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XW1! trade ideas

Wheat: double top or more to come?Concerns over weather and the potential for climate anomalies have seen a bullish trend in wheat recently. However and as analysts are at pains to point out, fundamentals on the ground like ample supply are still bearish. But now that wheat has broken through the 200MA in white and consolidated, it's possible that bullish sentiment may remain into the new week. A break back under the 200 that then becomes resistance again will mean that this was another double top, similar to June-July and December 2023. But TA-wise, if the price can stay above the 200 daily until the 50MA catches up, then climate concerns and a golden cross may rally bulls towards the weekly 200MA. Not financial advice.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by R0llins_
5
Wheat vs 200MA: can it hold?Rain forecasts in Russia have led to profit taking in wheat, but the question remains how bullish (as opposed to short covering) was this rally? If the price can keep its head above the 200MA, TA-wise longs may be worth accumulating. While professional analysis points out that wheat's fundamentals in terms of oversupply are still very bearish, and thus an opportunity to sell down the rally and possible double-top if the 200MA wins out, it's worth keeping in mind whether another set of fundamentals - increasing yearly odds of extreme climate events and anomalies - has been adequately priced in. Not investment advice, der.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by R0llins_
Wheat vs the Daily 200MAWheat has been in a price normalization phase after the potential catastrophe of Russia's full scale invasion of its democratic neighbor. Since June 23, bulls have made several attempt to break and hold the daily 200MA, shown in green circles above. The first four attempts can be read as two sets of double tops. Even if this rally can't hold the 200, chances of another double top are worth considering. However, unlike the previous double top attempts on the daily 200, the 50MA in orange is turning up towards the 200 and thus a second attempt at a golden cross may not be far off. The 100MA, in light blue, is almost there already, though of less significance. Record harvests aside, increasing climate anomalies and the depravities of wars of aggression suggest this market may experience volatility going forwards. As with all my posts, this is not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by R0llins_
Wheat: Bulls are Back! 🐂Wheat is once again showing its bullish side and is taking the first upward step out of the sideways movement of recent weeks. In the further course, the price should now continue the blue wave (c) and complete the superordinate wave A in turquoise. Following this, we expect a sell-off. Within the framework of our alternative scenario, however, it remains 37% likely that the price will once again fall below the support level at USX 495.25 in order to make a lower low of wave Alt. (b).
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Wheat Holding at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat Aligning with SupportWheat 2 years after topping out at the PCZ of a Bearish Shark that initiated a downtrend in 2022, has now come back to the top side of the range wheat traded in between the years of 2016 and 2020 before ultimately confirming the bottom at the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley in 2019 and breaking free to the upside of the trading range in late 2020. Now that wheat has found its way back down here at this previous resistance zone, we can see that it has formed a Bullish Bat structure on the way down which aligns with the old resistance and that it is currently attempting to be supported by the 200-period moving average on the 2-week timeframe. We can likely assume that as the Baltic Dry Index continues higher, wheat will regain it's 2021 highs along with many other agricultural goods and that this will have an inflationary effect overall. In the related ideas section I will leave a setup for BDRY which is the ETF that tracks the Baltic Dry Index and I will also leave the DBA which is an ETF that holds the futures contracts for various different agricultural goods such as corn, wheat, sugar, and more related items. I will also leave setups for two Dry Bulk and Containership Charterers. Lastly I will provide my harmonic Inflation Rate projections.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by RizeSenpai
1
Wheat Market And The Potential Catalysts Building UpIn this video I go over one of my favorite markets the Wheat market and its current conditions and it's developing stories from dryness in the Kansas City Area a major producer of HRW wheat to war torn Ukraine and potential disruptions there. And with a market that is very heavily shorted by large managed money speculators this leaves a market very vulnerable to sharp short covering spikes like we saw today. Overall I would still be careful I am personally am waiting for a retest of the current breakout but with us closing above the 50 day moving average and some potential catalysts beginning brewing I believe there could be opportunities that the majority of people will just shrug off. So stay tuned for more I defiently plan on making more videos about wheat and corn and feel free to message me I am always trying to learn more! CBOT:ZW1! CBOT:KE1! CBOT_MINI:XW1! CBOT_MINI:MKC1! AMEX:WEAT
CBOT_MINI:XW1!Long
by FlippaTheShippa
4
Can wheat break above previous trendline support?Wheat Technicals (May) Wheat futures shot higher overnight but got stonewalled by what was previously trendline support (now resistance). A failure to close out above 550-555 keeps the Bear camp in control with a potential retest of the lows still in play. Further escalation in the Middle East could turn the tide back to Bullish. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 537-540***, 525** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWK2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Wheat Breaks Below SupportWheat Technicals (May) May wheat futures broke lower yesterday, after struggling to maintian price action above trendline support in the previous two sessions. This has the Bear camp back in the driver’s seat as we officially enter the back half of the week. A close back above 550-555 would neutralize the recent bearish action. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 537-540*, 525 Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWK2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Wheat Futures Riding a Fine LineWheat Technicals (May) May wheat futures traded in a wide range yesterday, on both sides of unchanged. This morning, prices are attempting to firm as the market revisits our pivot pocket from 550-555. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above this pocket to spur a move back towards the recent highs. A failure to do so could put the Bears in the driver's seat. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 537-540***, 525** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZW1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
CBOT wheat down on good crop conditions, forecast for more rainChicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures declined for a second straight session on Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated the winter crop at its highest early spring level in five years. -The market was also pressured by crop-boosting rains forecast for the southern U.S. Plains wheat belt and by limited U.S. export demand due to cheaper grain offered by rival suppliers. -CBOT May soft red winter wheat ended 11-3/4 cents lower at $5.45-1/2 a bushel. -K.C. May hard red winter wheat fell 12-1/4 cents to end at $5.63-1/4 per bushel, and MGEX May spring wheat MWEK24 ended down 7-1/4 cents at $6.27-1/2. -The USDA on Monday said 56% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was is good to excellent condition, the highest for this time of the season since 2019. -India has asked global and domestic trade houses to avoid buying new-season wheat from local farmers to help the government-backed Food Corporation of India procure large quantities to shore up its depleting reserves.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Khairil_Anuar
CBOT wheat rebounds on technical buying, short coveringChicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rebounded on Wednesday after two sessions of losses as technical buying and short covering lifted the market. CBOT May soft red winter wheat ended 10-3/4 cents higher at $5.56 a bushel. The benchmark contract fell to a one-week low early in the session but found technical chart support at its 20-day moving average. Commodity funds hold a sizable net short position in CBOT wheat futures, leaving the market open to short-covering rallies. A softer dollar was also supportive as it makes U.S. grains more competitive globally. K.C. May hard red winter wheat settled up 17-1/4 cents at $5.80-1/2 per bushel after earlier falling to its lowest since March 6. MGEX May spring wheat ended up 12 cents at $6.39-1/2 a bushel.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Khairil_Anuar
CBOT wheat ends lower on higher crop condition outlookChicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures fell on Monday as traders expected the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to report the strongest winter crop ratings in eight years in a weekly report due for release later in the day. Wheat futures were also pressured by large global stocks and limited U.S. export demand as rival suppliers are offering their shipments at lower prices. CBOT May soft red winter wheat ended 3-1/4 cents lower at $5.57 a bushel. K.C. May hard red winter wheat fell 9-3/4 cents to end at $5.75-1/2 per bushel, and MGEX May spring wheat ended down 10-1/4 cents at $6.34-3/4. The USDA is due to release its weekly crop condition estimates at 3:00 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT). Reuters expect winter wheat to be rated 57% good to excellent, which would be the highest for this time of the season since 2016. On average, also expect the USDA to report spring wheat at 2% planted as of Sunday. The USDA on Monday morning said export inspections of U.S. wheat in the week ended March 28 totaled 498,989 metric tons, above trade estimates for up to 425,000 tons.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Khairil_Anuar
Wheat @ $540Wheat prices are high, Over the month you will notice this change and so you may be asking yourself why? -- The wheat prices are linked to how well the economy is doing, knowing this, about its prices you will see by looking at the chart, That determines this. -- According to Reuters, China has cancelled buying wheat, this affects the global wheat prices. -- Australia is in a farming season, and for this reason the government is countering the wheat planting time affected by adverse weather conditioning -- Wheat is a big global market in the east and southeast of Asia Right now Australia is the global leader in wheat, beating Ukraine and Russia. -- This is the right time to plant wheat and sell to the Middle East and the rest of the world. -- Rocket Boost this content to learn more. -- Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Warning you will lose money from trading, and so you should learn risk management.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by lubosi
WHEAT; ZW: A resistance turned supportA monthly bulldiv, a resistance turned support, and a falling wedge on the monthly that is breaking out (to the right) now, what else do you need? In the Grain complex, farmers have stubbornly held onto their stores past the December 2023 sale period because they didn't like the prices. The storage basis has ticked up since then. Maybe one more month of high basis to really make the storers give up and sell what they've got in the bin. I mean why would you plant more when you still have stuff in the bin? Then I think the new planting season data in Mar/April we will find that planting is underweight on wheat, probably *still* overweight soybeans, and this is just very predictable stuff. Bin stores Down, planting down ---> Price up Fading the Soybean mania vs grain complex spread is a very easy agriculture trade. I already did that in a prior Rice vs Soybeans trade. Now Rice is at ATH and Soybeans is down, not because I am that good but because this trade is that easy. The same will happen in grains, which are depressed atm. Remember that livestock feed can be switched to Wheat or Oats or Corn at a moment's notice, and Soybean meal can get removed. This means new bids. On the chart I really like $9.00 a bushel, just a great mean reversion target, don't get greedy just go for mean reversion. 58% is a tonne of PnL!
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by wantonwallet