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CFDGOLD trade ideas

Bait. Trigger. Collapse!🎯 XAUUSD 1H – Anticipating the Upside Fakeout Before the Real Drop 📉 Trade Breakdown: Gold is consolidating just beneath a 1H supply zone (3344–3356), forming the classic structure for a liquidity trap. The expectation: price fakes out to the upside, taps the supply zone, and then reverses with a clean bearish move toward 3207. This isn’t just a technical setup — it’s fundamentally fueled by a blowout NFP report. ⸻ 📍 Key Technical Confluences: • 🔸 1H supply zone: 3344–3356 (clean bearish reaction) • 🔸 Consolidation beneath supply = energy buildup • 🔸 Likely upside fakeout into supply → then rejection • 🔸 Equal lows + inefficiency below = target-rich zone • 🔸 3207 = next major demand / clean target ⸻ 📰 Fundamental Fuel: • 🔹 NFP came in strong (206K vs. expected ~190K) • 🔹 Dollar surged, yields rebounded → gold dropped • 🔹 Rate cut hopes fading = bullish for USD, bearish for XAU/USD • 🔹 Market is now adjusting expectations → selling gold aggressively • 🔹 Gold already fell post-NFP, but this pullback into supply gives sellers a second entry ⸻ 📈 Execution Plan: • Entry: After upside sweep into 3344–3356 with M15–H1 rejection • Stop Loss: Above 3356 (supply invalidation) • Take Profit: 3207 (clean structure + news-driven momentum) • Optional sniper trigger: Wick rejection during NY session or USD news spike ⸻ 🧠 Mindset: This setup is time-sensitive. It’s not just about structure — it’s about who’s trapped and what the market believes post-NFP. Don’t chase candles. Wait for the manipulation to finish — then strike with precision. “Trade Simple. Live Lavish.” -Quil Lavish
FX:XAUUSDShort
by QuilLavish
gold Indicator Actual Forecast Previous Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.4% — Non-Farm Employment Change 147K 111K 139K Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.3% 4.2% Unemployment Claims 233K 240K 236K Interpretation and Implications Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Rose by 0.3%, slightly below the forecast of 0.4%. This suggests wage growth is steady but not accelerating, which may ease some inflation concerns. Non-Farm Employment Change: The US economy added 147,000 jobs, beating both the forecast (111K) and the previous month (139K). This indicates continued, though moderate, labor market expansion. Unemployment Rate: Fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and down from 4.2% previously. This points to a modest improvement in labor market conditions. Unemployment Claims: Dropped to 233,000, lower than both the forecast (240K) and last month (236K). This signals fewer new layoffs and continued resilience in the job market. Market Impact Dollar (USD): The combination of stronger-than-expected job growth and a lower unemployment rate is generally supportive for the US dollar, as it suggests the labor market remains robust. However, slightly softer wage growth may temper expectations for aggressive Fed tightening going forward. Federal Reserve Outlook: These figures reinforce the Fed’s “data-dependent” stance. Solid job creation and falling unemployment reduce urgency for immediate rate cuts, but the lack of wage acceleration may allow the Fed to maintain a cautious approach. In summary: The US labor market in July 2025 shows moderate strength, with job gains and a falling unemployment rate, while wage growth remains steady but not excessive. This mix supports a stable outlook for the dollar and gives the Fed flexibility in its upcoming policy decisions.
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Today's bearish target for gold prices: 3300Today's bearish target for gold prices: 3300 Technical analysis: Short-term support: $3330-3320 (5-day and 10-day moving averages), Short-term resistance: $3360-3374 (61.8% retracement). If it falls below $3330, it may fall to the $3306-3320 range; If it breaks through $3374, it may challenge the previous high of $3450. The daily chart shows that gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, and the MACD red column has expanded, but the RSI (60-65) shows a good bullish momentum. 2. Main influencing factors Federal Reserve policy and non-agricultural data: The market focuses on the US non-agricultural employment data for June released tonight (July 3) (expected to increase by 106,000, and the previous value was an increase of 139,000). If the data is weak (for example, the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%), it may strengthen the expectation of a rate cut in September, which is good for gold; On the contrary, if the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back. The unexpected contraction of the ADP employment data in June (a decrease of 33,000 jobs) has pushed up the expectation of a rate cut in advance. Geopolitics and safe-haven demand: If the situation in the Middle East (such as the Iranian nuclear issue) escalates, it may push up the price of gold, but the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has weakened the short-term safe-haven support. The continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world (net purchase of 289 tons in the second quarter of 2025) constitutes long-term support. The US dollar and interest rates: The US dollar index has weakened recently, but if the Fed postpones the rate cut (the probability of a rate cut in September is currently 75%), it may suppress the price of gold. 3. My views and market forecasts: In the short term, the price of gold will fluctuate, and the trend depends on the non-agricultural data. If the data is weak, the price of gold may rise to $3370-3400; If the data is strong, the price of gold may fall back below $3300. I think the possibility of a fall is high. In the short term, I prefer the strategy and trading ideas of shorting at high prices below 3360-3370. Suggestions: Short-term trading: Pay attention to the breakthrough opportunities after the release of non-agricultural data. You can go long at the support level (3330-3320 US dollars) and try to go short at the resistance level (3360-3374 US dollars). Flexibly adjust the strategy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD, March 7, 2025🌀 Elliott Wave Structure On the H1 chart, wave 3 appears to have completed, and price is now entering a phase with an unusual structural behavior. Wave 3 previously showed strong momentum, moving steeply and continuously, with no clear internal pullbacks – a classic impulse wave. Following this, we observed a corrective abc pattern in black, suggesting the end of wave 3. Interestingly, although yesterday's ADP report was extremely bullish, gold only managed a mild breakout above the wave 3 high before pulling back this morning. Notably, the upward move followed a 3-wave abc structure in green, and price action is now showing overlapping waves with no clear directional momentum. 🧩 These signs suggest a high probability that: 🔹 Wave 5 is forming as an Ending Diagonal – a 5-wave structure with a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern. 🔹 This is typically seen at the end of a bullish cycle and often precedes a sharp reversal. Although it's too early to confirm, we should patiently observe the upcoming price action. If the ending diagonal completes, it may present a strong sell opportunity. 🎯 Target for wave 5: around 3395, provided all 5 sub-waves within the diagonal complete. ⚠️ If price breaks below 3324, we must consider that the full 5-wave structure is already done, and a new abc corrective phase may have begun. 🔍 Momentum Analysis Daily (D1): Momentum is about to turn bearish from overbought territory → suggests a weakening uptrend. H4: Momentum is turning upward → likely a mild rally or sideways movement today before H4 reaches overbought again. 📌 Trading Plan Given the current wave behavior and overlapping structure, it is best to remain patient and wait for confirmation before taking a strong position. If the Ending Diagonal structure is confirmed, it could signal a major reversal. SELL Zone: 3392 – 3395 Stop Loss: 3403 Take Profits: • TP1: 3368 • TP2: 3340 • TP3: 3324
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold is Ready For The Next Bullish Run- Taking a Long Trade HereAfter a series of bearish structures on 4Hour time frame, which is actually a bullish retracement on higher time frame, Gold has now broke the bearish structure with series of bullish candles which turned the trend from bearish to bullish trend. After the bullish break of structure, Gold retrace into a fair value price level, formed a swing low plus a bullish price action which further confirmed the bullishness of Gold, which is were I took an entry for a buy long trade. My target for this trade is for Gold to reach the price level of $3,436 which is a 5.36RR return. I will be monitoring price and manage my trade accordingly as price move in my direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Elijahenoch7
Gold bulls and bears compete for non-agricultural dataTechnical aspects: Currently, gold is in a typical ascending triangle structure, reflecting that the market bullish trend has not been broken but faces strong resistance. On the daily chart, gold as a whole maintains a range of $3250 to $3400, with obvious horizontal support and resistance bands formed at both ends of the range. The Bollinger Bands are converging as a whole, indicating that volatility is shrinking, indicating that the large-scale direction selection is approaching. The green column of the MACD indicator has narrowed slightly, and the short-term momentum is still bearish but there are signs of weakening. The RSI indicator runs around 49, maintaining a neutral and bearish state, and there is no obvious deviation in the short term, suggesting that there is still the possibility of subsequent shocks and consolidation.
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold
1
XAUUSD Market Maker Playbook – Learn How the Game Is Rigged🎓 XAUUSD Market Maker Playbook – Learn How the Game Is Rigged Traders—if you think this market is some pure, fair supply/demand mechanism, you’re getting played. Market makers run sophisticated pump and dump cycles designed to trap you. Today, I’m going to break down exactly how they do it, so you can start trading like a sniper, not a sheep. 🔍 Understanding the 3 Manipulation Zones 🟢 GREEN ZONE: Accumulation Range (3286–3300) Purpose:
 Market makers quietly build positions. They create an illusion of neutrality—small candles, tight ranges. Signs:
 Repeated tests of the same level. Volume stays steady (not exploding). Wicks in both directions (so nobody knows who’s in control). 🟡 YELLOW ZONE: The Pump Phase (3300–3330) Purpose:
 Trigger breakout traders. Induce FOMO buying. Clear out short stops above the range. Signs:
 Quick impulsive candles with LOW RELATIVE VOLUME. Price blows through resistance but struggles to hold. Social media and news start calling “Bull Run.” 🔴 RED ZONE: Distribution & Dump (3330–3350) Purpose:
 Offload large positions into retail buying. Leave traders trapped at the highs. Signs:
 Spikes of huge volume as price stalls. Rejection candles (long upper wicks). Big delta shifts negative (sellers hitting bids hard). ⚔️ How the Market Maker Sequence Works Here’s how the trap gets set: 1️⃣ Accumulate in Green Zone Build inventory while convincing everyone “nothing is happening.” 2️⃣ Pump into Yellow Zone Push price up just enough to trigger momentum traders. Keep volume deceptively low—so it looks sustainable. 3️⃣ Sell in the Red Zone Dump big positions into the buying frenzy. Flip the tape bearish—fast. Watch as the herd gets stopped out or bag-held. 🎯 Tomorrow’s Possible Plays ✅ Scenario 1 – Classic Pump & Dump Phase 1: Grind in 3286–3300. Phase 2: Spike to 3335. Phase 3: Dump back to 3260. ✅ Scenario 2 – Fake Breakdown Reversal Phase 1: Slam price to 3250, triggering panic selling. Phase 2: Accumulate aggressively. Phase 3: Rip price back to 3320, trapping shorts. ✅ Scenario 3 – Slow Grind Liquidation Phase 1: Drift up in low volume toward 3330. Phase 2: Distribute over several hours. Phase 3: Liquidate longs into NY close. 📚 How YOU Can Spot This Manipulation Here’s your checklist—save this: ✅ Volume vs. Price Analysis Big price moves WITHOUT proportionate volume = FAKEOUT. Big volume at tops/bottoms = Institutional distribution or accumulation. ✅ Delta Confirmation Positive delta = buyers aggressive. Negative delta = sellers slamming bids. Watch for divergence (price up but delta down = hidden selling). ✅ Candlestick Clues Rejection wicks. Engulfing candles at key zones. Multiple failures to break past a level. ✅ Timing London open and NY open are prime manipulation hours. Thin liquidity in Asia can exaggerate moves. 💡 Pro Tip: “The crowd chases price. The professionals track volume, delta, and timing.” — Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits 🚀 Stay sharp. Think like a market maker. Trade like a predator. #XAUUSD #MarketMakerEducation #ForexTrading #PriceAction #LearnT
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Gold's rally has not reversed yet? The consolidation pattern hasTechnicals: Short-term risks remain skewed to the downside as the momentum of the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) weakens. The RSI hit a new low below the neutral 50 mark. If short pressure intensifies in the next few trading days, gold prices may retest the upper track of the previous falling channel at 3215, followed by the rising support line from October 2024 at 3150. If it falls below this level, the decline may accelerate towards the psychological level of 3000, or even lower to 2970. On the upside, if a strong catalyst pushes gold to rebound above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (currently 3320-3350), the next resistance level may appear in the 3400-3435 range. A decisive close above this boundary may pave the way for gold prices to move towards 3500, or test resistance near 3530, and then may target the 3600 level. Overall, despite the weakening technical indicators, gold has not completely lost its bullish reversal potential. As long as the price remains within the sideways structure above 3150, the downward pressure may still give rise to a "buy on dips" strategy.
TVC:GOLD
by AIan_Gold
1
Bullish bounce off major support?XAU/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 3,265.39 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 3,121.15 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 3,344.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
Weekly range to be continued, gold short and long this weekLast week, gold opened high at 3280.9 at the beginning of the week and then fell back. The weekly low reached 3245.8, and then the market was strongly pulled up by the support of this round of trend line and fundamentals. On Thursday morning, the weekly high touched 3366, and then the market fell strongly under the strong influence of non-agricultural data. On Friday, the market consolidated in the range due to the holiday, and the weekly line finally closed at 3337.2. The weekly line closed with a medium-sized positive line with equal upper and lower shadows. After ending in this pattern, today's market continued to move in the range. In terms of points, the stop loss was still at 3346 after the short position at 3342 last Friday. Today, it first rose to 3342 and the short stop loss was still 3346. The target below is 3330 and 3322. If it falls below, the support of 3310 and 3300-3292 will be targeted.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
1