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YM1! trade ideas

YM - Weekly Frontrunning To Sour Sell StopsOf the three stock indexes; - CME_MINI:ES1! - CME_MINI:NQ1! - CBOT_MINI:YM1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! Looks to be the pair that's frontrunning the sellside narrative as it is the 1st of the three to reverse and reject all-time highs @ 38,992, closing the week as a bearish doji candle whilst CME_MINI:ES1! and CME_MINI:NQ1! close out bullish. Is this a indication for CME_MINI:ES1! & CME_MINI:NQ1! for a potential reversal? Would many of us retail traders expect a sudden shift like that, similar to CBOT_MINI:YM1! ? With a bullish TVC:DXY , more pressure could be placed on CBOT_MINI:YM1! to the downside to attack a DEEP liquidity pool @ 38,212 placed ever so perfectly on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighted in blue. This assumes the 1-hour wednesday bullish fair value gap rejects and gets treated like a inverted FVG. 38,645 will be my first point of call if my bias is to stick like glue. Friday 9th Feb 2024 - 8:00AM bullish shooting star located on the 1-hour timeframe is a MAKE OR BREAK CANDLE. As long as price action trades below 38,840, there's a strong chance we could be in for a sell-off next week. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
CBOT_MINI:YMH2024Short
by LegendSince
Dow Jones March Futures looks Great to Slide lowerHello Everyone. Forex market seems to be stuck in a mud and we seems to be in a highly manipulative environment. but soon market is going to be normal and we will have alot of setups forming but as of now i have a Dow jones YMH2024 March contract for short.. the Current model is 2022 Model as per inner circle trader concept which is my personal favorite and the most easy one. as per this we can see the Dow has taken out the buystops and given a market structure shift for the downside and market reprised higher in the Entry zone which is generally known as Fair value Gap. so therefore i am expecting price to go lower and target 38490 level. This is a very clean and clear setup which has a higher probability to hit the target. but due to weekends there could be a shift if some news come out. otherwise its good to go
CBOT_MINI:YMH2024Short
by Rizwan-Ali
1 Hour Dow 6 to 1 Sell Set up (600 Point Target)Now that the 200sma is starting to roll over after we had the three push pattern higher AND the false break reversal on Friday, I am looking for a meandering back up into the supply zone for a sell. My only concern is that I don't know what CPI will do. Will it spike up to hit that magical 39,000 number for another false reversal or will it spike down? The 1 Hour 21ema is pointing down and at a slight angle away which tells me a pullback into the 200sma and a bounce. Steep 21ema = trend Rounding 21ema = pullback What ever CPI decides to do, I am still Bearish as this is the top of this entire rally. The 3 push pattern at a top has each high just marginally higher than the last high and the 3rd push high was a peek a boo false break reversal. I believe Dow Jones is the leader in that it is peaking first before Nasdaq and S&P. The S&P is still bullish. The Dow's first rally off of the October Lows was really powerful compared to S&P's piddling attempt.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM Gameplan For Remainder Of Year August DumpI believe this is all she wrote on the rally inside of this monthly bearish rising wedge and that the prevailing downtrend will continue as that is the higher timeframe trend. This rally has been a counter trend rally into the main trend. Volatility will pick back up. First will likely sell off to the 200sma Daily, bounce into the trendline and roll over. Once in the green box it will rally back up into supply marked with the other trendline in August. I believe end of August will just create a massive dump slicing through that wedge bottom and dropping 20% in three months. By November we will get a small rally back up into resistance marked by the red rectangle, or the bottom of that October rally. Into the declining 200sma Daily. Prime selling area for another 20% drop. This drop will happen after the new year in 2025. December will end about 31,500 as the close of the year. Finally, October 2025 will be the capitulation dump down into the support zone for another 28% sell off. February 2026 will be the bottom at around 21,500 where upon a massive short squeeze will ensue completely erasing that sell off like nothing happened. A 74% rally in one fell swoop, with the ultimate target back up to 44,500 for 110% rally.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM Daily Analysis On the 3rd push up. Bull Market FinishedZoomed in closely on the Daily chart, price is now on its final third push higher into MAJOR,MAJOR Channel resistance with not very much room left to go. I have been saying February 13th as the top and so far it is playing out nicely. I am already short at 38,760 since the near close of yesterday. I am a bit early but not by much. I decided to go with it since I am extremely confident in this trade. From 38,900 down to 21,500. On the weekly, this week is forming a bull hammer up in space, a key sign of a reversal. The tail portion of the bull hammer when up high is fuel for a long squeeze. The target area is the monthly rising 200sma at demand, price area 21,500-23,000
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Friday YM Dow Jones Possible Bullish DayI don't know what will happen Friday but to me, it looks like it might open up bearish into the rising 21ema only for it to bounce back and rip higher. It seems like a good target will be the top of the channel at around 39,080 This is the hourly chart. On the 5 minute chart, the 200sma is the 1 hour 21ema, so any pullbacks into the 200sma I will be looking to go long. The fact that it didn't close that gap Thursday shows strength
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
This looks like the top is in before the 37% sell off To me it looks like Friday was the top. Monday sold aggressively down, followed by Tuesday a consolidation near the base/lows and a pullback to the 50% mark. This up channel is looking to break soon. I have market two green lines. The first one is the entry short using the daily timeframe. If price eliminates this green daily candle. The second one is my entry, the weekly. If price eliminates that last green weekly candle via an engulfment or pin bar then I am in. The 15 minute 200sma is looking to start rolling over.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Week 6 Day Trading Gameplan (Range Bound Bullish Bias)Still sticking with the bullish trend on the short term ( 1 Hour ), I will be waiting for pullbacks into my support zones of 1 & 2 areas. The 1 hour's 200sma is flat which tells me range. Whether price works the low or the high first is key. My stops are always 40 ticks and targets are 85 ticks. Last week I only took 3 trades. 2 winners and 1 loser. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 21ema is pointing straight down and there is distance between the 21ema and the flat 200sma. My Monday play IF set up will be a sell continuation pulling back to the declining 21ema in a bear flag. Ok if it pops above the 21ema by a bit.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
My Heavenly Book ( YM ) E-mini Dow Jones ($5) futures are derivative contracts with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index as an underlying asset. These mini futures are electronically traded and give investors exposure to the US stock market through 30 US blue-chip companies, but they represent only a portion ($5) of standard Dow Jones futures, which makes them more accessible. Since these are still futures, traders use them to hedge their stock portfolios against risks that are inevitable in markets.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by BenyaminDaneshvar
7 More Bullish Days Before The Expected Sell OffI am expecting another 7 trading days of bullishness to reach its measured move of 39,275 area. Price is bumping its head up above the 3-month chart's trend channel in this new secular bear market. This whole rally was a bearish rising wedge on the monthly chart. Before it can rally the whole 100% like I expect in 2026, it needs order flow and the slight pullback in 2022 just wasn't enough. It needs more shorts for the squeeze. My target is 24,500 and the rising monthly 200sma. The rising monthly 200sma is lining up perfectly with the third trend channel's bottom. There is the Fourth channel bottom for the upcoming 2029's 48% sell off that I don't believe anyone will see coming. 2026-2029 will be extremely bullish and will wipe out this 37% sell off. It will also be used as fuel and order flow for that 48% sell off in 2029. What is a telling piece of evidence is the monthly's 21ema is flat as a pancake and is not being respected = range. This tells me that any pops above it will get sold into. Same setup I use on the 5 minute. The Daily 200sma is also flat and not respected. Not indicative of a bullish trending market. I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the range and not that it is now going to trend. Notice the Weekly's 21ema is chopping around right through the middle of price? Not trending AT ALL. I am expecting it to continue in this fashion. I am just reading what price is telling me and the evidence is clearly here for a range sell high play down to the bottom of the range. I am not seeing bullishness yet.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Dow Jones Getting closer to a sell signal soon. February EngulfmNow that January monthly candle has closed, I am awaiting an engulfment candle. I will place a limit order sell under the low of the green body of January at 37,775 with my target down at 21,600 with the intent of adding more on the way down. I am planning on a 37% sell off and have been a broken record on this for months because I firmly believe this is the set up. I still think there is just a small amount of upside left. The monthly 21ema is flat = range = Sell the pops above it Monthly Bearish Rising Wedge hitting the top of the up channel The monthly 200sma is rising and is far away = Counter trend sell to pullback to the monthly rising 200sma. The trend is bullish long term but the 37% sell off is a counter trend sell/ pullback in an overall bullish market. Once it hits 21,500 area, I will be buying for the bull rally up to 44,500 for a 110% bull run At around 2029 at the highs of 44,500, I am expecting a massive 45% sell off down to 20,000 This will be the low for the rest of my lifetime, after which I am expecting Dow Jones to start shooting for 200,000
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM Dow spike and channel pattern, Break of pattern = 37% dumpThe final push up in this spike and channel pattern. I don't know when it will resume the up move and from where. I also don't know what the top will be. I will trade the bearish break of this pattern. There is about 1000 points left to the upside. I got in too early back on the 18th and will wait until it gets up to my levels. Short Term Bullish until February 9th-15th January FOMC probable no rate changes Long Term Bearish March FOMC possible rate cut/ Pivot = Dump Statistics show price trading roughly 3% lower into the Fed Pivot
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
YM Bullflag Pull Back Into FOMC Bullish What I am seeing is a bull flag in a sideways range. It poked above and failed. Most likely pulling back into the half way point. Pulling back getting ready for the FOMC next Wednesday for a, more than likely, bullish FOMC. I believe we have one final push up before the 37% sell off down to 23,000. I am currently short, notated by the orange line. I admit I got in too early and still am underwater. I am still 100% confident the sell off is around February 20th and will have to endure a bit more upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
5
Dow Futures (YM) Pullback Should Find Support in 3, 7, 11 SwingShort Term view on Dow Futures suggests rally from 10.27.2023 low ended at 38113 as wave (3). Pullback in wave (4) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave W ended at 37470 and wave X ended at 38038. Wave Y lower ended at 37298 as the 1 hour chart below shows. This completed wave (4) in higher degree. The Index has resumed higher in wave (5). Internal subdivision of wave (5) takes the form of a 5 waves impulse structure. Up from wave (4), wave ((i)) ended at 37897 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37633. Index then resumes higher in wave ((iii)) towards 38157. Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 38061 and final leg wave ((v)) ended at 38302. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Expect Index to pullback in wave 2 in 7 swing as a double three Elliott Wave structure. The first 3 swing lower is in progress and can reach 37731 – 37930 where wave ((w)) should end. Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((x)) before turning lower again in 3 waves to complete wave ((y)) of 2. As far as pivot at 37298 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
YM DOW JONES 8 Year Gameplan 2032 Buy At 20,000 Hold 200,000My personal gameplan on how I am tackling these sideways choppy markets. First, I will sell this 37% sell off that is about to occur February 20th Second, I will buy for the explosive short squeeze 60%, wait for the dip and buy off the rising wedge bottom for another 12,000 points Third, I will sell the upcoming 49% sell off on year 2029. Finally, the bottom will be in place at 20,000 in 2032 and I will be holding for next 15 years until DOW 200,000 The chart I am presenting is the weekly chart. I have the up channel drawn with 4 channel lines. The bottom channel line will line up with 2029's 49% sell off.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
3