XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Just a quick update on my trade. I thought on the last 30 min. candle I was going to get taken out. Normally I would close half the trade to minimize loss but I am using a microlot size and I am going to let it ride. Let's see if we start pushing down or if my Stop Loss get hit. I am optimistic and looking for that push down to correct the move from the overnight sessions. Let's see how it plays out. Big G gets a shout out. Be well and trade safe.
CFDGOLD trade ideas
GOLD → Local bearish trend. Retest of support.FX:XAUUSD is technically looking a little weak. Support is being retested amid de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Interest in the metal is waning.
On Friday, gold remains under pressure ahead of data on the core PCE index, a key inflation indicator for the Fed. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, this could strengthen expectations of a rate cut as early as July, supporting gold. The probability of a July cut is currently estimated at 21%, and 75% for September. Amid dollar volatility caused by rumors of a possible Fed chair replacement and trade negotiations with the EU and China, traders remain cautious, awaiting clarity on inflation and monetary policy
Technically, before falling, gold may form a correction to 3320 (liquidity capture).
Resistance levels: 3320, 3336, 3347
Support levels: 3293, 3271
If the fundamental background remains unchanged and gold continues to decline towards support at 3293 and break through this level, the breakout could lead to a fall to 3271. However, I do not rule out the possibility that after a sharp decline, a correction to 3320 could form before the fall.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold Trade Plan 01/07/2025Dear Traders,
On the 1-hour timeframe for XAUUSD (Gold Spot vs. USD):
✅ The price has made a strong bullish move and is now testing a key resistance zone between 3345 and 3360. This zone has acted as both support and resistance in the past, making it a strong area of interest.
📉 We can observe upper wicks forming on the candles, suggesting buying pressure is weakening. The red dashed line on the chart indicates a potential bearish reversal scenario.
🔻 If the price fails to break and close above this resistance with strength, we could see a correction toward the 3290 to 3260 zone.
💡 Unless the price breaks above 3360 and closes strongly, long positions carry higher risk at the moment.
Gold fluctuates frequently, how to seize the opportunity?We started high-altitude layout from 3365. We took the lead in seizing this wave of decline opportunities and firmly held the bearish view. We harvested short orders all the way to 3325. The gold short orders were continuously stopped at profit, and the rhythm was very steady. The current market fluctuated repeatedly and the direction was chaotic, but we always insisted on executing the strategy - do it when you see it, and you can reap good rewards if you can hold it. Although there is support and resistance at the 3333 line in the short term, it is not recommended to chase more. The risk is relatively large. The key is to step back more. Wait for the 3325-3315 area to consider laying out long orders. We do not do dead shorts, nor do we blindly do more. We always maintain flexible response and rational judgment on the market.
From the current trend of gold, pay attention to the short-term support of 3325-3320 below, focus on the support position of 3315-3310, and pay attention to the short-term resistance around 3345-3350 above. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the mid-line position, keep watching and do less, chase orders cautiously, and wait for the opportunity to enter the market after the key points are in place. For more specific operational details and strategy updates, please pay attention to the notification at the bottom 🌐 and pay attention in time.
Gold operation suggestions:
1. Go long near 3325-3315, target 3335-3345.
2. Go short near 3340-3350, target 3330-3320.
GOLD(XAUUSD): Bearish Trend Will Resume SoonGOLD appears to be bearish on an intraday chart following the violation of a key support zone.
The broken structure and descending channel resistance line now indicate a tightening supply area.
A significant bearish movement is likely to follow. The next support level is at 3249.
From Congestion to Collapse: Understanding Distribution and H&S A Simple Lesson: How to Identify Congestion Zones in the Market — Schabacker’s Approach and the Head and Shoulders Pattern
⸻
👤 Who Was Schabacker?
🔹 Richard Schabacker was one of the pioneers who authored seminal works on technical analysis.
🔹 He lived over 90 years ago and served as Editor-in-Chief of Financial World magazine.
🔹 His most notable book is:
Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits
🔹 Published around 1932 in the United States.
🔹 Schabacker is often considered the “grandfather” of technical analysis, and much of the methodology traders use today can be traced back to his insights.
⸻
🟢 What Did He Teach?
🔹 Schabacker introduced a critical concept:
✅ The Congestion Zone
🌟 What Does It Mean?
When the market makes a strong move—either a sharp rally or a steep decline—price often becomes trapped in a range:
• Buyers at higher levels wait for further gains.
• Sellers at lower levels expect more downside.
But in reality, retail traders aren’t moving the market. Large institutions and funds—the so-called smart money—are in control.
👈 When these big players want to exit positions, they avoid selling everything at once to prevent a sudden collapse in price and to avoid revealing their hand.
✅ Their Playbook:
• Keep price contained within a narrow band between support and resistance.
• Gradually increase volume over time.
• Attract new buyers who believe the trend is still intact.
• Quietly distribute their holdings without alarming the market.
🌟 Why Do They Do This?
If they were to dump all at once:
• Price would drop rapidly.
• Everyone would realize a large seller was active.
• Institutions would get stuck, unable to exit at favorable prices.
🔻 So They Create Congestion and Distribution:
1️⃣ Sell discreetly over time.
2️⃣ Maintain the illusion that the trend is healthy.
3️⃣ Trap latecomers who buy into the range.
⸻
🟢 How Do You Recognize This on a Chart?
🎯 A Simple Example:
• Price climbs steadily from 3,000 to 3,300.
• Suddenly, it surges to 3,450.
✅ Most traders think the rally will continue.
🌟 What happens next:
• Price stalls between 3,380 and 3,450.
• Numerous candles form in this area.
• Volume remains elevated.
🔥 Inside this range:
1️⃣ Institutions sell into every upward move.
2️⃣ Early buyers remain committed, hoping for new highs.
3️⃣ New participants enter, unaware of the distribution.
🔻 What Do You See?
• Repeated candles oscillating within the same band.
• Failed breakouts above resistance.
• Sustained high volume.
✅ This is the classic Congestion Zone.
⸻
💡 How Can You Tell If It’s Distribution, Not Accumulation?
• Persistent high volume indicates steady selling.
• Price struggles to make fresh highs.
• Long upper wicks signal selling pressure.
• A Head and Shoulders pattern may start forming.
⸻
🎯 What Happens After Congestion?
• Institutions complete their distribution.
✅ Price breaks sharply below the range.
✅ The market drops quickly.
✅ Late buyers are forced to sell at losses.
⸻
🟢 Practical Illustration:
Visualize the range like this:
| |
| The Range |
| |
3380 ————> Resistance
| Multiple Candles |
| Multiple Candles |
| Multiple Candles |
3300 ————> Support and Neckline
✅ If price breaks below 3,300 on heavy volume:
• The distribution is complete.
• Price declines rapidly.
⸻
📌 Key Takeaway:
After any strong move, expect congestion as large players exit. Once they’re done, the trend often reverses.
⸻
🎯 Quick Tips:
✅ Never rush to buy inside congestion after a big rally.
✅ Watch volume—if it’s high, it’s likely distribution.
✅ Wait for a clear breakdown before shorting.
✅ Your target should at least match the size of the preceding move.
⸻
🔥 Let’s Cover the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
✅ What Is It?
A reversal pattern appearing after a strong uptrend, signaling the end of bullish momentum.
⸻
✅ Pattern Components:
1️⃣ Left Shoulder:
• Price makes a high.
• Pulls back.
2️⃣ Head:
• Rallies to a higher high.
• Declines again.
3️⃣ Right Shoulder:
• Attempts to rise but fails to exceed the head’s high.
4️⃣ Neckline:
• Connects the lows between the shoulders and the head.
🔻 When the Neckline Breaks Down:
It’s a strong sell signal. The market often drops decisively.
⸻
💡 Example in Numbers:
• Price moves from 3,200:
1️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Left Shoulder)
2️⃣ Down to 3,300
3️⃣ Up to 3,400 (Head)
4️⃣ Down to 3,300
5️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Right Shoulder)
6️⃣ Down to 3,300
✅ If price closes below 3,300 on strong volume, the pattern is confirmed.
🎯 Target Calculation:
• Head = 3,400
• Neckline = 3,300
• Distance = 100 points
• Target = 3,200
⸻
🟢 How To Trade It:
1️⃣ Don’t preemptively sell during the right shoulder.
2️⃣ Wait for a confirmed breakdown.
3️⃣ Enter a short position targeting 3,200.
4️⃣ Set your stop loss above the right shoulder.
⸻
🟢 Final Advice:
✅ The Head and Shoulders is powerful if confirmed by volume.
✅ Always wait for the neckline break—otherwise, it could be a false signal.
✅ Keep monitoring volume for confirmation.
⸻
🔥 Be disciplined in your analysis and decisive in your execution.
🔥 As Warren Buffett said:
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
⸻
If you found this valuable, let me know—I’d be glad to prepare more lessons. 🌟
Beware of gold, false rise and real fall
💡Message Strategy
The global economic uncertainty has intensified recently, and the gold market has performed well. On Monday, the price of gold rose by 0.87%, hitting a bottom of $3247.87 per ounce before rebounding strongly. The upward trend continued in early trading on Tuesday. In the second quarter, the price of gold rose by 5.5%, rising for two consecutive quarters.
The main reason for this round of gold price rise is the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has recorded its worst performance in the first half of the year since the 1970s. Market concerns about the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and uncertainty in trade agreements have weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar.
At the same time, global trade and geopolitical fluctuations, such as the Sino-US rare earth agreement, the progress of US-EU trade negotiations, and the uncertainty of the tariff deadline on July 9, have strengthened the safe-haven properties of gold. This week's focus is on Thursday's US non-farm payrolls report for June. The market expects 110,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, which will directly affect the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Although the Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates, the market generally expects that interest rate cuts will be resumed in September, and the annual interest rate cut may reach 66 basis points. Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve has also increased policy uncertainty.
Gold is driven up by multiple factors, but its future trend still depends on employment, inflation and tariff policies. Investors need to pay close attention to data and policy developments.
📊Technical aspects
Gold hit bottom and rebounded during the early trading session on Monday, and the price stopped after touching the previous low. The price stopped after touching the four-hour resistance position before the European session. The European session was under pressure before breaking through the four-hour resistance. After that, the U.S. session had consecutive positive days, and the price did not fall. Instead, it further broke through the four-hour resistance position, which means that the price still has the performance of testing the daily level resistance area. We will continue to follow the key breakthrough of 3300 on Monday and pay attention to the 3350-3360 area and then look at the pressure.
According to the daily level, after the price broke through the daily support last week, the price continued to rely on the daily resistance to bear pressure. At present, the daily resistance is at the 3360 area resistance. Below this position, gold can continue to be short.
According to the four-hour level, the four-hour key position is the key to our emphasis on short-term trends. Yesterday, the price broke through the four-hour resistance and is expected to adjust further. The current four-hour support is in the 3300 area. The price is short-term bullish above this position. After the subsequent high, it is expected to fall further after breaking the four-hour support again.
From the one-hour level, yesterday's strong closing, today's early trading again directly broke through yesterday's high position, so today's early trading low became the key. The price above this position tends to continue to test the daily resistance of 3360, so we will first look at the rebound, and wait until the price touches the daily resistance of 3350-3360, and then pay attention to further anti-K signals to see pressure.
💰Strategy Package
Short Position:3350-3360,SL:3370,Target: 3315-3300
XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) Breakdown
🔴 1. UT in Phase B (Upthrust = Trap)
This move above the previous high was likely a liquidity grab, not a real breakout.
Price action showed rejection without follow-through — classic Wyckoff distribution behavior.
→ 📉 Smart money sells into retail buying.
🔴 2. SOW (Sign of Weakness)
After the UT, price dumped aggressively and broke short-term support.
This creates lower confidence in bullish continuation.
→ 📉 Weak hands shaken, structure looks heavy.
🔴 3. Bearish Structure (Waves i–ii–iii setting up)
Wave I = first drop after the UT.
Wave II = current bounce — looks corrective, not impulsive.
Expecting Wave III = the next strong sell leg.
→ 🎯 Target: revisit 3,072 → 3,040 → PML (3,010) → even 2,955.
🔴 4. Volume Profile Confirmation
Price is failing to hold the high-volume node (3,303–3,327).
Below this = thin volume zone, which price tends to drop through quickly.
→ 🚨 Liquidity vacuum below.
🔴 5. Resistance Cluster Above
Multiple key levels between 3,500–3,563 = heavy resistance.
Also aligns with the invalidation zone for the bearish count.
→ ❌ If price moves above here with strength = bias invalidated.
Gold on upswing as expectedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: Since #3,337.80 was neckline for upside Bull structure, I was aware if it gets invalidated to the downside, it will open doors for #3,327.80 extension (which held twice throughout late U.S. and Asian session). I don't expect much Selling action today however Bulls need another Fundamental push to invalidate wall of Resistances at #3,340's and #3,350's. I will continue Scalping as opportunity arise / no Swing orders."
I have expected Gold to test upside extension where I Bought (Scalp of course) #3,342.80 twice towards #3,348.80 and re-Sold #3,357.80 - #3,362.80 belt many times (excellent returns). I will await area to be engulfed and only then make my move.
As I am getting many Fundamental inquiries lately: Gold's current almost #2-Year perma-Bull outlook is driven by more than Fundamentals - rising Global debt, Central bank Buying (especially by China), and general declining trust in fiat currencies all play key roles in Gold's perma-Bull stance. It's considered undervalued by some part of my analysis when adjusted for Inflation and Money supply expansion (like #M2 growth). Gold acts as a Long-term hedge against currency devaluation and systemic Risk, especially during Global conflicts or financial crises. Mining costs are also on the rise while new discoveries are declining, which supports Higher future Prices. With ongoing de-Dollarization and interest in Gold-backed digital assets, the Long-term future of Gold looks structurally strong.
My position: Gold is Trading within #3,350's belt which represents crossroads for the Short-term. Either #3,362.80 - #3,368.80 break-out to the upside towards #3,377.80 strong Resistance, or #3,342.80 - #3,352.80 break-out to the downside towards #3,327.80 Support. Current Price-action is ideal for Scalping since I don't expect major movement until tomorrow's NFP numbers.
XAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly LowXAU/USD Chart Analysis: Price Retreats to Monthly Low
In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430.
However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month.
Why Is the Gold Price Falling?
On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place.
On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports:
→ President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon.
→ The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations:
→ The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1);
→ The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2).
Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view.
A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GOLD H4 Accumulation Fractal Target is 4 000 USD 🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📉 Gold Pullback: XAU/USD drifted below $3,350, falling to around $3,325–$3,330 amid easing Middle East tensions and a firmer U.S. dollar.
🤝 Ceasefire Effect: De-escalation in Israel-Iran hostilities reduced safe-haven demand, capping gold’s upside.
💵 Fed & USD Dynamics: Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that policymakers aren’t in a rush to cut rates. A softer dollar provided some support, but intraday USD strength weighed on gold.
📊 Technical Watch: Gold remains in a bearish short-term structure below the 200-period SMA. Resistance lies near $3,368–$3,370; support cluster begins around $3,300, with potential slide to $3,245–$3,200 if broken.
🔮 Forecast Updates:
• Citi Research flagged that gold may have peaked and could undergo further softening in Q3-2025.
• WSJ notes gold posting weekly gains, with futures steadying at $3,339/oz.
• Another WSJ report suggests potential for new highs later this year—forecasting an average of $3,210/oz in 2025, a 35% increase.
⚠️ Market Split: Opinions are fragmented—Wall Street sees mixed short-term direction, while Main Street maintains a bullish stance ahead of key U.S. data (GDP, PCE, jobless claims).
🏠 Central Bank Demand: Sustained demand from central banks reinforces gold’s structural support.
🔮 Live Price Snapshot: Futures are up ~0.2%, trading at $3,339.20/oz today.
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️ A pullback is currently unfolding
▪️ Heavy resistance seen at $3,500
▪️ Possible re-accumulation underway
▪️ Scenario mirrors summer 2024
▪️ Accumulation before breakout
▪️ Downside protected around $3,150
▪️ Short-term range trading in progress
▪️ Bulls maintain strategic upper hand
⭐️ Recommended Strategy
▪️ Buy dips within the range
▪️ Look for entries near $3,150 S/R zone
▪️ Long-term bullish target of $4K remains intact
90-day tariffs expire, how to position gold next week📰 News information:
1. 90-day tariffs are about to expire
📈 Technical Analysis:
With the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill officially implemented, the U.S. Treasury may start a "supply flood" of short-term Treasury bonds to make up for the trillions of dollars in fiscal deficits in the future. Concerns about the oversupply of short-term Treasury bonds have been directly reflected in prices. The yield of 1-month short-term Treasury bonds has risen significantly since Monday this week. Slowing wage growth, falling total work hours, stagnant wage income growth and concerns about consumer spending are all signs that support gold.
From a technical perspective, Friday's closing long shadow small candle body, the price closed at a high of 3345 and a low of 3224. The overall idea for next week is to follow the trend and rely on the first short-term support of 3323 below to participate in long positions. Secondly, 3315-3305 is given below. If the support point is lost, then 3300 below is also in danger, and there is no need to overly insist on continuing to do more at low levels in the short-term rhythm. The key pressure above is 3340-3350, and the limit is the pressure of 3360 above.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3325-3323
TP 3333-3340-3350
BUY 3315-3305
TP 3325-3333-3340
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Critical moment! Where will gold go?After rebounding for two consecutive days, gold prices consolidated in a narrow range in the Asian market on Wednesday, hovering below a one-week high. Although the US dollar rebounded slightly and the market's improved risk appetite suppressed safe-haven demand, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and trade uncertainties limited the downside of gold prices. The market is waiting for the upcoming ADP and non-farm data to determine the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. The key technical resistance is $3,358.
Gold received a positive cross in June. At present, the monthly line has an upper shadow for three consecutive trading months, and the shadow is long, indicating that the upper selling pressure is relatively large; in this way, for the future market, we are more optimistic about the highs and falls. In the recent stage, gold is not interested in US data, but Trump frequently calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, which we still need to pay attention to. The sharp rise in gold in the past two days is not unrelated to the Fed's expectation of a rate cut. On the other hand, it is also related to the market rumor that the US President Trump's tariff deadline on July 9 is also related. If the US dollar index bottoms out and rebounds, ushering in a phased upward trend; then, it is bound to suppress gold.
Short-term resistance is yesterday's high point 3350-3360 area. If it breaks above, it is expected to hit 3375-80, and further 3400 mark; before breaking above 3400 area, there is still a large sweep range. If it goes up, the bulls will have a wave of acceleration, and the upper 3425 and 3450 may even hit the historical high. For the day, the 5-day moving average 3315 area will form a strong support after breaking through. If it rebounds and rushes higher, it cannot break below. Once it breaks below, the market will continue to fall, further 3300~3295, and then 3275 and 3255~45 areas; that is, the rise on Monday and Tuesday means the end of the bulls. Therefore, in terms of operation, the short-term relies on the 3315-3325 area to support low longs, and if it rises, it will continue to short with reference to the resistance area.
GOLD. Why is Gold Rising Again?The yellow metal is one again receiving support driven by two main factors. The first is the continued risk of failure in the negotiations between Tehran and Tel Aviv. The second is related to the chronic weakness of the U.S. dollar amid the American economy slipping into a recession, which may persist for a prolonged period, and the uncertainty surrounding the future global impact of Donald Trump's customs tariff policy.
From a technical perspective, gold prices continue to be in a long-term upward trend. The bullish momentum, driven by the aforementioned reasons, may continue after breaking and consolidating above the 3340 level.
Technical Outlook and Trading Idea:
The price is trading above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, as well as above the 5-and 14-period SMAs , which have crossed and are giving a buy signal. The RSI is crossing the 50% mark, also indicating a buy. the Stochastic Oscillator is above 50% and continues to rise.
In this situation, I believe gold should be bought, with a potential rise toward 3384. A likely entry point for a buy position could be considered around 3347.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another smashing day on the charts with our levels being respected perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips.
After completing our bearish 3348 and bullish 3376 target we had the cross and lock above 3376 leaving a gap to 3395, which fell short just by few pips.
We then had the cross and lock below 3348 opening the swing range, which was also hit perfectly. We got the perfect bounce, just like we analysed allowing us to buy dips and now seeing the swing range carry out the move. We will see if this is completed for the full swing range 3348.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3376 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3376 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3395
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3395 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3419
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3419 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3440
BEARISH TARGETS
3348 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3348 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3330 - DONE
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3288
3271
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD Long Setup – Watching 3247 Entry ZoneHi Traders,
The recent price action of XAUUSD has been a bit complex, but I hope this idea turns out to be profitable for everyone.
Feel free to share your thoughts if you see anything differently.
What I find most interesting is the entry zone around 3247–3245 . If we take the wave count starting from May 15, 2025 (3120.76) and consider wave 5 to be completed on June 15, 2025 (3451.52), then wave 2 should ideally retrace to around 3247.
On top of that, wave C of wave 2 seems to follow a clean 1–2–3–4–5 structure. If we treat the current move as a downtrend, wave 5 would likely complete right at 3247, which I find both accurate and technically compelling.
I'll be watching 3247 closely and plan to go long from there.
#XAU/USD SELL TRADE SETUP [SHORT]In this analysis we're focusing on 2H timeframe. As we know, Gold is moving in a strong bearish trend. The best selling zone is 3295 - 3305 key levels area. If gold encounters rejection from this zone, we can anticipate a potential decline in price towards its targeted levels.
Target 1:3260
Target 2:3250
Target 3:3240
Wait for a retracement to sell with strong confirmation and proper risk management.
#GOLD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction🟨 XAUUSD: Possible Pullback Before Major Reaction – Eyes on Reversal Zone
FaithDrivenTrades | July 2, 2025
Gold continues its bullish climb toward a possible intraday reversal zone (3371–3380). Technicals show a clean sweep of previous liquidity + bullish candle confirmation on H1. However, the broader fundamental backdrop now tilts toward short-term USD strength due to:
🔻 ADP NFP Miss:
ADP: 33K vs 99K forecast
Indicates weaker labor market, but Gold's reaction muted due to anticipation of Friday’s NFP and mixed inflation fears.
📊 Oil Inventory Surplus:
Crude: +3.845M vs -2.7M expected
Suggests soft demand → deflationary pressure → less urgency for Fed rate cuts.
📰 Trump Tariff Headlines:
Trump announces new 20%-40% tariffs with Vietnam.
Short-term USD pressure on trade uncertainty, but market sees longer-term USD safe-haven appeal.
📉 Fed Cuts Still Priced In (Sept, Dec):
CME Fed Futures show 2 rate cuts expected → supports bullish gold structure long-term
However, dollar’s resilience from ISM rebound + JOLTS adds near-term volatility
🧠 Market Sentiment Summary:
Macro: Mixed → USD Strengthening Short-Term
Risk: Sentiment cautious, NFP Friday key
Bias: Intraday Bearish Correction Possible, bigger trend still bullish
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?Gold rebounded as expected, and fell under pressure at the 3295-3296 line during the European session. This position was the key resistance level for the previous top and bottom conversion, and the range shock pattern continued. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple ideas remain unchanged, and we will continue to pay attention to the short opportunities after the rebound.
📉 Operational ideas:
Short orders can be arranged in batches in the 3295-3311 area, and the target is 3280-3270 area;
If the support below 3260-3255 is effective, you can consider taking the opportunity to reverse long orders and participate in short-term.
📌Key position reference:
Upper pressure: 3295, 3311
Lower support: 3278-3275, 3260-3255
Gold strategy idea suggests shorting at 3291-3293, perfectly capturing the rebound high point! Smoothly reached the profit target of 3275, gaining 18pips! If you are not able to flexibly respond to the market in trading, and are not good at adjusting your trading ideas and rhythm in time with the market rhythm, you can pay attention to the bottom notification 🌐 to get more specific operation details and strategy updates. Let us work together to flexibly and steadily pursue more profits in the ever-changing market!
XAUUSD – Gold at a Key AreaGold is now in a crucial zone with short potential.
If the market provides a valid bearish signal, I’ll take the short.
But if this zone breaks and confirms with a pullback, I’ll switch bias and go long.
💡 Remember:
We don’t control the market — we just try to profit using structure, setups, and solid risk management.
📌 Always risk max 1% per trade.
If the market goes against your bias, you only lose 1% — not your whole account.
🧠 One trade won’t make you rich,
But one reckless trade can destroy everything.
No gambling.
Just discipline, structure, and smart execution.
Who will be the winner in the battle between bulls and bears?From the analysis point of view, the short-term resistance above is around 3295-3301, and the pressure at 3315-3316. Focus on the pressure at 3324, the long-short watershed. In terms of operation, the rebound will continue to be the main short and look for a decline. The short-term support below is around 3250-3255. Relying on this range, the main tone of high-altitude participation remains unchanged.
Gold: Smart Money or Trap Money? Long Setup with a twistDescription
> Gold – Long Setup Breakdown
After a clean break to a new Higher High, price pulled back aggressively on volume. A lot of traders will label that red spike as bearish — but let’s unpack what’s really happening.
1. Structure Held
Despite the drop, the move respected the previous demand zone — a classic smart money move to test liquidity before continuation.
2. Volume Spike (Red Candle):
Could be:
A shakeout of late buyers, or
Aggressive shorting that got absorbed just above the key structure.
3. Quick Reclaim + Tight Base:
Price reclaimed the zone fast and started building a tight consolidation just above the reclaimed zone — that’s usually a sign of pre-expansion energy.
4. Buy Stop Cluster Potential:
The current compression hints at stops above being used as fuel for the next impulsive leg.
I'm positioning long here — not because of the breakout, but because of the retest that held above demand with signs of absorption and continuation.
But I want your take:
Is this absorption by smart money or a bull trap?
Would you wait for a second retest, or is this the real deal?
How do you interpret that red volume spike?
Drop your thoughts 👇 Let's build sharper analysis through debate.