Short Wheat ZW1!US Wheat (Chicago) hit the upper line of the triangle I draw in the weekly chart. This line - for now - hold and wheat did not move higher.
Furthermore, volume did not really increased during the upmove of the last two to three days. This is even more striking in the weekly chart, where volume decreased in the last three weeks while wheat moved up.
This is a strong signal for falling prices.
On the fundamental side:
The US Dollar Index broke out of its triangle and is about to move higher in the next couple of weeks.
The Ruble devalued further against the US Dollar Index.
Both are important reasons for falling US Wheat prices.
But: Spring wheat seedings are behind - in the US and Russia (this is especially important for Russia). This might have a strong effect on Chicago Wheat. If Wheat moves above the upper triangle line / breaks out, then this is the reason.
Therefore, a close stop should be put in place a little bit above the (blue) uppper triangle line.
The next support line is at around 478.
