Wheat Futures Ready to Pop Again. Same Signal to Start 2020 BoomCOT Data is signaling that Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! ) are ready to pop after a few months of declines and chop
As it currently stands, this is the shortest the Large Speculators have been on Wheat since 2020 where it bottomed at 589'4 to rally all the way as high as 1422'0. By no means do I expect a similar rally to ensure, but this does illustrate how oversold the large speculators are and what the consequences of that can be.
I'm looking for a technical long reversal entry on the daily chart to enter the trade and then use sound risk management thereafter
Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About
COT Definitions:
- COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities
1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc)
2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds)
3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms)
Indicators on Chart:
- The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time
- The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0
- Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario)
Trade Setup - Both Must Happen:
- When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above)
- On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
- Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
XW1! trade ideas
Financial Wave. WheatWheat.
The price of WHEAT dropped to $760. We marked this level as a point of cancellation of our priority scenario, in case the price continues to fall, most likely wheat will continue to decline to $600. We’ll inform you about the changes in our wave counting in the near future, at the moment we stick to our view: this is the growth of WHEAT to new highs, but we do not exclude that it will have to be corrected.
Wheat Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ZW1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 804.00, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 820.25, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 767.50, where the 88% Fibonacci line is.
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Wheat Mini Futures ( XW1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumTitle: Wheat Mini Futures ( XW1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum
Type: Bullish Momentum
Resistance: 949'3
Pivot: 904'1
Support: 877'3
Preferred case: With the price moving above ichimoku cloud , we have a buillish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 904'1, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 949'3, where the swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may retrace downwards and head towards the 877'3
support level , where the 38.2% Fibonacci lines located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish MomentumTitle: Wheat Mini Futures ( XW1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Momentum
Type: Bullish Momentum
Resistance: 949'3
Pivot: 904'1
Support: 877'3
Preferred case: With the price moving above ichimoku cloud, we have a buillish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 904'1, which is in line with the overlap resistance to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 949'3, where the swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may retrace downwards and head towards the 877'3
support level, where the 38.2% Fibonacci lines located.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
WHEAT W1The situation on the wheat market may become critical for the consumer, due to Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal. That will probably entail a speculative increase in the price of grain. At the start of full-scale hostilities in Ukraine, we saw the price of quotations for wheat almost double in a very short period. After that, the situation stabilized a bit. But realizing that due to the impossibility of logistics of wheat from Ukraine, the situation could create hunger in the world. Because Ukraine is a very large supplier of grain, on which many countries depend. The states, with the participation of Erdogan, were able to reach a consensus and conclude a grain deal. But because of the shelling of the Russian fleet last week, the Russian Federation announced that it was withdrawing from this agreement. Now there are almost 300 ships at sea loaded with Ukrainian wheat and blocked by Russian troops. Not being able to supply grain to the consumer will create a shortage in the market and the price will automatically start to rise. Immediately after the announcement of Russia, the price increased by 8%!
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 904'1
Pivot: 856’0
Support: 781'4
Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 856‘0. which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 781'4 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 904'1, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 904'1
Pivot: 853'1
Support: 781'4
Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 853'1. which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 781'4 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 904'1, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 904'1
Pivot: 853'1
Support: 781'4
Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 853'1. which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 781'4 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 904'1, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 904'1
Pivot: 853'1
Support: 781'4
Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 853'1. which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 781'4 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 904'1, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW!), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 904'1
Pivot: 853'1
Support: 781'4
Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 853'1. which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 781'4 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 904'1, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
Wheat Mini Futures ( XW1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish MomentumType: Bearish Momentum
Resistance: 904'1
Pivot: 858'2
Support: 781'4
Preferred Case: On H4, as the price moving below ichimoku cloud and descending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 858'2. which is in line with the overlap resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 781'4 where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 904'1, which is in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
WHEAT // market is in daily impulseHi✋🏽
Trend is short, and price tested the last daily south breakout, then turned. Targets are marked by the fibo.
What do you think???
Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️
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ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter.
I JUST REACT!
Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽
Remember that trading is a business.
SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion!
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