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Soybeans Finishing Intermediate Wave 4 with Bearish Seasonality Soybeans are currently in minor wave D of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once soybeans break out of the triangle, they will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 1212'4 (0.5 Fibonacci level) area for November soybeans, possibly lower. This is also happening during the summer months when soybean prices typically decrease. If you bought soybeans on July 20 and sold soybeans on September 28 every year for the past 8 years, you would have lost money for 6 of those years (75%).
CBOT:ZSX2022Short
by epistemophiliac
Crop Conditions DeclineSoybeans Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 362,622 metric tons, roughly 4,000 more than last week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 61%, 1% lower than last week. 48% of the crop is blooming. Technicals: August soybean futures ran up into our congestion pocket yesterday, which we had listed as 1513 ¼-1516 ½. The market was unable to get out above this pocket which led to some profit taking into the close. That profit taking has continued into the overnight and early morning trade, as prices retreat to give back all of yesterday’s gains. The 200-day moving average has acted as good support over the last two-weeks, we will see if it holds again. That comes in at 1466 ¼. As with corn, our bias remains Neutral as we see short term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560*** Pivot: 1495-1505 Support: 1466 ¼**, 1444-1452**, 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
August Soybean Futures Update Soybeans Commitments of Traders Update: Friday's CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 25,717 futures/options contracts through July 12th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 17,257 contracts. This shrinks the net position of Managed Money to 95,711 contracts. Technicals (August) : Soybeans have been frequent flyers of the 200-day moving average recently, which has held as good support. Futures are higher in the early morning trade, testing the upper end of the back half of last week's trade. If the Bulls can sustain this momentum through the open, we could see an extension towards the psychologically significant $15 handle and above that, our congestion pocket near 1515. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560*** Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼ Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
On The EdgeSoybeans Fundamentals: Chinese GDP missed expectations last night, coming in at .4% in the second quarter from a year ago. Analysts were expecting growth at 1%. Retail sales in China rose more than expected, to 3.1%. On deck is U.S. retail sales, 7:30 AM CT. This will likely have an impact on outside markets, which have recently had an impact on money-flow in commodities. Expectations are for .8% month over month. Techncials: August soybeans continue to linger near the 200-day moving average, trading on it for 7 out of the last 9 sessions. Our pivot pocket remains intact from 1452-1461 ¼. A break and close below here could lead to a retest of last week’s lows. If the Bulls can continue to defend support, the first upside objective would be 1495-1505. With that said, our feelings on soybeans are similar to corn, where we think there could continue to be multiple short-term opportunities for market participants on both sides of the market. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1495-1505*, 1513 ¼-1516 ½, 1530-1538*, 1552 ¾-1560 Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼ Support: 1413 ¾-1424 ¼, 1400-1403** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 1540'4 Pivot: 1494'0 Support : 1424'6 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 1494'0 in line with the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1424'6 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 1540'4 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
CBOT:ZS1!
by Tickmill
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 1540'4 Pivot: 1494'0 Support : 1424'6 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and within the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the pivot at 1494'0 in line with the pullback resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1424'6 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and rise to the 1st resistance at 1540'4 where the swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans Gap Higher, Will it Hold?Soybeans Technicacls: The market sling-shotted higher last night. Our first resistance in Friday’s report was 1495-1505. Our next resistance pocket didn’t come in until 1560-1566, which the market came very close to tagging last night. As with corn, we are in the sell rallies camp. A conviction close or consecutive close back above $16.00 would neutralize that bias. First support/our pivot point comes in from 1513 ¼-1516 ¼. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1513 ¼-1516 ½ Support: 1495-1505***, 1452-1457***, 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Treading Near Significant Levels Soybeans Seasonal Trends in Play: Short November soybeans from 7/1-8/31. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 40 cents, or $2,000 per one 5,000-bushel contract. Fundamentals: Yesterday's weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 63%, this is a 2% drop from last week and 1% lower than expectations. Compared to last year, that number is 4% better. 3% of the crop is setting pods and 16% is blooming. Weekly export inspections came in at 354,987 metric tons, below the range of estimates. Technicals: Soybeans got taken to the woodshed yesterday, breaking below the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement. That forms a pocket form 1452-1457. If the Bulls can chive a close back above this pocket, we could see an attempt at filling the gap from yesterday's open, that comes in from 1495-1505. A failure to close back of this pocket could keep the selling pressure on. There's been significant technical damage done over the last few weeks, so a rally would likely just be relief in a downward trending market. Our bias remains in bearish territory, despite the high probability of a decent relief rally. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1452-1457 Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Retreat to the 200-Day Moving Average Soybeans Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 29,914 futures/options contracts through June 28th. Majority of this was long liquidation, 26,432 contracts. This shrinks their net long position to 124,498 futures/options. Fundamentals: Late last week there were rumors circulating that 8 cargoes of soybeans were cancelled; this would certainly help explain the extensive selling we saw on Friday. Scattered rains over the weekend may help prices see some continuation of long liquidation. Technicals: The big drop on Friday was ugly on the screen, especially when considering the reversal on Thursday off resistance near $16.00. The market finished roughly 90 cents off those Thursday highs and are now threatening to take out the recent lows1494 ¾-1500. A break and close below here would open the door for a run at the 200-day moving average, 1456. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybean Mini Futures (XK1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 1580'4 Pivot: 1495'1 Support : 1420'2 Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1495'1 in line with the swing low support. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 1420'2 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1580'4 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
CBOT_MINI:XK1!
by Tickmill
Soybean Mini Futures (XK1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 1580'4 Pivot: 1495'1 Support : 1420'2 Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud and along a descending trendline , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1495'1 in line with the swing low support. Once there is downside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 1420'2 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1580'4 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
CBOT_MINI:XK1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Momentum Resistance : 1579'0 Pivot: 1495'2 Support : 1426'0 Preferred Case: On the H1, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to the pivot at 1495'2 in line with the swing low support. Once we have downside confirmation that price has broken past pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to the 1st support at 1426'0 where the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1579'0 where the overlap resistance and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: Since both countries, Russia and Ukraine, are major exporter of agriculture goods and their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans, Corn, Naturals Gas are in Backwardation = shortA simple strategy to sell below a fractal (prior low on the chart) below 18 SMA whenever there is a backardwardation (ticker2!<ticker1!) is currently highly profitable on Soybeans, Corn, Naturals Gas, Cotton Some weeks ago the stategy was profitable on 30 year bonds. On other futures contracts the contango/backwardation might not work as relyable as on the above mentioned instruments, or you have to apply a filter for example only sell short soybeans if backwardation is below -40 (future instrument 40$ and more cheaper)
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by responsibletrad8r
Soybeans Trade Lower After a Bullish USDA ReportSoybeans Technicals (August): Yesterday’s USDA report put some pep in soybeans step right out of the gat, launching prices all they way up to technical resistance near $16.00. This is obviously a psychologically significant level, but it also represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the breakdown point from June 22nd. Despite the friendly report, the market couldn’t sustain the strength which led to long liquidation at the end of month/quarter. That failure has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning session. The market has retreaded back near our pivot pocket overnight, we’ve had that labeled in previous reports as 1533 ½. The Bulls need to defend this to prevent a further decline and retest of the June 24th lows, 1494 ¾. Below that is the 200-day moving average, 1456. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Rally Back to the Scene of the CrimeSoybeans Fundamentals: All eyes will be on tomorrow’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769. Technicals (August): The market has rallied back to our resistance pocket, which we labeled in yesterday’s report as 1560-1566. This pocket represents the secondary breakdown point from last week. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see a further extension take us into the mid 1590’2, which is the original scene of the crime, aka breakdown point from June 22nd. This would also be near a psychologically significant level, 1600. If these levels can hold, they would mark lower highs. We would be looking at bearish positioning at these levels if they can hold. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1451* Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Find Their Footing Soybeans Fundamentals: Soybean futures are higher this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed a drop in good/excellent conditions of 3%. Keep in mind that we are still 5% better than where we were at this time last year. All eyes will be on Thursday’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769. Technicals (August): Soybeans are higher this morning as the market works to retrace and recoup the losses from the big down day last week. In yesterday’s report we talked about our pivot pocket at 1533 ½, stating “If the Bulls are able to chew through this level, we could see a bigger relief rally take us back to the other breakdown points from last week, which are anywhere from 30 to 70 cents higher.”. With that in mind, we would not be surprised to see additional relief come into the market ahead of the USDA report on Thursday. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1451* Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Break Below Support Soybeans (July) Technicals: July soybean futures got hit hard last night and remain under pressure in the early morning trade. 4-star support from 1644 ¾-1650 looked as though it would hold into options expiration, with yesterday’s low coming in at 1647 ½. Those hopes evaporated quickly last night as the breakdown below support accelerated the selling, taking us down near our next support level, 1613 ¾. This level down to $16.00 is trendline support from February. The overnight low is 1610 ½. Previous support is now resistance, that comes in from 1644 ¾-1650. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1673-1679 ½***, 1700 ½-1702**, 1720-1728*** Pivot: 1644 ¾-1650 Support: 1613 ¾**, 1600**, 1578-1580 ½*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Under Pressure Soybeans Technicals: Soybeans broke lower yesterday, trading right into our 3-star support pocket, 1673-1679 ½. The Bulls have been unable to defend that pocket in the overnight/early morning trade which could take us to our next and more significant support pocket, 1644 ¾-1650. This pocket represents previously important price points and the 100-day moving average. Previous support will now act as our pivot pocket that the Bulls want to get back out above to neutralize the technical damage, that is the pocket mentioned earlier, 1673-1679 ½. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1700 ½-1702**, 1720-1728*** Pivot: 1673-1679 ½ Support: 1644 ¾-1650****, 1613 ¾** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
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