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XC1! trade ideas

Grain Futures Gain GroundGrain futures are higher in the early morning trade as some as headline risk looms into the weekend. Corn Technicals (May) May corn futures are fractionally lower in the early morning trade as prices linger near our pivot pocket from 431 1/2-435, which just happens to be right near the middle of first support and first resistance. We like the upside potential in corn but some of the deferred contracts have a more friendly technical landscape than the May. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 441 3/4-444 1/2***, 447 1/2-450**** Pivot: 431 1/2-435 Support: 421-422*** Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net sellers of about 8k contracts (through 4/2/24), that puts their net short position at 259,556. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Technicals (May) May soybean futures are fractionally higher in the early morning trade. Support from 1170-1175 will continue to be very important for the Bulls to defend through this week's trade. A break and close below could spark another wave of pressure. On the resistance side of things, they want to see a close above resistance from 1198-1205 1/2. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2***, 1212 3/4-1216*** Pivot: 1187 Support: 1170-1175***, 1161-1167**** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3.5k contracts, trimming their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Wheat Technicals (May) Wheat futures broke out above trendline resistance last week which adds to the recent trend of higher highs and higher lows. If the Bulls can achieve a close above resistance from 568 1/2-570 we could see it open the door for an extension towards the psychologically and technically significant $6.00 level. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 568 1/2-570***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 525** Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Options Blueprint Series: Leveraging Diagonals with Corn FuturesIntroduction to Corn Futures (CBOT) Corn Futures, central to the commodities market, are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). These futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell 5,000 bushels of corn, providing traders with a mechanism to hedge against price changes or to be exposed to future price movements in the agricultural sector. Contract Specifications: Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Quotation: Cents per bushel Minimum Tick Size: ¼ cent per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Sunday to Friday, electronic trading from 7:00 PM to 7:45 AM CT, and Monday to Friday, daytime trading from 8:30 AM to 1:20 PM CT Contract Months: March, May, July, September, December, with additional serial months providing year-round trading opportunities Margin Requirements: Margins are set by the exchange and can vary, with initial margins typically being a fraction of the contract value to secure a position ($1,300 at the time of this publication) The liquidity and volume in Corn Futures make them an attractive market for traders. Factors influencing corn prices include weather patterns affecting crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, and changes in energy prices due to corn's role in ethanol production. Understanding Diagonal Spreads Diagonal Spreads are a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling options of the same type (either calls or puts) with different strike prices and expiration dates. This approach is designed to leverage the time decay (theta) and volatility differences between contracts, making it particularly suitable for markets with expected directional moves and distinct volatility characteristics, like Corn Futures. Key Components: Long Leg: Involves buying an option with a longer expiration date. This option acts as the foundational position, typically chosen to be in-the-money (ITM) to capitalize on intrinsic value while also benefiting from time decay at a slower rate due to its longer duration. Short Leg: Consists of selling an option with a shorter expiration date and a different strike price, usually out-of-the-money (OTM). This leg generates immediate income from the premium received, which helps offset the cost of the long leg. Strategic Advantages: Directional Flexibility: Diagonal spreads can be tailored to bullish or bearish outlooks depending on the selection of calls or puts, strikes and expirations. Time Decay Harnessing: By selling a shorter-term option, the strategy aims to benefit from the rapid acceleration of time decay on the sold option, improving the position's overall theta. Given the cyclical nature of the agricultural sector and the specific factors influencing corn prices, diagonal spreads offer a strategic method to trade Corn Futures options. They provide a balance between long-term market views and short-term income generation through premium collection on the short leg. Application of Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures In applying Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures, we focus on a bearish strategy to capitalize on an anticipated gap fill below the current price level. This strategic choice is driven by the analysis of Corn Futures' price action, indicating potential downward movement. A bearish diagonal spread can be particularly effective in such scenarios, offering the flexibility to benefit from both time decay and directional movement. Bearish Diagonal Spread Setup: Long Leg (Buy Put): Select a put option with a longer expiration date to serve as the foundation of your bearish position. Choose a strike price that is at-the-money or in-the-money (ATM/ITM) to ensure intrinsic value. Short Leg (Sell Put): Sell a put option with a shorter expiration date at a lower strike price that is out-of-the-money (OTM). Trade Example: Assumption: Corn Futures are trading at 434 cents per bushel. Long Put: Buy a 47-day put option with a strike price of 435 cents, paying a premium of 7.49 cents per bushel ($374.5 – point value =$50). Short Put: Sell a 19-day put option with a strike price of 415 cents, receiving a premium of 1.01 cents per bushel ($50.5 – point value =$50). As seen on the below screenshot, we are using the CME Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. The goal is for Corn Futures to decline towards the 415-cent level (origin of the gap). Risk Considerations: While diagonal spreads can offer controlled risk (premium paid = 6.48 = 7.49 – 1.01 = $324 – point value =$50) and strategic flexibility, it's crucial to be mindful of the potential for loss, particularly if the market moves sharply in an unintended direction. Employing risk management techniques can help mitigate these risks: Adjustments and Rolls: Proactively manage the position by adjusting or rolling the short leg to a different strike price or expiration date in response to market movements or changes in volatility. This can help collect additional premium and potentially offset losses on the long leg. Use of Stop Losses: Implement stop-loss orders based on predefined risk tolerance levels. This could be set as a percentage of the initial investment or based on the technical levels in Corn Futures prices. Diversification: While not specific to the strategy, diversifying your portfolio beyond just Corn Futures options can help manage overall market risk. Different markets may react differently to the same economic indicators or geopolitical events, spreading your risk exposure. Regular Monitoring: Given the dynamic nature of Corn Futures and the options market, regular monitoring is crucial. Stay informed about market conditions, news impacting agricultural commodities, and changes in volatility that could affect your position. Diagonal spreads in Corn Futures offer a strategic avenue for traders looking to exploit market conditions and time decay with a defined risk profile. However, the key to successful implementation lies in diligent risk management, including making informed adjustments, employing diversification, and maintaining a disciplined approach to monitoring and exiting positions. Conclusion In this edition of the Options Blueprint Series, we explored the strategic application of Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This advanced options strategy offers traders a nuanced approach to potentially capitalize on market movements, leveraging the inherent time decay of options to enhance potential returns. Employing Diagonal Spreads allows traders to express a directional bias—bearish, in our case study—while managing the investment's risk profile through a combination of long-term and short-term options. By buying a longer-dated, in-the-money put and selling a shorter-dated, out-of-the-money put, traders can set up a position that benefits from both the expected downward movement towards a gap fill and the accelerated time decay of the sold option. However, as with any sophisticated trading strategy, understanding and managing the associated risks is paramount. Directional risks, volatility changes, and the potential for early assignment on the short leg require vigilant management and a readiness to adjust the position as market conditions evolve. By adhering to disciplined risk management practices—such as making timely adjustments, employing stop losses, and maintaining portfolio diversification—traders can seek to navigate the complexities of the options market and aim for consistent, strategic gains. The Corn Futures market, with its dynamic price movements influenced by a range of factors from weather to global supply and demand dynamics, provides a fertile ground for applying Diagonal Spreads. Traders who invest the time to understand both the underlying market and the intricacies of this options strategy may find themselves well-positioned to exploit opportunities that arise from market volatility. In summary, Diagonal Spreads present a strategic option for traders looking to leverage market insights and options mechanics in pursuit of their trading objectives. As always, education and practice are key to mastering these techniques, with paper trading offering a risk-free way to hone one's skills before venturing into live markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Are December Corn Futures Set for a Rally to $5.00?December corn futures, often referred to as the “new crop” contract because it is the price for the U.S. crop that is about to get planted. The first crop progress report of the year showed just 2% of the crop is planted in the United States. With the crop hardly in the ground, there are uncertainties around production potential that tend to offer seasonal support to prices. The seasonal backdrop coupled with a potential shift in momentum through the month of March may offer a good risk/reward trade to the upside. As you can see on the chart 480-485 has been a significant pocket dating back to last May, where it first acted as support. It eventually was the breakdown point on January 12th and has acted as resistance since then. If the market can chew through and achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we believe it could spark additional upside momentum with the next significant resistance pocket coming in near $5.00 -5.06, which is both technically and psychologically significant. As you can see on the chart this was a congestion zone through the back half of last year and represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from last summer’s high to the year’s low. There’s also a small gap at 503 from January 2nd. Looking at the weekly Commitment of Traders report we see funds holding a net shot position of 259,556 futures/options contracts, this would historically be looked at as a large net short position, especially for this time of year. Closes above technical resistance could spark short covering and add an additional tailwind to the market. A break and close below the recent lows of 460 ¾ would neutralize this bullish bias. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCZ2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Corn Futures And Improved Energy DemandIn this video I go over my thesis on why I am short term long the corn futures market due to the energy market picking up some positive momentum due to strong manufacturing data coming from the two power houses U.S. and China and how I think this could positively impact the price of corn due to it's use in ethanol. Higher crude oil prices can generally have a positive effect on ethanol prices which can make it's raw material corn more valuable. Also the technical set up on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart of the break of downtrend looks promising. CBOT:ZC1! CBOT_MINI:XC1! AMEX:CORN NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! AMEX:USO
CBOT_MINI:XC1!Long
by FlippaTheShippa
CBOT corn dips after prior-session rally, good US planting weathChicago Board of Trade corn futures fell on Monday as traders took profits after steep gains the prior session and as favorable U.S. weather was seen potentially increasing acres planted this spring with the feed grain. CBOT May corn settled 6-1/2 cents lower at $4.35-1/2 a bushel. The strongest rally in eight months last Thursday had lifted the benchmark contract to a seven-week peak. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday pegged U.S. corn planting intentions below trade expectations, but some traders and analysts expect seeded area to rise due to good planting weather in the forecast. In a weekly report on Monday, the USDA is expected to report U.S. corn planting at 2% complete. The USDA on Monday morning said export inspections of U.S. corn totaled 1,431,535 metric tons in the week ended March 28, up 14% from a week earlier and up 30% from the same week a year ago.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Khairil_Anuar
Can Corn Futures Continue to Rally?Thursday marked the last trading day of the month and first quarter, which coincides with one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports of the year; quarterly stocks and prospective plantings. The USDA estimates that there will be 90.036 million acres of corn planted in the U.S. this year, that was well below the average analyst estimate of 91.776 million and down sharply from last year’s 94.641 million. Quarterly stocks were reported at 8.347 billion bushels, this was slightly below the average estimate of 8.427 billion, but still well above last year’s 7.396. With the two headline numbers for corn coming in below expectations, the market responded with a sharply higher trade with the July contract settling 15 ¼ cents higher. As you can see from the chart, corn futures spent much of March attempting to carve out a low and the recent USDA report may aid in that effort. The Bulls still have their work cut out for them though, they will want to see consecutive above our first resistance pocket from 456 ¾-460 ¾. If they can achieve that, we could see additional momentum push prices up near our next resistance pocket from 471-475, which happens to currently coincide with the 100-day moving average. That momentum could come from new buyers, but also short covering from Funds who are still holding a hefty net short position, to the tune of 245,463 futures and options contracts. From a seasonal standpoint, there’s the potential for uncertainty around weather and its impact on production that could also help prices firm. Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCN2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
PBOF ZCMy PBOF chart is an attempt to identify, and be decisive, after a potential bottom has formed through with a good sequential 9 or 13 and triple exhaustion signal. Oscillator divergence and volume are clues to a potential bottom. Regardless they are are hard to bu into real time. But if it appears a bottom has possibly been established then I want to buy the next pullback. To identify that, I am hoping my PBOF chart will be useful. It would shows some indications of a bottom, followed by oversold conditions on fast CCI and RSI oscillators. The price ought to be near the bottom of the bollinger band as well. Triple exhaustion and sequential aren't of use generally once the bottom is in. So now we reduce our focus to these oscillators and the bollinger bands (which become a useful short term volatility indicator at this juncture). A corn trade inspired me to do design the PBOF chart. Here is our two corn charts (ZS and CORN) that I published as in idea in Tradingview so that they are fixed in time and not updating. If they update then the chart will lose meaning. So it is static. You just have to pull up a later chart and see how it worked out but this conveys the idea.
CBOT:ZC1!
by golddigger46
CORN Excellent 4-month buy opportunity.Corn's (ZC1!) price action since the COVID recovery in early 2020 is showcasing an amazing resemblance with the previous full Cycle of 2009 - 2014. This is better illustrated on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Both started the Bull phase on a roughly +175% rebound on the 17 year Support Zone, topping on a Higher Highs (which was a Bearish Divergence with the Lower Highs of the 1M RSI) and then declined both astonishingly by -51.93%. This is where the market is at now. In 2014 the price rebounded by +28.78% back above the 1W MA50 marginally and just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the long-term decline to the 17 year Support Zone. As a result, this presents an excellent 4-month buy opportunity with 506'4 as the Target (+28.78%). Notice also that the 1M RSI is on the exact same level (33.75) as it was on the January 2014 Low, and is reversing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TradingShot
Don't spring forward yet on cornWhen the calendar turns to March, gardeners get itchy to plant things. Experience teaches that it's often a good idea to hold off. The above chart shows that corn traders who were willing to wait until late April 2023 stood a much better chance of profit, both on the long and short sides, than those who jumped in during March. The weather markets of late Spring and early Summer were especially rewarding in both directions. If the present uptrend pushes May corn above 440, we'll be ready to buy. We won't be surprised if that doesn't happen in March. Until then, we plan to watch and wait.
CBOT_MINI:XCK2024
by SwingWaiter
Is A Short-Covering Rally in Corn Imminent? There’s no beating around the bush - the fundamentals for corn remain bearish ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Last month, USDA caught many by surprise revising ‘23 corn yields to record-highs of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since then, corn futures have continuously grinded lower. But, could a short-covering rally be in the offing soon? Per the last CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed money funds have amassed a net-short position of 280,151 contracts (combined futures & options). That represents the largest net-short position in corn since 2019. While corn has continued making new lows, each of the last 4 contract lows have come in conjunction with less and less conviction - namely bullish divergence on the standard 14-day RSI. Moreover, the volume profile has gradually softened since the January USDA report. Thus, it's possible that all of the bears have already sold. The first step in a short-covering rally is getting bears to stop selling - and a friendly WASDE report on Thursday bares the potential to make that happen. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZCH2024Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Corn is getting back up- The market has been moving within a bearish channel since the beginning of December 2023, prices are therefore following a bearish trend in the medium term. - Since the last impact on the bottom of the channel at $436.30, investor appetite has clearly returned, leading the market to a strong rebound. This change in sentiment was also confirmed on the DMI indicator, which now shows strong buying pressure still increasing, within an increasingly directional movement. Additionally, both the 21- and 34-period exponential moving averages are currently registering a bullish crossover, for the first time since the start of the downtrend. - The next potential target of $458.10 (38.2% Fibonacci) is currently in sight for the market. That said, the behavior of technical indicators also allows us to envisage an extension of the upward movement outside the bearish channel, towards the 50% Fibonacci at $464.85, with $461.15 as intermediate resistance. This scenario must however be confirmed by a clear break of $458.10 The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CLong
by ActivTrades
How to Quantify & Identify (real-time) a Trading RangeOne of the most challenging & frustrating tasks for a trader, is to define with a rules-based (systematic) methodology, and identify (on a real-time basis), when a market is in a trading range. Using the MACD-v both of these goals are achieved. The market is defined as being as "Ranging" (one of the Core 7 Range Rules/States) when the MACD-v is between the -50 and 50 ranges, for more than 25 bars consecutively.
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by AlexSpiroglou
🌽 Corn coming at you 🚢Fundamental Data👇 🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 25.61% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 406,680 Metric Tons (A marketing year low) ⬇️ 194,388 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 92,388 Metric Tons this week vs. last week ⬇️ 391,474 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 24,458,454 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 6,708,737 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 24% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 50% Bearish 🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 19% Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🟢 Marketing year high in export sales was achieved for US Corn 🟢 China has been an active buyer of US grains and oilseeds - Corn, Wheat, Sorghum, and Soybeans 🟢 Corn bids are inverted in many pockets of the Western Corn Belt showing a reflection of the difficulty of purchasing cash corn as well as decent processing margins (Ethanol) 🔴/🟢 Drought is starting to bounce back in the Corn growing states but still better then last year (more important for 2024) 🔴 / 🟢 Funds are now net short the most amount of futures & options since the start of the most recent bull market in Corn (2020) 🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports 🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market) 🔴 Mississippi river levels are at +5 year lows. 🔴 Seasonal builds of ethanol stocks increase from here to February (pressures Ethanol margins) Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Corn: -206,478 Contracts (Position as of 11/28) MATIF Corn: -6,450 Contracts (Position as of 11/24) Corn Commentary 🌽 Corn appears to have been priced just right enough to attract demand with a marketing year high in export sales achieved *prior* to the collapse in futures prices last week. This week we will learn if those low prices incentivized even *more* export demand when the USDA releases export sales figures on Thursday. Regardless, there is still plenty of Corn out there and it’s becoming even more difficult to move it due to: 1) Low water levels on the Mississippi River 2) Panama Canal congestion due to low water levels. Both of which are helping attract Corn to be delivered by rail to Mexico and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) for export where destinations in Latin America and Far East Asia do not need to traverse through the Panama Canal. That’s the current and main story the trade is watching from a domestic point of view, but what lies ahead? Largely we’re getting ready to discuss planting decisions for *next years crop* and much of that influence will come from what happens in South America regarding weather and politics, both of which are unpredictable but will have an immense impact on the world supply and demand of grains and oilseeds. (Stay tuned and watch our X news feed for the story to develop) Technicals💹 Corn successfully reversed and broke the downtrend we mentioned last week but failed to settle above it. Regardless, there is now a rangebound trade between 4.70 and 4.93 that can go either way. We'll note that the technicians will say that resistance could break and Corn could rally significantly, but there is still a +2.15 billion bushel expected carryout out there and would higher prices attract demand or kill it? Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Targets: 4.895, 4.9325 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.75, 4.705, 4.62 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZCH2024
by GrainStats
🌽Corn got nuked, what now? 🚢📌 Note, First notice day for December futures is November 30th, if you want ZERO risk of delivery, you will have to liquidate or roll your December futures position by the close on November 29th. Fundamental Data👇 🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 24.06% Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 96% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 406,680 Metric Tons ( A marketing year low ) ⬇️ 194,388 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 92,388 Metric Tons this week vs. last week ⬇️ 391,474 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 22,530,694 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 6,631,248 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 32% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 36% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 25% Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports 🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024) 🔴 Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures, but in Europe they have reduced their net short (slightly) 🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market) 🔴 Mississippi river levels are returning to +5 year lows. 🔴 Seasonal builds of ethanol stocks increase from here to February (pressures Ethanol margins) 🟢 Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts (Fastest pace in over +5 years) 🟢 China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years (what if they want to purchase US Corn next?) Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Corn: -185,502 Contracts (Position as of 11/21) MATIF Corn: -6,577 Contracts (Position as of 11/17) Corn Commentary 🌽 The last wire we alluded to what Corn needed to do to improve demand, price lower. We are now in a lower priced market from the face value of the futures market, but how do you execute new demand with both expensive barge rates AND congestion at the Panama Canal? The answer to that is to sell to export using rail - either selling to Mexico OR selling rail cargos to the pacific northwest for re-export on vessel. For Mexico, that’s already covered and demand continues to increase judging by export sales. As for the rest? Low prices will need to cure low prices and demand will have to step in to put a floor in this market in the PNW (Pacific Northwest). Technicals💹 Corn continues to chop lower creating lower highs and lower lows…so the trend is still lower. The main level we’re watching is the recent low of 4.73 to trigger a new wave of selling with “potential” support at the 4.62 level. Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Targets: 4.80, 4.84 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.62, 4.50 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZCH2024
by GrainStats
🌽Corn NEEDS New Demand (GrainStats)Fundamental Data👇 🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 19.81% Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 81% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 535,191 Metric Tons ⬇️ 5,594 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬆️ 89,498 Metric Tons this week vs. last week ⬇️ 160,191 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 19,290,763 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 4,823,345 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 26% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 33% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 37% Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🔴 USDA Raised estimated yields of the 2023 crop by 1.9 bushels/acre resulting in the *largest ever crop* to be produced in the United States (15.234 Billion Bushels) 🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports 🔴 Russia and Ukraine Corn production increased by 2.9 million metric tons (Ukraine carryout increased by 1 million metric tons) 🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024) 🔴 Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures contracts in the US & Europe (MATIF Corn) 🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market) 🟢 Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts ( Fastest pace in over +5 years ) 🟢 China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years ( what if they want to purchase US Corn next? ) 🟢 US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff (supportive of basis, all else equal) Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Corn: -144,432 Contracts (Position as of 10/31) MATIF Corn: -6,095 Contracts ( Record short. Position as of 11/10) Corn Commentary 💌 Corn continues to find its way chopping through a bear market backed by record US Corn Production . Unfortunately, domestic demand has not been able to keep up with increasing production potential (yield) due to limiting factors: the ethanol blend wall ⛽ and stagnant feed and residual demand 🐂 So where does all the corn need to go? Export Markets 🌍 How do you incentivize exports? Being the most competitive offer (Low Prices) 🌽⬇️ So, if you’re wondering why prices are trending lower, it’s largely because of a supply/demand imbalance and Corn needs to be priced to incentivize *new* demand through the export markets. What better a place to do it than the Corn futures contract which directly ties into the export markets with its river facilities that flow into the US Gulf export market 💡 Until the market finds that point where demand shifts back to the US market OR production problems arise elsewhere in the world, Corn prices may continue in their downtrend. Technicals 💹 We recommend to start paying attention to what Corn does if it breaks the summer low of 4.61 as the mainstream news outlets will trigger a wave of news about the corn market being the lowest since 2020 ⚠️ Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 4.76, 4.80 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.61, 4.42 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
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