trading.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tradius_Trades
2
What's Next for Soybeans?Soybeans Technicals (November) November soybean futures traded into support yesterday which we have had outlined as 1013-1014, that has so far held. A break and close below here and a peek below the psychologically significant $10.00 level seems inevitable. On the flip side, 1025-1031 3/4 continues to be the first hurdle, a pocket that was tested but failed against in yesterday's trade, with a high of 1028 3/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could propel prices back towards more significant resistance from 1041 3/4-1045. This pocket represents trendline resistance from the end of May peak, as well as the 20-day moving average, both of which have been acting as clear resistance points, as shown in the chart below. Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1046-1050**, 1061 1/2-1062 3/4*** Pivot: 1025-1031 3/4 Support: 1013-1015***, 997-1000** Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT) Old Crop: 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 376,400 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. New Crop: 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week's report came in at 632,100 MT. Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report Production: 4.473 billion bushels Yield: 52.6 bushels per acre Harvested Acres: 85.116 million 23/24 Ending Stocks: 350 million bushels 24/25 Ending Stocks: 470 million bushels Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple). Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
1
Soybeans Trade to New LowsSoybeans Technicals (November) As with corn, November soybeans were on the verge of a breakout move in the middle of last week's trade, but ultimately failed on Friday which has spilled into weakness and new lows in the early morning trade. Despite trading roughly 50 cents off Friday's high, the daily RSI is not yet registering as "oversold". Minor support near 1025 is still holding this morning, but a failure there and a drop to the psychologically significant $10.00 handle wouldn't be out of the question. 1046-1050 is the hurdle the Bulls want to get back out above to help repair some of the damage that has taken place over the last two trading sessions. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts through July 23rd, 90% of which was short covering. That shrunk their net short position to 163,659 futures and options contracts. Broken down that is just 59,942 longs VS 223,601 shorts. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***, 1085 1/2-1087** Pivot: 1046-1050 Support: 1025-1031 3/4**, 1000** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Soybeans Make New Lows. How Low Can We Go?Soybeans Technicals (November) November soybean made new lows yesterday and in the overnight trade but are attempting to find their footing as they trade back into positive territory this morning. The RSI is towards the lower end of the range from this year's trade with a reading of 29.45. The first barrier the Bulls want to get out above this morning comes in from 1085-1087, above that could spur a move towards the technically and psychologically significant 1097-1102 3/4 pocket. Our short-term bias is sitting at Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. Below is a 4-hour chart of November soybeans. Soybean oil has been on our radar for the last several weeks. It had a nice move higher and a little pullback recently, but we still like the upside potential here. A move above 50 could spark a bigger move. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1097-1102****, 1111 1/2-1115***, 1138 1/2-1141*** Pivot: 1085-1087 Support: 1070-1071** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Swing Long: Double Bottom + Higher Low + Up-Trending ChannelTechnical factors: Double bottom formed with a higher Low on the second retracement, which was also accompanied by volume accumulation. Long-term upward trend (view weekly chart). Up-trending channel in the medium-term. Well-defined risk. Low-volume node (LVN) that provides for an early/aggressive breakout entry (likely today). Fundamental Factors: WASDE yield estimates for beans this season are running high by more than two bushels per acre.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by porcupine80
Soybeans Were on a Rollercoaster Ride Last WeekSoybeans Technicals (July) July soybean futures had an impressive rally on Thursday, taking prices up to the 50 and 100 day moving averages, which happened to align with the 50% retracement from the April lows to the May highs. The market not only fell flat here but straight up rejected it as prices proceeded to erase the whole rally in Friday's trade. It's tough to draw any conclusion from that price action with a high amount of conviction. With that said, if you tune out the noise and look at the levels, our support and resistance levels remain intact at 1170-1175 and 1199 1/2-1204. A breakout or break down from these levels could lend hand to the next directional move. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of 45.5k futures and options contracts, 37k of that coming on the short side and about 8.4k of that being long liquidation. That puts the Funds net position at short 59,741 contracts. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1220-1225***, 1232 1/4-1236 3/4*** Pivot: 1199 1/2-1204 Support: 1170-1175***, 1140-1145**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSN2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Soybeans Search For Support. Will the Market Find It?Soybeans Technicals (July) Like corn, July soybeans marked their sixth consecutive lower close yesterday, which by just quickly looking at it appears to be the longest losing streak since March of 2023. The fact that the RSI (relative strength index) only got to 38 yesterday is a bit of s shocker. Typically, a reading below 30 is what market technicians refer to as "oversold". The Bulls need to see support continue to be defended, we've outlined that as 1170-1175. A break and close below that pocket and there's about 30 cents of air which would take prices back to the tows from late February through April. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1220-1225***, 1232 1/4-1236 3/4*** Pivot: 1199 1/2-1204 Support: 1170-1175***, 1140-1145**** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSN2024
by Blue_Line_Futures