wheat futures look bullish for a new set up. $zw1bull case for wheat set up, if history repeats we get a nice curve to a pump.
XW1! trade ideas
2hr Wheat FuturesWheat Futures for the next bight- 2 hour chart---
Trying to adjust the market a certain way; over the next 2 years---
we will see what happens over; next 6 months
Wheat 609 Days from 609 low in July 2021Wheat 609 Days from 609 low in July 2021, did it square out for a run up?
Opening (Margin): /ZW April 21st 725/735 Long Call Vertical... for a 4.25 debit.
Comments: Taking a small directional shot in wheat here on weakness with a bullish assumption long call vertical. $287.50 max on buying power of $212.50 with a 729.25 break even.
What commodities will move in the 2nd year Russia-Ukraine War Russia-Ukraine War entered the second year. Most of the commodities skyrocketed after the invasion had returned to or below the pre-war level. Energy is the market focus but the price dropped below the pre-war level and might not have enough geopolitical moment to rebound unless the war fully escalates and spreads to other countries. The weakness of wheat price might reverse if Russia refuse to renew the export deal.
Energy products are the main focus in this war since Russia is the world’s key energy exporter. NYMEX WTI crude oil price started from USD92.10 as of the close of 23 Feb 2022, and reached an intraday high of USD130.5 per barrel in March. NYMEX Natural gas is even more volatile, jumped from USD4.623 per MMBtu to reach over USD10 in August. However, despite the sanction and price cap imposed by western countries, the energy exports from Russia maintained at high level, and European winter weather is relatively mild together with the effort to secure supply from non-Russia energy sources, the supply and demand situation is much less bad than many had feared, and the energy price retreated significantly and dropped below pre-war level. As of 24 Feb 2023, NYMEX Natural gas closed at USD2.548, while NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at USD76.32.
Assuming the war are restricted in Ukraine and haven’t spread to other European countries, the war will no longer have a material impact on energy price. Western countries don’t want to shut down Russia’s energy supply completely, they just don’t want Russia to make a lot of money from energy exports to finance the war. The ideal situation is Russia selling cheap oil and gas to global market. In fact, Russia is still exporting a lot of their energy products to China and India, and the reduced demand from them in the global market pressured the price. I can’t predict the outcome of a war, but a win by Ukraine might further pressure the energy price since Russia might probably need to aggressively sell their energy for war compensation and rebuilding the country. Even the war maintains the status quo for an extended period of time, it will not stimulus the energy price like last year since many countries had already reduced the reliance on Russia’s energy.
What I worry more is grain price. Russia and Ukraine together are supplying one third of global wheat. Many of the Ukrainian grain planted in the Southern and Central part of the country, that had been seriously affected by war. Ukrainian grain exports dropped nearly 30% in the last marketing year. Not only the plantation area will be affected, all the input including labour, fertilizer and chemical supply are also affected, not to mention the harvest and the logistic to export the grain. Grain export deal with Russia is expiring on 19 March, whether Russia will renew it could be a catalyst for market movement, and the lower price of Ukrainian grain because of this uncertainty might also reduce farmer’s willingness to plant wheat.
Russian grain production hasn’t been affected yet; in fact, the harvest of wheat is pretty good. When energy crisis didn’t realize, whether Russia will weaponize grain will need further monitor. At this moment, grain export is not targeted by western countries, so Russia might try to export as many grains as possible to improve their financial situation, but if the war situation turned sour, I can’t rule out the possibility of some form of export ban which might make the inflation situation in western countries more complicated.
CBOT wheat price started from USX 884.75 as of the close of Feb 23, and reached an intraday high of USX 1363.5 per bushel in March. As of 24 Feb 2023, it closed at USX 721.75. Of course, the weakness could also be explained by bumper crop from Australia and an expected high US production in the coming year. Technically USX 712.5 is an important support, and RSI is approaching oversold level. We might consider a long position @ 715, stop loss @ 680, target @ 800.
Disclaimers
Above information are for illustration only and there is no guarantee on the accuracy of the information. They should not be treated as investment recommendations or advices.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheatAgricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared.
However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level.
It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar.
Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices
In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons.
However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support.
Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook.
Tighter supply on the global sugar market
Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane.
In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production.
This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop.
The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market.
Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions
Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe.
The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices.
Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons.
Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market.
Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels.
Sources
1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023
2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022
3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022
May Wheat futures: Daily trend reversalThis setup can lead to a larger failure of a weekly decline signal, which could cause a major move in $ZW_F. I'm long May futures here, paying close attention to how it develops, if the signal isn't stopped the trade could be held for longer until the chart evolves into a higher timeframe trend potentially, that would be the ideal scenario here.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
WHEAT BULLISH SCENARIOWHEAT agriculture commodity will always be one of the most significant for the survival of the human race. Production, export, and import have been under heavy hits for the past 3 years, especially the past 11 months during the invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is a major producer and exporter, as we follow the conflict we can easily determine that plays a significant factor in price speculations and it has been very fruitful for day threaders and short-term traders. On the 1hr chart, we can study 2 findings, resistance level at 800' an uptrend channel with a 50$-60$ volatility range. Bulls can pursue reaching that resistance and hope for a break.
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Wheat Addressing Momentum DivergenceIn this update we review the recent price action in the Wheat futures contract and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
Drought, war, oil price, inflation (despite recession) -price upHello,
We have a lot of factors to push price of WHEAT to next level.
1. Drought in USA (2023). It can affected results of harvest in this year.
2. War in Ukraine and "super danger" aggressions from Russia (both economics will be damaged - for agriculture).
3. Also we are expecting that the Price of Oil (Brand) will grow up from 85$ to 115$ (November 2023). Hello, Mr. Buffett!
4. New War of FED with inflation can be additional trigger for commodities and food .
God bless your investments and your families!
Wheat Futures 1W short targetThe signals in the chart point towards a likely continuation of the recent drop with a short target at around $560.
Wheat about to go places again . 1200 is coming up44 cents is around the corner , i think wheat this year will hit 1200.
Wheat looks weakI don't often play agg futures but this opportunity sticks out to me and I couldn't resist.
Wheat Futures Are Simple (Bullish)Technical Double Bottom
Wait for breakout with Jupu green tag and then pullback to fibs/green shade on Jupu
Wheat Double BottomWhen ZW hit the daily support level the second time, it bounced drastically, that's a Sign of Strength (SOS).
Perfect buy opurtunity for Wheat $ZWWheat made a triple botten past year and a double bottem last month. It will go to privious high's
ZW1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 740.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 758.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and recent high are. Take profit will be at 723.50, where the previous swing low is.
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Agricultural Commodities - When the Big Elephant Left the RoomCBOT: CBOT:ZW1! , CBOT:ZS1! , CBOT:ZC1! , CME:HE1!
This is the second report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”.
US inflation began to pick up in March 2021 and rose rapidly throughout the year. Federal Reserve officials told Americans not to worry. It was due to supply chain issues and comparisons to low baseline numbers in 2020 when economies were shut down.
After CPI rose to 7.0% in December, the Fed voted to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% on January 26th, 2022. Inflation would be “transitory”. Just ignore the big elephant in the room and it would go away. That’s the prevailing thinking at the time.
Then a military conflict took place in the former Soviet bloc. The war shock and ensuing impact from embargo of Russian products pushed the prices of commodities, from gold, nickel, crude oil, natural gas, to winter wheat and many others to record high. On March 16th, the Fed raised rate by 25 basis points with a change of heart. This baby step turned into the most intense battle against inflation with seven consecutive rate hikes.
“Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” and “High Rate, Low Price” became the dominant theme of the global commodities market. Many commodities gave up early gains and priced at or below prewar levels. US headline inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June and Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) topped in September. They have come down ever since.
2022 was all about geopolitical crises and central bank actions. Along with investor sentiment, they dominated market trends. Economic fundamentals have been left largely unnoticed.
Outlook for 2023
In the new year, these macro factors would likely stay in the back burners. When the big elephant left the room, fundamentals in each market would once again drive commodities prices. Commodities markets might be less volatile compared to last year.
One notable exception is China. The government ended its strict Zero-Covid policies on December 7th. From January 8th, Chinese tourists would be hitting popular travel destinations around the world, after nearly three-year absence. Normalization of daily life and business activity will not only boost China’s economy, but also lend needed support to the global economy which many believe to be on the verge of a recession.
However, surges in Covid cases raise the risk of new and more deadly virus. By one estimate, up to one billion people are already Covid-positive in China. This is one-eighth of the world population! For a thorough analysis of China’s re-opening and its impact, please check out my previous report, The Rise and Fall of Chinese Yuan.
This concludes a high-level overview before we move to discuss what all these mean for agricultural commodities in 2023.
Fundamental Supply and Demand Built on Higher Baseline
While the big elephant has left, it still casts a shadow in the room. Inflation is sticky. Rate increases have lasting impacts long after the hikes are over.
This is evident in food costs. Inflation pushed the cost of producing, processing, distributing, and selling agricultural products to a high level. November CPI for food items was 10.6%, much higher than the headline CPI of 7.1%. The cost for food at home grew 12% annually, indicating a rapid rise in grocery prices. There are no rate cuts nor deflation in sight. This means that food costs will continue to go up, although at a slower pace.
Wheat, corn, and soybean have different supply and demand fundamentals. But CBOT futures price charts show similar patterns for all three in the past three years. As I pointed out earlier, inflation, geopolitical crisis and Fed rate hikes took turns driving commodities markets across the board. Economic fundamentals got set aside.
Volatility is a friend for options traders. Last June, I introduced a Long Strangle strategy on CBOT Wheat (ZC). At the time, wheat price was swung widely by actions in the battlefield. A surprise agreement that allowed Ukrainian grain cargoes to pass the Russia-control Black Sea sent price sharply down, making our put options 400% more valuable.
This year, we will focus on more subtle changes in traditional supply and demand factors, such as planted acreage, weather, yield, and export.
Spread Trade Opportunities
Inflation and rate hikes hit different parts of the agricultural markets differently. For the same commodities, the spread between farm-level price and retail grocery price has become wider due to cost increase.
The commodities used as input in food product and those for output respond to different fundamentals. When inflation and interest rate are moving fast, the traditional price relationship may be temporally dislocated, opening opportunities for spread trades.
Take the example of the Lean Hog market: Last August, USDA Daily Hog and Pork Report showed that benchmark Iowa Carcass Base Price averaged $128/cwt.
Hog Crush Margin represents production profit by hog farmers. It is defined by the value of lean hog (LH) less the cost of weaned pig (WP), corn (C) and soybean meal (SBM).
On August 2nd, I presented the trade idea “Short the Hog Margin If You Expect Lower Pork Price”. It’s a profitable trade. On January 6th, USDA benchmark carcass is quoted at $74, a whopping 42% decline in five months.
For this spread trade, I used a Hog Feeding Spread to replicate the economic hog crush margin with CME lean hog (HE), CBOT Corn (ZC) and CBOT Soybean Meal (ZM). The size of relevant futures contracts: HE, 40000 lbs.; ZC, 5000 bushels; and ZM, 100 short tons. A typical hog feeding spread is 7:3:1, which may be expressed as:
Hog Feeding Spread = 7 x HE – 3 x ZC – 1 x ZM
As I expect hog margin to shrink, I short the spread: Sell hog, buy corn and meal.
I will continue to monitor the agricultural commodities space in the new year. Whenever spreads or other trade opportunities arise, I will present the new ideas on TradingView.
Happy trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
SHORTMarch futures... price declining from a large cycle top
Short Entry
TP - 1 = 636
Use tight stop above 790 usd
Trade safe, good luck
Wheat Weekly Forecast (January 3 – 5, 2023)Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 761, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 817 and 848.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 761, which will be followed by moving down to support level 732.
Wheat Monthly Forecast, January 2023Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 723, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 947,2.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend is not expected this month.
