XW1! trade ideas
Shorts on Soybean and Wheat FuturesWyckoff Analysis:
1) Both soybean and wheat futures rallied alongside the market for the past week or so. Now, they've both failed to make new highs and distributed for a few days. I like continuation of the longer-term trend.
Week 13/Su - ZW1! - WeekendMost bullish commercials have been in 20 years, im loading up my entire boat with wheat futures
Wheat / Trendline RetestIt"s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples.
Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the
corona virus pandemic . (Bloomberg)
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People Need move Food During the Corona VirusDuring the coronavirus, the Demand for certain commodities like Wheat will Increase drastically.
Curfews, lockdowns, Marial Law = People stay home and eat more = rush on Supermarkets for breads, flour etc.
Price gonna head way up!
Wheat Long term Target 311Wheat also indicating, that #Deflation not over yet! Major decline to come before SECULAR BOTTOM is in
WHEATLike other commodities Wheat dropped down more than 15% becasue of coronavirus effect. By statistics the March-May is a bullish period for Wheat futures. Meantime humankind demand for wheat definitely will not drop, as we need to eat even when it is phandemic. On the other hand the supply issues due to coronavirus can boost the price as well. The price range between 480-490$ per bushel can be good zone for long trades
Don't weed this out from your portfolioyes, many commodities were not spared during the recent virus attack but this wheat has been climbing up nicely along the bullish trend line.
There is more room up there once it breaks the resistance at 5932.
ZW1 in a strong uptrendThe setup that I am using here is considered to be going against the trend. I'm looking for a small retracement to capture a 1:1 target ratio and make small gains. Normally, I would not attempt this trade, as it goes against my trading plan, but I have a strong conviction that buyers are exhausted and that sellers will come in at the zone drawn on the chart.
Long Term Prospects for WHEATUSDThe WHEATUSD, symbol ZW, is in a rally within a Bear Market with price trading above the 50 week ema and the 200 ema, but below the 800 week ema. The the long term emas are mostly flat, signaling accumulation / distribution. The price action appears to be finishing up the e-wave of a b-wave which should resolve in a c-wave down into late Spring. There is a definite Seasonal aspect to this market with strong rallies that occur around June time frame.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the daily, with price above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 and 800 emas. The 50 ema is in a strong uptrend along with the long term emas.. Price is topping out in the c-wave of a a-b-c rally and looks like it is putting in a M-Top. Price can be considered to be in an uptrend as long as it is above 549’2.
The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price trading back above the 50 ema, which is above the 200 ema, and above the 800 ema. Price is now technically correcting, having pulled back to the 30 ema, which is a warning. This market is out of E-waves. Probably trade up in the back end of the coming week to finish out an M-Top formation, before starting a greater down-trend.
This is my WHEATUSD look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Opportunity to Sell Wheat (ZW1!)Hi Again,
Sharing my trade with whoever's interested. Wheat is at an all time high, i'm expecting it to correct.
See diagram above for more information.
All the best and keen to hear your thoughts if you have a different view.
Wishing you only the best.
-KAYJ9009-
Bearish on grains & wheatBeen a while since I posted about agri.
Price is around its average now, I see no reason for it to skyrocket.
I don't think this little rally is a new trend, I see it as a correction.
And the short term uptrend is probably just noise that kindly comes fill my shorts.
Technically the price around 490-495 is a sweet spot to short this which makes it interesting.
We let the amateurs trade everything to make sure they don't miss out.
Market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent so use a stop loss.
And also, it's not 100% sure the price is supposed to go down, might be wrong.
So in any case, stop loss (or something else) is good.
