Dow Jones (YMZ2024) - Shooting For The HilltopsLeading the pack, printing all-time highs just like the other stock indexes.
What's next on the horizon for the legendary Dow Jones?
YM1! trade ideas
YM! has recently shown a strong uptrend1. Technical Analysis
Price Trend: From the first chart, we can observe that YM! prices have been steadily increasing since early 2024, recently breaking above the 44,000-point level, indicating strong upward momentum. The trendline marked in the chart also shows that prices are rising steadily, with a recent pullback followed by a rebound.
Support and Resistance: The key support level for YM! is around 40,182 points, which is the recent low during pullbacks. If prices fall to this level, strong support is expected. On the upside, resistance may be encountered around 45,000 points, which is a psychological barrier.
Volume: Trading volume shows steady support for the price increase, indicating that the market has confidence in this upward trend.
2. Seasonal Analysis
In the seasonal data at the bottom of the chart, we can see average performance for different months of each year. Based on historical data, October, November, and December are typically strong months for YM!. For example:
November: In recent years, November has seen an average increase of 4.21%, indicating that it is usually a strong month.
December: December has an average increase of 0.70%, which is relatively smaller but still positive.
3. Short-Term Trend
The second chart shows the weekly price trend from early 2023 to early 2024. It can be seen that since January 2023, YM! prices have been steadily rising, reaching a peak in February before slightly pulling back and then continuing to climb. This trend suggests positive market sentiment and indicates further potential upside.
Conclusion:
YM! has shown strong momentum recently, with both technical indicators and seasonal data supporting further bullish movement. However, potential risks of pullbacks should be noted, especially as prices approach the resistance level around 45,000 points. If prices fall below the support level at 40,182 points, it may be necessary to reassess market conditions.
Dow Jones (YMZ2024) - Patience Pays In Conditions Like ThisIt's the best time to sit on your hands and gather more price data as there is a lot going on right now making the probabilities for a draw on Sellside 50/50.
High probability trading conditions is where i thrive in but right now, we are not seeing that.
Chart Idea - Bearish Setup on YM1!E-Mini Dow Jones had been making a bearish divergence on daily TF since July 2024. We also have been seeing it in an upward trend since Aug of this year. It finally it breaking today. It seems that the daily candle will close below the trend line today. If it does, we can look at the beautiful short setup on the retracement.
Entry - 42950-43000
SL - 43600
TP1 - 42000
TP2 - 41000
We hardly see these kind of clean setups. There is a high probabilty that it will play out before elections in November.
Not a financial advice !!
Evidence That Dow Jones Moves Based On FOMC ReleasesI can clearly see the support and resistance levels are formed STRICTLY based on the 8 hour chart and the FOMC releases.
Just the September FOMC release alone accounted for the support and resistance levels for up to 3 months.
Every 1/2 range expansion of the FOMC high/low represents a nice level to trade off of. These levels were planned out ahead of time.
Take a good look at the below screenshot of just ONE 8-hour candle for FOMC dictated the entire support and resistance levels, way ahead of time.
This entire Trump rally was planned ahead of time using September's FOMC levels.
OHLC Statistical Mapping + Average Range Levels Pre-Elections I expected big volatility prior elections and I entered at key time of the day 9:30 at key level +Manipulation. My Stop-loss was placed below 1/3ADR- and since I expected big volatility I targeted 5ADR
MYM Short 11/4/2024MYM is in a downtrend. It is the weakest market. Placed a short position in HV SZ above MA (the lowest SZ) that broke the previous low. Taking half risk because it is not an original zone. It is a retest of zone on the left (not marked). Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MYM Short 11/3/2024MYM is a weak equity market. The daily and 4hr are in a downtrend. Macro match. Price is testing 4hr 200EMA and Daily DZ (blue box). Placed a short position in 1hr HV SZ far above MA. Risk= $250. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MYM1! Price Action for 11/4
With no high-impact news scheduled, I anticipate price action will follow a similar pattern. I expect the bearish trend to persist throughout the week, allowing for daily plays aiming at 200+ tick moves. If the FOMC meeting on Thursday doesn’t shift the trend, I believe next week’s CPI report could drive a bullish reversal.
Lets collect these ticks!
Parabolic Trading Ambush Style (Mindset Reprogramming)I have come to the conclusion that every month, there are 5-8 easy, clean, parabolic movements that offer extreme risk to reward with very little drawdown and they don't come back. If I can only trade just these trades and forego the rest. Why trade anything else?
And of course, the grand daddy of them all. If I can only just make ONE trade for the entire month, it would be this one. Imagine placing one trade the entire month and making better returns than most.
Like an ambush predator that patiently sits there and waits for its prey, just this one trade in the entire month can make you significantly more than 50/50 piker trades where you get chopped up and get emotionally frustrated.
Pullback Sell Trade Idea In Down Trend 1000 Ticks PotentialHigher time frame bias is bearish retracement back down into 41,300 July FOMC level.
Downtrend, so looking for a lower high into resistance levels for trend continuations.
Right now the September FOMC High is being used as a potential resistance level.
Limit order at 42,518
Stop at 42,633
Target 41,383
YM Short 10/31/2024YM is in a downtrend. Placed a short position in SZ below MA (lowest zone). It is a weak equity market. Risk= $250. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
Dow Jones Futures November GameplanWhat I see is that the market is still in a bearish correction phase. I was wrong about it trying to bounce off of the September FOMC High.
November 1st is Non Farm Payrolls
November 5th is Election Day
November 7th is FOMC. This is the most important day of the month.
November 13th is CPI
November 28th is Thanksgiving
I am really curious as to where price will be on November 7th on FOMC. I won't really know until I see that candle.
To me, what is happening is countertrend bearish into support. Trying to form a bottom at 41,300 and then bounce off of that support. I am curious to see if price will get within a hair of the July FOMC purple line but NOT break it. I bet that this price is defended and will not get touched.
Using range expansion of the top, I have it in 0.5 increments.
Price is still in a downtrend. It was forming a consolidation between 0.5 and 1.0 before the next leg of the downtrend fell through. It is now currently in-between 1.5 and 2.0.
Price seems to be forming resistance levels at the half levels and support levels at the whole levels.
2.5 times range expansions are the Dow's favorite to hit before reversing.
I am expecting price to hit the green line and NOT BREACH the purple FOMC level from July.
DJIA/YM1 1D Bear ABCDDJIA/YM1 1D timeframe has active bear ABCD harmonic pattern. may see a quick bounce to form hns, then sharp continuation lower.
MYM1! Bullish Price Action for 10/31
This week’s overall trend for CBOT_MINI:MYM1! appears bearish, but during the NY session, we’re seeing strong bullish moves, often exceeding 200+ ticks. Given this pattern and the respected supply zone, I anticipate similar price action tomorrow (10/31).
I plan to enter at the 8:30 CST open, aiming for a 250-tick gain, and then sell as price reaches the supply area for a target of 280 ticks.
This is my first posted idea, so let’s hope it plays out as expected. Let’s collect those ticks!
MYM Short 10/30/2024MYM is in a downtrend. Placed a short position in SZ above MA. It is the weakest equity. Risk= $250. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
10/31/2024. YM daily chartYM Daily crossed sell signal today. Market could test sell point: 42269 intraday. Initial target is 41,629.
10/31/2024. YM 1hr chart10/31/2024. YM 1hr chart. Next leg down target: 41904
Buy side needs to get YM above 42,359.
YM Bullish steup 1h TimeframeIf 42246 as the daily low holds, bullish scenario of YM can be like this.
Re Entry Into FOMC High Support Trade 7 to 1 350 ticksThis post will be an update to my prior post regarding bullish price action back up to take out pivot highs.
Monday and Tuesday has been using the FOMC High price, notated in green line as a solid support level. The last twenty minutes of the day saw a spike off of it into the close.
Using Monday as the opening range and Tuesday as the initial balance, I projected a range expansion of the high to low and see that the 0.50 times range expansion lines up perfectly with a prior pivot swing. This will be my new target for 350 ticks.
I am already Long at 42,500 even, set with a limit order on the close of that fat bullish 15-minute bar.
So far, price has failed to break the low of Sunday's fat bullish bar as I was expecting. I said that I don't believe price will break that low and so far it is holding up.
After the 0.50 range expansion, the next price level of resistance is the FOMC high/low 1x range expansion at 42,978. One could have a target just before there but I am cutting mine at the 0.50 at 42,850.
The market is forming a bottom using FOMC High price as the support level. The November 7th FOMC release is just around the corner. I am wondering how price will create new support and resistance levels based on that 8 Hour candle. So far all of September and October has been following the September FOMC release.
YM futures trade idea We going long at $42,634 we have a few targets 2 contracts we have stop of 20 points ……
We going short at $42,563 we have a 20 point stop …..
YM Short trade 10/27/2024YM is in a downtrend in daily and 4hr chart. So, macro match. It is the weakest market among all the equities. Taking a short position in confluence supply zone (top HV supply zone that coincides with the 4hr 21 EMA). We have another HV SZ that coincides with 4hr 200 EMA (bottom zone). Risk= $250. Target= 1.1 from entry.
Dow Jones Futures Bullish Move Into Resistance 450 Ticks 10 to 1I will be looking for a Long entry with a limit order at the price of 42,420 which is the High price of the September FOMC. I will use a 50 tick stop and target the resistance level of 42,975.
I believe this week will be bullish as the down move from earlier was counter trend. I closed my short position on Friday with the expectation that price will bounce off of September's FOMC High.
Sunday, price opened up with a fat bullish bar and gapped up 0.30% right out of the gate. This tells me that they are going for shorts back up to grab stops and retrace.
The space between resistance is a huge clue for me that this is where they are targeting. The 42,975 price was used as support multiple times but not as resistance.
The three pushes into the September's FOMC High indicates the down move may be the end and the move opposite is in way. Since the high was made during the September FOMC release, it has not been used as a solid support level. It was only used as a mean reversion level that price has been mean reverting around.
