YM1! trade ideas
E-mini Dow Jones Futures are pullback, trend remain bullish
Current Situation:
The futures are currently trading at 39,865, down 1,208 points or 2.94%. This indicates a significant short-term pullback.
Technical Levels:
The chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5 retracement at 38,865
0.618 retracement at 40,162
1.0 extension at 41,684
1.618 extension at 45,168
Trend Analysis:
The overall trend has been bullish, with prices making higher highs and higher lows.
However, the current candle shows a significant red bar, indicating strong selling pressure.
Support and Resistance:
Immediate support seems to be around the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 38,865.
The recent high around 41,684 may act as resistance on any upward moves.
Volume:
The current trading volume is 1.47M, which is significant and suggests active participation.
Seasonal Patterns:
The seasonal data at the bottom of the chart shows mixed performance for upcoming months:
September has been historically weak (-1.40% average)
October and November tend to be stronger (2.32% and 4.21% averages respectively)
Price Projections:
The chart shows two potential paths:
A bearish scenario with a further drop towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level
A bullish scenario projecting a move towards the 1.618 extension at 45,168
Recent Performance:2024 year-to-date performance has been positive, with gains in the first 7 months.
Risk Factors:The current sharp decline might signal a change in market sentiment or reaction to economic news.
Conclusion:
While the E-mini Dow Jones Futures are currently experiencing a pullback, the overall trend remains bullish. Traders should watch the 38,865 support level closely. If it holds, we might see a bounce back towards previous highs. However, if it breaks, we could see further downside. The seasonal pattern suggests potential weakness in September before a stronger Q4. As always, traders should consider broader market conditions, economic data, and risk management in their decision-making process.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: YM_F should Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in E-Mini Dow Jones Futures (YM_F) suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from April-2023 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave ((5)) while dips remain above 38535 low. Since April-2024 high of (3), it starts to move sideways for almost 3 months to build a triangle structure. This triangle completed wave (4) at 39284 low. The market resumed the rally building an impulse as wave (5) ended at 41672 high and also wave ((3)) in higher degree.
YM_F begins a big correction in July 18 high. Down from wave ((3)), the index did an impulse structure to complete a wave (A) at 40053 low. Then, the market did a bounce developing a double correction as wave (B). Up from wave (A), wave W ended at 41051 high. The connector (X) ended at 40606 low and last push higher completed wave (Y) at 41427 and also wave (B). The market resumed to the downside forming another impulse as wave (C) of ((4)). It placed 1 of (C) at 41028 low, 2 at 41305 high, 3 at 39518 low, 4 at 39880 high and finally 5 at 38541 to complete wave (C) and wave ((4)). While price action stays above 38541 low, we are calling for more upside to continue the rally as wave ((5)).
2024 Range Bound (Buy Lows, Sell Highs)2024 is shaping up to be a range bound year. I am not going to try to analyze what will happen years from now. I am taking it year by year.
The last time we had a Doji candle year was in 2015. It even had the same increased volatility and sell off in August. If I see that little double bottom again, I am going long back up into the top of the range. It seems like every time it goes long, it does that silly little double dip first.
I am flat all positions as I don't know the market's intention. Part of me thinks the 33 Secular Bull trend will continue up and another part of me can see a 40% sell off. I will be humble and take it day by day. Until then I will be playing short term on this range.
It seems to me like we are getting ready to bounce up off of the blue 2024 open line.
Same in 2015
Dow Industrials Monthly ButterflyThis one is better than Nasdaq, has indicator divergence as well and is earlier
Possibility for +20% correction from here
August Gameplan Continuation Of Mitigated RangeUsing the prior range, price has retraced back into the 50% level to mitigate orders. This also aligns with the uptrendline on the weekly.
I am expecting August to be an EXTREMELY bullish month with a huge pin bar at the bottom. I believe this is the month that will break out of 42,000.
Using the fuel from shorts, I can see 6 points of reference for a squeeze back up.
1. The creeping order flow before the blow off down. This signals the bottom.
2. The gap just above the creeping order flow.
3. The gap on the Daily just under August's Open Price of 41,115
4. The 3 liquidity highs at 41,300 41,430 41,675
The June 20th to July 10th range SHOULD be defended and NOT be breached IF my thesis will play out.
On the Weekly, I am expecting price to start buying and complete the 42,000 breakout.
Dow Short IdeaThe Dow just broke below it's uptrend from April during this overnight session. If it remains below and comes back for a retest, I think it's make for an excellent short opportunity. Target would be the April low.
Weekly Overview: YM1 Dow Jones AnalysisThis week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM1) offers a critical technical landscape for traders. With the Nasdaq closing at 39,879, our outlook will hinge on this key level, determining whether the market will trend bullishly above or bearishly below. In the absence of significant fundamental news, technical indicators and market sentiment will play pivotal roles in shaping our trading strategies. Key support and resistance levels, along with volume trends and market momentum, will be essential in predicting the Dow's movements. Traders should remain vigilant and responsive to these technical cues to navigate the market effectively.
YM - Singularity Between Them AllUnlike ES and NQ, the monthly candle closed out as a inside month, in comparative to the previous month which is different.
I like to see when all three markets are moving lockstep with each other.
However, YM is a market i use as a sort of barometer to gauge the strength of ES so information like this is crucial for risk management purposes.
Although this month was a inside month, business was conducted inside the volume imbalance located @ $39,469 - $39,560 before a relief rally ensued.
Will this continue??
I have my eyes on $40,400
Week of FOMC Bullish Continuation of Range Running HighsI anticipate next week of July FOMC to be a bullish week to run the highs inside this range.
I will be Day trading off of the 15-minute chart using the 4 hours as my structure. I will only be looking for buys.
Of course, seeing how this is a range, it could also just as easily sell back down into the bottom of the range. I will see how my support zone holds up.
There is a setup of buying a pullback up to the highs but I am not quite fond of being a buyer at the middle of the range. They call the middle the slaughter house for a reason. If you do want to take it, then I would go light as it is a bit more risky.
OHLC Statistical Mapping <3Played out beautifuly, the second scenario where opposing manipulation turns to resistance from support. target was simply -distribution.
November 2025 Shorting Opportunity 1987 2.0 Flash CrashUsing 1987 as my template on the weekly chart, I am following price up to 49,500 at the 1.25X range expansion where I will place half my order. Then when I see a lower high and engulfment, I will place the other half of my order for the flash crash down to the 50% gold line.
I will be using 1200 tick stops with 11,000 tick targets.
I am expecting around November of 2025 as the time to go short.
I will use 5 MYM micros risking $3,000 on the first half and another 5 MYM for $3,000 on the second half.
IF, everything goes to my plan, then I will bank $55,000 on this trade.
I will then use that $55,000 to buy my YM down at the 38,000 level to then start the wealth accumulation towards 150,000
SEE 1987 CHART BELOW FOR REFERENCE:
YM OHLC Stat Map <3-Manipulation was broken and turned from resistance to support, target was simply +distribution because I was bullish
Best Trade Setup Low Of Day Parabolic Trend Squeeze Backtesting I will be going over this repeatable setup on the 15 minute chart and my goal is to master every little nuance of this setup. This setup offers at least 4-8 times your risk on the day trade.
I have noticed that there are 3 variations of this setup depending on how Asia and London set it up.
A quick run down of the tools I use
Highlighter blue: Where the greatest entry would be for little to no drawdown after the market has been set up
Range expansion: The high to low of the rectangle box to project upwards potential profit targets of 1.5-2.5 times that box
Cyan Line: The day's current open price
Green Line: The Low of Day heading into the NY session window
I am making this post to help others and for me to reference often to better understand this setup that I want to master. Like Mcdonald's I need a repeatable product that is cookie cutter that I can reliably profit off of.
I have noticed that this happens 4-5 times per month and up to 8 times some months.
4-5 times a month is a 20-25% occurrence rate based on 20 standard trading days in said month.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Dow Futures (YM) Resumes Bullish TrendShort Term Elliott Wave View in E-Mini Dow Jones Futures (YM) suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from April-2024 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave 5 of (5) since 18-April, 2024 low, while dips remain above 40053 low. Since April-2024 low of (4), it placed 1 at 40213 high, 2 at 38111 low as dip pullback and 3 at 41672 high. It ended 4 as clear 3 swing zigzag pullback at 40053 low and favors upside in 5, which confirms above 41672 high to avoid any double correction, if breaks below 40053 low. Within 4 correction, it placed ((a)) at 40466 low, ((b)) at 40795 high and ((c)) at 40053 low, which missed the equal leg areas in 4 before resume higher.
Above 4 low, it placed ((i)) of 5 at 41051 high and favors corrective pullback in ((ii)), which should remain above 40053 low to extend higher in ((iii)). Within ((i)), it placed (i) at 40685 high, (ii) at 40158 low, (iii) at 41029 high, (iv) at 40863 low and finally (v) at 41051 high as ((i)). It placed (a) of ((ii)) at 40606 low and favors bounce in (b) before turning lower in (c) to finish ((ii)). As long as it stays above 40053 low, it should resume higher in 5 and can extend towards 42052 – 42671 area to finish the impulse started from April-2024 low before correcting lower. Alternatively, if it breaks below 40053 low, it can do double correction towards 39432 or lower levels before it should turn higher.
BOS below previous lows - YM short opportunity Weekly FTGH continuation - Daily LH continuation. Breaks below previous lows - great R:R opportunity to next level 40431 large imbalance to fill
YM long opportunity next weekIF we break 40,999 we have a great R:R opportunity for longs due to break of structure previous highs and previous imbalance
YM - Dow Jones Coming Like Bitcoin??!Unlike ES and NQ, last week booked all-time highs but failed to close above the monthly buyside liquidity @ 40,702.
This weeks candle opened with a gap relative to the close of the previous weeks candle, spiked to the downside before closing above the previous monthly buystops.
Friday was the day we saw the most movement.
YM - You Know I Like My Low Hanging Fruits.Got my sights dialled into $40,442 as YM, in comparison with ES and NQ is late to the game.
What game you might ask?
The game of savaging sellers!
OHLC Statistical Mapping-manipulation got my attention when I am bullish and I targeted -Distribution. Simple bread & butter model on YM which presents nearly every day.
Sell Opportunity on E-mini Dow Jones (5$)Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to Sell E-mini Dow Jones (5$) Futures with a high probability in the Daily chart.
The target is set at 40000$ first and 39800$ Second within a few days (Swing trade).
Ibrouri
YM Day Trade and Swing Trade (Setup Range Sell Continuation)For my Monday gameplan:
Downtrend continuation from the Range High to the Range Bottom
Pullback Somewhere in the 50% level
Take out the low from Friday and the 5 bottom liquidity from last Monday- Tuesday
Hit the mid point of the bottom of the range and close the gap from last Monday
Daytrade:
50 tick stop
200 tick target
4:1
Not looking for anything massive, just 150-200 ticks. My daytrades are base hits
Swing Trade:
On my other swing trading account, I will take the same trade idea and hold it for a couple days, using a bigger stop and bigger target
150 tick stop
800 tick target
8.33:1
Target possibly hit if trade works, Tuesday
Dow Jones Futures Daytrading Setup Continuation Long 41,750I am looking for a pullback Long for the continuation up to 41,750 which is around the 2X range expansion. A somewhat of a repeat of yesterday. A dip below the open followed by Long at the NY open.
I will have to see how price is behaving towards the NY open.
My stops are always 50 ticks and my targets are 150 ticks. 3 to 1
Using my wealth trade, price is now in breakout mode on the weekly and will be ripping higher to 49,000. I will only be looking for Longs for the next 12 months.
