Report - June 26, 20251. Ceasefire, Oil, and Market Sentiment:
Markets are stabilizing after a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A ceasefire, brokered by President Trump, appears to be holding, encouraging risk-on sentiment across global asset classes. Brent crude has fallen back to $68.17 per barrel, erasing earlier war-driven spikes. Traders swiftly sold oil after Iran's symbolic missile attack on a US base in Qatar, interpreting it as a move to de-escalate rather than escalate. This rapid reaction, fueled by open-source intelligence and satellite imagery showing the base was empty, helped unwind the geopolitical premium in crude.
Energy consultancy Rystad noted Iran even increased crude exports amid the conflict due to lack of refining capacity. With OPEC+ boosting supply and US shale output high, the market anticipates an oversupplied scenario by year-end. Strategists like Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects) expect crude to test $50–60, while RBC’s Helima Croft said the White House is unlikely to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, given sufficient alternative supply buffers.
2. Equities and Sector Rotation:
US equity indices were mixed: the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% to 22,237.74, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipped slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 1.1% to 16.77, signaling easing investor fear. Year-to-date, tech leads with XLK up 31.95%, followed by communications (XLC +23.46%) and discretionary (XLY +18.69%). Defensive sectors lagged: utilities (XLU +19.13%), consumer staples (XLP +9.15%), and real estate (XLRE -1.27%).
Recent sector performance reflects a recalibration away from energy and interest-rate sensitive names. XLE has tumbled 4.65% over the past five days, mirroring declining oil, while XLRE’s underperformance worsened, highlighting investor caution in yield-sensitive areas. The growth/value debate continues: large-cap growth (IWF) was the only factor posting a gain (+0.29%), while small-cap growth (IJT) fell 1.2%, underscoring preference for quality and scale.
3. Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields:
Rates edged higher. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.32%. Germany’s 10Y bund climbed 3 bps to 2.57%, and UK gilts ticked up 1 bp to 4.46%, driven by expectations of higher issuance to fund increased NATO defense spending.
US Treasuries across the curve remain elevated: 1Y at 3.99%, 2Y at 3.77%, and 30Y at 4.81%. Despite global easing signals, sovereign borrowing costs stay elevated, reflecting inflation stickiness and geopolitical risk premia. TIPs and agency MBS have outperformed on a 1Y basis, with TIP +4.7% and GNMA +5.76%.
4. NATO Commitment and Fiscal Risk:
At The Hague summit, NATO allies pledged to meet Trump's demand for 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035, a seismic shift from the previous 2% benchmark. While reaffirming Article 5 commitments, Trump emphasized US support hinges on European “burden sharing,” pressuring Spain for opting out. The summit declaration promises annual roadmaps and a 2029 review—coinciding with Trump’s potential exit from office.
Germany’s Chancellor Merz called the commitment a moment of “putting our money where our mouth is,” but bond markets reacted with concern. The FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, and the DAX fell 0.6%, reflecting fiscal anxieties tied to expanded military budgets.
5. Policy Front – Trump’s Tax Push & Debt Outlook:
The White House claims its proposed tax bill will lower debt via growth and tariff revenue. CEA estimates show debt-to-GDP dropping to 94% by 2034 with $8.5–11.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Yet the CBO projects the bill would add $2.4 trillion to deficits—and $2.8 trillion when factoring in higher rates.
Trump’s pressure campaign on Senate Republicans includes urging round-the-clock negotiations. However, concerns linger among fiscal hawks like Sen. Ron Johnson, who warned of “an acute debt crisis.”
6. Credit Markets and Insurance Breakdown Risk:
Credit spreads are holding stable, but US liability insurance is flashing red. Marsh data shows US casualty insurance rates have risen for 23 straight quarters. Executives at Everest and Aspen warn of a “breakdown” in coverage availability due to runaway litigation costs and “forever chemicals” claims. Everest’s reserves for US casualty risks now top $1.7 billion.
Insurers are lobbying for tort reform, and rate hikes of 20–25% in excess liability are becoming the norm. This insurance squeeze poses a serious inflationary threat to businesses, especially in logistics, construction, and hospitality.
7. Trade Disruption – FedEx Feels the Pinch:
FedEx shares dropped nearly 6% after warning of sharp deterioration in China–US freight, driven by the end of the “de minimis” $800 tariff exemption used by platforms like Temu and Shein. This lane, their most profitable intercontinental route, now faces structural weakness. While Q4 net income rose 13% to $1.65B, guidance for EPS of $3.40–4.00 (below expectations) reflects uncertainty ahead.
8. M&A Spotlight – Brighthouse Bidding Heats Up:
TPG and Aquarian Holdings are the final bidders for Brighthouse Financial, a $3.5B life insurer. Despite interest from Apollo, Carlyle, and Blackstone, many walked due to legacy annuity liabilities and high capital charges. The strategic appeal remains strong: control over policyholder premiums enhances credit origination capabilities for private capital platforms. An exclusive negotiation could emerge in the coming week.
9. Political Heat – Warren Targets Private Equity:
Senator Elizabeth Warren is probing PE firms (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, Bain, Thoma Bravo) for lobbying efforts related to the “carried interest” loophole and private credit tax breaks embedded in Trump’s tax bill. The senator demands disclosures by July 2, while Trump pushes for bill signing by July 4.
The American Investment Council responded that raising taxes on private capital would “kill jobs” and hurt innovation. The legislation, approved narrowly in the House, slashes taxes and expands debt—a key flashpoint heading into summer recess.
10. Currency, Commodities, and Global Trends:
Brent crude trades at $67.95 and WTI at $65.18. Gold holds at $3,335, up 45% YTD, though recent profit-taking has slowed its rally. Silver (+26.2% YTD) and copper (+12.5%) also reflect bullish industrial demand.
In FX, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3705; EUR/USD is at 1.1681 (+0.02%). USD/JPY slid to 144.57 (-0.66%). On a 1Y basis, GBP and EUR are both up over 8%, while the yen is down nearly 10.5%, continuing its depreciation due to BOJ’s dovish stance.
---
Equities:
Current Positioning: Equities are delicately balanced. The S&P 500 is up +3.6% YTD, Nasdaq +3.4%, but Dow only +1.0%, reflecting the rotation into growth, defensives, and high-cap tech. However, small caps are under heavy pressure (IJR/SPY -1.05% daily, down YTD), and value is again underperforming.
Tactical Implications:
Overweight: Large-Cap Growth (e.g., XLK, IWF) – Mega-cap tech remains the secular winner (+31.95% YTD in XLK). Given moderating rates and weak cyclicals, expect further leadership unless yields spike.
Underweight: Small-Caps (IWM), Real Estate (XLRE), and Energy (XLE) – These are vulnerable to tightening credit, low breadth, and oil retracements. XLRE is -1.27% YTD and XLE dropped -4.65% in the past week alone.
Neutral: Financials (XLF) – The sector is at a crossroads. While yields support net interest margins, the liability insurance shock and credit pricing discipline weigh on capital-intensive names.
Actionable View: Stay concentrated in quality tech and cash-flow-rich defensives. Consider rotating out of overextended discretionary and look for short-term mean reversion trades in oversold industrials only on technicals.
Fixed Income:
Market: The UST 10Y yield is at 4.32%, up 2bps on the day. Notably, the 2Y/10Y curve is flattening again (+55bps spread), but with upward pressure on the long end driven by fiscal overhang (NATO rearmament, tax cuts).
Strategic View:
Short Duration Preferred – Laddered Treasuries and 1–3Y paper outperforming (e.g., SHY +0.65% YTD). Long duration remains risky despite falling inflation, given massive expected issuance.
TIPS as Inflation Hedge – TIPs up +4.7% YTD continue to provide inflation-linked protection. Elevated defense and healthcare spending bolster this theme.
Credit Call: High-Grade Corporate (LQD) – Valuation remains stretched, but spread stability gives buffer. Prefer LQD over HYG or CWB, where spreads are at risk due to funding costs and insurance withdrawal risk.
Action: Maintain a core laddered Treasury base, with modest high-grade credit. Fade the long end on rallies; use TLT as a tactical short if 10Y breaches 4.4–4.5%.
Commodities:
Key Developments:
Brent crude fell sharply (-6.1%) post-ceasefire, now at $67.95. Markets no longer price geopolitical premium.
Iran’s production rising, US SPR untapped, and China’s buying shifting.
Gold stabilizing at $3,335 after peaking on war fears; silver remains stronger at $36.34 (+26.2% YTD).
Outlook:
Oil: Short-Term Bearish to Neutral – Expect continued selling on rallies unless supply chain disruptions emerge. Range: $62–70/bbl.
Gold: Wait for Re-Entry – Momentum slowing but structural inflation hedging still intact. Look for re-entry near $3,200. Position cautiously if dollar strengthens.
Ags: Avoid – Corn and wheat continue to slide. Corn -7.5% MTD and -10.3% 3M; soybeans -11.7% YTD. No catalysts to reverse.
Action: Tactical shorts in oil remain viable unless Iran–Strait of Hormuz risk flares again. Hedge tail risks with gold but reduce exposure if USD rallies.
Currencies:
DXY weakening slowly, but USD/JPY still at 144.5 (-9.42% 1Y), EUR/USD firm at 1.1681.
Sterling outperforming: GBP/USD +8.2% 1Y.
Implications:
Short USD/JPY Holds – BOJ still dovish, yen oversold, risk-on flows support reversal. High conviction macro long on JPY.
Watch GBP/USD – Strong rally, nearing overbought territory. Use strength to rotate to EUR if ECB surprises.
EMFX Mixed – Avoid high beta EM (ZAR, TRY) due to USD and rates. Selective value in BRL, INR if USD pulls back further.
Action: Maintain partial USD hedge via EUR and JPY. EMFX traders should stay risk-off short term; low carry + volatile backdrop makes it unattractive.
Credit & Insurance Markets:
Everest ($1.7bn reserves) and Aspen warning of “coverage breakdown” in US casualty insurance. Litigation exposure (PFAS, data privacy, social cases) is a systemic risk.
FedEx’s collapse in China–US freight (-6% equity) is a red flag on consumption + supply chain health.
Expect more insurers to restrict exposure to high-litigation US states or raise rates >25%.
Positioning:
Be cautious on mid-cap financials, reinsurers, and commercial real estate debt with liability linkage.
Corporate credit: Avoid HY and convertibles. LQD remains the safe zone.
CFDGOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD - Prop firm or your own account? - Trading Psychology"$100K Funded? Or $1K account you own?? Welcome to the Inside Battle of Every Trader"
You want capital, freedom and win big.
But the question is: do you do it with your own money, or someone else’s?
You’ve got the $100K funded dream on one side. Big leverage, strict rules, payout drama.
And on the other side? Your own $1K account. Zero limits, zero support, and a whole lot of emotional damage.
This is a breakdown of what really happens behind both paths — the adrenaline, the self-sabotage, the mind games, and the payouts that sometimes never come.
The Prop Firm Path: Pass, Survive, Then Pray
Phase 1: You trade with hunger.
You’ve got the goal in sight, and every move is calculated. You’re alert, focused, mechanical. The structure helps. The rules feel like a challenge. Everything feels possible.
Phase 2: You trade with fear.
Now you’re tiptoeing. The target’s smaller, but the pressure is suffocating. Hesitation.Overthink. You play defense — and that’s when you lose. You stop executing your edge and start trading to avoid failure.
Funded: The real test begins.
You go live, you trade well, you hit payout… and suddenly the firm has a problem. A new rule is “suddenly” enforced. A clause is reinterpreted. A delay happens. You’re told to wait. Or worse — your account is shut with no warning.
That’s the part no one prepares you for: the waiting, the silence, the mental snap.
Passing isn’t the end. It’s barely the middle.
✅ So, Should You Go Prop? Here's What You Need to Know
Yes — if you’re ready to treat this like a hostile contract.
If you’re trading a prop account, you are trading their rules, their terms, their timing. You are not a partner — you are a performer. And they are very comfortable pulling the plug.
If you do it:
• Be colder than the system.
• Read every rule twice.
• Trade Phase 2 like a surgeon — no ego, no rush.
• And never treat a payout like it's guaranteed — treat it like a fight you have to win more than once.
You don’t just pass. You survive.
And if you’re not ready to survive, stay out.
🚨 Do not forget — It’s Simulated Capital. And That’s the Game.
Let’s not pretend it’s hidden:
You’re NOT TRADING REAL MONEY. You’re executing on a simulated account that mirrors real conditions — nothing more.
When you get paid, it’s not because you “grew” capital. It’s because you performed better than the masses who failed their challenges and fed the payout pool.
This isn’t shady. It’s the model — and it works because most traders lose.
So don’t delude yourself into thinking you’re managing funds.
You’re monetizing discipline inside a challenge-based system.
And if you know how to work that system? You get paid.
If you don’t? You become someone else’s payout.
🔓 Trading Your Own Money: Real Freedom or Emotional Damage?
With your own capital, there’s no one watching — and no one helping.
You set the rules. You decide how aggressive, how cautious, how chaotic.
But the second you click “Buy,” your psychology comes for you like a debt collector.
Because real trading isn’t what’s on the screen — it’s what’s happening between your ears.
You lose your money, you lose your confidence.
You win big, and suddenly you think you’ve figured out the market — until the market slaps you for it.
There’s no one to blame, and that makes it ten times harder.
But here’s the part no one can take away from you: every lesson is yours.
Every win is clean. Every loss hits deep. And if you make it — you really made it.
💡 How to Make Self-Funded Work for You
✅ Start with small capital — but also invest in your trading education.
Join a group that teaches you how to trade, not signal groups that just give you orders when to buy or sell, without explaining why.
✅ Join a real trading community.
Surround yourself with people who post actual breakdowns — who teach, not flex.
Avoid ego chats. Avoid circus chats. Find people who show the why, not just the entry.
(If you’re reading this, you already found the right space.)
✅ Focus on fixing mistakes — not faking wins.
Nobody cares how many pips you caught if you blew 5 trades getting there. Get real about your risk management and lot size.
✅ Learn to stop after a win.
Don’t feed your dopamine. Protect your equity. Walk away while you’re still in control.
✅ Respect your losses. Don’t chase them.
Red days don’t destroy traders. Revenge trading does. Stop. Reset. Come back sharper.
✅ If you’re not paying yourself yet, don’t panic.
Some seasons are for building, not cashing out. Don’t force results just to feel good — let the system earn before it pays.
🔄 The Hybrid Advantage: Rent the rules. Own the skill.
Some traders don’t pick a side.
They use prop firms like a hired weapon — fast, effective, disposable and
Personal accounts like a vault — protected, scalable, sacred.
They switch between them based on market conditions, mental load, and long-term goals.
You don’t need to be loyal to a style just be loyal to your results.
🧠 Final Word:
Trading becomes real, sustainable, and successful only when your mind is at peace with the path you chose.
If you wake up anxious about your account — if you feel pressure before you even open the chart — that’s not discipline, that’s misalignment.
This doesn’t mean trading should feel easy. But it should feel right.
You should wake up curious to read price, not terrified to take a trade.
Whether you trade $100K or $1K, the real account is always in your head.
You should feel like this work belongs to you — not like you’re trying to survive someone else’s idea of success.
Whether you trade with a prop firm or your own account, or both, the goal is the same:
Mental clarity. Emotional control. Strategic confidence. You’ll know you’re on the right path the moment the stress fades — and the obsession becomes patience, structure and joy with success.
If this lesson helped you today and brought you more clarity:
Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more published ideas.
XAUUSD eyes potential bearish batOn the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Currently, we can pay attention to the upper resistance near 3382.5. After it reaches that level, we can pay attention to the potential bearish bat pattern. At the same time, this position is in the previous supply area.
[XAUUSD] GOLD – Bullish Setup in Play🟡 *Key Context*
- Geopolitical calm (Trump ceasefire remarks) lowered risk aversion, pushing Gold down — but key support is holding.
- Fed uncertainty continues, yet technicals point to a possible reversal.
📉 *Price Structure*
- Price dropped into a falling wedge, testing 3285–3295 (H4 demand zone).
- RSI bullish divergence + harmonic ABCD pattern seen on 30m.
📌 *Trade Setup – Long Bias*
🔹Entry: 3285–3295 zone (watch for bullish candle confirmation)
🔹Stop Loss: Below 3280 (structure invalidation)
🔹Target 1: 3320–3330
🔹Target 2: 3390 (longer-term move)
⚠️ Volume confirmation is key — wait for breakout strength. Avoid entries during news events. Risk must be managed tightly.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TradingSignal #TeconLab #BuyTheDip
XAUUSD 4H Chart – Trendline Break and Retest in Play"Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4H timeframe has broken below the ascending trendline and is currently in the process of retesting the previous support, now turned resistance. If the retest holds, further downside is expected towards the 3123 level, as marked on the chart. Ichimoku Cloud also shows a bearish outlook, supporting the potential drop. Traders should watch price action closely around the retest zone for confirmation."
This is not financial advice .
GOLD ANALYSIS: A Bullish Breakout coming XAU-USD🔍 Key Technical Levels Decoded
🛡️ FORTRESS SUPPORT ZONE: $3,245 - $3,295
🛡️ Psychological level at: $3,250
1. 🎯 TARGET ZONES:
Immediate Target: $3,360 (4H FVG - Fair Value Gap)
Primary Target: $3,320 - 3,340
2. 🎭 The Liquidity Grab
The recent dip was a masterclass in market mechanics:
Weak longs were flushed out at $3,293
mean Smart money accumulated at discount prices
_______________________________
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT 🚨 DISCLAIMER ⚠️ DYOR
Gold Peaked, Deep Analysis: MACD & RSI, Targets: $3,131 & $2,904Gold (XAUUSD) already peaked. The 22 Apr session was a clear top signal. A very strong one at that. The chart is showing a lower (red arrows) and overall distribution channel. Trading volume continues to drop. Bearish volume is predominant.
Gold produced a strong rally, it lasted 159 days. Total growth amounts to +39% from bottom to top, starting November 2024, end April 2025.
It's been 64 days since the all-time high. No new highs, no bullish momentum. Geopolitical factors that would push Gold to new all-time highs, a war, did show up recently, a surprise event and yet Gold's price failed to move higher. This is a warning signal.
The RSI is weak now. Gold is trading very high, a very strong price but with a risk RSI. This is another warning signal, a strong one. Bullish would be the contrary, low price with a strong RSI. A weak RSI at this point can be interpreted as the bullish force being exhausted.
The daily MACD is pretty bad. Trending fully down with no possibility of anything bullish. Here is the chart.
This is a friendly reminder. Switch to Crypto.
You've been warned.
Namaste.
Gold is coiling for a breakout... All eyes on the next move!📉 Gold is currently moving within a minor descending channel.
In yesterday’s analysis, I pointed out the potential for a drop. Now, after a period of range-bound movement, I expect a breakout from this channel and a return to the main trend.
🎯 The first target on a reversal would be the top of the minor channel.
Keep a close eye on price action here — this zone could be key for the next move
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has no chance to rise
Gold did not break through the upper pressure on Friday. Gold fell directly after opening on Friday. The bears broke through the previous 3295 support line, and the lowest reached 3255. It closed near 3274. The daily line also closed in the form of a big Yin line. The downward trend is obvious, and all the previous supports will also turn into pressure. The short-term moving average system crosses downward to accumulate energy for the bears, and the Bollinger Bands are also expected to open downward. Since the closing did not break through the upper 3300 suppression level, we will continue to rebound and short next week. After all, the technical side is still short, and only by following the trend can we keep up with our rhythm. We also pay attention to international news on the weekend. Combined with the news, I will analyze the specific strategy ideas before the opening of Monday. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope Yulia can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate!
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3301, and the focus is on the important suppression of 3314-16. In terms of operation, the rebound continues to be short and follow the trend to fall. The short-term support below is around 3250-3255. The overall high-altitude participation is maintained in this range. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the trading session, so please pay attention to it in time.
Gold operation strategy:
Short at the rebound of 3295-3301, short at the rebound of 3314-16, stop loss at 3326, target at 3255-3260, and continue to hold if it breaks;
GOLD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 3,314.13 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3,322.84 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XAUUSD GOLD📈 GOLD (XAU/USD)
📊 Timeframes:
⏱️ 30-Min & 1-Hour
🟢 Long Trade Plan
🔍 Analysis Highlights:
✨ Bullish Divergence spotted
🚀 Breakout Trade
🎯 Trade Details:
🛑 SL: Marked on chart 🔴
✅ TP1: Mentioned on chart 🥇
🏁 TP2: Mentioned on chart 🥈
📌 Chart levels clearly labeled
📬 For any queries regarding chart: comment in message section
💡 Trade smart, manage risk! 📉📈
#Gold #XAUUSD #BreakoutTrade #LongSetup #BullishDivergence #TradingView #TradePlan
GOLD remains dominated by a slight downward momentumGOLD remains dominated by a slight downward momentum
From our previous analysis, gold reached 3295 :)
Gold remains dominated by a slight downward momentum, considering that the conflict in the Middle East is under control. Neither Iran nor Israel has broken the ceasefire so far. This is the first day.
Gold is releasing some of the fear and panic accumulated due to the fear of further escalation.
However, we all witnessed that Gold fell at a time when the conflict became bigger.
Remember that someone else knows the news every time in advance and this is called manipulation and not a normal market development. For many people, it may seem strange, but it is what it is. We have already seen how Gold reacted irrationally and not as a safe haven asset and we have done this several times.
If Gold follows our fundamental and technical analysis, I think it has already reached a strong zone near 3337, and the chances of a resumption of the downtrend are increasing.
It can only rise above 3337 on new issues or if those who have already sold it can buy Gold again. However, we are talking about large speculative Hedge Funds and not for retail traders.
If all goes well, gold should fall as the chart shows.
Key target zones: 3285; 3250; 3210 and 3170
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
XAUUSD Breakdown: Daily Support Under Fire – Bearish MomentumGold (XAUUSD) is pressing deep into key daily support around $3,275 after a sharp drop from the $3,450s. The daily trendline that’s defined this bullish run since January is now being tested for the first time in months, signaling a possible structural shift.
On the Daily chart, price has decisively broken below the mid-range of the recent consolidation box and is holding near trendline support.
On the 4H and 1H, bearish impulsive waves have formed clear lower highs and lower lows, with the current move stalling at the support zone around $3,265–$3,275.
The 23M chart shows tight consolidation just above this support area, suggesting a potential breakdown if sellers stay in control.
📌 If this level gives way, watch for price to move quickly toward the next major support near $3,150–$3,200. Bulls must reclaim $3,300+ and break above the descending trendline to flip the bias back to bullish.
🚨 Current Bias: Bearish below $3,300; watching for confirmation of breakdown or strong reversal signals.
XAUUSD h4 down Bearish Continuation Assumption? Maybe Not So Fast…
The chart assumes a clean, step-by-step drop to the “Support Area,” but:
There’s a liquidity gap just above current price (~3340–3360) where stop hunts could occur.
Smart money might push price higher briefly to fill orders before any major selloff.
Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap resistance, and could drop to the 1st support, acting as a pullback support.
Pivot: 3,339.40
1st Support: 3,297.74
1st Resistance: 3,389.16
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD H4 Structure – Eyes on 3225 POI for Possible ContinuationXAUUSD has been in a structured 4H pullback, and price is now approaching a key high-timeframe zone around 3225 — marked by prior CHoCH and unmitigated price action. This level has the potential to act as a base for bullish continuation, but I will only act based on lower timeframe structure.
The trap for most traders is entering too early just because price hits a level.
My approach is different — I wait for the market to tell me when it’s ready.
🔍 The Flow I Follow (As Always):
HTF Context – Price is pulling back within a broader bullish range
POI Identified – 3225 zone = key area of interest
Wait for LTF Shift – I’ll only consider a trade if:
- M15 shows CHoCH (shift in internal structure)
- Followed by a BOS (momentum confirmation)
Then, and only then, I enter. Otherwise, I let it go.
🧠 Why This Matters:
This structure-first mindset keeps me out of random trades.
I don’t predict — I align.
No M15 shift?
No BOS?
No trade.
📊 Chart Context:
The chart attached shows:
Previous CHoCH levels
Recent BOS confirming internal structure break
Cleanly marked POI around 3225
Still no valid LTF shift — so it’s a “watch, not trade” phase
📖 From the Book Philosophy:
“The chart is the mirror. It reflects your level of patience, not your level of prediction.”
This setup reflects exactly what I teach in my book The Chart Is The Mirror — how to stop reacting to candles and start respecting structure.
No signals.
No indicators.
Just clean alignment of levels and psychology.
It’s the right time to make a golden layout!Gold opened at 3328 today and started the downward mode. After the European session, it continued to fall and broke the new low. The negative opening data of the US session also continued the downward mode. So far, it has reached the lowest point of 3255 and rebounded, but the strength is not very strong. After all, the upper pressure is still very strong. In the short term, we pay attention to the previous low point of 3295-3300, and focus on the upper 3305-3311. Today, the short-term operation of gold is mainly short-selling on rebounds, and long-selling on callbacks is supplemented.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, with focus on the important suppression at 3305-3311. The rebound will continue to be mainly short and look to fall back. The lower short-term support is around 3255-3245. Relying on this range as a whole, the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple participation remains unchanged.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short-selling in batches near the rebound of gold near 3295-3310, with a target of 3380-3370.
2. When gold falls back to around 3345-3455, go long in batches, with the target at 3370-3380.
XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 30 June 4 July 2025Gold has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the H4 timeframe. While the pattern is not perfectly symmetrical, it is still valid and clearly recognizable. The price has broken below the neckline, confirming a potential shift in market structure to the downside.
Analysis Insight:
The 3340–3350 area, previously a support zone, is now acting as resistance following the neckline break. A pullback to this zone may present a high-probability short opportunity for swing traders, especially if price shows rejection or bearish structure in that zone.
Trade Type: Swing
Trade Setup – Sell on Retracement:
Bias: Bearish on confirmation of retracement rejection
Entry Zone: 3340 – 3350
Stop Loss: 3376 (above right shoulder/high)
Take Profit: 3320/3300/3285/3260
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2
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Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 30, 2025
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H1 chart, we observe a double zigzag correction WXY (in red). Currently, Wave Y appears to be developing as a green abc structure.
In this abc structure:
+ Wave a started with a leading diagonal (5-wave triangle).
+ Wave b followed as a typical abc correction (in black).
+ Wave c is currently unfolding as a clear 5-wave impulsive move, characterized by sharp and rapid price action.
The key issue now is to determine whether:
+ The price has completed wave 5 (black), or
+ It has only completed wave 3 (black) within the green wave c.
If the current movement is wave 3 (black), we should expect a wave 4 correction, followed by one more leg down to complete wave 5. In this scenario, wave 5 will be confirmed if the price breaks below 3255. There are two potential target zones for wave 5:
+ Zone 1: 3247
+ Zone 2: 3224
If wave 5 has already completed, the upward move to 3283 could be wave 1 of a new bullish trend. The next pullback would be wave 2, with an expected target between 3266 – 3261.
⚡️ Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold region, suggesting a high probability of a bullish trend in the upcoming week. This supports the view that wave c (green) of wave Y (red) is nearing completion.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning bullish, indicating the current upward movement may continue. This adds to the uncertainty about whether wave 3 or wave 5 has ended.
🧭 Trading Plan
📍 BUY ZONE 1
Entry: 3264 – 3261
SL: 3254
TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315
📍 BUY ZONE 2
Entry: 3247 – 3244
SL: 3237
TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315
⚠️ Important Note
This trading plan assumes either wave 3 or wave 5 has completed. Therefore, if in the early Asian session, the price does not touch the 3264 – 3261 zone but instead rises above 3283 without closing above 3297, and then drops back below 3283, we should avoid buying at 3264 – 3261.
Instead, we should wait for a potential entry at the 3247 – 3244 zone.
Still bearish!If the short-term bull lifeline 3330 is lost, the trend will be bearish again. The first pressure point above is 3350-the secondary top 3345, and then the 3332-35 area. If the price bulls regain 3335 again, then the operation should be carried out in the range of 3350-3310. It is not recommended to enter the market at the halfway point because it is easy to be washed out. If the daily K line closes below 3340, then 3332-35 is the best position at present. At present, the price is bearish below 40, and it can rely on 3332-31 to continue to be bearish. The target is 3310 and 3924.
Overall Trajectory BullishEntering long positions on XAU/USD based on a confirmed 3-Drive pattern on the H4 timeframe, aligning with confluence from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
As long as price stays and holds above 3200 I will remain bullish, if there is a close below 3200 then my analysis will be subject to change. Strong resistance will be at 3400 if it holds then the target is 3641 with a minor pullback at 3548.