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YM1! trade ideas

Dow Jones February 2025 Monthly GameplanI am looking for a retrace back down to 2025's open price of 42,934 as notated in cyan blue line. After which, I am then looking for the bullish continuation to take out the highs and land around 46,250 zone. The average bullish monthly candle is 2500-3200 ticks using ATR. If price retraces to the yearly open and rallies from there with 3200 ticks, it will reach 46,250. That is my thought process. Using the 2 Hour, price has been consolidating around 45,000 before rejecting on Friday. Everything lines up to the tick. The first move higher and the subsequent measured move to the 2nd range expansion is 3200 ticks from high to low. The low from CPI is ripe for the taking. Of course, this is in preparation in what I believe to be a 20% drop from 48,000 down to 38,000. This trend is far away from the yearly trendline and a pullback to 38,000 would be PRIME buying.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Dow Jones (March 2025) - Trump Has Dow Jones In A Headlock!Happy new year traders! This is a perfect time to do a review on the Dow Jones continuous contract and YMH (March 2025) contract as it's the 1st month where you see the beginnings of the 6-Month candle form, which can be very powerful for gauging a bias. With S&P 500 & Nasdaq frontrunning Dow Jones, a close eye must be kept on YM as it might eb the first symbol out of the three stock indexes that decides to capitulate. If that occurs, there's a high chance the others will follow suite.
CBOT_MINI:YMH2025Long
by LegendSince
12% Correction Update Since NFP ReleaseJust updating my thesis since I can see NFP started another leg down. Still in a 12% correction down to 40,750. Next week I am looking for a slight pullback before another leg down/ dump. Buying in this downtrend is going counter trend. Until we get down to 40,750 and start to see signs of bullish reversals should you then think about going Long. Until the meantime, look for shorts. I honestly thought price was going to make a double top or more of a pullback in that range before NFP dumped. I guess the market wants to dump sooner and get down to 40,750 faster. I only react to prices and trade accordingly. The blue line is 2025 Opens price and so far, price is selling off of it. Next target is the Gold line.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
5
DJIA Index. Shake it. Bake it. Booty Quake It. Roll It AroundMarkets were shaked this Friday after the December employment report came in much stronger than expected. The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. The Nasdaq 100 immediately dropped by about 1%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, representing its highest level since October 2023. The strong payroll report further strengthened the case for no more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, at least for 2025. The moves in stocks and bonds are a continuation of what's been seen in recent weeks: Following a period of euphoric optimism, investors have started to anticipate higher inflation stemming from President Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies. If the upward move in bond yields continues, Americans will feel it in a big way. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now expect just one 25-basis point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations late last year of as many as three. The chances that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled Friday morning to 28%. Dollar index TVC:DXY rockets to the moon, while the 10-yr TVC:TNX strongly above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such a turbulence, as it's been discussed in earlier posted idea "Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point" . I remember, the financial market has had a tough weeks in last December, 2024, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025, as I noted those time. The market was on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it was clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting — and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead. Dow Jones Futures has ended 6th straight RED WEEK in a row - the quite rare event. The historical back test analysis over last 25 years indicates, it could lead to further (at least) 10 percent decline for Top-30 stock club. The major technical graph indicates on a bearish trend in development, where major 200-week SMA support is nearly 35'700 points in this time.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by PandorraResearch
The US govt. will not shut down! So where Are we heading now?How interesting is this—markets seemed nervous for 3 weeks as we approached the deadline to fund the U.S. government. The deadline passed over the weekend, and a deal was reached. Yet, here we are, with Dow futures opening down 80 points. With Christmas Eve tomorrow, it looks like the Santa rally got canceled this year. Five Dow components are already in bear market territory (down more than 20% from their highs). So, what do you think? Is this the perfect spot for a pullback, or do we rally from here? I’ll be looking for weak spots to short with a tight stop—and I’d love to hear your thoughts. Leave your comments below!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by onlytrade2win
A Bearish Move Imminent for the Dow Jones?My Plan for Tuesday Morning (1/7): I’m targeting a potential 700+ tick trade. The 400 tick dump back to morning open structure was an eye opener, and with high-impact news scheduled for 9 AM, I’m anticipating it will drive the market further down toward its respected price 42,511 . Let’s see how it plays out! After chatting with @Dow_Jones_Maestro I’ve realized that my strong bullish idea is likely off the mark, which means the selling pressure might not be over yet. Be sure to check out his most recent idea—it’s packed with valuable insights:
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Short
by GeneralJWS
26
Is the Dow Jones Poised for a Rally?Here’s my plan for Monday morning (1/6): I’m aiming for a solid 6:1 trade. Even with no high-impact news on the horizon, I’m confident price will reach its target regardless. I believe the selling phase might be over, and we’re now positioning for a significant rally toward the 46,000 level. A glance at the daily chart reveals a bullish formation taking shape, suggesting the potential for a strong upward surge to new heights: Let’s see how this unfolds this week—time to lock in and rack up those ticks!
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Long
by GeneralJWS
3
Will Dow Jones repeat itself? | Bullish Action Idea for 1/3While conducting my evening analysis, I noticed that the last time price reached 42,510, it pumped over 1,000 ticks during the morning open. This occurred on Friday, December 20th. Looking at the current hourly chart, price action seems to be forming a similar concept. This leads me to believe we should touch 42,510 by morning open and then push toward buy-side liquidity around 43,097 and beyond. If this plays out as anticipated, I’m aiming to secure around 600 ticks. We do have PMI at 9, so hopefully its high impact will drive us further through buy-side. Trying to get better at predicting bullish price action, so lets hope this plays out. Let's collect these ticks!
CBOT_MINI:MYMH2025Long
by GeneralJWS
11
Daytrading Setup First Green Day Low Of Day Buying OpportunityI will be looking for a low of day buying opportunity at/near the NY session for the first green day setup. I don't know how far down price will go first but after a double bottom at the Low of Day, I will be looking for price to confirm the low of day and close back inside the 20sma. Either Thursday or Friday could present. It all depends on how price behaves near the NY open. The target I will be targeting is the high of the dump day at 43,320. If the trade does indeed setup, stop is 65 ticks and target is around 500 ticks for a nice 8 to 1 potential. Trade management would be to watch how price behaves. This should be a parabolic trade and if I see price chopping around after entry, I will seriously consider tightening up the stop and reducing risk. It should go fast and not come back.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
10
2025 Gameplan B (RangeBound Doji Year) I think my last post is incorrect now that I have taken a wider step back. I still believe it is in a wide range but I was able to expand the range down into 40,000 as a more likely bottom of the range. The range I was expecting was too small. The much larger range lines up with yearly ATR. The weekly and daily charts are showing more downside potential and 2025 is expected to open right in the middle of the range, right where 2024 closed. I don't expect the high to break in the entirety of the next year but in 2026. Price needs to consolidate before it starts on the next leg to 69,000. In the immediate, I see price popping above the declining daily 20sma before the next leg down. Down to take out lows of September and down to 40,000.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Dow_Jones_Maestro