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XC1! trade ideas

Time to Buy the Dip? Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 64%, this is a 3% drop from last week and 1% lower than expectations. Compared to last year, that number is unchanged. 7% of the crop is silking. Weekly export inspections came in at 676,824 metric tons, well below the range of estimates. Technicals: Corn futures broke below support which opened the door for a precipitous drop, filling the gap from February 7th and coming within a stone's through of previously significant resistance from November to February. Despite the extreme volatility, all the technicals remain intact as our first support pocket held on a closing basis yesterday. As mentioned in yesterday's Tech Talk, this is a great risk/reward setup for those that want to be long the market. If you had been playing the seasonal bearish trend, this is the spot to consider reducing that exposure. The chart is a technical graveyard but is ripe for a decent relief rally. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 624-630 Support: 586-589 ¼****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn: Continued Long Liquidation Corn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 36,649 futures/options contracts through June 28th. This was all long liquidation, 38,185 contracts, with a tiny bit of short covering. This shrinks their net long position to 228,612 futures/options. Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Scattered showers over the weekend have many traders looking for a lower open in the corn market. Stone X (one of the multiple FCM’s we use) raised their Brazilian crop estimate to 119.3mmt, up from 116.8mmt. Technicals: Corn futures broke lower on Thursday, trading to the 200-day moving average. On Friday, that gave way. If the Bulls fail to reclaim ground above 630, we could see the long liquidation continues. The RSI has not showed signs of being this oversold since the spring of 2020. If the Bulls can climb back above that pocket, we could see a retracement of the breakdown from Thursday, closer to 645-652 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 624-630 Support: 586-589 ¼****, 574 ¼-579 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Continuous Corn - WeeklyContinuous Corn - Weekly: **The big red bar down this week is a bit exaggerated as this chart has rolled to chart against the Sep with a 1.20+ inverse. Nonetheless, corn is still down .50 +/- for the week. The 6.16 low hit the trendline, time will tell if this holds. Should we see a bounce from here the first test will be at 7.05 to 7.20. Primary targeted area at 7.72 to 8.00. Extended potential above 8.24 at the 8.50 area. IMO, we will need the reality of production cuts to see new highs, not just a weather forecast.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn: Pitch forks at playContinuous Corn – Weekly: Up trending vs Down trending Pitchforks – Continued from 6/2/22… Up until two weeks ago it appeared that cash corn was going to follow the green bars up with the up trending pitchfork. The July/Sep inverse was a big challenge and the move lower just killed the chance for the continuous chart to maintain upward momentum. Currently the Sep corn leading the continuous chart and is looking for support against the median line in the 6.00 to 6.08 area. If we can catch a bounce look for resistance against the lower level blue line up into the upper level red line. Retracements in the 7.00 to 7.50 area will match up against the pitchfork resistance zones. Below the median line offers support around the 5.45 area
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Corn Futures Test the 200 Day Moving AverageCorn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Technicals (September): Yesterday’s USDA report was Neutral, but Neutral wasn’t enough to feed the Bull into the last trading day of the month/quarter, which triggered additional long liquidation on a break below support from 645-652 ½. That weakness carried into the overnight session and took prices a notch below our next support pocket, 624-630. The market is now the most oversold sense April of 2020. If the market is able to defend support, we could see a retracement of yesterday’s breakdown point, 645-652 ½, this will now act as significant resistance. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 645-652 ½****, 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Support: 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Consolidates Ahead of USDA Report Corn Fundamentals: Corn futures have traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning session as prices consolidate ahead of end of month, end of quarter, and all-important USDA report. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last year’s report we were at 4.111. Technicals (September): Consolidation is the name of the game as we inch closer to the highly anticipated USDA report. With the market chopping around and not really going anywhere, many of our support and resistance levels remain unchanged. Resistance levels come in near 680ish and more significantly 700ish. The upper end would be a retracement of last week’s secondary breakdown point and represents the 100-day moving average, not to mention the psychological significance. On the support side, 645-652 ½ is the pocket the Bulls want to defend. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Support: 645-652 ½****, 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Can Corn Rally Ahead of the USDA Report?Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress showed deteriorating crop conditions (though still better than last year at this time) with good/excellent ratings at 67%, a 3% decline. This has led to overnight relief as we inch closer to Thursday’s USDA report which will cover planted acres and quarterly stocks. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last years report we were at 4.111. Technicals (September): The market dipped lower yesterday, taking out the Thursday lows but there wasn’t much follow through selling, which led to a rally off the lows into the afternoon. We would not be surprised to see the relief continue into Thursday’s USDA report, with resistance levels coming in near 680ish and more significantly 700ish. The upper end would be a retracement of last week’s secondary breakdown point and represents the 100-day moving average, not to mention the psychological significance. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 678 ¼-684 ½**, 697-701**** Pivot: 645-652 ½ Support: 624-630****, 589 ¼*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn spreadsContinuous Charts: Top – Front month to next deferred month Spread Underneath is Front Month continuous Rule 1: Carry spreads have limits, Inverse spreads have no limits… In the past 25-30 years we have seen 6 very strong inverted markets. Each inverted market lasted between 3-6 months and often times carried a bullish market reaction. When the inverse disappears, usually the corn market loses it’s bullish strength… None of the above inverses lasted past September. So on one hand history is strong to say that Dec/March spreads should be safe to hold some carry. But on the other hand, inverses have no rules. Risk-Reward: Don’t look to be a hero on Dec/March spreads, waiting to pick up another .05 - .07 of carry may not be worth the risk when there seems to be potential for .20 to 1.00 inverses on the table.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Will Corn Stabilize Ahead of Options Expiration Corn (July) Technicals: July corn futures are weaker in the overnight/early morning trade. Though it looks ugly on the screen, we have not broken below our significant support pocket, 747-753. As mentioned from the start of the week, July options expiration may be the catalyst to help July corn futures stabilize into the end of the week. December corn….no that’s a different story. December futures have broken below the 100-day moving average and are trading at their lowest price since March 31st. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 778 ¼-784 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures Test and Defend Significant Support Corn Technicals: In yesterday’s morning report we wrote that the early morning weakness below the 50-day moving average (near 780), stating that it “opens the door for a potential retest of significant support from 747-753”. That support was tested and held to a T through the session and in the overnight/early morning trade. Now it’s up to the Bulls to defend it during the regular trading hours. One thing that might help is this week’s options expiration. There is a lot of open interest in the 750 strike, which may help the market consolidate, we talked about this in yesterday afternoon’s Tech Talk. Feel free to reach out with questions or to get these videos. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 778 ¼-784 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Corn Futures RetreatCorn Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 13,858 futures/options through June 14th. This expands their net long position to 278,185. Broken down that is 329,725 longs VS 51,540 shorts. Technicals: Corn futures were sharply higher on Friday morning, but posted their high within the first minute of the “floor open”, which happened to be right at our first resistance point, 800. The rest of the day was steady selling, pressing prices into negative territory by the close. That weakness has spilled into the overnight and early morning trade, following a long weekend. The market has broken below the 50-day moving average which opens the door for a potential retest of significant support from 747-753 Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 789 ½-790 Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 800'0 Pivot: 782'2 Support : 770'6 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending channel which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 782'2 where the overlap support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 800'0 in line with the swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 770'6 in line with the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for corn .
CBOT:ZC1!
by Tickmill
1
CORN FUTURES (ZC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 800'0 Pivot: 782'2 Support : 770'6 Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending channel which supports our bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 782'2 where the overlap support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 50% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 800'0 in line with the swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 770'6 in line with the overlap support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement . Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for corn .
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Genesiv
Corn Tests Significant Resistance Corn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 140,900 MT for 2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 50 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 138,900 MT were reported for 2022/2023 Technicals: Corn futures are marching higher in the early morning trade, taking prices back to the top end of the recent range. A breakout and close above here could spur another run back at and above the psychologically significant $8.00 marker. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 776-778 Support: 769-773 ½**, 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
This Corn Seasonal is in PlayCorn Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Technicals: Corn futures were able to defend the previous day's low during yesterday's session but didn't do much to change the technical outlook. Our pivot pocket remains intact, that comes in from 769-773 1/2. trendline resistance and the 50-day moving average come in just above that, near 776-778. On the support side of things, 747-753 is the significant pocket and potential inflection point. If the Bulls fail to defend that pocket, we could see long liquidation take us back to the lows from two weeks ago, in the mid 720s. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 776-778*** 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 769-773 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Corn Market Update: Fundamental/Techncial Analysis 6.14.22Corn Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report showed corn is 97% planted, 88% emerged, and Good/Excellent conditions at 72%. All within the range of expectations. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,199,976. This was also within the range of expectations. Dr. Cordonnier increased Brazilian corn production by 3mmt to 110mmt. The USDA is at 116mmt, we believe the market is pricing in somewhere in the middle of those two estimates. Technicals (July): July corn futures were lower yesterday, but finished off the lows, closing right near our pivot pocket, 769-773 ½. We are seeing some of yesterday’s weakness spill over into the overnight/early morning session following yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report. Technical levels remain largely intact. Resistance remains intact from 789 ½-790 ½. A continued failure to reclaim ground above here would mark a lower high, which would keep the door open for a potential lower low and a drop back to the 100-day moving average, 726 ½. The inflection point for a bigger drop would be a break and close below 747-753. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 789 ½-790 ½**, 800-803 ¾**, 809-810 ¼*** Pivot: 769-773 ½ Support: 747-753****, 720-726 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine