dr confirmation upside long ADRprice confirmed on the upside and analyzed dr lens data for target 1.5-1.7 std
YM1! trade ideas
Dow Futures (YM_F) Sequence Remains BullishDow Futures (YM_F) shows incomplete sequence from 10.3.2022 low favoring further upside. Rally from 10.3.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.3.2022 low, wave (1) ended at 35228 and dips in wave (2) ended at 32409. Wave (3) higher is in progress as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 34315 and dips in wave 2 ended at 33913. Index then resumed higher in wave 3 towards 36338.
The 45 minutes chart below shows the move higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 35456 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 35309. Up from wave ((ii)), the Index is nesting in wave (i) at 35641 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 35456. Index then resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 36058 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 36015. Wave (v) higher ended at 36101 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 35963. Wave ((v)) higher ended at 36337 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 is currently in progress as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 36093 and wave ((b)) rally ended at 36299. Wave ((c)) lower is expected to complete at the 100% extension area at 35857 – 36026 where wave 4 should end. From there, the Index should see further upside or 3 waves rally at least.
Will the Dow Jones Continue to Outperform? Dow Jones Futures (YM) have experienced a notable resurgence since the bottoming of 30-year bonds in late October, leading to lower yields. This rally in risk assets has propelled the Dow to trade at 52-week highs, overcoming the prevailing headwind of interest rates throughout much of the year.
Recent robust earnings from Salesforce positioned the Dow for outperformance in last week’s trade, as investors also shift focus from mega-cap tech stocks towards the Dow and the Russell 2000 as a "Catch Up" trade.
A significant boost to the Dow's relative outperformance occurred with the observed bottom in Chicago PMI numbers on November 30th, revealing manufacturing sector expansion well above consensus estimates (55.8 vs. 45.4 expected). This data has further bolstered confidence in the Dow Jones rally.
Major Headwinds for the Dow Jones:
However, the upcoming week poses challenges for risk assets, including Dow Jones futures, with various job-related data releases such as ADP Nonfarm, Avg Hourly Earnings, Unit Labor Costs, and the Unemployment rate. This data is expected to introduce volatility to the markets as bond traders recalibrate interest rate expectations for 2024.
Another significant headwind is the scheduled release of the Fed’s summary of Economic Projections on December 13th, including the infamous Dot Plot. The Dot Plot will outline the Fed’s interest rate expectations, potentially differing significantly from market expectations, which may create a volatile environment into the end of the year.
Support & Resistance:
Technically, the Dow has broken and closed above the old resistance of 35750-35880, which now serves as new support. To test all-time highs, a decisive break and close above 36305-36505 is awaited, signaling the Dow's sustained upward momentum amid shifting market dynamics.
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Disclaimers:
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
E-mini Dow Jones ($5) Futures - YM1!Weekly chart with ichimoku.
The LS has broken its trend line, confirmation of the uptrend.
RSI at 64.12%, MACD ok.
Next goal, the highest at 36826 points.
Make up your mind.
US30 prediction 11/28/23
This is going back down to a previous failed range and retesting it as support. I am Bullish BIAS. Going long for higher time frame targets
ICT breaker setup on YMYM took sellside liquidity below Asia Low. Bullish breakers on 5M and 15M. Target - resent swing high for 1:2,2 RR. In line with overall recent uptrend
Long Ym Looking for slight pull back with price action that supports bullish narrative, around 34,900
then buying on bullish engulfing candles. Looking for Down close candles being rejected to form bullish engulfing. I'm not a genie or oracle so it's difficult to predict if it takes out the highest before moving lower or vise versa . This is the Third and Final leg up before I believe a corrective pullback will take place. This leg up should Break through some previous months highs to get into some buying liquidity for the move lower. Looking for 400 or so points up to get us close to the 35,400 or 35,500 area. If you find this helpful please like and share. If you disagree feel free to share your insights. Thank you for your time and for viewing my ideals.
DOW JONES Gameplan: Buy at D for final leg up to 38000 for crashI believe we are at the C portion and will not get fooled by this short term rally. I am expecting another leg down to D to close out the remainder of the year and the first quarter of next year. I believe D area just slightly under the rising weekly 200sma will be PRIME buying for the, in my opinion, the final leg up in this bear flag channel to either 37000 or 38000.
I will be anticipating a 36% sell off that is in line with the 1968 style sell off. Everything on this current chart is copying the 1962-1971 price action.
DOW JONES 1967 at the C portion of the ABCD
I still stand behind my prior post on the SP500. My only concern is I don't know the top, or the date. I only am estimating the general price action that is likely to happen. I am preparing for the inevitable crash that is coming in the next year, late late 2024 to early 2025.
US 30 (YM/Dow) quick lookBased on recent price action that correlates between Day chart to 15min a bull run seems to be coming after consolidation, but may do a pull back to 33830 range.
Micro DOW Swing TradeThis trade triggered last night and has retested our original demand zone.
4 hour chart trend is up
1 hour trend is up but sideways.
15 minute retest of a demand zone.
Target is set at previous structure high.
Micro DOW shortThis is the retest of the opening range on the Micro DOW 15 min chart.
Why did we take this short?
1. Momentum is down on the 4hr
2. Momentum down on 1 hour
3. broke out to the downside on the opening range.
4. Price needs to recalculate below the 50 SMA of the TrendCloud.
#DowJones #US30 Weekly Wrap Up & Friday Levels In PlayIn this update we review the recent price action in the emini DowJones futures and identify Friday levels in play
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Trade Reversals Successfully - Key Price Action to look forIn the video I talk through the two trades namely trading continuation with Trend and then trading Countertrend Reversals. Both have their own price action points but are very different.
I review a continuation trade and the setups I look for when trading from level to level...but the main focus on the video is trading Reversals which can be very rewarding but also very difficult.
I like to stick to a few key points when looking for reversals, and they are :-
- Trade off an extension into a key level
- Trade off a higher low (for buys) or lower high (for sells)
- M pattern for entry confirmation or a minor lower high
In the video I explain the reasoning and how risk is managed.
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Dow Jones Formed A Leading Diagonal?Dow Jones Industrial sector is the strongest this week and we can see sharp and impulsive intraday stabilization that can cause a bigger recovery in upcoming weeks, but ideally only within a higher degree A-B-C corrective rally in wave B after we spotted a larger leading diagonal from the highs into wave A. So, we will still have to be aware of another sell-off on stocks, but maybe later, at the end of 2023 or beginning of 2024.
#DowJones #US30 Action Areas For The Trading Week AheadIN this update we review the recent price action in the emini DowJones futures contract and identify potential action areas for the trading week ahead
Opening Range Breakout on the DOW4 hour chart is in a downtrend
1 hour chart sideways / down
CCI is below -100
15 minute supply zone inside of the opening range.
Follow the TrendCloud process in the free trade plan.
Over $3000 in profits from the last 4 trades.
#DowJones #US30 Weekly Wrap Up & Friday Levels In PlayIn this update we review the recent price action in the emini DowJones and identify levels in play for Friday's session
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Live Trades and Price Action setups explainedIn the video I review my trades on the DOW Jones Index for the session and talk through the setups, price action and reasoning for the trades. I also talk through the overall bias for the session and the missed opportunity from my sessions plan.
Feel free to join in our live trading room....link in the signature below.
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** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
#DowJones #US30 Action Areas For The Week AheadIn this update we review the recent price action in the emini DowJone futures and identify action areas for the week ahead
PAST PERFORMANCE NOT INDICATIVE OF A FUTURE RESULTS
Example of Winning Price Action from a Live Trading SessionPrepping a market and having a defined directional bias coming into a trading session, is the key for a winning day.
In the video I talk through a Live Trading session we had with our group and the reasons why we were bias short.
I talk through the areas our traders hit sell entries and Where and Why I was happy to enter the market short once my ideal Price Action setup gave me all the confirmation that I needed.
** If you like the content then take a look at the profile to get more daily ideas and learning material **
** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated **
