SHORTMarch futures... price declining from a large cycle top
Short Entry
TP - 1 = 636
Use tight stop above 790 usd
Trade safe, good luck
XW1! trade ideas
Wheat Weekly Forecast (January 3 – 5, 2023)Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 761, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 817 and 848.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 761, which will be followed by moving down to support level 732.
Wheat Monthly Forecast, January 2023Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 723, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 947,2.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend is not expected this month.
Wheat future : a new Head and Shoulder is developping Wheat future showing a similar pattern previous 1982,1998 and 2008 crashes.
That is pure data analysis, without taking the fundamentals in account.
The 730 support level as from now is therefore highly important.
Weekly Forecast (December 27 – 30, 2022)Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 761, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 817.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 761, which will be followed by moving down to support level 723.
Wheat Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my pullback buy entry at 761.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 744.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 785.50, where the previous swing high and 161.8% Fibonacci extension line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible pullback buy entry at 761.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 744.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 785.50, where the previous swing high and 161.8% Fibonacci extension line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a possible sell stop entry at 745.75, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 761.50, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 731.25, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
🌾Wheat (ZW): Elliott Wave Analysis●● Preferred count
● Wheat - CBOT (ZW.F), 🕐TF: 1Q
Fig.1
The counting of the wave structure of 1840-1972 has been revised in favor of a supercycly triangle (IV) , the subsequent series of uptrend waves is interpreted as waves I , II and III as part of the unfolding ending diagonal (V) .
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● Wheat Futures (CBOT), 🕐TF: 2W
Fig.2
The target for wave IV may be the Fibo level of 78.6% of wave II .
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● Wheat Futures (CBOT), 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.3
A variant of counting the wave structure of wave III .
The wave structure is expected to become more complex up to the sideways correction. If the correction takes the form of a triangle, as it is schematically depicted in Fig.4 , then a good trading setup will open for opening a short position.
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
ZW1! Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 750.75, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 767.25, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line and previous high is. Take profit will be at 723.50, where the previous swing low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Has Topped, But Corrective Recovery Can Be NearWheat has topped, but corrective recovery can be near, as we see it finishing a five-wave cycle from the highs.
Wheat has been in a massive rally at the beginning of 2022 due to war in Ukraine, but now that stocks are trying to stabilize in the second part of 2022, we can see commodities slowing down within deeper corrections.
Wheat has five waves down from the highs into first leg A, now unfolding and finishing wave "5" of A that can stop around 700 - 600 area. So, top is in place temporarily, but corrective pullback in wave B may occur at the beginning of 2023, which can retest the 950 – 1000 resistance area before we will later see more weakness within wave C.
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ZW1! Potential For Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. However, I am looking to play the pullback. Price has tapped into my buy stop entry at 756.25, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 723.50, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 799.50, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat longUp trend, pull back, dxy is the only thing that can make the moove slower but this thing is going to be insane in the next years
Financial Wave. WheatIn past reviews, we considered the $760 level as critical for our upside scenario in our preferable variant. The price of wheat fell below $760 and the most likely scenario is to continue the decline to the next target level of $600. Today's close above $760 will resume the uptrend.
Strong probability to make profits ZWWe have a strong probability to buy or trading long the ZW market.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, for ZW1! Bullish due to the current price and volume, I am looking to buy and make stop lose on resistance
WHEAT Will Keep Falling! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
WHEAT broke the key horizontal level
And because the commodity is in the downtrend
I am expecting a further move down
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
Wheat Potential for Bullish RiseLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. However, I am looking to play the pullback. So, I am looking for a possible buy stop entry at 756.25, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 723.50, where the recent swing low is. Take profit will be at 799.50, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Financial Wave. WheatThe price of wheat fell below $760, we considered this level critical for our growth scenario, let's see where the price will be at the end of the week. Close above $760 gives hope for growth, close below could take wheat to $600.
Wheat: Rough ride since March...Now what???Wheat has had a rough ride since the historic highs reached in March, and now is at levels that will test a "swing support" zone that has held several times in the past year.
In summarizing this past week's wheat action, Total Farm Marketing noted (www.totalfarmmarketing.com)
Wheat Prices Lower for the Week
December CBOT wheat futures shed 10-1/2 cents this week to close at 803-1/4
December KCBOT wheat futures shed 9-1/4 cents this week to close at 934-1/4
December MGEX wheat futures added 5-3/4 cents this week to close at 951-1/2
Informa raised its estimate for the 2023 World wheat crop my 4.5 million tons on higher production in China and India
Wheat export sales were only 5.7 million bushels last week which is the second smallest weekly total for that date since 1996
Managed money is currently holding its largest net-short position in 3 years
US winter wheat conditions improved somewhat after last week’s rains, but the Plains are still in an extreme drought and will need higher than normal winter precipitation to replenish soil moisture before crops come out of dormancy in the spring
Given the mostly negative news, the price action is understandable. But from here, what's the play?
Carley Garner from DeCarley Trading tweeted the following idea (and shared with her clients): madmimi.com
The link will take you to Carley's specific trade idea which...spoiler alert....plays on Wheat holding support and bouncing from here at some point.
I think her trade idea is well constructed and founded on sound reasoning. I actually initiated a small position in the call spread (without selling the otm put).
As always, my positioning and my article is NOT meant to be advice in any way! But it's good food for thought and discussion. Eager to hear reactions/thoughts.
Wheat Futures Ready to Pop Again. Same Signal to Start 2020 BoomCOT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop
As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold the large speculators are and what the consequences of that can be.
I'm looking for a technical long reversal entry on the daily chart to enter the trade and then use sound risk management thereafter
Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
- Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
Financial Wave. WheatWheat.
The price of WHEAT dropped to $760. We marked this level as a point of cancellation of our priority scenario, in case the price continues to fall, most likely wheat will continue to decline to $600. We’ll inform you about the changes in our wave counting in the near future, at the moment we stick to our view: this is the growth of WHEAT to new highs, but we do not exclude that it will have to be corrected.
Wheat Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 804.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 820.25, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 767.50, where the 88% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Wheat Long IdeaWheat performs poorly compared to other grain products. I expect news that will reverse the trend at these levels. This news may originate from Ukraine or Australia.
