🌽Corn got nuked, what now? 🚢📌 Note, First notice day for December futures is November 30th, if you want ZERO risk of delivery, you will have to liquidate or roll your December futures position by the close on November 29th.
Fundamental Data👇
🌽Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 24.06%
Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 96%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
406,680 Metric Tons ( A marketing year low )
⬇️ 194,388 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 92,388 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 391,474 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
22,530,694 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬆️ 6,631,248 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 32%
Neutral 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 36%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 25%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🔴 No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports
🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024)
🔴 Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures, but in Europe they have reduced their net short (slightly)
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🔴 Mississippi river levels are returning to +5 year lows.
🔴 Seasonal builds of ethanol stocks increase from here to February (pressures Ethanol margins)
🟢 Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts (Fastest pace in over +5 years)
🟢 China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years (what if they want to purchase US Corn next?)
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Corn: -185,502 Contracts (Position as of 11/21)
MATIF Corn: -6,577 Contracts (Position as of 11/17)
Corn Commentary 🌽
The last wire we alluded to what Corn needed to do to improve demand, price lower. We are now in a lower priced market from the face value of the futures market, but how do you execute new demand with both expensive barge rates AND congestion at the Panama Canal?
The answer to that is to sell to export using rail - either selling to Mexico OR selling rail cargos to the pacific northwest for re-export on vessel. For Mexico, that’s already covered and demand continues to increase judging by export sales. As for the rest? Low prices will need to cure low prices and demand will have to step in to put a floor in this market in the PNW (Pacific Northwest).
Technicals💹
Corn continues to chop lower creating lower highs and lower lows…so the trend is still lower. The main level we’re watching is the recent low of 4.73 to trigger a new wave of selling with “potential” support at the 4.62 level.
Watch the following levels for now👇
🟢 Current Upside Targets: 4.80, 4.84
🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.62, 4.50
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