What If I Told You... Soybeans Are Ripe for a Short? | COT StratFollow Me Down the Rabbit Hole: The Soybeans Market Setup for Shorts
What if I told you... the soybean market is on the verge of a paradigm shift? That the signals are all around you, hidden in plain sight, waiting for those who can read the code. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data is flashing red, and the truth is undeniable: the smart money is preparing for a downturn.
Take the red pill, and let’s decode why the path of least resistance points down.
The COT Index: A Matrix of Sell Signals
The COT Index is the Oracle, revealing the intentions of the market’s architects. Commercial traders – the ones who truly understand the construct – have loaded up on shorts at levels even more bearish than May. And they’re doing it at lower prices.
This isn’t just resistance to the rally. It’s a calculated move. A whisper in the system that the rally is but an illusion, built on a fragile code.
Overvalued in the Grand Simulation
When you step back and compare soybeans to the benchmarks of reality – gold, Treasuries, and the almighty DXY – their overvaluation becomes clear. The system’s balance demands equilibrium, and soybeans are poised to correct.
Sentiment: The False Prophet
The Advisor Sentiment Index reveals an uncomfortable truth: the herd is ecstatic. But as you’ve learned, the crowd rarely escapes the Matrix unscathed. Bullish sentiment at these extremes is a trap, and the smart money is already fading this illusion of strength.
Spread Divergence: Cracks in the Code
The spread divergence between the front-month and the next-month contracts is a glitch in the system. Short-term excitement isn’t aligning with the longer-term structure. When spreads diverge like this, it’s a signal: the construct is destabilizing.
Distribution: The Hidden Hand
The POIV (Price-Open Interest Volume) divergence reveals a pattern of distribution. The architects of the market are selling into the rally, while the unwitting masses continue to buy. The code doesn’t lie. This is the calm before the storm.
The Technical Trinity: %R, Stochastic, and Oscillator
Three powerful indicators align, pointing to an impending shift:
%R Indicator: Overbought and ready to turn.
Stochastic Oscillator: Rolling over, signaling exhaustion.
Ultimate Oscillator: Confirming the downward momentum.
Combine this with the down-sloping 52-day SMA, and the dominant trend reveals itself: the Matrix is designed to move lower.
Patience: The Key to the System
This isn’t a call to blindly short. No one escapes the system without discipline. Wait for the daily chart to confirm the trend change. Only then can you move with precision, ensuring that every move aligns with the code.
The Choice Is Yours
The soybean market is more than what it seems. The smart money, the sentiment extremes, the divergences – they all point to a single truth: this rally is an illusion. But as always, the choice is yours.
Will you take the blue pill and believe what you want to believe? Or take the red pill, follow me, and see how deep the COT hole really goes? The trend is your ally – until it isn’t. And this one is collapsing before your eyes.
Stay tuned, stay sharp, and remember: the Matrix rewards those who see beyond the veil.
Acknowledgment
The strategies and concepts taught in this class draw significant inspiration from the works and teachings of Larry Williams, a pioneer in trading and market analysis. His groundbreaking research and methodologies have shaped the foundation of modern trading education.
While this class incorporates Larry Williams’ principles, the content has been adapted and presented to reflect my own understanding and application of these ideas. Full credit is given to Larry Williams for his original contributions to the field of trading.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.
Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
XK1! trade ideas
Soybeans: Bullish Butterfly Pattern | What Traders Should ExpectCBOT:ZS1!
Soybeans: A Bullish Butterfly Pattern
Soybeans have recently completed a bullish butterfly pattern at $1018. This pattern suggests an expected price target of $1268, supported by strong bullish divergence signals.
Monitoring the Support Levels
We should closely monitor the support structure around $947. If this level holds, the bullish pattern remains intact. However, if the price breaks below this support, the pattern could shift into a bullish crab pattern, potentially targeting $810 at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
What Does This Mean for Traders?
Bullish Sentiment: The bullish butterfly pattern presents an opportunity for long positions with a target of $1268.
Risk Management: Be prepared with stop-loss orders, as the reversal pattern could fail, and the market might continue in the downtrend.
Support Levels: Watch the $947 support level closely. A break could indicate a shift in market direction.
Soybeans are currently in a bullish setup, with the potential for a price rise to $1268. However, stay alert to the $947 support level, as a break could signal a continuation of the downtrend towards $810.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
Soybean : A close up of a probable bottomFollowing up on the previous posting where confluences in technical support suggest a high probable bottoming in the longer term. This shorter term display suggests a possible 5 wave sequence up which may be the mother of another bull trend in the making. We can comfortably qualify our risk level here against the potential reward if this is the start of a bull phase.
What Hidden Forces Are Reshaping the Soybean Market’s Future?The soybean market stands at a crossroads, where familiar patterns of supply and demand are being challenged by a web of global forces. U.S. crops, though abundant, face domestic difficulties as adverse weather threatens yield projections. South America, poised to increase production, is battling its climate concerns, leaving traders and analysts questioning what the true state of global supply will be. Despite the current pessimistic outlook, is there more to this story than meets the eye?
On the demand side, the rising global appetite for vegetable oils, fueled by population growth and the biofuel industry, adds another layer of complexity. Yet, regulatory changes like the EU’s deforestation rules and China’s ongoing economic struggles continue to shape the trade landscape. How will these evolving dynamics impact global soybean trade flows, and what are the risks and opportunities hidden within?
As technological advancements in biotechnology and precision agriculture push the boundaries of efficiency and productivity, the soybean market finds itself on the cusp of transformation. Investors and traders must decipher this intricate puzzle, where geopolitical shifts, weather risks, and innovation collide. Will those who grasp the nuances of these forces be the ones to seize the emerging opportunities?
SOYBEANS - Are We Close to a Major Bottom? Cycles Say YES.Here is what I am currently watching for SOYBEANS.
-We need to be aware that there is a major bullish divergence setup (not trigger) developing on the quarterly & monthly charts. We need to pay close attention to this setup, because if triggered/confirmed, it implies a massive move up for Soybeans would be on the horizon.
-Interestingly, the Weekly chart has confirmed bullish divergence. The first target (1090) has not yet been hit, but in my opinion, it looks probable that Soybeans will hit that target (and possibly go as high as the second target (1179). This implies that I believe Soybeans is likely to rally at least 5% in the near future, and possibly rally as much as 10% from current price levels.
-I will be aggressive with taking profits on any short setups that present, due to the bullish weekly divergence that has triggered.
-Utilizing the Weekly MAC & Valuation methods, I note that this market is in an area where we can look for H6/Daily short trades. As mentioned in previous paragraph, I will utilize more aggressive targets.
-The cycles for Soybeans...wow, they are quite something. Decennial cycle suggests significant low being put in, APZ's suggest major low around October 4th, major 5 year cyclical low RIGHT NOW. Other temporary and permanent blended cycles suggest a major low right now. Composite of the 3 most similar years of price action also suggest a major low could happen soon, with a major rally to March 2025.
-A combination of the cycles and the major timeframe bullish divergences have me leaning somewhat towards calling a possible major bottom in the Soybeans market. I would prefer to see commercials COT positioning support this idea, which makes me think maybe we get another nice selloff into the August lows before the real bottom is in. But time will tell.
Soybean : Confluences from Phi numbersFurther to the pattern of the BAT formation and the objective of the head and shoulder formation stated earlier, we get to see the influence of the Phi numbers clustering which further support a high probable bottoming scenario.
The upward curl of the MACD supports the bottoming scenario.
Is Your Summer BBQ in Jeopardy?The seemingly innocuous drought in Brazil could have far-reaching consequences for global food supply chains. As the world's largest soybean exporter, Brazil's weather patterns significantly influence the availability and affordability of various food products.
The delayed planting of soybean crops due to dry conditions in Brazil is raising concerns about potential shortages and price hikes. This could have a ripple effect on the production of meat, poultry, and other food items that rely on soybeans as a key ingredient.
Beyond the immediate impact on soybean prices, the drought could also have broader implications:
Increased Food Costs: The shortage of soybeans could lead to higher prices for animal feed, ultimately affecting the cost of meat and poultry.
Disruptions in Food Processing: Industries that rely heavily on soybeans, such as food processing and biofuel production, may face disruptions due to limited supply.
Global Economic Impacts: The drought could have economic consequences beyond the food sector, affecting trade, transportation, and employment in related industries.
The question now is: How will the global food system adapt to this challenge?
As the world grapples with the implications of Brazil's drought, it is crucial to explore sustainable solutions and strategies to mitigate the potential impacts on food security and economic stability.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Soybeans - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Soybeans (ZS)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in ZS if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. I note that I am already long as this market has been giving a buy signal for a few weeks.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials hovering around max long of last 3 years - bullish.
OI Analysis: "Bubble Up" in net positioning between commercials and large specs - bullish. Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the increase in OI". When the OI increase is caused by Commercials adding to longs, it is bullish.
True Seasonal: Major seasonal low end of September and up to February.
COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R, UO, Stochastic & Confirmed Momentum Shift.
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
Are Beans Most Constructive Grain?Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybeans have been mixed in the overnight and early morning trade, but the short-term trend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact. Friday's move out above the 20-day moving average was the first of its kind since May 28th, which is also near where trendline resistance started to form. If the Bulls can use these old levels as support and defend them, it could keep the door open for continued relief with the next upside objective coming in from 1013-1018.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1013-1018**, 1031 3/4-1035***
Pivot: 1000-1006 1/2
Support: 984 3/4-991****, 950-955 1/4**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Upside Ahead for Soybeans - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
Long
Soybeans (ZS)
I got long Soybeans last week. This week we see the COT strategy still giving us signals to be on alert for long trades in ZS if we get bullish signals on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Extreme Positioning: Commercials close to the longest they have been in the last 3 years.
Valuation: Undervalued VS Gold
ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed yet)
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Buy Signals
Remember, this is not a "Buy Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
A Trade as Simple as "Shooting Ducks in A Barrel" Soybean ShortIf you follow my channel, you know I love to trade a strategy that I like to call "Ducks in a Barrel". Its a strategy that is as easy as shooting ducks in a barrel.
We have a setup forming on the Daily timeframe for the Soybeans market.
Step 1: Identify trend (I like to see the 52 & 39 period SMA's sloping strongly and pulling away from each other). In the case of Soybeans, we see a strong bearish trend.
Step 2: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERVALUED VS GOLD & US TREASURIES. We see with Soybeans, we are now overvalued on the Daily timeframe vs gold & treasuries. Assets that are overvalued in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL.
Step 3: In a down trending market, we want to see an asset become OVERBOUGHT. We see on the Daily stochastic that Soybeans are overbought. Assets that are overbought in a strong downtrend are assets that we want to SELL.
Step 4: In a down trending market, we want to see advisor SENTIMENT become BULLISH. The advisors and general public are usually wrong, so when they become overly bullish in a strong down trend, we want to sell into that bullish sentiment.
Step 5: We can also look at accumulation/distribution indicators and momentum for further confirmation of our idea. But realistically, we just need to see 2 or more of the above indicators confluent with each other to have a setup market.
Step 6: For the Daily timeframe, I utilize the H4 chart for my entry. The safest entry is to wait for 2 full range days to form beneath the 18 period SMA, and from there market enter when the lowest low of these 2 candles is hit. There are other entry techniques to get into the market earlier, but they come with greater risk.
NOTE: If you follow my channel, you will know that I am long Soybeans based on my COT strategy. Commercials are close to the max long positioning of the last 3 years (bullish), OI grinding up on the multi-month down move caused by CM's (bullish), paunch forming (bullish), bearish weekly sentiment (bullish), undervalued on weekly vs gold and treasuries (bullish), major cyclical lows (bullish). I have different accounts for different strategies, as sometimes we get conflicting signals.
If you have any questions about these "ducks in a barrel" trade setups, feel free to give me a message.
As always, I wish you good luck & good trading.
Soybeans Reject New Lows Soybeans
Technicals (November)
Soybeans are attempting to bottom out, defending the lows from two weeks ago. The market is trading back in our pivot pocket, but what the Bulls really want to see a close above resistance from 984 3/4-991 to spur a bigger move. As mentioned yesterday, trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average are continuing their rapid decline, lowering the hurdle that the Bulls need to get out above for a chance at neutralizing the technical damage that has been done on the chart.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 984 3/4-991****, 1000-1006 1/2***
Pivot: 975 1/2-980
Support: 950-955 1/4**
Notes
Crop Progress: Good/excellent conditions for the U.S. soybean crop declined 1% from the previous week to 67%, that is in line with expectations.
Weekly Export Inspections: 411,165 Metric Tons (15,107,723 bushels), in line with expectations. Up from last week's 405,628 MT.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
SOYBEANS - COT Based Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER. This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There is real risk involved with trading any market.
I am looking for longs in the Soybean market this week.
Here is why.
-Commercials are positioned very long relative to their overall positioning over the last 6 months, which is bullish.
-Commercials are approaching the max long positioning of the last 3 years, which is bullish. Admittedly, I'd like to see them at a bit more of an extreme. But they are relatively very long right now, which is a valid reason to be bullish.
-While price has declined for weeks, OI has increased. When OI is increasing, we must ask the question "who is causing the OI increase"? If OI is being increased by commercials, this is bullish.
-Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is bullish.
-Undervalued vs gold and bonds.
-ADX is forming the "paunch" as the ADX rises over 40. Paunch will confirm when ADX "rolls over". The paunch is relatively rare, but when it occurs, we need to pay attention as a market reversal of some significance is near.
-Small specs are overall quite short (although similarly to the commercial positioning, I'd like to see them at more of an extreme).
-Insider accumulation, %$ and Ultimate oscilator all giving buy signals.
-Some major cyclical signs suggesting Soybeans are at a major cyclical low.
For these reasons, I'm long Soybeans and will look to get more long with future entry triggers.
If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message.
Good luck, and good trading.