WHEAT - wave [v] of 5 startedWe've got a possible wave {iv}, which was ended under the 144 SMA. So, there's an opportunity to have wave {v} of 5 in the short term.
XW1! trade ideas
CBoT wheat close to a bottom but not there yetWheat:
Nothing much to add to our last week's outlook on this chart and price has been following our preferred route quite precisely. Price is now approaching the descending resistance trend line at 407 Monday and at 406 Tuesday with an additional and crucial resistance at 411. As long as price does not break the 411 mark to the upside we maintain our bear bias and do not yet call for a bottom in this market. We are close, however.
CBoT Wheat still waiting for the bottom to formWheat:
We keep our short term bias unchanged and we are still anticipating a bit further decline in price. Thus far price has been following our preferred path reasonably well although the minor correction up started a bit earlier than what we would have thought. From here we expect a little more upside move on Tuesday after which we expect price to continue it move to the downside and reach for the 370/350 level after which we will start looking for a pattern to see whether or not the bottom is finally there.
Loss of bearish momentumLooking at Heikin-Ashi signal we may have a local bottom after the serious selloff. Some consolidation or a pull back to 404-410 is possible, but the main structure remains bearish.
Bullish key reversal points are higher at 418 and 438
Christmas wheatieswheat has been pushed down hard on large crop volume and seems like good time to take a shot, will use a calendar spread to reduce cash required
CBoT wheat waiting for the bottomWheat:
Price took an impressive beating of 8.5% for the week with especially Friday's session being very weak with a 4% decline in value. The move of Friday was very decisive and volatile which is a very strong indication that more decline is to be expected during the coming week. There is no tradable bottom in this market just as yet and we will need to allow price another 7-10% decline before we can think of a tradable low. Even though we now feel that we have a clear vision on what is to come it is by far too late to entertain a short play but at the same time it is too early to consider a long play. Lean back, relax, wait & see.
Be careful with continous contract charts!The latest spike on this chart happened only because the data provider switched from September ZWU6 to next front contract December ZWZ6. As Dec is trading higher because of curve contango (ZWU6 price is 408 right now), the change in underlying contract temporarely distorts indicators on the chart, however also calls our attention to possible new setups and patterns.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is bearish
- Heikin-Ashi is swing bullish, but even with higher ZWZ6 price it looks like haDelta is turning down. This shows the market is still under selling pressure
- MACD and EWO ticks up, but both are still bearish.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral due to contract switch, but if you'd replace price with still tradable ZWU6, that shows we are at the lows again.
- Heikin-Ashi has bearish indication.
- What should we focus at? I think if ZWU6 holds above 400 before contract maturity next week, that would make a possible double bottom on the "old' setup. If we translate this to the new setup with ZWZ6, that would make a possible Kijun retest ard 422-425. So in case December Wheat gives a buy signal around 425 support, we'll have an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with possibly 460-480 target later.
Strategy: wait until ZWZ6 price gets lower to Kijun Sen. Look for a buy signal there. Enter 1 unit long in case of valid signal. Increase to 2-3 units if price confirms and market breaks above 440 later.
CBoT wheat neutralWheat:
We have rolled over to the DEC16 contract.
Price action is not really giving away a lot and has been puzzling us more than one time during the past months. The descending wedge that we see in this chart usually is a reversal pattern from where price aggressively trades up but the break out of the upper line of same wedge was't really impulsive.
We are going to lean back and take a 'wait & see' attitude on this chart for one or two weeks.
wheatjust touched down on a 15 year trend line a few weeks back. will be longing wheat until the thin downward trend line
long wheatJust touched down on a 15 year trend not too long ago. watch for the highlighted area to buy in or wait until it comes back down to that bottom trend line. RSI currently heading up. I will be longing wheat until it hits the thin downward trend line
CBoT wheat still waiting for the short play entry opportunityWheat:
Price has not made to corrective move up during last week as per anticipation but rather kept moving sideways with a rather volatile session last Friday.
We keep our views unchanged but have to accept that the timing will be later than what we were initially expecting. Consequently we have moved the preferred path in time. We are waiting for the move to the 345/355 level to see whether we can call for a tradable top there and we expect same (again) to appear during the coming week.
WHEAT BUY OPPORTUNITTYwe are at 07 lows, do you see what happened in 08 when the collapse happened? What do you think will happen when our economy collapses again and we enter hyper inflation? Commodity prices SOAR! You know we have a bond bubble, student loan bubble, auto loan bubble, our economy is in major debt! So what happens when we go bankrupt? Our paper assets are gone. Clear buy
CBoT wheat Wheat:
Price has performed a 'Bullish Engulfing' last week which usually is a reliable reversal pattern although it need reconfirmation. Price also settled above the short term resistance level last Friday which gives the BE more credibility. We expect price to make a swing up from here to the 450/460 zone where we expect price to reverse for a 15% move to the downside and which would actually offer a short play opportunity.
