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YM1! trade ideas

DOW JONES: Double test on the major Lower Highs. Critical.Dow Jones made a double hit on the Major LH trend line created on the December 13th top. So far it has failed to close above it, which is a bearish sign. Both 1D and 4H are neutral (RSI = 53.203, MACD = 57.710, ADX = 22.013). Our usual approach with candle closes suggests that one above the Major LH is bullish (TP 34,490 R1) and below the 4H MA50 bearish (TP 33,450). Previous analysis: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by InvestingScope
4
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 29 YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 29 No trades taken for Dow last week as price stayed away from the boundary of the rotation zone. Market crawled up on declining volume, a sign of weakness. Possible scenarios: 1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation range 34605 / 32789. - Long if supported at 32789-33037 - Short if rejected at 34605-34432 2) Rotational breakout/breakdown: - If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support - If price breakdown, short when price retraces and is rejected Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = No demand Daily: Low vol up bar close off high = No demand H4: Ultra High vol up bar close off high, followed by ave vol down bar = weakness confirmed Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35750 35228 34432-34605 33037- 32789 30513 28635 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
1
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 23 YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 23 Last week, Dow Scenario1 rejection of 34605 short yielded 900pts (trail stop TP). With this rejection, DOW now exhibits rotation behavior 34605 - 32789. Possible scenarios: 1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation range 34605 / 32789. - Long if supported at 32789 - Short if rejected at 34605 2) Rotational breakout/breakdown: - If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support - If price breakdown, short when price retraces and is rejected Volume Analysis: Weekly: Low vol wide spread S>D bar = weakness Daily: Ave vol up bar close at high = No demand H4: High vol up bar closed off high = minor weakness Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35750 35228 34416-34605 32789 30513 28635 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
1
Aspects to Market Making Sentiment IIA period of low spread and low volume can indicate a lack of liquidity in the market. This can be caused by a variety of factors, such as a lack of investor interest in the security or derivative, or a lack of market participants willing to trade at the current bid and ask prices. In this case, a market maker may choose to adjust its strategy to manage the risk of holding a large position in the security or derivative. One strategy that the market maker may use is hedging, which involves taking offsetting positions in other securities or derivatives to reduce the risk of loss from unexpected market movements. For example, if the market maker has a large position in a stock and is concerned about a potential price decline, the market maker may use options or short selling to hedge against this risk. Alternatively, the market maker may choose to hold onto its position and wait for market conditions to improve. This may involve adjusting the bid and ask prices to attract more buyers or sellers, or reducing the size of the position to manage the risk of holding a large position in an illiquid market. The market maker's decision to hedge or hold the position will depend on the market maker's risk appetite, the specific market conditions, and the market maker's own outlook on the future movements of the security or derivative. In summary, a period of low spread and low volume can indicate a lack of liquidity in the market, in this case, a market maker may choose to adjust its strategy to manage the risk of holding a large position, one strategy is hedging, which involves taking offsetting positions in other securities or derivatives to reduce the risk of loss from unexpected market movements. The market maker may also choose to hold onto its position and wait for market conditions to improve, adjusting the bid and ask prices to attract more buyers or sellers, or reducing the size of the position to manage the risk of holding a large position in an illiquid market. The decision to hedge or hold the position will depend on the market maker's risk appetite, the specific market conditions, and the market maker's own outlook on the future movements of the security or derivative.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by NQQuan
2
DOW JONES: Oversold. A buy opportunity.Dow Jones turned red on the 1D time frame (RSI = 42.944, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 23.942) but oversold on the 4H (RSI = 24.370, MACD = -196.780, ADX = 55.260), which is the exact conditions we've been eyeing for a buy entry. The sharp drop that followed the 4H MA50 breach closed on the HL trend line. The pattern is a Rising Megaphone and right now the price sits at the very bottom. With the oversold 4H RSI reversing, this is a similar buying opportunity as the last leg of the previous Rising Megaphone on December 6th/7th. We have denoted S1, a pivot (P1) and R1, which is the target. A +4.30% rise is common on this pattern, it suits ideally the 34,490 target. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by InvestingScope
7
Dow Futures (YM) Looking for 5 Waves Elliott Wave Move LowerCycle from 12.13.2022 high in Dow Futures (YM) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 12.13.2022 high, wave A ended at 32686. Wave B rally ended at 34487 as the 90 minutes chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave B unfolded as a zigzag structure in lesser degree. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 33663 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 32750. Index then extended higher in wave ((c)) as a 5 waves diagonal. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 33613 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 32943. Wave (iii) ended at 34080, wave (iv) ended at 33489, and final leg higher wave (v) ended at 34487 which completed wave ((c)) and B in higher degree. Wave C lower is currently in progress as an impulse structure. The Index still needs to break below wave A at 32686 to confirm this view. Down from wave B, wave (i) ended at 33916 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 34131. Wave (iii) ended at 33318 and expect rally in wave (iv) to fail and Index to extend lower in wave (v) to complete wave ((i)). Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 1.16.2023 high before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 34487 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A. This area comes at 30385 – 31952 from where buyers can appear and Index can start to resume higher.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
3
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 15YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 15 Dow was ranging mostly for the past 2 weeks. A As market approaches previous rejection area, keep stops tight. No demand on all 3 TF, temporary weakness may be expected. Possibility of short on rejection if market crawls upward and is rejected at higher levels. Possible scenarios: 1) Short on rejection of 35228 / 34605 2) Long if test and accept at previous rotation 33663 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand Daily: Low vol level bar close toward high = No Demand H4: Low vol narrow spread up bar close off high = No demand Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35750 35228 34416-34605 33663 32789 30513 28635 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
1
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 01 YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 01 Welcome us to 2023. Wishing you much trading success for the new year and great health! Possible scenarios: 1) Short on rejection at 34607 / 32789 2) Long if supported at 30513 / 28635 Weekly: Low vol down bar close at middle = indecisive Daily: Low vol down bar close toward high = No Supply H4: High vol up bar closed at high = demand Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35750 35330 34605-34283 33455 32789 30513 28635 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
Dow Jones: Defenses 🍵When it’s cold outside, it’s always important to strengthen your body’s defenses. To boost its own immune system, Dow Jones is currently taking an invigorating sip of hot turmeric-ginger tea in the form of the orange zone between 33 283 and 31 689 points. We expect the index to expand this healthy swig to finish wave iv in orange. Afterwards, it should be bolstered enough to tackle the resistance at 34 707 points. There’s a 30% chance, though, that the warm beverage might relax Dow Jones too much so that the index could slip through the orange zone. In that case, it should drop into the blue zone between 30 955 and 29 934 points first before climbing upwards again.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by MarketIntel
Takeaways from the Fed Chair SpeechCBOT: Micro E-Mini Dow Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MYM1! ) The Fed’s 2022 Rate Decisions While we reflect on 2022, an eventful year full of “the unexpected”, rate hikes have undoubtedly dominated the headlines. In eight rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the US central bank hiked the Fed Funds rate seven times, taking it up from 0.25% to 4.50%. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 7.0% in December 2021. After a quick runup to 9.1% in the first half of the year, it came back down to 7.1% in November 2022. If the trend continues, we may end the year with an inflation below our starting point. However, current level is well above the 2% policy target. While the Fed emphasizes the need for on-going tightening, it expects inflation to be above 3% at year-end 2023. The Fed is on the right track, but there might be more to do. How did the Dow Jones Industrial Index React to Fed rate hikes? The Dow (DJIA) reached all-time high of 36,952.65 on January 5th. It pulled back 22% to 28,852 by September 30th on the back of three consecutive 75-bp rate hikes. DJIA closed at 32,920.46 on December 16th, down 10.9% year-to-date (YTD). The Dow’s Price/Earnings (P/E) was 20.49 on last Friday, down 6.9% from 22.01 year-over-year (YOY), according to Birinyi Associates/Dow Jones Market Data. For a comparison, S&P 500 hit 4,766 at year-end 2021 and closed at 3,852 last Friday, down 19.2% YTD. The P/E ratio for S&P was 18.91 now, down 35.1% YOY (28.69). Nasdaq 100 closed at 15,645 at year-end 2021 and settled at 11,244 last Friday, down 28.1% YTD. The P/E ratio for Nasdaq was 23.52 now, down 32.2% YOY (34.71). What do the datasets tell us? The Dow experienced a smaller correction (-10.9%) this year, compared to the S&P (-19.2%) and the Nasdaq (-28.1%). Its valuation, as measured by P/E ratio, is in line with the S&P and Nasdaq, all in the range of 19-24. However, the Dow’s P/E declined less than 7% from its top, vs. over -30% drop for both the S&P and the Nasdaq. Any trading opportunities? On December 14th, DJIA opened flat at 9:30AM. It began to fall after the Fed released its rate decision at 2:00PM. The index nosedived when Fed Chair Powell delivered his speech at 2:30PM Eastern Time. By the end of the following trade day, as investors fully digested the Fed’s policy, DJIA lost 884 points, or -2.6%. I put together a cheat-sheet to decode how DJIA anticipated and reacted to Fed Chair speeches throughout 2022. I denote T as FOMC date and T+1 the next trade date; Market Open at 9:30am, Market Close at 4:00pm; Rate decision release at 2:00pm, and Fed Chair Speech starts at 2:30pm; all the above in eastern time zone. Market reactions are represented by Up and Down. From Market Open (T) to Market Close (T+1), the changes in DJIA value were January -342, March +829, May -174, June -643, July +665, September -743, November -575, and December -884. All market data on DJIA is from Yahoo! Finance. Market anticipation and reaction were mixed in the early stage of this rate hike cycle. However, more recently, investors tended to have a rosy picture going into the FOMC, trading on the assumption of Fed Pivot. Each time, the Fed Chair speech brought them back to the reality of continued monetary tightening. DJIA declined six out of eight times. Average two-day change for DJIA during the last three FOMC meetings is -734 points. If we were to place a Short Futures order for Micro Dow Futures (MYM) for two days, we would have made a very nice Christmas bonus. MYM contract notional value is $0.50 per index point. Initial margin is $750 per contract. Hypothetically, if we captured 400 points, our 2-day payoff would be $200, or +27%. What’s the takeaway? Trading opportunities exist because the market is not aligned with the Fed. While Chair Powell made the point of fighting inflation forcefully over and over, investors did not take him seriously and kept dreaming of reasons for the Fed to end monetary tightening. While the Fed moderates rate hike to 50 bp, Chair Powell states that 4.25-4.50% Fed Funds is not restrictive enough. He emphasizes the “on-going” need for tightening. Policy target for inflation is 2% and there was never a discussion to raise it. It’s very clear that the Fed’s overarching goal is to bring inflation down to 2%. Pausing is premature. Next Fed meeting is on Jan. 31st - Feb. 1st. If DJIA repeats itself and moves up ahead of the rate decision, we may explore day-trading opportunities. In addition to the DJIA futures, similar strategies can be applied to Micro S&P 500 Futures (MES). MYM traded 285,803 lots with an open interest of 48,564 last Friday. Micro S&P is even more liquid, with daily trade volume exceeding 2 million lots. An alternative to the futures strategy is Options on futures. Put options on the March MES contract is currently quoted at $24.00. Options have bigger upside potentials if your market forecast is correct. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
10