Exclusive operation suggestions for future market trends!!!Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, so wait patiently for room for future gains. Technically, from the current hourly chart, the gold entity has always been above 3278, and it only pierced through 3275 and then began to rebound. If the retracement does not break the 618 position, there will inevitably be a high point in the future. So next, we should focus on the vicinity of 3280. If gold always closes above 3280, then the high point of 3297 on Monday is likely to be refreshed. Secondly, from the perspective of 123 seeking 4, if it goes up again, it is very likely to touch around 3310. 3310 is exactly around 618. And it is also the top position of this hourly chart range. Therefore, gold should be shorted above 3280 with caution, and the probability of touching above 3300 is very high. In terms of operation, it is recommended to directly enter the market to go long near 3280, and look at 3310-3320. If you want to short, you must wait at least for 3310-3320 before you can enter the market to short once.
CFDGOLD trade ideas
Final Trading Day Outlook for GOLD – Friday Bias and Trade PlanAs we head into the last trading day of the week, here's my outlook for GOLD ( CAPITALCOM:GOLD ):
Bias and Expectation
I was expecting a retracement from the 75% Draw on Liquidity (DRT) level — not just because of the level itself, but also due to its confluence with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a Bearish Order Block. And that retracement did occur.
Thursday delivered that deep retracement, courtesy of economic data and news releases. That pullback tapped into a Daily FVG and is now trading above its Consequent Encroachment (CE) at the time of this analysis.
✅ If today’s candle closes above the midpoint of that FVG, it will further confirm my bullish bias.
✅ Even more convincing will be a close above the upper boundary of the FVG, suggesting strength and possible continuation.
Market Structure Across Timeframes
🔸 4H Chart:
Price has raided sell-side liquidity and formed relative equal highs, a sign that the market may seek to attack that zone next — possibly as a liquidity target.
🔸 1H Chart:
The market is currently trading in the premium zone of the FVG, and shows a clear inability to trade lower, further supporting the bullish outlook.
Trade Plan
My trade idea for Friday is as follows:
Wait for a purge (liquidity sweep) on the sell-side, ideally during a Kill Zone (London or NY).
Look for confirmation and confluence based on my model (e.g. displacement, market structure shift).
Enter long positions targeting the next liquidity pool, particularly the equal highs formed on the 4H timeframe.
⚠️ Reminder:
Trade with due diligence. This is not financial advice. Always align entries with your personal model and preferred session.
📌 Final Note
Today may present strong opportunities — but patience, timing, and context are everything. Let the market show its hand, then act.
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or insightful, please drop a like 👍 and leave a comment — I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
All trading involves risk. You are solely responsible for your own decisions, so always conduct proper research and due diligence before taking any trades.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly.
May your final trades of the week be precise and profitable.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | February 7, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure (H1 Timeframe)
Looking at the current price structure, we can see that the price is moving sharply and steeply—this suggests the formation of a 5-wave impulsive structure.
Specifically:
- Waves 1, 2, and 3 (green) appear to have completed.
- Currently, wave 4 is forming as a 3-wave corrective structure (abc in black).
- Once wave 4 completes, we anticipate the next upward move as wave 5, which will complete the full 5-wave cycle (green).
🎯 Potential Price Targets for Wave 4
Based on the structure of the abc correction and support zones, we identify two key target areas:
+ Target 1: 3324
+ Target 2: 3311
When the price breaks above the top of wave b (black), it will serve as a strong confirmation that wave 4 has ended and wave 5 is beginning.
📈 Momentum Analysis
Daily (D1): Momentum is still rising and likely needs 2–3 more days to enter the overbought zone, supporting the continuation of the uptrend.
H4: Momentum is about to turn upward, signaling wave 4 may be nearing completion.
H1: Momentum is also preparing to turn up, suggesting the price is approaching the end of the wave 4 correction zone.
💼 Trading Plan
BUY ZONE: 3325 – 3322
STOP LOSS: 3215
TAKE PROFIT 1: 3345
TAKE PROFIT 2: 3368
TAKE PROFIT 3: 3395
📌 Wait for H1–H4 momentum alignment before triggering a BUY entry for wave 5.
As expected, it will fall and form a head and shoulders bottom📰 News information:
1. ADP data, for reference of tomorrow's NFP data
2. Interest rate cuts and Powell's dovish comments
3. Geopolitical impact on the gold market
📈 Technical Analysis:
Yesterday we expected gold to retreat to the 3330-3320 area. Today, gold hit a low of around 3328 during the Asian session, which is in line with our judgment of the market trend. In the short term, gold may still fall. First, it may test the 3323 support line. If it falls back to this position during the day, you can try to go long. In the short term, focus on the 3315-3305 long-short dividing line below. If gold gets effective support below, it is expected to form a head and shoulders bottom pattern. The short-term decline will accumulate momentum for the future rise. Pay attention to the ADP data during the NY period
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3323-3315-3305
TP 3340-3350-3360-3375
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Bearish drop?XAU/USD is reacting off the resistance which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,344.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,389.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take prpofit: 3,294.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSD GOING SHORTGOLD has recently broken its last low, shifting market structure (CHOCH) and indicating sellers are currently in control. This break opened up 2 clear Supply Zone above — a small base or last bullish candle before the drop — which is a key area where unfulfilled sell orders may be resting.
Price is likely to retrace back into these Supply Zone to fill those orders. Once it reaches this area, we expect selling pressure to resume and push price downward, honoring the imbalance left by the drop.
Entry:
I’m looking to sell from this Supply Zone on a pullback,
This lets me enter at a premium price while trading in direction of the newly established downward momentum.
Target:
The first Target Profit (TP) is set at the next Demand Zone below, where buying pressure might emerge. This Demand Zone is a key area to watch for a reversal or a temporary halt in downward momentum.
Stop Loss:
To control risk, the Stop Loss (SL) is placed just above the Supply Zone.
If price climbs above this area, it would invalidate the Supply’s ability to hold, signalling a potential reversal.
✅ Summary:
• Market has shifted to bearish after breaking last low.
• Supply Zone above is a key area to watch for selling opportunities.
• Sell upon retracement into Supply, with Stop Loss above and Target at Demand below.
Gold Trade Plan 30/06/2025Dear Traders,
📉 Technical Analysis – XAU/USD (1H Timeframe)
Date: June 30, 2025
🇺🇸 English:
Price has broken below an ascending trendline and is now pulling back toward the resistance zone between $3,313 – $3,324.
This area serves as a confluence of resistance (previous support now turned resistance + horizontal resistance).
A bearish reaction from this zone could trigger a continuation to the downside.
The potential target for this move lies around the $3,210 – $3,225 support area, which has historically acted as a demand zone.
Alternative scenario: If price breaks and holds above $3,324, the bearish outlook would be invalidated.
Summary:
🔻 Resistance zone: $3,313 – $3,324
🎯 Bearish target: $3,210 – $3,225
❗ Entry condition: Bearish reaction and rejection from the resistance zone
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold – Can It Recover From 3 Week LowsGold is back in focus this morning after it fell to a 3 week low at 3287 in early European trading.
Part of the reason for the fall may have been the on-going ceasefire agreement holding between Israel and Iran, which can reduce the need for Gold as a safe haven, or prices may have been influenced by comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick made to Bloomberg TV overnight which suggested that the Trump administration have plans to reach agreements with a set of 10 major trading partners ahead of the July 9th pause deadline to reinstate higher tariffs.
Of course, these potential Gold negatives need to be balanced against the potential positives of increased optimism in recent days that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by more than expected into the end of 2025 as the US economy stalls, and the US dollar printing a fresh 3 year low yesterday.
Looking forward, the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index at 1330 BST later today could hold the key to whether Gold falls below support to even lower levels (see technical section below) or moves back higher again into Friday’s close.
Whatever the outcome, its setting up for an interesting end of the week for Gold.
Technical Update:
With selling pressure developing in Gold again so far this morning, traders might well be searching for next support levels that may be successful in limiting current price declines, or if broken, could in turn lead to a more extended phase of weakness.
Much will depend on future price trends and market sentiment, but as the chart above shows, latest price activity is this morning posting new 3-week lows for Gold. This suggests traders might now be focused on 3245, equal to the last correction low in price posted on May 29th as the next possible support level.
While not a guarantee of further declines if broken, 3245 closing breaks could lead to further price weakness towards 3120, the May 15th downside extreme.
Of course, it is possible this 3245 low does continue to act as support to price weakness and may turn activity higher again. However, if this is to lead to a more sustained period of price strength, resistance might now stand at 3356.
Equal to the Bollinger mid-average, closing breaks might be required to suggest possibilities to resume price strength back towards the 3435/3452 May 6th and June 16th price failure highs.
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I have shorted gold as expected and held on patientlyEven under the influence of the ADP data, which is bullish for the gold market, gold has not effectively broken through 3350, and even showed signs of falling back after rising several times. The resistance above is becoming more and more obvious, which may further weaken the market's bullish sentiment and confidence, thereby strengthening the dominance of the bears.
Although gold has not effectively fallen yet, from the perspective of the gold structure, even if gold wants to rise, it still needs to be backtested and support confirmed before rising, and the current retracement is far from enough, so gold still has a need for structural retracement; and before the NFP market, gold rose slowly but was far from enough to break upward, and there was no volume support, so the illusion of gold rising may be to lure and capture more bulls;
Therefore, out of caution, I try to avoid chasing gold at high levels; and I believe that shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present. And I have executed short trades in the 3340-3350 area according to the trading plan, and held it patiently. I hope that gold can retreat to the 3320-3310-3300 area as expected.
Gold may need to retreat to around 3300 againYesterday, the gold rebound stopped at around 3358, and then began to retreat. After that, it even failed to stand above 3350 during the rebound process, which to a certain extent hit the confidence of the bulls;
At present, gold has retreated to the area near 3330 again. Although gold has fallen slowly, the center of gravity of gold is still shifting downward in the short term, and the trading volume of gold is gradually increasing when it is falling, so I think the short position may not be over, and the 3330 area may be broken at any time; and the support area that really deserves our attention is first the 3320-3315 area, followed by the 3300-3295 area;
From the current gold structure, I think gold may still test the area near 3300 again before rising. Only after gold retreats to the area near 3300, it is possible to build an A-B-C head and shoulders bottom structure at the technical level (as shown in the figure), which can also help gold build a complete and effective rising structure, so gold has the need to retreat to the area near 3300 to build a right shoulder structure.
Therefore, I think shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading at present; you can consider shorting gold in the 3335-3355 area, looking at the target area of 3320-3310-3300.
A LITTLE MORE RALLY?After price closed strong bearing the previous week, we have witnessed a massive rally back up into weekly highs. Even after 2 days of rally, this strong bullish pressure doesn't seem to be over looking at today's strong daily closure. We might just see price extend a little further into weekly highs as shown and now based on strong confirmations, a plunge back down into April's lows.
A continuation of the rally may be seen after price taps into the current daily demand region as indicated on the chart. Fingers crossed for confirmations
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook — July 1, 2025In the world of financial markets, few assets capture global attention like gold. A timeless store of value, gold continues to act as both a hedge against uncertainty and a battleground for technical traders seeking high-probability setups. As of today, gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3328, a level that places it just beneath the most recent multi-month high at $3345. The recent surge in price is underpinned by both macroeconomic factors and bullish technical structure. However, as any seasoned trader knows, trends rarely move in straight lines — and gold is now approaching a technically sensitive juncture.
I. Gold’s Structural Landscape on the 4-Hour Chart
The four-hour chart reveals a textbook bullish trend. Beginning with a significant impulse from the $3194 base, gold has climbed steadily, printing higher highs and higher lows. The most recent break of structure (BOS) above $3312 confirmed the continuation of bullish intent, while the market remains firmly above key swing lows — signaling that the bullish regime has not yet been invalidated.
Price action shows clean, impulsive expansions followed by short consolidations, with buyers continuing to absorb supply at every retracement. Despite that strength, gold has now reached a potential exhaustion point, with the price reacting to overhead supply at $3345–3355, forming what could be an early-stage distribution zone.
Key Market Structure Developments:
BOS at $3312: confirms uptrend
No CHoCH (Change of Character) yet — no confirmed bearish reversal
Clean liquidity grab above $3345, followed by rejection — hinting at short-term profit-taking or internal bearish intent
II. The Fibonacci Grid: Retracement and Extension Zones
Applying Fibonacci retracement from the $3194 swing low to the $3345 high offers crucial levels of interest. The golden ratio at 61.8% ($3253) aligns perfectly with prior demand and a 4-hour bullish order block. Similarly, the 38.2% level at $3285 corresponds with a minor liquidity pool and potential reaccumulation base.
Fibonacci Level Price
23.6% $3308
38.2% $3285
50.0% $3269
61.8% $3253
78.6% $3228
On the extension side, should gold resume its rally beyond $3345, projected Fibonacci targets sit at $3372 (127.2%) and $3410 (161.8%), with both acting as measured projections for trend continuation.
III. Supply and Demand: Mapping Institutional Footprints
Institutional activity is best observed through unmitigated supply and demand zones — areas where large orders caused rapid price displacement. Gold currently trades between two such zones:
Demand Zone: $3250–$3260 — a sharp bullish rejection occurred here on the last visit, indicating strong buy-side interest and likely pending buy orders
Supply Zone: $3345–$3355 — where a sell-side liquidity grab recently occurred, followed by a strong rejection candle
These two zones bracket the market and serve as the highest probability areas for future reactions.
IV. The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Framework
SMC theory revolves around observing the footprints of large market participants — often labeled “smart money.” In gold’s current structure, SMC tools provide a clearer roadmap than standard indicators.
Current Observations:
Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed at $3312 (bullish continuation)
Change of Character (CHoCH): Absent (bull trend intact)
Buy-Side Liquidity Grab: Above $3345 — trapped breakout buyers likely fuel for reversal
Sell-Side Liquidity Pool: Uncollected beneath $3280 — probable magnet for a liquidity sweep
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between $3260 and $3280 — price inefficiency offering high-probability reentry for smart money
Bullish Order Block (OB): At $3250–$3260 — final down candle before explosive up move, unmitigated
All these elements point to a high-probability pullback, rather than a full-blown reversal. Until structure is broken with a CHoCH, the base case remains bullish.
V. High-Probability Levels for 4-Hour-Based Opportunities
From this framework, we identify the following key price levels:
The highest-probability reaction is expected at $3250–$3260, where smart money is likely to re-engage if price retraces.
VI. Refinement on the 1-Hour Chart: Intraday Trade Setups
Zooming into the 1-hour chart allows us to fine-tune our execution strategy. Gold is consolidating just below $3330, forming what appears to be an ascending triangle — a common bullish continuation structure — but within the broader context of a possible short-term pullback.
Intraday Trade Idea #1 — High-Conviction Long
Entry: $3260
Stop-Loss: $3245
Take-Profit 1: $3308
Take-Profit 2: $3340
Risk–Reward: ~1:4
Rationale: Aligned with 4H demand, fair value gap, OB, and golden ratio retracement. Structure remains bullish.
Intraday Trade Idea #2 — Speculative Short (Low Conviction)
Entry: $3340–$3350
Stop-Loss: $3362
TP1: $3305
TP2: $3285
Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5
Rationale: Countertrend, only viable if bearish rejection candle forms. Not aligned with dominant 4H structure.
VII. The Golden Setup: Long from Demand + FVG Confluence
Among all technical configurations, the long setup at $3260 emerges as the most compelling. It is supported by:
An unmitigated bullish order block
A clear fair value gap
61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Untouched sell-side liquidity below
Directional alignment with trend
Institutional demand pattern
This setup offers both superior risk-to-reward and a technical foundation that aligns with Smart Money’s modus operandi. It represents a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for traders who wait for price to re-enter the value zone and confirm with bullish order flow (e.g., a bullish engulfing or BOS on 15m).
VIII. Final Thoughts and Tactical Summary
As of July 1, 2025, the gold market reflects strong bullish momentum, albeit entering a corrective phase that should not be mistaken for reversal. While intraday volatility and range compression may tempt countertrend trades, the smartest play remains to wait for a discounted reentry into a zone of value.
Until structure shifts significantly, the dominant trading thesis remains: “Buy the dip into institutional zones”. Patience, not aggression, will separate the retail trader from the professional in today’s complex market structure.
GOLD XAUUSD THE month of july 1 Key Economic Outlook ;
Central Bank Speeches
(1)The bank of England head (BOE) Gov Bailey might speak in context on BOE 4.25% rate cut ,uk inflation about 3.45% is still above limit and the goal is 2%.my focus will be on his rhetoric's ,if he sounds dovish or Hawkish tones, then GBP will react to the sentiment.
(2)Bank of japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda will center on rate held steady at 0.5% and core inflation remains above 2%,market will watch the sentiment because its likely he will address yield -curve control adjustments or hawkish signals , which will potentially boost JPY AND JP10Y
the head of united states Fed reserve Chair, sir! Powell will speak and it comes with red folder ,the last monetary policy meeting kept Fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50% ,Powell recently emphasized patience on rate cuts based on cautious wait and see approach
Key Messages Expected:
Tariff-driven inflation risks require vigilance.
Rate cuts unlikely until September unless inflation cools markedly.
"No urgency" to ease policy amid solid labor market.
US Economic Data Releases
Final Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.0 Neutral if unchanged; USD positive if >52.0.
ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.5 Contractionary (<50); USD negative if <48.5.
JOLTS Job Openings 7.32M 7.39M USD negative if <7.32M (labor cooling).
ISM Manufacturing Prices 69.6 69.4 USD positive if >69.6 (inflationary pressure).
Construction Spending -0.2% -0.4% Limited impact unless significantly below forecast.
Market Implications
USD: Powell’s tone is critical. Hawkish remarks (delayed cuts) could lift DXY; dovish hints may weaken it. Data surprises (especially ISM/JOLTS) could amplify volatility.
GBP/JPY: Bailey/Ueda speeches may drive cross-pairs. BOJ hawkishness could weaken EUR/JPY carry trades.
Risk Assets: Weak ISM/JOLTS data may pressure equities (US30) and boost bonds (↓US10Y).
Summary of Key Risks
Powell Speech: Reiteration of "no imminent cuts" likely. Watch for tariff-inflation warnings.
ISM/JOLTS: Sustained manufacturing contraction or softer labor demand could fuel recession fears.
Carry Trades: JPY strength (Ueda) may pressure EUR/JPY/AUD if BOJ signals policy shift.
#gold #xauusd #gbp #jpy
Continue to short gold below 3300Continue to short gold below 3300
Gold prices fell to a four-week low, but rebounded slightly
Spot gold: Today's lowest hit $3247/oz (the lowest since May 29), and then rebounded to $3296/oz.
Risk aversion cooled, trade easing suppressed gold prices
US-China trade easing: China and the United States reached an agreement on rare earth exports, boosting the stock market (S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs), weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.
G7 tax agreement: Reduce global policy uncertainty, further suppress gold prices.
Trump terminated trade negotiations with Canada and threatened to impose tariffs, which temporarily boosted risk aversion.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut have increased, but short-term hawkish remarks have brought pressure
The market expects a 92.5% probability of a rate cut in September (65-75 basis points for the whole year), but Powell said that the impact of tariffs needs to be waited and see, and the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%.
Trump said he would appoint a Fed chair who is "willing to cut rates," adding to policy uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks remain
Iran situation: Trump's threat to "bomb Iran again" and abandon sanctions relief has temporarily supported gold prices.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, but the market has partially digested the risk.
Key technical support and resistance levels
Support:
$3,250 (
$3,200 (if broken, it may fall to $3,120)
Resistance:
$3,280-3,290 (4-hour chart head and shoulders neckline).
$3,306-3,322 (if broken, it may rebound further).
Downside risks:
Trade optimism (US-China trade war, G7 agreement) may continue to suppress safe-haven demand.
If non-farm payrolls are strong this week (released on Thursday), it may push up the dollar and further suppress gold prices.
Upside support:
Geopolitical risks (Iran, Russia-Ukraine conflict) may trigger safe-haven buying.
Fed rate cut expectations still provide long-term support for gold.
Key variables:
July 9 The deadline for US tariff negotiations is on July 15. If no consensus is reached, it may trigger risk aversion in the market.
Fed policy signal: If economic data is weak, expectations of rate cuts may drive gold prices back up.
Technical pattern:
If gold prices hold $3,250, it may rebound to $3,330-3,350.
If it falls below $3,250/3,200, it may fall to $3,120.
Short-term traders: Pay attention to the breakthrough of the $3245-3280 range. If it rebounds to around $3,300, you can consider shorting on rallies. If it falls below $3,245, it may accelerate downward.
Gold is in the Bearish DirectionHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Gold fluctuates during the day, short-term profits will be left
📌Main driving events of gold
The big non-agricultural data in the United States caused the gold price to fall by almost 40 US dollars in one breath, but after a short emotional storm, the market returned to calm. Today's market began to bottom out and rise. As of now, the non-agricultural market has been backed by 50%, and the energy of the shorts has been basically digested. Next, the bulls will start to exert their strength! Today's direction is still the same and continue to be bullish!
📊Comment analysis
In the US market, the gold price rebounded after the decline and the bottom of the second retracement appeared. The support level is 3322. After a night of fluctuations, gold has begun to rise, and the low point has begun to rise. The key point of the day is still 3323. In the morning, we wait for the gold price to fall back to around 3323 and we will buy the bottom and go long. We don’t expect to surpass yesterday’s high point during the day, but at least it will go to 3350!
💰Strategy Package
Long position:
Gold long at 3322-3327, stop loss 3315, target 3350-3360
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
Gold Trading Strategy for 500 Pips !Dear friends!
The exit from the bearish channel has led to an impressive price increase. At the time of writing, the financial market is trading above the $3,300 mark. The uptrend is very strong as it consolidates at high levels with stable trading activity on the 2-hour time frame.
Therefore, the upcoming reports on US employment and manufacturing are highly anticipated. This has contributed to the market being hotter than ever. The price increase is expected to reach $3,385, if the Fed signals monetary policy easing. What do you think about this? Do you agree with me?