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XC1! trade ideas

Higher low, slight bullish biasThere will be front contract change soon, so this time I place ZC2!, which refers to March/2016 contract. Weekly: - After testing Kumo, in last 6 weeks price dropped below cloud, but again it looks like printing only a higher low. Channel support held for last 2 weeks. Ichimoku setup can not gain bearish momentum until price trades above 353. - Heikin Ashi started to signal possible slow down in bearish momentum. Consolidation in progress, which may turn into a pull back this week or next. - Weekly key reversal levels: 390-400 area and 425 above Kumo. Daily: - Ichimoku started to turn back to neutral. Price made its higher low on 17/Nov, since then it is ticking up. First key level is 380+ - Heikin Ashi made a long wicked doji yesterday. It looks like there was a larger buyer in corn market, and price failed to reverse bearish again. Today candle is bullish, confirmed by haDelta above zero and oscillator in green. Strategy: hold 0,5 unit long.
CBOT:ZC2!Long
by Kumowizard
Will 355-360 key support hold again? - Update with weekly chartWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral with bearish biased, but asbias. Mkt have been missing real bearish momentum in 2015, Kumo was tested couple of times and forward Kumo has become thin and flat: will be easier to break through in case if a reversal. - Major bearish trendline is close with its appr. 396 value. Against this we have a shorter term bullish trend channel, with support at 355-360 range. Market is stuck between these support resistance levels. Bears would need a massive break below 355, while Bulls could take a startegic lead really above 400 - Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, but smoothed haDelta shows losing momentum again. If we close the week higher from current spot price, then weekly candle will have a higher low. - EWO has minor bearish bias, but vitually almost at zero: market doesn't have a trend wave, just range consolidation. Daily: - Ichimoku setup has bearish bias, but for validation Price should break prev low (resistance) at 355. - Heikin Ashi signalled drop in selling interest in last two days as Price approached 355-360 zone. Heikin Ashi candle turns small green, with smoothed haDelta trying to move back above zero line. - There is some chance for a pull back to 373 key level. For a bullish reversal Price has to close above 380 I still think the chance of a strategic bullish reversal is slowly increasing. First 355 should hold as firm support, then the upper key levels have to be cleared at 380 and 400. Who knows what El Nino brings us next year... Note: I keep small long for now as swing trade.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Kumowizard
Slight bullish bias in the neutral zoneWeekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral - Heikin Ashi setup is neutral, with some minor bullish bias -> haDelta crosses above SMA3, but it is still ard zero line, so no momentum gain yet. - Within a few weeks time Pice can get to a very important long term supp/res level: 396+ Long term bearish trendline, Kijun Sen (26 weeks average), future Senkou B (52 weeks average) - Market has been developing a possible bullish channel since Sept/2014 lows. - Lower key lvls: 373 (Tenkan) and 355+ (trend channel bottom and and horizontal lvl. - Upper key levels: 396+ and 419+ Daily: - This is the textbook example of the possibly most neutral Ichimoku setup: Price is in the Kumo, stays between Tenkan and Kijun. Tenkan is below Kijun, and both average lines are also in the Kumo. Senkou lines and Kijun are flat, not pointing in any direction. Even future Kumo shades over price. Obviously 373 - 385 is a neutral range. - Heikin Ashi is bullish within the neutral range. Momentum could gain only above 385. I'd say it is a buy on dips until stays above 373. Would be really bearish only below 355. Would be more bullish above 385 and really strategic bullish above 400! Based on the weekly chart I have the feeling that Corn is building a longer term bottom and may reverse bullish probably next year. Of course we have to wait for price confirmation, until then it is just an idea and a feeling. Also imprtant to note, that for a bullish reversal the whole agri complex (Wheat, Corn and Soybeans) has to move in same direction. Right now it is not yet true.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
Heikin Ashi buy signalWeekly: - No change since my last post. recent candle is too young, as it is only Tuesday, but it doesn't have a lower wick so far. - weekly key levels are: 395 (Kijun Sen) and 415-420 (major downtrend line and weekly Kumo) Daily: - Ichimoku setup goes more neutral with slight bullish bias. Price did not even test Kijun, moved higher after touching Tenkan and 100 WMA. - Heikin Ashi candle signalled sentiment change yesterday, gives a firm buy signal today. haDelta/SMA3 up. - upper key levels in focus: 395 and 415! Above 395, and especially above 415 we'd see a major strategic trend reversal! Simple is beautiful, so is life with all its difficulties. Regardless of the outcome, or result of this trade, I dedicate this post to my beloved friend, who decided to leave us yesterday... Find peace "Giorgio"! www.youtube.com
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
1
#corn trade bias remains bullish. Look for buy signals in dips!Weekly: - 350 proved to be a strong support/resistance. No lower low below the Kumo, means bearish resumption failed! - Ichimoku picture is back to neutral, What's more the bias is switching to bullish! Early signals: weekly candle reaches an up to obvious equilibrium level of Kijun Sen - Senkou B - 100 WMA. Chicou Span is trying to cross back above past candles. - Heikin Ashi signalled reversal last week, this week the signal turns to confirmed bullish, with green candle and haDelta/SMA3 move back above zero line. The candle has long body, no lower wick and very small higher wick -> this means a really strong momentum - A bullish channel development may be in place, with focus on 415-420 key area: major downtrend line and spot Kumo. If this ultimate Key level will be broken, next tgts come as 450 and 500. Daily: - Extreme short squeeze caused a very sharp spike to the thick Kumo. This move turned Ichimoku picture back to neutral from bearish in two days! Price retreats now a bit, but the bias is bullish until trades above Kijun Sen. This means lower support zone is 370-380 - Heikin Ashi again gave early signal of the overbough situation: haDelta peaked at an extreme high, when Price itself reached Kumo resistance at 395. In two days folowing the peak, candles showed exhaustion and later pull back started. - Possible supports are: 372 / 376. Watch price action and look for Heikin Ashi buy signal in the support zone!
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
December Corn trying to bottom for these 5 reasonsThe 3 trend lines that you can use to draw a downtrend line from the summer's highs across the last rally high are breaking today: 1. Using the closes - 2. Using the highs - 3. Using the "highest lows" - (an internal trend line) 4. CCI is turning back up from below -100 (11-day CCI) - 5. RgMov, my proprietary trendiness indicator that usually leads price, didn't make a new low with price, so it is indicating some internal strength here for Corn. Two of the big reasons for the drop in corn, from my perspective, was that corn production had a rough start and then it picked up and simultaneously commercial hedgers were selling corn futures and put themselves heavily short the market right at the highs and have taken the market down since then. I don't know what will happen to corn production, nor do I know what the commercial hedgers are going to do with their positions, so I can only speculate on what the market is telling me using technical analysis. With that in mind, I like my odds here. I don't have a lot of risk, but I have a lot of upside. In that same vein, if I have a huge upside potential to downside risk, then I know my odds aren't going to be very high of a winning trade. Why? Because that's how markets work. You don't get free money handed to you from the market, but if you do, be very thankful and take it. Regards, Tim 9:48AM EST
CBOT:ZCZ2015Long
by timwest
4
CORN - If you missed last time, get ready for long now!!!First of all please read my previous bullish recommendations, and my view about how Corn Price action started to change. Than look at the move on the daily (or on the weekly) chart: yes that was 20 %+ from the lows, but if one was conservative with the entry, it was still 10 %+ from the Kumo breakout or from 100 WMA break. How does it look like now and what are the chances? Weekly: - the long term bearish trend was broken! Price has finally trades above 100 Weeks (!) WMA spending more than 2 years below it! We have a X-A-B-C reversal pattern with a higher high, after classic long term Elliott wave 0-5 was completed. - Ichimoku setup is still neutral, but around a bullish breakout! Actually Price broke temporarely above the cloud and the 425 long term supp/res line, but since the move was 20 %+ from the previous low, finally it dipped back into the Kumo. Price is trading above 100 WMA, Kijun Sen, and we also have a firm bullish future Kumo twist (Senkou Span A/B cross) - Heikin Ashi candle shows bullish consolidation Daily: - Ichimoku setup is bullish, with corrective price action. As price is reaching Kijun Sen and future Senkou B as most important supports, it is time to consider enterring longs and to look for buy signals again. - The correction was as sharp as the bullish run, but the short term bearish momentum probably starts to drop further today. We have to watch the candle body size relative to the previous ones (actually that is haDelta/SMA3 quantification) and also the wicks: will be a lower low or not, will this or the next candle have a higher wick?
CBOT:ZCU2015Long
by Kumowizard
Corn - It will remain very bullish, but needs a pull back firstI think the long waited strategic trend reversal has started to happen in Corn, but short term it has become extremely overboght. Probably we'll see a pull back to 400 support, before it starts another leg up to 500+. Weekly: - Long term bearish trendline is broken. Price is above 100 weeks WMA! Ichimoku setup is close to a bullish breakout. We also have a bullish Senkou Span cross (Kumo twist). This shows the long term sentiment is changing to bullish again. - Heikin Ashi is firm bullish, with extremely strong momentum. However haDelta has reached an extremely high level, and Price is around current Kumo top, so there is some chance we see a pull back from here to Kijun support, before the Bull really startes running towards 500 or maybe even to 600! Daily: - Simply bullish both in terms of Ichimoku and Heikin Ashi, but haDelta has some negative divergence, and Price also got far away from Kijun Sen, and Senkou B line, so it should pull back a bit towards 390-400 equilibrium, before Bulls gain new power.
CBOT:ZCU2015Long
by Kumowizard
Corn - Meanwhile in Agri space there is some bullish actionWeekly: - Ichimoku setup turns neutral from bearish as Price shoots up to the Kumo. - Heikin Ashi signal is firm bullish Is it just another short squeeze, or finally a start of a longer term reversal? Daily: - Ichimoku setup is in possible early bullish phase, but Price faces some headwind first at 400 supp/res. - Heikin Ashi is bullish, but the move from the lows was very quick and agressive, thus haDelta reached extreme high. I think we may see some profit taking here first, and a pull back towards 380-385 support are, where we can start to accumulate longs again.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by Kumowizard
Corn - September 2015 - Daily - Reversing the declineNOTE: The Chart has the content. This content here is "editable" and therefore at risk of being altered to the analysts advantage (hindsight). I am looking for "El Niño" weather pattern to have upside for Corn this year as drought could roll in and change the crop condition over the summer. ADDENDUM to chart: The purple rectangles (lines) are at the START OF WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION DOWN moves and provide clear recognition that sellers are sitting at that level ready to sell and check any advance. This is how the market TEACHES US what levels are important. Instead of guessing that certain "retracement" levels are important, you can "SEE" them clearly, once you know how to find them. Here's what the chart says: NOTE TO PURPLE TRIANGLES: There are NO DAILY RANGES ABOVE the start of the WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION DOWN. The market (buyers) tested the resolve of the sellers, but the sellers didn't allow an entire day above the start of a weekly range expansion down. NOTE TO LIGHT YELLOW TRIANGLE: The inverse is also currently true. There are no entire ranges BELOW the start of the WEEKLY RANGE EXPANSION UP. The sellers had control and flushed the market down to a new low, but it didn't last. The market reversed right back up. Stay tuned if this pattern continues so we KNOW THE KEY LEVEL of the market. RISK: 3 AVERAGE TRUE RANGES = 7 cents/day = 21 cents risk overall. June 17, 364 last, ATR 7 3 x ATR = 21 cents risk = 343 stop. Tim 10:09AM EST June 17, 2015
CBOT:ZCU2015Long
by timwest
8
Corn - Low volatility, bullish bias again. Be a Price follower!Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is neutral/bearish, but there are some important changes in averages: Tenkan, Kijun has been very close to each other, and because of this Senkou A has been flat for long time. By now Senkou B has dropped enough to make a very thin forward Kumo - Price is getting closer to longer term bearish trendline. It has been trading in a relatively tight weekly range of 350-400 since November/2014 (more than 7 months now!), and by definition volatility dropped to very low level. - Heikin Ashi signal may turn bullish again this week. Please not that we need to see friday close to make sure the signal is valid, but I think we will very likely see more move up to range mid and the Kumo. Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral from bearish: Price is below Kumo but above Tenkan and Kijun, Chikou hits past candles, and we have a thick Kumo shading Price ahead. - Heikin Ashi signal has been firm bullish for a while, but Price is facing a serious and thick Kumo resistance ahead. - Kumo is thick and Senkou B is far above Price. From this kind of formation it often happens that while Bulls and Bears keep fighting in the neutral zone of the Cloud, Price slowly develops an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is quite a reliable bullish pattern. Of course we don't know now right now how it will really go, but if that happens to be the case, the measured bullish tgt from a neckline break later would be ard 395. Please remember, we are not Price Predictors, but Price Followers! As my belief is that the higher time frame dominates the lower one, I'd be a buyer on dips. I will keep building some long positions, of course not yet a big strategic one.
CBOT:ZCN2015Long
by Kumowizard
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGE Both corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming: www.livescience.com www.globalresearch.ca www.globalclimatescam.com www.thelongview.com.au dailycaller.com nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com iceagenow.info Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water: www.bibliotecapleyades.net www.blacklistednews.com www.zerohedge.com Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience: www.bibliotecapleyades.net So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities. If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water. Short, short term, Long, long term. Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320. Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential. This is ZCN2015 futures on corn chart, same as ZC1! idea. (Made this idea again because on zcn2015 posting it in forum posts it with chart, unlike zc1!, which is posted with link.) That is all.
CBOT:ZCN2015Short
by justaname
2
CORN DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT WILL END IF WATER SHORTAGEBoth corn and wheat downtrend will continue. Since Dollar is very strong, agriculture is flourishing, oil is cheap, and is going to get cheaper, Corn and Wheat prices will go lower. There's no shortage of food, and it will continue to be like that in the next period. Unless something bad happens this summer, in terms of weather, Prices will go lower. The other possibility of this going higher is due to lack of water in some regions, like California: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Lack of water around the world could be possible due to more factors, but I will start with this: www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com Also, glaciers forming more in asia, it has to do with water retreating, possible global freezing, instead of global warming: www.livescience.com www.globalresearch.ca www.globalclimatescam.com www.thelongview.com.au dailycaller.com nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com iceagenow.info Also, there appears to be water barons buying all water: www.bibliotecapleyades.net www.blacklistednews.com www.zerohedge.com Also, why is global warming a pseudoscience: www.bibliotecapleyades.net So this means, short now commodities while you still can, and watch out for lower production in the coming years because of lack of water around the world that can trigger lack of food and so, rising prices in all commodities. If on 1 month chart, highest high for corn is near 850, it can go in the future to 1600, 2000 or more, but that likely in 2 years or more, and that if farmers won't get water. Short, short term, Long, long term. Breaking the wedge indicates potential short target of 340, and longer target to 320. Breaking above 50 day EMA at 370 indicates possible long, and getting out of the wedge and breaking 200 day EMA at 385 indicates longs to unknown potential. That is all.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by justaname
Corn ZCN2015 July CBOT - Daily - Time at Mode AnalysisCorn is at a very interesting place here on the chart. You can buy with a 362 1/2 stop and look for a move to 379-380 in the near term. I'm curious to see if the sellers re-emerge since you can see that the last level of oversold reading of 11-day CCI is now breached, that maybe the shorts get squeezed a little. The sellers have been in control for a long time here from the 420 level back in December. Now that we are in May and it is planting season, usually this is when prices can get a little volatile. And by volatile, I just would like to see movement in a trend from here, not just volatility around a range. I decided to put the "TIME AT MODE" graph on the bottom so you can see what the "profile" of the current uptrend is. Why is it an uptrend? Because there hasn't been a new low for 5-days. That's a simple rule I follow. If the market is above the "mode" from the time of the low, then there is an uptrend in place. What you want to see in an uptrend is for the "range to expand" in the direction of the trend. If you get that, it helps you define your trend AND it gives you some levels to ADD TO your position on pullbacks. I'd advise buying against the middle of the range expansion bar in subsequent bars, up to 5 days after the range expansion bar. You can exit that "add" at the high of the expansion bar and risk an equal amount as you are trying to make here. That's all for now. Stay posted! Tim 368'0 last 12:17PM EST May 14, 2015 Thursday
CBOT:ZCN2015Long
by timwest
Corn - Bullish hope is fading. Will the bears rule mkt again?I was bullish biased too. Tried to catch bottom a few times in corn. Sometimes I made small, sometimes I lost small during the last few weeks. I am not bullish any more, not until it is below 390! For you attention, the charts include the second active continous contract on the weekly and in line with that the July contract on the daily. Weekly: - The neutral Ichimoku setup is turning into more bearish biased again: Price below Kumo and Kijun Sen, medium strong Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross is possible. Last hope is horizontal supp/res ard 374! - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish, with one last question mark on haDelta -> is the positive divergence of haDelta/SMA3 about to break? Daily: - Bulls have serious problem: Ichimoku setup is turning into firm bearish again. Price made a lower low, Chikou comes back to open space below price candles, both Tenkan Sen and Senkou A point down. - Heikin Ashi signal is bearish too Honestly, I do not know if we'll see a szrong bearish trend resumption, or if it will be only a bear trap, but now it is not prudent to hold any long position in Corn, and all longs opened lately must have been stopped out by now! As I don' yet see Wheat and Soybeans as bearish as Corn right now, I don't like the idea of going short in Corn. On the other side I'd consider a long only above 390. Maybe better not to touch it at all.
CBOT:ZC2!Short
by Kumowizard
Corn - Bulls need to protect 365-370Weekly: - Ichimoku setup is still neutral, but if Price breaks back below 965 it will turn to bearish - Heikin Ashi signal this week is worrysome, especially that Tenkan/Kijun may cross bearish too - Last support is 365 Daily: - Ichimoku setup is turning more bearish: strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross, everything is below the Kumo. - The possible early Heikin Ashi reversal signal at minor trend and horizontal support is the last hope for bulls. No lower low so far compared to low on 19/March. If Price can move higher from here, then Bulls will have some more chance to attack a thin Kumo ard 383 again. However it can turn bullish only above 390. Maybe it is better not to touch it now.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Kumowizard