buyBuy at a fair price
how???
When the price moves towards the trend line without manipulation, we see the market's finger chart, which returns to it again, but not in the initial price, but only in the range that is defined for you.
XK1! trade ideas
What Hidden Forces Are Reshaping the Soybean Market’s Future?The soybean market stands at a crossroads, where familiar patterns of supply and demand are being challenged by a web of global forces. U.S. crops, though abundant, face domestic difficulties as adverse weather threatens yield projections. South America, poised to increase production, is battling its climate concerns, leaving traders and analysts questioning what the true state of global supply will be. Despite the current pessimistic outlook, is there more to this story than meets the eye?
On the demand side, the rising global appetite for vegetable oils, fueled by population growth and the biofuel industry, adds another layer of complexity. Yet, regulatory changes like the EU’s deforestation rules and China’s ongoing economic struggles continue to shape the trade landscape. How will these evolving dynamics impact global soybean trade flows, and what are the risks and opportunities hidden within?
As technological advancements in biotechnology and precision agriculture push the boundaries of efficiency and productivity, the soybean market finds itself on the cusp of transformation. Investors and traders must decipher this intricate puzzle, where geopolitical shifts, weather risks, and innovation collide. Will those who grasp the nuances of these forces be the ones to seize the emerging opportunities?
SOYBEANS - Are We Close to a Major Bottom? Cycles Say YES.Here is what I am currently watching for SOYBEANS.
-We need to be aware that there is a major bullish divergence setup (not trigger) developing on the quarterly & monthly charts. We need to pay close attention to this setup, because if triggered/confirmed, it implies a massive move up for Soybeans would be on the horizon.
-Interestingly, the Weekly chart has confirmed bullish divergence. The first target (1090) has not yet been hit, but in my opinion, it looks probable that Soybeans will hit that target (and possibly go as high as the second target (1179). This implies that I believe Soybeans is likely to rally at least 5% in the near future, and possibly rally as much as 10% from current price levels.
-I will be aggressive with taking profits on any short setups that present, due to the bullish weekly divergence that has triggered.
-Utilizing the Weekly MAC & Valuation methods, I note that this market is in an area where we can look for H6/Daily short trades. As mentioned in previous paragraph, I will utilize more aggressive targets.
-The cycles for Soybeans...wow, they are quite something. Decennial cycle suggests significant low being put in, APZ's suggest major low around October 4th, major 5 year cyclical low RIGHT NOW. Other temporary and permanent blended cycles suggest a major low right now. Composite of the 3 most similar years of price action also suggest a major low could happen soon, with a major rally to March 2025.
-A combination of the cycles and the major timeframe bullish divergences have me leaning somewhat towards calling a possible major bottom in the Soybeans market. I would prefer to see commercials COT positioning support this idea, which makes me think maybe we get another nice selloff into the August lows before the real bottom is in. But time will tell.
Soybean : Confluences from Phi numbersFurther to the pattern of the BAT formation and the objective of the head and shoulder formation stated earlier, we get to see the influence of the Phi numbers clustering which further support a high probable bottoming scenario.
The upward curl of the MACD supports the bottoming scenario.
Is Your Summer BBQ in Jeopardy?The seemingly innocuous drought in Brazil could have far-reaching consequences for global food supply chains. As the world's largest soybean exporter, Brazil's weather patterns significantly influence the availability and affordability of various food products.
The delayed planting of soybean crops due to dry conditions in Brazil is raising concerns about potential shortages and price hikes. This could have a ripple effect on the production of meat, poultry, and other food items that rely on soybeans as a key ingredient.
Beyond the immediate impact on soybean prices, the drought could also have broader implications:
Increased Food Costs: The shortage of soybeans could lead to higher prices for animal feed, ultimately affecting the cost of meat and poultry.
Disruptions in Food Processing: Industries that rely heavily on soybeans, such as food processing and biofuel production, may face disruptions due to limited supply.
Global Economic Impacts: The drought could have economic consequences beyond the food sector, affecting trade, transportation, and employment in related industries.
The question now is: How will the global food system adapt to this challenge?
As the world grapples with the implications of Brazil's drought, it is crucial to explore sustainable solutions and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts on food security and economic stability.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Soybeans (ZS)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish.
True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Are Beans Most Constructive Grain?Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybeans have been mixed in the overnight and early morning trade, but the short-term trend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact. Friday's move out above the 20-day moving average was the first of its kind since May 28th, which is also near where trendline resistance started to form. If the Bulls can use these old levels as support and defend them, it could keep the door open for continued relief with the next upside objective coming in from 1013-1018.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1013-1018**, 1031 3/4-1035***
Pivot: 1000-1006 1/2
Support: 984 3/4-991****, 950-955 1/4**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Upside Ahead for Soybeans - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Long
Soybeans (ZS)
I got long Soybeans last week. This week we see the COT strategy still giving us signals to be on alert for long trades in ZS if we get bullish signals on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials close to the longest they have been in the last 3 years.
Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold
ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed yet)
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Buy Signals
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
A Trade as Simple as "Shooting Ducks in A Barrel" Soybean ShortIf you follow my channel, you know I love to trade a strategy that I like to call "Ducks in a Barrel". Its a strategy that is as easy as shooting ducks in a barrel.
We have a setup forming on the Daily timeframe for the Soybeans market.
Step 1: Identify trend (I like to see the 52 & 39 period SMA's sloping strongly and pulling away from each other). In the case of Soybeans, we see a strong bearish trend.
Step 2: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERVALUED VS GOLD & US TREASURIES. We see with Soybeans, we are now overvalued on the Daily timeframe vs gold & treasuries. Assets that are overvalued in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL.
Step 3: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERBOUGHT. We see on the Daily stochastic that Soybeans are overbought. Assets that are overbought in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL.
Step 4: In a down trending market, we want to see advisor SENTIMENT become BULLISH. The advisors and general public are usually wrong, so when they become overly bullish in a strong down trend, we want to sell into that bullish sentiment.
Step 5: We can also look at accumulation/distribution indicators and momentum for further confirmation of our idea. But realistically, we just need to see 2 or more of the above indicators confluent with each other to have a setup market.
Step 6: For the Daily timeframe, I utilize the H4 chart for my entry. The safest entry is to wait for 2 full range days to form beneath the 18 period SMA, and from there market enter when the lowest low of these 2 candles is hit. There are other entry techniques to get into the market earlier, but they come with greater risk.
NOTE: If you follow my channel, you will know that I am long Soybeans based on my COT strategy. Commercials are close to the max long positioning of the last 3 years (bullish), OI grinding up on the multi-month down move caused by CM's (bullish), paunch forming (bullish), bearish weekly sentiment (bullish), undervalued on weekly vs gold and treasuries (bullish), major cyclical lows (bullish). I have different accounts for different strategies, as sometimes we get conflicting signals.
If you have any questions about these "ducks in a barrel" trade setups, feel free to give me a message.
As always, I wish you good luck & good trading.
Soybeans Reject New Lows Soybeans
Technicals (November)
Soybeans are attempting to bottom out, defending the lows from two weeks ago. The market is trading back in our pivot pocket, but what the Bulls really want to see a close above resistance from 984 3/4-991 to spur a bigger move. As mentioned yesterday, trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average are continuing their rapid decline, lowering the hurdle that the Bulls need to get out above for a chance at neutralizing the technical damage that has been done on the chart.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 984 3/4-991****, 1000-1006 1/2***
Pivot: 975 1/2-980
Support: 950-955 1/4**
Notes
Crop Progress: Good/excellent conditions for the U.S. soybean crop declined 1% from the previous week to 67%, that is in line with expectations.
Weekly Export Inspections: 411,165 Metric Tons (15,107,723 bushels), in line with expectations. Up from last week's 405,628 MT.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SOYBEANS - COT Based Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER. This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There is real risk involved with trading any market.
I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week.
Here is why.
-Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish.
-Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish.
-While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish.
-Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish.
-Undervalued vs gold and bonds.
-ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near.
-Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme).
-Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals.
-Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low.
For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers.
If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message.
Good luck, and good trading.
Soybean $ZS - market long NOWSwing trade is ON. We are expecting a bullish bounce before further downside.
Long at market price
Stop tight at previous low of $955
Target $1,018’s
Soybean : Head & ShoulderAdding to the possibility of the BAT formation , we have the Head and Shoulder pattern too that pressured prices. The objective from the pattern suggests support within that of the BAT coincidentally.
Bullish BAT formation for SoybeansA possible setup for the BAT formation in Soybeans is worth taking a look where XD retracement to 0.886@894, AB*1.618=CD@919 and extension of BC 2.618@960. That cluster is approaching.
Butterfly counts completeharmonic pattern and butterfly counts complete,,, lets see if we get the weekly reversal
What's Next for Soybeans?Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybean futures traded into support yesterday which we have had outlined as 1013-1014, that has so far held. A break and close below here and a peek below the psychologically significant $10.00 level seems inevitable. On the flip side, 1025-1031 3/4 continues to be the first hurdle, a pocket that was tested but failed against in yesterday's trade, with a high of 1028 3/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could propel prices back towards more significant resistance from 1041 3/4-1045. This pocket represents trendline resistance from the end of May peak, as well as the 20-day moving average, both of which have been acting as clear resistance points, as shown in the chart below.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1046-1050**, 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***
Pivot: 1025-1031 3/4
Support: 1013-1015***, 997-1000**
Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)
Old Crop: 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 376,400 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
New Crop: 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week's report came in at 632,100 MT.
Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report
Production: 4.473 billion bushels
Yield: 52.6 bushels per acre
Harvested Acres: 85.116 million
23/24 Ending Stocks: 350 million bushels
24/25 Ending Stocks: 470 million bushels
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Trade to New LowsSoybeans
Technicals (November)
As with corn, November soybeans were on the verge of a breakout move in the middle of last week's trade, but ultimately failed on Friday which has spilled into weakness and new lows in the early morning trade. Despite trading roughly 50 cents off Friday's high, the daily RSI is not yet registering as "oversold". Minor support near 1025 is still holding this morning, but a failure there and a drop to the psychologically significant $10.00 handle wouldn't be out of the question. 1046-1050 is the hurdle the Bulls want to get back out above to help repair some of the damage that has taken place over the last two trading sessions.
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts through July 23rd, 90% of which was short covering. That shrunk their net short position to 163,659 futures and options contracts. Broken down that is just 59,942 longs VS 223,601 shorts.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***, 1085 1/2-1087**
Pivot: 1046-1050
Support: 1025-1031 3/4**, 1000**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybean Futures Down to 791$Hello,
We've identified a current opportunity to Short Soybean Futures With a high probability in the 3-Month chart.
The target is set at $791 within a few Months.
Ibrouri
Soybean Futures Down to 791$Hello,
We've identified a current opportunity to Short Soybean Futures With a high probability in the 3-Month chart.
The target is set at $791 within a few Months.
Ibrouri
Soybeans Make New Lows. How Low Can We Go?Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybean made new lows yesterday and in the overnight trade but are attempting to find their footing as they trade back into positive territory this morning. The RSI is towards the lower end of the range from this year's trade with a reading of 29.45. The first barrier the Bulls want to get out above this morning comes in from 1085-1087, above that could spur a move towards the technically and psychologically significant 1097-1102 3/4 pocket. Our short-term bias is sitting at Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. Below is a 4-hour chart of November soybeans.
Soybean oil has been on our radar for the last several weeks. It had a nice move higher and a little pullback recently, but we still like the upside potential here. A move above 50 could spark a bigger move.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1097-1102****, 1111 1/2-1115***, 1138 1/2-1141***
Pivot: 1085-1087
Support: 1070-1071**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Watchlist for Week Ending 6/21/2024Starting this week i will be positing my watchlist for stocks and futures trades that are on my radar!
VPOC Moved Up and HVN Still Providing SupportTechnical:
Similar to yesterday, I'm bullish on beans. We have support below the current consolidation range and a lot of indications that we could see a strong move up after a bit more choppiness.
Fundamental
A little birdy known as Descartes Labs gave me some insight into the production forecasts for beans yesterday, and signs point to Wasde over-predicting end-of-season yield.
