YM1! trade ideas
Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022
We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.25% which declined from 3.45% last week.
Currently according to ATR we are on 55th percentile, and according to VXD we are on 30th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a stable market.
Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details.
We can see that currently there is 20.7% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel
TOP: 33385
BOT: 31160
This can also be translated as a 79.3% chance that the market is going to move within this established range.
At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a
35% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 33100
70% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 31700
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 07 YM1!
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 07
Hope you found our analysis from 17 Oct profitable as you saw
Scenario 2 Signs of Breakout being played out.
Possible scenarios:
1) Continuation long
2) Temporary short if 33326 / 32510 is resisted
3) Long if test of breakout 30513 is supported
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34807 34027
33326 32510 31793
30513 28635
Weekly: Supply > Demand high vol down bar = possible weakness
Daily: UT + down bar + High vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
H4: UT + UT + ND = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DowJones Targeting A 34000 TestTechnical & Trade View
Dow Jones (emini futures continuous contract)
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 32200
Technicals
Intraday 32200 is primary support
Primary pattern objective is 34000
Acceptance above 33050 next pattern confirmation
Failure below 32200 opens a test of 31900
20 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
Notes
33240 symmetry swing resistance long positions should be risk free if tested
Headline risk FOMC decision
Prefer to play bullish reversal patterns at support on H4/H1 timeframes
Dow Jones monthly points to WWIII bear trap ruse just like C0V1DThe strong bounce on a confluence of supports--plus the usual "but we've only seen the beginning of the bear market lol" articles--would strongly suggest that the yellow brick inflation road will continue (see both related ideas) and that recent market activity is another ploy to keep retail anxious / confused / short (valid for as long as the highlighted supports hold)
DowJones 32499 Target Achieved, What Next?Technical & Trade View
Dow Jones (emini futures continuous contract)
Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 32400
Option Expiry:
32499 Target Achieved…New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Intraday 32400 is primary support
Primary pattern objective is 33500
Acceptance above 33050 next pattern confirmation
Failure below 32200 opens a test of 31900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
MYM Showing Signs of Bull Trap | Market Structure"Show me the weekly charts and I'll show you the news"
For MYM/ Dow Jones we have a clear market structure being formed with lower highs and lower lows with a distinct trend line. There is still bearish news with inflation until December at least for the feds, the market is showing signs that we are preparing to go short for the next month or so.
If we close Friday with a wick on the weekly, prepare to enjoy some nice trends that shall sink like the Titanic over the next few weeks.
Dow Jones Futures: Close to front cloud chart resistance zone!Dow Jones Futures: Close to the front cloud chart resistance zone of 31442. Need to see a breakout above this cloud chart resistance zone to change outlook to bullish from bearish on the cloud chart. Critical week ahead!
We had a great rebound rally after rebounding from the 29490 support zones on the weekly cloud chart!
YM1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/24Dow futures are approaching their 50 day SMA after a rather aggressive bear market rally these past few week.
The ORANGE and BLACK channels overhead will act as resistance along with the 50 day SMA.
The market this past week was broadly oversold which is believed to support this relief rally.
All technical indicators point to a longer term bearish scenario at this time, at least until we start to see some technical and fundamental changes.
Dow Jones: Bar ExercisesOur athletic Dow Jones! After it has hopped from line to line, all the while finishing not only the overarching downwards movement in the course of wave iv in magenta but also waves (i) and (ii) in blue, the index has continued its fitness training with some bar exercises at the resistance line at 30513 points. We expect it to upswing from this mark, rising into the blue zone between 32567 and 33685 points to complete wave (iii) in blue, before starting a countermovement. However, there is a 45% chance that Dow Jones could lose its grip and drop below the support at 29640 points, thus triggering further descent below the next mark at 28635 points.