YM1! trade ideas
YM - Is Dow Jones Frontrunning The Markets?Unlike ES and NQ, YM has been doing its own thing but now we are at the crossroads and something has to give!
Dow Jones Trade Idea (Sell Limit) Bear Flag SetupThis will be my next trade setup. I will forego doing anymore buying inside of this bear flag. I have set my sell limit order at where I think is a good spot. Inside of the golden pocket of the weekly engulfing candle.
Feel free to enter in this same trade, of course using your own money management.
My limit sell
Entry: 40,117
Stop: 40,302 185 ticks
Target: 38,300 1,817 ticks 9.82 risk to reward
Once the bear flag has been broken, only then will I move to break even.
I expect this trade to be a 2-3 week hold
Dow Jones Buy Breakout 4 Hour SetupI just went Long using the 4 hour after the bear pin hammer's body was closed above by the next 4 hour bar, followed by this current 4 hour bar that is creeping higher.
My target is the Buy to sell red line at the top of this Bear Flag. I believe prices will continue higher in the short term. I am looking for 400 ticks.
My entry is 39,874
Stop is 39,794 80 ticks
Target is 40,274 400 ticks
I believe it shall take the rest of the month to get up there. Then the start of the new month I don't know.
Dow Jones futures eyeing bullish breakout?Sitting in a bullish pennant pattern with RSI and MACD pointing to building bullish momentum, it looks like we may soon see a test of topside resistance in Dow Jones futures, pointing to the potential for a bullish break or bearish reversal that may see the price coil up even further.
Whatever outcome eventuates, we can build a trade setup around it using topside resistance.
Should futures bust higher, consider buying the break with a tight stop below the former resistance level. The preference would be to see the price close above the level before initiating the trade as we saw a reversal take place the last time the level was tested.
The initial trade target would be 40213, the high set that day, with the record high of 40358 the next level after that. If the trade works in your favour, consider raising your stop to entry level, or using a trailing stop if we see the record high give way.
But should futures test resistance without being able to close above, consider selling the failure with a tight stop above the level for protection. Potential trade targets include 39658 and 39193.
From a fundamental perspective, renewed signs of disinflation in the US economy adds to the risk we may see more than one rate cut delivered by the Fed this year.
With activity holding up, at least according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate, the combination of rate cuts and resilient economic growth is the very definition of a textbook soft landing, an outcome that should benefit more cyclical indices such as the Dow.
DS
Dow Jones Weekly Bullflag / Daily BearflagI ended up cancelling my sell orders at 40,056 due to more analysis. I believe price will shoot past that level and head up into the red sell zone at the top of the bear flag.
Exactly where? I don't know. I will keep waiting for this pullback to continue.
Ultimately, I am looking for another counter trend sell down into the grey box area before the next move higher. I am long term bullish on Dow Jones, price target 150,000
The thick Cyan line is 2024's open price and so far, price has been range bound oscillating around this level. I am expecting some ranging below this level as well, down into the grey box.
To me, this looks like a giant accumulation area of buying inside of this huge bull flag in preparation of the next move higher.
Dow Jones Range Sell High Set UpMy last trade was a loss due to me selling in the middle of the range. Part of trading.
On the 4 hour, I have drawn my range better using the orange Buy to Sell box as the top of the range and the May 30th as the bottom.
I have marked the green and red dotted lines as stop loss liquidity targets
Currently price is in a bullish impulse move higher
I will take the aggressive entry with the limit order right under the buy to sell red line. Stop just above with 185 ticks. I am targeting the stops under the red dotted line and about the middle of the range because from there I am not sure where price will go after.
I don't want to guess a break out of the downside if it indeed bounces off the middle and breaks out to the upside.
If it breaks out to the upside then that will negate my bullflag thesis and I will have to rethink my longer term plan.
The conservative entry is when it breaks the bull move's counter trendline in green.
What makes me second guess the breakout to the downside is that this range is being stacked on top of the previous range with the May 30th bottom being right AT the middle of the last range.
Trade Entry:
Limit Sell Order 6 MYM Micros at Price: 40,042
Stop Loss at Price: 40,227 with 185 ticks.
Risk: $555.00
Target: 39,172 with 870 ticks
Potential Gain: $2,610.00
Potential Risk to Reward: 4.7R
Estimated Time For Holding Trade: 3-6 days upon being filled
Tuesday Sell Idea Dow Jones 5 to 1 TradeI have entered in short at 39,281 in the anticipation back down to the rising green trendline and the weekly open price as a counter trend trade.
I placed a 50 tick stop at 39,331
My target is 250 ticks at 39,031 for 5 to 1
Now to let the trade unfold. If it works great, if not who cares. Part of trading.
YM OHLC STAT MAP SHORTRinse & Repeat
YM offered gorgeous counter-trend! -D Manipulation + SMT! SL above +1/3 ADR
Short: -D Manipulation -> target opposing manipulation / -ADR
Dow Jones Daytrading Weekly Template Ahead Key LevelsSetting up my key levels for the current weekly template
I will be expecting a range week as it is inside of a bear flag.
Two levels that jump out at me are Last Week's Low and the middle of the range line at the bottom yellow box. I will be using those as targets.
I think the 12's CPI was the last lower high and this week will make another lower high and new lower low.
The average weekly candle is 947 ticks from high to low
Some scenarios I can see playing out are the following
It just depends on if price will work the high first or go down to the low and work that low. I will be looking out for June's Open price as a major resistance level. After going through the last 120 years on the monthly chart, 80% of all June's have been down months.
I will be mostly looking for sells and will be using my trade management of:
Max 2 Losses per day
50 tick stop losses
125 tick take profits 2.5 risk to rewards
No trading the first hour
4 Hour trend/structure
15 minute entry time frame
Shooting for 40-45% win rate
Dow Inverse Head and Shoulders Trade IdeasThe Dow has been relatively weak lately, but had a strong bounce off of support and formed an inverse head and shoulders, so I'd expect upside until that neckline is breached. First target would be the resistance above where it has already failed twice. If it's able to reclaim, I'd expect more upside and vice versa.
Very interesting similarity between the ES1! and YM1!I was recently watching a video in the ideas section of trading view and I notice this person speculates that the price will drop lower in the Dow Jones. Interestingly enough, this also lines up quite well in my charts. It's important to notice that many differences exist between these two tickers. The fluctuations of the CBOT_MINI:YM1! and the CME_MINI:ES1! are quite different. I had to adjust the n data previous points in the short term mean return indicator to 20 as well as set the sensitivity to 2. This way the chart was not overcrowded and easier to read. As well as larger short term MA and distribution was needed.
I'll take advantage of this difference to explain what happens when the parameters in the indicator change. There are two factors to the sensitivity of the indicator. One is the number of previous days considered (parameter n). The higher this value is, the less sensitive the indicator is, therefore it's better at detecting longer term trends. This is the reason why I include 2 in the indicator. One to see the short term trend and one for the long term trend. This in addition to knowing where we are in the distribution help me for a hypothesis of what is most likely to happen next.
One key factor of my strategy when trading is to never go short unless you are absolutely sure you are correct, always look for discounts and take profits. It's better to buy at discounted prices than trying to catch both waves of the market. You already know the market did one wave, what do you think will happen next? Of course, the next wave! I personally trade with no stop loss to not materialize erroneous entries and look to buy even more as prices continue to drop and are at attractive levels. Unless there is a clear possible break of market structure like it's visible here, as the 200MA has been used in the past as strong points of support and resistance. If this structure is broken, then it's quite possible that price will trend even lower, so this trade does require a stop loss.
When I was more of an intermediate and unprofitable trader, I relied a lot on two indicators, which did give me the ability to make somewhat accurate predictions. Since tradingview has kept increasing the restrictions on free accounts, I had to choose between two of my favorite indicators. The RSI and the MACD. I chose to keep the MACD as it's visible on previous trades. Mean Returns offers the value of these two indicators into one, plus tests out a new hypothesis that I've been testing so far with great success.
The basic premise of this indicator is to chart the market cycles in terms of average returns generated in the n periods before and the current one. Additionally, it creates the supposition that the market has inertia and therefore is likely to continue doing what it's already doing (aka: the trend is your friend)
I hope the original posters of the video @AdvancedPlays gets to see this and find it to be of value.
Always remember there are no certainties in the markets, only probabilities
Price Mean Reverting Around 2024's Open. Buy Low Target 120,000Price is oscillating around 2024's open price and is currently forming a bear flag to break down and start the pendulum swing on the other side of the open. This is where I will be looking to start scaling in my Long position for the next 15 years.
After it touches down there at 37,000 it will never come back. That will be the prime time to buy.
After it reaches price target of 150,000 in 2042, in order for it to reach 37,000 again, it must go through a 75% decline. The only time that has happened in the past was 1929 crash of 90% decline.
2024's Open Price and 2023's Closing Price are exactly the same
These will be my next three buys in 2024
Stops will be 800 ticks on the Dow
Targets will all be 120,000 price level
I will be building my position from now 2024 until about 2040
ADR on YM cookedYM again beautifuly respected 5ADR/ADR+ and my target was 1/3 ADR- as always, rotate this logic for longs and you can cook too. -ADR/1/3 adr and target +ADR.
us 30 buyyy/YM1!after going through my fundamentals
I have noticed that us 30 is extremely undervalued against us dollar and that my seasonality says we should be having a rally soon
so now I'm expecting price to get to that demand I will be watching out for buy signals on the 8 hours timeframe or 12hrs
follow me and stay tuned
ES1!/YM1! afternoon updateChart comparing ES1! and YM1!.
YM1!'s move down from 40213 to 38111 looks impulsive, bounce off 38111 looks corrective.
I'm looking for YM1!'s resistance to hold at 40213, and I expect ES1! and YM1! to both have two impulse waves down to complete their respective (B) corrective waves.
YM - Got A Mind Of It's OwnWhilst is rare to see YM do it's own thing in comparison to ES and NQ, threes a good chance equilibrium will be met between the three soon..... the question is when.
Targeting 38,350 for next weeks hectic price action.
Triple Screen Time Frame Analysis StrategyI am still trying to perfect my day trading strategy and am making this post for me to better understand all the moving parts of what it is I am trying to accomplish.
I will use three time frames
Weekly (Major Trend Direction)
4 Hour (Structure/Key Levels)
15 Minute (Lower Time Frame Entry)
On the weekly time frame, I will mark January 1st 2024 to December 31st 2024 for the entire trading year.
I will then mark the price the year opened at with a teal line. This is the open of the 12 month candle.
I will then open up the ATR indicator to gauge the average weekly movements using the 14 period
I then switch to the 1 period to see each individual weekly range. I can see that the 1 period ATR on average is roughly 1,400 ticks from high to low. Seeing how the 14 period's average is roughly 1,200 as well, I can say on average a given week should have roughly 1,200-1,400 ticks of movement from high to low.
The weekly trend is bullish and trending higher in a spike and channel.
Out of the last 31 weekly candles since the start of the move up, only 11 candles were of any bearishness. That is only 35% of all selected candles. The other 20 were bullish or a whopping 65%.
The 4 hour time frame is for the structure and key levels. Over the course of this year there has been ample buy opportunities followed by selling spikes into the uptrend.
A massive "W" is forming
On the 15 minute, if I can align myself with the bigger move and limit myself to one trade a day, if it presents itself, with my 3:1 ratio, then my win% shall increase.
I don't care how much further price went without me, as long as I hit my 3R target, that is all I care about.
My personal goal is a 40% win rate with my 3R system.
Market Crash - Dow Weakness and Ascending WedgeHere with yet another ascending wedge. The dow recently went on a huge run, I believe 8 green days in a row or something close to that. It topped out near ATH and nearly retested it's ascending channel before becoming extremely weak. It has now breached several support levels and has failed on retests while forming an ascending wedge and closing below on Friday. I expect a gap down on Monday and further downside throughout the week.
YM ADR precision entryToday again YM1! offered gorgeous delivery from 1/3 ADR+ to 1/3ADR-
This repeats nearly every single day!
When you are bearish you expect +ADR to behave like resistance and -ADR as support.
Dow Short IdeaI am still short the dow and obviously expecting it to move lower soon. It held trendline support today, but has resistance above still and is forming an ascending wedge. If it breaks the wedge to the downside, I'd like to look for more short entries if it comes back for a retest.
sell June mini Dow at 38854 limit, stop at 38936, targt 38372
Mini Dow is looking top heavy, looking to sell June mini Dow at 38854 limit, stop at 38936, targt will be 38372
