CFDGOLD trade ideas
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
Well, we actually did want higher but there was no break above, instead, we got the break below and then the move commenced overnight, most of which we missed. We did capture part of it on the tap and bounce, then another trade now on a RIP from lower Excalibur which was hit. Not bad, not amazing, just another day on the markets.
Now, we have support at the 3310-6 level with resistance at 3330 which could be the target over the sessions to come. As long as support holds, we'll hold as well.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Breaks Trendline – Deeper Correction Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) has just broken below its short-term ascending trendline formed since mid-May. The candle closed around $3,333, confirming a bearish engulfing pattern and highlighting growing selling pressure after multiple failed attempts to reclaim the $3,383–$3,399 resistance zone (Fibonacci 0.5–0.618).
Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $3,315 (tested twice before)
- Main Resistance: $3,383–$3,399 (Fibonacci zone)
- Major Resistance: $3,435–$3,451 (May high zone)
If $3,315 fails to hold, gold could retest $3,285–$3,270, with deeper downside toward $3,222.
Technical Overview:
- The ascending trendline is now broken.
- Bearish engulfing candlestick confirms momentum shift.
- Price rejected sharply from Fibonacci 0.618 – $3,399.
Trade Setups to Consider:
Sell Opportunity: Short near $3,360–$3,383; stop loss above $3,400; targets at $3,315 and $3,270.
Speculative Buy: Watch for reversal patterns near $3,315; stop loss below $3,300; short-term target $3,350–$3,365.
Caution: This week brings major U.S. economic events (GDP, PCE, Fed speeches). Trade reactively, manage risk tightly, and avoid overleveraging.
Gold at Key Level Before NFP – Big Move Loading ?📉 Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains in a strong bullish structure, supported by multiple macroeconomic and political drivers:
ADP Employment Report Missed Expectations: With a shocking -33K reading, market sentiment shifted firmly against the US Dollar, pushing gold higher.
Fed’s Easing Outlook: Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in Q3, weakening real yields and supporting demand for gold.
Trump’s “Super Bill” Momentum: Political cohesion among Republicans has re-ignited fiscal stimulus expectations, fuelling concerns over long-term US debt sustainability—another tailwind for gold as a safe haven.
🧠 Smart Money Technical Framework (H1)
Price has moved into a Premium FVG Zone, showing signs of potential exhaustion after forming a clear CHoCH and bullish BOS. The current zone (3,375 – 3,376) aligns with a mid-risk sell region, where price may experience short-term rejection before revisiting demand zones.
Market structure suggests liquidity sweep potential towards the downside before any continuation of the larger bullish trend.
📊 Trading Strategy – Smart Money Zones & Key Levels
🔵 BUY SCALP: 3,334 – 3,333
🔴 SL: 3,329
✅ TP: 3,340 → 3,344 → 3,350 → 3,360
🔵 BUY ZONE LOW RISK: 3,317 – 3,316
🔴 SL: 3,311
✅ TP: 3,320 → 3,325 → 3,330 → 3,336 → 3,345 → 3,350 → 3,360
🔴 SELL SCALP ZONE: 3,375 – 3,376
🔴 SL: 3,380
✔️ TP: 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360 → 3,355 → 3,350
🔴 SELL ZONE HIGH PROBABILITY: 3,388 – 3,390
🔴 SL: 3,394
✔️ TP: 3,384 → 3,380 → 3,376 → 3,370 → 3,366 → 3,360
📌 Notes:
Be cautious ahead of NFP data and the upcoming US bank holiday—expect liquidity traps and sudden volatility.
This setup is ideal for intraweek scalping and liquidity-based reversals.
All trades follow Smart Money Concepts logic: premium vs. discount zones, CHoCH + BOS confirmations, and institutional order flow anticipation.
XAUUSD Today's strategyGold prices are consolidating around $3,350 today, with the current resistance level above seen at $3,370 and the support level below at $3,340.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle pattern, with the bottom gradually lifting. If the price can effectively break through the $3,370 resistance, it is expected to subsequently launch an assault on the $3,400 integer mark. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI currently stands at 58, which has not yet entered the severely overbought range, suggesting there is still room for upward movement; the MACD indicator also shows that bullish momentum is slowly recovering, waiting for a breakout signal to confirm the direction.
On the operational front, considering going long around $3,340 could be a viable option. It is particularly important to note that the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released today, which may have a significant impact on the short-term trend of gold. It is advisable to liquidate positions and wait on the sidelines before the data release to avoid potential risks from sharp fluctuations.
XAUUSD
buy@3335-3345
tp:3360-3370
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Gold Sell- look for sell
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for sell even if price goes one more up
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XAUUSD - SELL After a reasonable big run up like this they will take profits
Looks like it's roiling over watching Super Trend and break of
Buffer Zone with Bearish Continuation Candle can easily Shoot back up if Wicks but should be plenty of room to make money on this one.
Hardest part is being patient
Selling seems to capitulate everyone wants to capture as much profit as possible or should I say Algo's
NY also current session so they have plenty of push and Greedy as can be !
USD has turned Strong for now also
Don't forget to protect profits when you deem fit should it run into profit trading Forex - Gold is very unpredictable their game is to take yr money deliberately - do the opposite just to snag yr hard earned cash.
Lets See : )
Short gold, it will fall again when encountering resistanceIn the short term, gold retreated to around 3274 and then rebounded again, and it is only one step away from 3300. Will gold regain its bullish trend again?
I think it is difficult for gold to break through in the short term. Although gold retreated to around 3274 and successfully built a double bottom structure with the second low point and the low point of 3245, it only increased the rebound space; it is not enough for gold to regain its bullish trend. Since gold fell and broke through, the confidence of bulls has been hit hard. The previous support at the technical level has formed a strong resistance area after the top and bottom conversion, and to a certain extent helped the short force. In the short term, gold faces resistance in the 3310-3320 area. Before gold breaks through this area, the short energy still has the upper hand.
Therefore, shorting gold is still the first choice for short-term trading.
It is appropriate to consider shorting gold in batches in the 3300-3320 area, and look at the target: 3385-3375-3365
Gold Loses Its Luster as Risk Appetite Takes ControlAlthough inflation in the US continues to rise, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data for May showed that the core PCE increased to 2.7%, exceeding forecasts, but the market still does not expect the Fed to cut interest rates soon.
The USD slightly decreased, bond yields remained stable, but gold prices failed to take advantage of these supporting factors. According to experts, market sentiment is leaning towards risky assets, as US stocks hit a peak and US-China trade relations have positive developments. This is the main reason for the decline in safe-haven demand for gold.
Currently, the gold market is in a tug-of-war state, waiting for stronger signals from inflation, geopolitical tensions or global economic instability to determine the next trend. If there are no major fluctuations in the near future, gold may continue to adjust in the short term, especially when the technical resistance zone has not been broken.
Personally, I see that the money flow is temporarily stopping in gold and gradually shifting to growth assets. And if there is no strong enough “push”, gold will continue to move in this short-term downtrend for a while longer.
Xauusd market The chart you've shared is a 1-hour timeframe for Gold (CFDs on Gold, US$ / OZ) and seems to illustrate a potential bullish reversal scenario. Here's a detailed breakdown:
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🔍 Chart Overview
Current Price: 3,280.920
Recent Movement: Price has been in a downtrend but recently formed a potential bottom with some sideways consolidation.
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🟦 Highlighted Zones
1. Support Zone (Bottom - ~3,240)
Marked with a U.S. flag emoji (likely news-related support).
Price previously bounced from this zone — a key area of demand.
2. Mid-Level Supply/Resistance Zone (~3,300–3,320)
Price may test this zone if bullish momentum continues.
A key intraday resistance to watch.
3. Upper Supply Zone (~3,360–3,400)
If price breaks the mid-level zone, this is the next potential target.
Final bullish target area.
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📈 Projected Paths (Dashed Lines)
Primary Scenario:
Bounce from current level → retest mid-resistance (~3,320) → possible breakout → target upper zone (~3,400).
Alternative Scenario:
Slight retracement back to the lower support (~3,260–3,245) before rallying to higher zones.
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🔄 Interpretation
Bullish Bias: The chart is structured for a bullish reversal.
Confirmation Needed: A break and hold above the mid-resistance (~3,320) would validate the bullish path.
Risk Zone: If price falls below the bottom support (~3,240), the bullish setup may be invalidated.
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Would you like a trading plan or entry/exit suggestion based on this setup?
Gold Market Analysis Current Price: 3341.58
Market Behavior:
The price is ranging sideways, trading in a tight consolidation zone just below the resistance zone (around 3344).
Key Resistance Levels:
3344 → Immediate resistance
3348 – 3352 → Next minor supply zone
3357 – 3360 → Strong resistance ahead (if breakout occurs)
Key Support Levels:
3332 – 3330 → Short-term demand
3324 – 3320 → Stronger support zone
📌 Trader Insight:
"Gold is in a consolidation phase between 3330 and 3344. Wait for a confirmed breakout above 3344 for bullish momentum toward 3357+. If rejected again, expect a retest of support near 3332 or deeper."
✅ Trade Setup (Example):
Buy Scenario (Breakout):
Entry: Above 3345
Target: 3357
Stop Loss: Below 3338
Sell Scenario (Rejection):
Entry: Near 3344 resistance, if rejected
Target: 3332 / 3324
Stop Loss: Above 3348
BREAK THE HIGHI can see gold getting ready to move upside again. If it's in our favour, check the reaction above the price of 3425. it may give other continuation thee above price 3425 to move more upside
OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
As always, market wins! trade with care. be a part of the market
Embracing Uncertainty
In trading, the illusion of certainty is often our biggest enemy.
Even the cleanest setups—like a MTR (Major Trend Reversal)—can fail.
Mark Douglas said it best:
“Anything can happen.”
This simple truth is what keeps professional traders humble and disciplined.
Respect the market, manage your risk, and never assume you know what comes next.
Stay sharp.
#MJTrading
#GoldTrading #XAUUSD #TradingPsychology #AnythingCanHappen #MarkDouglas #ForexMindset #TradingQuotes #PriceAction #RiskManagement #MindOverMarkets #ChartOfTheDay #MJTrading
Mozafari Nejad ### Multi-Timeframe Analysis: 15min + 30min + 2# XAU/USD | Gold Market Outlook by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
### Multi-Timeframe Analysis: 15min + 30min + 2h | July 2–3, 2025
---
## 🔍 Technical Overview:
| Timeframe | Structure | Efficiency | Context |
|-----------|-----------|------------|---------|
| 15min | Bullish ✅ | Efficient ✅ | Reverse H&S complete – price entering neckline zone |
| 30min | Bullish ✅ | Inefficient ❌ | Clean BOS – ready for potential continuation |
| 2H | Bullish ✅ | Inefficient ❌ | HL confirmed – clear bullish delivery range ahead |
---
## 🧠 Key Insights:
- **Left Shoulder - Head - Right Shoulder** clearly visible and now validated with neckline break
- Price is reacting from **last TLQ + ILQ zones** with MSU
- Strong **liquidity gap** above 3,380–3,405 likely to be targeted
- **Highs around 3,420–3,440** may act as liquidity magnet if clean break happens
- **BOS and CHoCH** confirmed across all LTFs — strong bullish intent
- Structure remains **bullish** as long as 3,312–3,320 HL holds
---
## 🎯 Price Zones to Watch:
| Zone | Action |
|--------------|----------------|
| 3,335–3,340 | OB Flip Support / Demand (Retest Possible) |
| 3,368–3,375 | Reaction Zone / Short-Term Take Profit |
| 3,404–3,420 | Major Liquidity Above / SH Grab |
| 3,428–3,440+ | Stop-Hunt Potential for Final Exit |
---
## 📌 Trade Scenarios:
### 🟢 Long Setup
- **Entry:** 3,340–3,348 (OB retest or continuation)
- **SL:** below 3,328
- **TP1:** 3,375
- **TP2:** 3,400
- **TP3:** 3,420+
### 🔴 Caution for Short
Only valid if price shows **CHoCH + strong rejection** from above 3,420–3,440.
Otherwise, trend continuation is dominant.
---
## 🧭 Summary:
> Gold continues its bullish structure in all LTFs.
> Reverse H&S has broken neckline cleanly.
> Momentum + inefficiency zones above = clear drive to liquidity.
> Patience is key – reentry on OB retest = high R/R setup.
---
🖋️ Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
*Smart Money | Liquidity Zones | Order Blocks | MSU/MSD Framework*
Exclusive trading strategy, short gold!From the current gold structure, we can see that gold still needs to continue to retest the 3320-3310, or even the 3305-3295 area; so in the short term, we can still seize the opportunity to consider shorting gold in batches in the 3340-3360 area.
Trading signal:
@3340-3360 Sell, TP:3325-3315-3305
A reliable trader must have an explanation for everything and respond to everything. I have always been committed to the market and insist on writing the most useful core strategies for traders. The transaction details can be seen in the channel!
X1: GOLD/XAUUSD Long Trades Risking 1% to make 1.8%X1:
#XAUUSD/#GOLD Long Trades
GOLD/XAUUSD Long for day trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
Risking 1% to make 1.8%
Note: Manage your risk yourself, its risky trade, see how much your can risk yourself on this trade.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice