GOLD WATCH buy floor at 3200-3214 and the sell zone which will retest the broken ascending trendline is 3330-3345 zone
CFDGOLD trade ideas
Gold’s Last Push🧠 MACRO OUTLOOK FOR GOLD
1. 📉 Central Bank Rate Sentiment (Macro Risk Bias: Neutral to Bullish Gold)
Central Bank Meeting Probable Move Cut Probability Hold Probability
Fed Jul 30 Hold 4.7% 95.3% ✅
RBA Jul 8 Cut 94% ❗
BoE Aug 7 Cut 80.8% ❗
ECB Jul 24 Hold 9.3% 90.7% ✅
BoC Jul 30 Hold 26.5% 73.5% ✅
RBNZ Jul 9 Hold 16.9% 83.1% ✅
✅ Most majors (Fed, ECB, BoC, RBNZ) are expected to hold — gold-friendly
❗RBA and BoE rate cuts ahead — mildly bullish for gold
2. 💸 FED CUT PROJECTION (Through End of 2025)
Jul: 93.3% chance to HOLD
Sep: 73.1% chance of CUT
Oct: 55.9% chance of CUT
Dec: 69.9% chance of CUT
🟡 Progressive rate cuts expected by year-end, favoring a longer-term bullish trend on gold
⚙️ VOLATILITY & IMPLIED RANGE (XAUUSD)
Implied Volatility: 14.09%
Range Estimate Value
1SD High 3355.38
2SD High 3385.78
3SD High 3414.87 🔺
1SD Low 3267.56
2SD Low 3237.73
3SD Low 3209.36
✳️ Key Resistance: 3385–3415
🛑 Key Support: 3237–3209
Current price at 3336.6 sits mid-range, slightly bullish
📰 FUNDAMENTAL NEWS REACTION (NFP & GOLD)
Date NFP Actual vs Forecast Gold Reaction
Jul 3 144k vs 126k forecast (Hot) 🔥 -200 ticks
Jun 6 139k vs 126k (Hot) 🔥 +36, -104 ticks
May 2 177k vs 138k (Hot) 🔥 -105 ticks
🔴 Gold reacted bearishly to strong NFP — Jobs > Forecast = USD strength → Gold weakness
🔍 MARKET FLOWS (MOC)
Index Buy Sell Net
NASDAQ 345M -86M +258M ✅
MAG7 113M -41M +72M ✅
S&P 500 1055M -1041M +13M
DOW 30 106M -168M -62M ❌
🟢 Risk-on sentiment visible from large NASDAQ & MAG7 inflows
🟡 Caution on S&P
🔴 DOW weak
This supports a mild bearish pressure on gold short-term due to risk appetite.
✅ CONCLUSION (For Gold Traders)
🔻Short-Term Outlook (This Week):
Bearish bias due to recent strong NFPs + net equity inflows
Rate cuts are delayed (Fed holding in July)
Expect gold to retest 1SD/2SD lows around 3267–3237 if USD strength persists
🔺Mid-Term Outlook (Q3-Q4 2025):
Dovish tilt from major banks (RBA, BoE, Fed by Sep-Dec) supports long-term gold upside
Key upside potential into 3385–3415 area if dollar weakens and yields drop
Monday Outlook on Gold (XAU/USD)My outlook for Monday is bearish at the start of the session, with price likely to drop toward the 3310–3300 area. This level aligns with a key discount zone inside the Gann box, and also overlaps with a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), making it a strong area of interest for potential long setups.
From that zone, I expect a bullish reaction, leading to a move back up to the trendline.
If the momentum continues, I anticipate a break of the trendline, followed by a retest, and then the beginning of a bullish trend.
I’ll be looking for confirmations around 3300 to position for the move higher.
Let’s see how Monday opens.
Long on monday morning 3363 then short on Monday Gold still in range bound except both option 1st long on monday 3363 then sell from. this area to 3277 zone then continue till liquidation 3233
Inside My Gold Mind: Weekend Trade Log📌 Market Context / Bias
The majority of bullish price action on VELOCITY:GOLD occurred early in the week — specifically between Monday and Tuesday. From midweek through Friday, the market entered a period of consolidation, showing signs of compression.
Interestingly, despite positive economic data that favoured the USD, GOLD remained steady and resilient. This suggests underlying bullish pressure and potential accumulation.
My current bias is bullish going into the new week — with expectations of a price expansion to the upside.
🔍 Higher Timeframe Analysis
Weekly Candle: Shows early bullish expansion followed by consolidation — classic sign of absorption or reaccumulation.
Draw on Liquidity: Equal highs remain above, acting as a magnet for price.
FVGs: Price traded into a daily FVG earlier in the week and closed above it.
Order Block: Price respected a previous Bullish Order Block during Thursday’s retracement, reinforcing possible support.
🧩 Lower Timeframe Confluence
1H–4H: Price is forming relatively equal highs above the current range — potential liquidity targets.
Intraday Structure: No major shift to bearish order flow was confirmed; compression suggests a possible continuation move once expansion begins.
🧠 Fundamental Insight
Despite hawkish or strong USD fundamentals, GOLD held its ground. This divergence often precedes a strong move — likely driven by risk sentiment, upcoming Fed commentary, or global macro drivers.
🧠 Trade Plan Preview
Stay tuned for my daily updates where I’ll share:
My bias for the day
Market structure breakdown
Intraday trade plan (entry, targets, and session model)
⚠️ Reminder:
Trade with due diligence. This is not financial advice. Always align entries with your personal model and preferred session.
Thanks for your support!
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This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
All trading involves risk. You are solely responsible for your own decisions, so always conduct proper research and due diligence before taking any trades.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trade responsibly.
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GOLD BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,341.95
Target Level: 3,259.01
Stop Loss: 3,396.95
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAUUSD - Retesting 3400 before DeclineThe chart shows a potential buy setup for gold (XAUUSD) with the following key points:
Price Action: Gold is trading at 3,341.465, above the suggested "Buy Above 3350" level, indicating a bullish bias.
Support/Resistance: The rejection area at 3309-3319 held as support, and price has moved higher, confirming buyer interest.
Take Profit Levels: TP1 (3355), TP2 (3360), and TP3 (3365) provide clear upside targets.
RSI Confirmation: The RSI (14) at 54.21 shows moderate bullish momentum without being overbought.
Volume & Close: The slight increase in price (+0.09%) with supportive volume suggests accumulation.
Trade Idea: Enter long above 3350 with stops below 3309, targeting TP1-TP3. The rejection zone and RSI support further upside.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We are not responsible for your loss because we are not SEBI registered and this analysis based on technical aspects and only for educational practice. Do your own research.
Gold/USD Bullish Breakout Toward Target Zone Gold/USD Bullish Breakout Analysis 🚀🟢
The chart illustrates a strong bullish breakout from a consolidation zone, signaling upward momentum:
🔍 Key Technical Observations:
Support Zone: The price respected the support area around 3,325 – 3,330 USD, forming a solid base for reversal.
Bullish Structure: Series of higher lows and higher highs indicate a bullish trend formation.
Breakout Confirmation: Price broke above short-term resistance with a strong bullish candle, indicating buying pressure.
Trendline Support: The ascending trendline has held well, confirming trend continuation.
Target Point 🎯: Projected target is near 3,365 USD, which aligns with a previous resistance and Fibonacci confluence zone.
✅ Conclusion:
The breakout above resistance, supported by a bullish structure and momentum, suggests further upside potential toward the 3,365 USD target zone. As long as price holds above the breakout level, bullish bias remains valid.
🛑 Watch for invalidation if price falls back
GOLD 15M BULL CONTINUATIONBull still in control to at list 3390
I will hold this trade till tomorrow and if we are not there by the time of NFP will close it manual
Will update here
Gold Move is it going down again ? gold is doing range now we have strong bearish candle and move it respect we can see down side but now wait.
Live Signal from ALIP FX Smart Scalper | XAUUSDThe ALIP FX Smart Scalper indicator just issued a SELL signal on XAUUSD (Gold) on the 15-minute timeframe.
The trend filter turned red, EMA structure aligned to the downside, and the signal confirmed by strong momentum.
📉 Scenario: Short bias while the trend remains bearish.
🕒 Timeframe: M15
📌 Reminder: Wait for candle close and confirmation before entry.
Analysis and strategy of the latest gold trend on July 3:
1. Analysis of gold news
The current market focus is as follows:
Trump tax reform is advancing & trade agreement is approaching
The tax reform was passed by the Senate, and the deadline for trade negotiations on July 9 is approaching, which has triggered a rise in risk aversion.
The Fed's attitude is subtle
Although Powell did not explicitly support the July rate cut, he emphasized that more data is needed for support, and did not rule out the possibility. This "dovish" attitude supports the medium- and long-term bullish expectations for gold.
The upcoming big non-agricultural data (July 3 US trading session)
This means that the market will quickly reflect the gap between expectations and reality in the next 24 hours, and volatility may increase.
2. Gold technical analysis
Summary of recent trends:
Gold rose strongly on Tuesday, reaching a high of $3,358;
Stagflation signals appeared on Wednesday, and the risk of chasing long positions at high levels is extremely high;
The current market bullish sentiment is high, but the technical side has entered the overbought zone, and the bullish momentum is weakening.
Key resistance/support levels:
Resistance zone: 3357-3367 USD: Near Tuesday's high, it is an important defensive position for short sellers;
Support zone: 3325-3315 USD: If it falls below, short sellers may further exert their strength, with the target directly pointing to 3300 USD.
Today's operation strategy suggestion:
Main idea: short selling on rebound
Currently in a high-level oscillation stage, it is recommended to short sell at high levels and buy at low levels, and be cautious in chasing up.
Short order strategy:
Entry position: short near $3365
Stop loss: above $3375
Target: 3326 / 3315 / 3300
Long order strategy (conservative):
If it pulls back to around $3315 and stabilizes, you can short long with a small position
Stop loss: below $3305
Target: 3326 / 3340
III. Comprehensive judgment and suggestions
Gold is currently in a news-intensive & technically overbought stage, and volatility will increase;
There is a high probability that the intraday Asian and European sessions will fluctuate weakly, waiting for the US non-agricultural guidance direction;
If the ADP and Challenger layoffs data are strong, gold will face obvious downward pressure in the short term;
Don't chase the highs, follow the trend, and risk control is the key.
📌Warm Tips:
Maintain trading discipline and do not trade with emotion;
Before the non-agricultural data, appropriately reduce positions or stop profits;
Pay more attention to the linkage changes between US bond yields and the US dollar index, which have a great impact on gold.
Gold Squeeze Incoming – Triangle Break Looming on XAUUSDGold is coiling tightly within a symmetrical triangle on the 5-minute chart, pressing against key support around 3,352. Price action is compressing between a rising trendline and descending resistance — indicating an imminent breakout.
⸻
📍 Key Levels:
• Support: 3,352-3,350 zone – defending so far.
• Resistance: 3,360-3,366 area – repeated rejection above.
⸻
🔎 What I’m Watching:
✅ Break below the rising trendline could trigger a quick drop toward 3,340 and possibly 3,333.
✅ Break above the descending trendline may fuel a rally back toward 3,366-3,370.
🕒 Timing matters: volume is building as price nears the apex — be ready for a spike in volatility.
⸻
📌 Plan:
• Wait for a clear 5M candle close outside the triangle for confirmation.
• Set alerts at 3,349 and 3,362 to catch the breakout early.
• Manage risk tightly – false breakouts are common in squeeze patterns.
⸻
💬 How are you trading this setup? Drop your thoughts below ⬇️ and let’s discuss!
BUY. gold against the dollar using "Heikin Ashi" Analysis
The chart for the price of gold against the dollar using "Heikin Ashi" candles on a 4-hour timeframe. Here are the details:
Price Analysis:
1. Ascending Triangle:
- The price is fluctuating within an ascending triangle, indicating the possibility of a continued uptrend.
- The upper level of the triangle acts as resistance at around $3,350.
2. Support Line:
- The ascending support line (green line) supports the price movement, enhancing the chances of the uptrend continuing.
3. Resistance Level:
- The level indicated by the red line represents the resistance that, if broken, could lead to a significant price increase.
Opening a Buy Position:
1. Confirmation of Breakout:
- Wait for confirmation of a breakout above the resistance level ($3,350) before starting to open a buy position.
- Closing a candle above the resistance level can be used as a confirmation signal.
2. Risk Management:
- Set a stop-loss below the support line of the triangle to minimize risks in case of a pullback.
3. Price Target Advice:
- Entry Price: $3,350.00
- First Target: $3,375.00
- Second Target: $3,400.00
- Third Target: $3,430.00
- 🚨 Stop Loss: $3,329.00
4. Ongoing Technical Analysis:
- Periodically review the analysis to ensure the trend continues and to identify potential changes.
Gold Sees Volatile Swings – Pullback Risk Remains📊 Market Highlights:
Gold surged to $3,351 earlier today after weaker-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data, which boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, profit-taking quickly pushed prices down to $3,334 before recovering to $3,342.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,351
• Nearest Support: $3,334
• EMA: Price is above EMA 09 → uptrend still intact.
• Candles / Volume / Momentum: H1 candle shows a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure near the recent high. Bullish momentum is slowing, and volume has started to normalize.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may face a short-term pullback if it fails to break above $3,351 and the USD strengthens during the US session.
________________________________________
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,345 – $3,350
🎯 TP: $3,334
❌ SL: $3,353
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,332 – $3,334
🎯 TP: $3,350
❌ SL: $3,323
AFTER - XAU/USD - Jul 1,2025 DoneCongratulations guys 200 pips profits
✅ XAU/USD Trade Recap – Jul 1,2025
Bias: Short (Sell Position)
🔹 Entry Price: Around $3,348
🔻 Stop-Loss: $3,371
🎯 Take-Profit Target: $3,327 (✅ Hit – 200 pips)
📉 Result: First target partially reached – trade closed with +200 pips in profit.
Price rejected the resistance area and moved downward, allowing for a clean exit before reaching TP1 and TP2. Conservative profit-taking secured gains without risking reversal.
💡 Summary:
Smart and disciplined execution. The market respected the setup, and you locked in profits safely at 200 pips before any retracement.
Gold Pulls Back Slightly After Peaking at $3,357📊 Market Overview:
Gold rallied to $3,357 yesterday following weak US manufacturing PMI, sparking expectations of an upcoming Fed rate cut. This morning, prices are pulling back to around $3,340 as traders await the FOMC meeting minutes for further guidance.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Near resistance: $3,357
• Key resistance: $3,370
• Near support: $3,330
• Major support: $3,318
• EMA: Price is still above the 09 EMA, but starting to slope downward → short-term weakness emerging.
• Candlestick & momentum: Doji candle with a long upper wick on H4 chart around $3,357 → showing fading bullish momentum. RSI dropping out of overbought zone confirms potential short-term pullback
📌 Outlook:
Gold is currently in a mild downward correction, and may continue to decline toward $3,330 – $3,318 if the FOMC minutes do not suggest strong dovish intent.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,350 – $3,354
🎯 TP: $3,330
❌ SL: $3,359
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,328 – $3,332
🎯 TP: $3,350
❌ SL: $3,318
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy – July 1✅Yesterday, gold staged a strong “V-shaped reversal,” surging violently from the intraday low of $3247 to a high of $3309. The daily chart closed with a large bullish candlestick featuring a long lower shadow, initially confirming the validity of short-term bottom support and signaling a strong bullish rebound.
✅Fundamental Overview:
The U.S. Dollar Index recorded its sixth consecutive monthly decline, further falling today to 96.87—the longest losing streak since 2017. This reflects growing market expectations for future Fed rate cuts. A weakening dollar has strengthened non-U.S. currencies and reduced the holding cost of gold, providing upward momentum for gold prices.
✅Technical Analysis:
Gold is currently in a technical rebound phase. After reclaiming the key $3300 level yesterday, the short-term trend has returned to a bullish stance. A bullish consolidation structure is now confirmed. However, on the daily chart, prices are still capped below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages (around $3330–3340), while the RSI remains in a weak adjustment phase below the midline, suggesting medium-term direction remains uncertain. In the short term, bulls dominate. The 4-hour chart shows consecutive bullish candles breaking above the middle Bollinger Band, with a golden cross forming near the $3285 area. The 1-hour chart shows Bollinger Bands expanding upward, with prices riding the upper band and moving averages in bullish alignment.
🔴Key Resistance Levels: 3328 – 3335 – 3348
🟢Key Support Levels: 3305 – 3282 – 3271
✅Trading Strategy for Asia–Europe Session:
🔹 Long Positions:
🔰If gold remains firmly above $3300, consider entering long positions on pullbacks to the $3305–3308 zone. Set a stop-loss below $3300 and aim for a target range of $3328–3335.
🔰If the price breaks above the $3328 resistance with volume confirmation, consider adding to long positions near $3330, with upside targets at $3345–3350.
🔹 Short Positions:
🔰If gold rallies toward $3328 but fails to break through, and upward momentum weakens, consider light short positions. Set a stop-loss above $3335, with downside targets at $3310–3305.
🔰If the price unexpectedly breaks below the $3280 support, possibly triggering algorithmic selling, the correction may extend further toward the $3250–3260 range.
✅Currently, gold continues to show a moderately bullish trend, and the European session is expected to fluctuate within the core range of $3300–3335. Strategically, it's recommended to prioritize buying on dips, with shorts considered only on failed rallies. If upcoming U.S. data strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, gold could break above the $3350 threshold. Conversely, if the data is strong or geopolitical risks ease, be cautious of a potential pullback, with key defense support at $3280.
XAUUSD short from red zoneWill give gold a short a shot. It is pretty much a technical trade only. I will look to take a 200 pips out of it.
Goodluck
Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
Bullish breakout for the Gold?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a breakout of this level could lead the price from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,343.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,296.15
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 3,390.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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