Goes to 3400 and drop to 3000It can reach 3400 and then it will be rejected and come to 3000 dollars
So if you are thinking of investing this is not a good place. Let it come lower then enter at a better price
CFDGOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 30 June 4 July 2025Gold has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the H4 timeframe. While the pattern is not perfectly symmetrical, it is still valid and clearly recognizable. The price has broken below the neckline, confirming a potential shift in market structure to the downside.
Analysis Insight:
The 3340–3350 area, previously a support zone, is now acting as resistance following the neckline break. A pullback to this zone may present a high-probability short opportunity for swing traders, especially if price shows rejection or bearish structure in that zone.
Trade Type: Swing
Trade Setup – Sell on Retracement:
Bias: Bearish on confirmation of retracement rejection
Entry Zone: 3340 – 3350
Stop Loss: 3376 (above right shoulder/high)
Take Profit: 3320/3300/3285/3260
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2
Kindly follow, share, like, support and comment.
Catching the Perfect Rebound on XAUUSD!Hi traders! , Currently analyzing GOLD (XAUUSD) on the 1H timeframe.
Price has dropped aggressively but is now reacting strongly from a key support zone around 3,271.00, where buyers are stepping in. This area has previously shown significant bullish reactions.
I'm now buying from 3,271.00, expecting a bullish correction towards my target.
Take Profit: 3,377.00
Stop Loss: 3,165.00
RSI is in oversold, indicating potential exhaustion of sellers.
Price may have created a fake breakout below the trendline, trapping liquidity before bouncing back.
Currently managing the trade, watching how price develops around this key area.
Disclaimer : This is not financial advice. This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?XAU/USD is reacting off the support level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,298.57
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,258.87
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,393.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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It’s the right time to make a golden layout!Gold opened at 3328 today and started the downward mode. After the European session, it continued to fall and broke the new low. The negative opening data of the US session also continued the downward mode. So far, it has reached the lowest point of 3255 and rebounded, but the strength is not very strong. After all, the upper pressure is still very strong. In the short term, we pay attention to the previous low point of 3295-3300, and focus on the upper 3305-3311. Today, the short-term operation of gold is mainly short-selling on rebounds, and long-selling on callbacks is supplemented.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3300, with focus on the important suppression at 3305-3311. The rebound will continue to be mainly short and look to fall back. The lower short-term support is around 3255-3245. Relying on this range as a whole, the main tone of high-altitude and low-multiple participation remains unchanged.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Short-selling in batches near the rebound of gold near 3295-3310, with a target of 3380-3370.
2. When gold falls back to around 3345-3455, go long in batches, with the target at 3370-3380.
GOLD TOP DOWN ANALYSIS FOR MON. 30TH JUNE - FRI 4TH JULY, 2025Gold looks bearish heading into the new week. We had the formation of a weekly engulfing candle last week. I expect a pullback buy at market open from the current level to a take-profit level of 3316.
After that, I expect a sell-off from the 3318 level down to the 3000 level for the rest of the week.
I will be posting daily updates here, cheers!
Why the Best Strategies Don’t Last — A Quant TruthOver the years, I’ve built strong connections with traders on the institutional side of the market.
One of the most interesting individuals I met was a former trader at Lehman Brothers. After the collapse, he transitioned into an independent quant. I flew to Boston to meet him, and the conversations we had were eye-opening, the kind of insights retail traders rarely get exposed to.
We didn’t talk about indicators or candlestick patterns.
We talked about how fast and aggressive algorithmic trading really is.
He told me something that stuck:
" People think hedge funds build one algorithm, run it for years, and collect returns. That’s rarely the case. Most algos are extremely reactive. If something stops working, we don’t fix it — we delete it and move on. That’s how the process works."
This isn’t an exception — it’s standard practice.
What stood out most in our talks was how adaptable these algorithms are. If market conditions shift — even slightly — the logic adapts immediately. These systems aren’t built on beliefs or opinions.
They’re built to respond to liquidity, volatility, and opportunity — nothing more.
This level of responsiveness is something most retail traders never factor into their approach, but it’s core to how modern markets operate.
█ How Quant Funds Use Disposable Strategies — And What Retail Can Learn
One of the most misunderstood realities in modern trading is how top quantitative funds like Two Sigma, Citadel, and Renaissance Technologies deploy, monitor, and replace their strategies.
Unlike traditional investors who develop a strategy and stick with it for years, many quant funds take a performance-first, outcome-driven approach. They:
Build hundreds of strategies,
Deploy only the ones that currently work, and
Retire or deactivate them the moment performance drops below their internal thresholds.
This is a deliberate, statistical, and unemotional process — and it's something that most retail traders have never been taught to think about.
█ What This Means
Quantitative firms often run:
100s of models simultaneously,
Each targeting a specific edge (e.g. trend-following, mean reversion, intraday order flow),
With tight risk controls and performance monitoring.
When a model:
Falls below a minimum Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return),
Starts underperforming vs benchmark,
Experiences a breakdown in statistical significance…
…it is immediately deprecated (removed from deployment).
No ego. No "fixing it."
Just replace, rebuild, and redeploy.
█ It runs live… until it doesn’t.
If slippage increases → they pull it.
If volatility regime changes → they pull it.
If too many competitors discover it → they pull it.
If spreads tighten or liquidity dries → they pull it.
Then? They throw it away, rebuild something new — or revive an old one that fits current conditions again.
█ Why They Do It
⚪ Markets change constantly
What worked last month might not work this week — due to regime shifts, volatility changes, or macro catalysts. These firms accept impermanence as part of their process.
⚪ They don’t seek universal truths
They look for temporary edges and exploit them until the opportunity is gone.
⚪ Risk is tightly controlled
Algorithms are judged by hard data: drawdown, volatility, Sharpe ratio. The moment a strategy fails to meet these metrics, it’s shut off — just like any risk engine would do.
⚪ They don’t fix broken models — they replace them
Time spent “tweaking” is time lost. New strategies are always in the pipeline, ready to rotate in when older ones fade.
█ Research & Real-World Validation
"Modern quantitative funds must prioritize real-time adaptability and accept that any statistical edge has a short shelf life under competitive market pressures." Adaptive Trading Agents” (Li, 2023)
Donald MacKenzie’s fieldwork on HFT firms found that algos are treated like disposable tools, not long-term investments.
Studies on adaptive algorithmic trading (e.g., Li, 2023; Bertsimas & Lo, 1998) show that funds constantly evaluate, kill, and recycle strategies based on short-term profitability and regime changes.
A former Two Sigma quant publicly shared that they regularly deploy hundreds of small-scale models, and once one fails risk thresholds or decays in Sharpe ratio, it’s immediately deprecated.
Walk-forward optimization — a method used in quant strategy design — is literally built on the principle of testing a strategy in live markets and discarding it if its forward performance drops.
█ Why Retail Rarely Hears This
Retail traders are often taught to:
“Stick with a system”
“Backtest 10 years”
“Master one setup”
But in the real quant world:
There is no perfect system. There are only edges that work until they don’t. And the moment market structure shifts — new volatility, different volume profile, regime change — the strategy is gone, no questions asked.
█ What This Means for Retail Traders
⚪ Don’t idolize “one perfect system.”
What worked in April might not work in June. Treat your strategies as temporary contracts, not lifelong beliefs.
⚪ Build modular logic.
Create systems you can tweak or retire quickly. Test new regimes. Think in frameworks, not fixed ideas.
⚪ Learn from regime shifts.
Volatility, spread, volume profile, macro tone — track these like a quant desk would.
⚪ Use metrics like:
- Win streak breakdown
- Market regime tracker
- Edge decay time (how long your setups last)
█ Final Thought
The best traders — institutional or retail — understand that there’s no such thing as a permanent edge. What matters is:
Having a repeatable process to evaluate strategy performance,
Being willing to shut off or rotate out what’s no longer working,
And staying adaptable, data-driven, and unemotional.
If you start treating your strategies like tools — not identities — you’ll begin operating like a professional.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Still bearish！If the short-term bull lifeline 3330 is lost, the trend will be bearish again. The first pressure point above is 3350-the secondary top 3345, and then the 3332-35 area. If the price bulls regain 3335 again, then the operation should be carried out in the range of 3350-3310. It is not recommended to enter the market at the halfway point because it is easy to be washed out. If the daily K line closes below 3340, then 3332-35 is the best position at present. At present, the price is bearish below 40, and it can rely on 3332-31 to continue to be bearish. The target is 3310 and 3924.
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Although I did not take the trade, my last analysis lined up perfectly for the scalp Sell trade. Not being boastful, just showing my skill set. Big G gets a shout out. Happy Tuesday. Be well and trade the trend.
Overall Trajectory BullishEntering long positions on XAU/USD based on a confirmed 3-Drive pattern on the H4 timeframe, aligning with confluence from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
As long as price stays and holds above 3200 I will remain bullish, if there is a close below 3200 then my analysis will be subject to change. Strong resistance will be at 3400 if it holds then the target is 3641 with a minor pullback at 3548.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trading Plan for June 30, 2025
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H1 chart, we observe a double zigzag correction WXY (in red). Currently, Wave Y appears to be developing as a green abc structure.
In this abc structure:
+ Wave a started with a leading diagonal (5-wave triangle).
+ Wave b followed as a typical abc correction (in black).
+ Wave c is currently unfolding as a clear 5-wave impulsive move, characterized by sharp and rapid price action.
The key issue now is to determine whether:
+ The price has completed wave 5 (black), or
+ It has only completed wave 3 (black) within the green wave c.
If the current movement is wave 3 (black), we should expect a wave 4 correction, followed by one more leg down to complete wave 5. In this scenario, wave 5 will be confirmed if the price breaks below 3255. There are two potential target zones for wave 5:
+ Zone 1: 3247
+ Zone 2: 3224
If wave 5 has already completed, the upward move to 3283 could be wave 1 of a new bullish trend. The next pullback would be wave 2, with an expected target between 3266 – 3261.
⚡️ Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold region, suggesting a high probability of a bullish trend in the upcoming week. This supports the view that wave c (green) of wave Y (red) is nearing completion.
H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning bullish, indicating the current upward movement may continue. This adds to the uncertainty about whether wave 3 or wave 5 has ended.
🧭 Trading Plan
📍 BUY ZONE 1
Entry: 3264 – 3261
SL: 3254
TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315
📍 BUY ZONE 2
Entry: 3247 – 3244
SL: 3237
TP1: 3283 | TP2: 3297 | TP3: 3315
⚠️ Important Note
This trading plan assumes either wave 3 or wave 5 has completed. Therefore, if in the early Asian session, the price does not touch the 3264 – 3261 zone but instead rises above 3283 without closing above 3297, and then drops back below 3283, we should avoid buying at 3264 – 3261.
Instead, we should wait for a potential entry at the 3247 – 3244 zone.
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
Following on from the KOG report, we said there was a huge caveat to the idea, that being that we will tap into that red box resistance and then make the drop rather than just continuing upside. This move worked out well not only giving the RIP but also terminating at the red box and bias level which gave us the long trade upside to where we are now.
For now we have resistance at the 3395 level which still needs to break upside, while support is the 3370-75 level. Ideally, what we want to see over the Asian session is a break above the 3400 level, then a dip into the 3380-75 level before resuming the path we have anticipated in the report. For that reason, we won't change anything in our plans for now.
Please note, a break below 3370 is needed to change the structure.
Key Levels:
Red box defence 3375-80, needs to be broken
Red box defence 3350, needs to be broken
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3375✅, 3390✅, 3395✅ and above that 3410
Bearish on break of 3340 with targets below 3330, 3320, 3310, 3306 and below that 3298
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3375 for 3378✅, 3390✅, 3395✅, 3406, 3410 and 3419 in extension of the move
Break below 3365 for 3355✅, 3350✅, 3340, 3336, 3330 and 3323 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Will this growth spurt be newsless?Hello friends..
As we said in the previous analysis, we are still waiting for another upward leg. (Because the trend is bullish in the long term)
Now we are looking for buying deals in gold next week after the market opens. (Technically, it is in a good range for buying deals)
The lower area that has been identified can be a good range for buying.
You can keep the target for this deal at $3645 (which is good in terms of risk to reward).
.
I hope you have used this analysis well.
You can follow our page to see more analyses.
XAUUSD Update 29th JUNE 2025Last week, pullback has reached 62% fibonaci.
It have an opportunity to continue the correction in to 3205 support or more lower at 3190 level support.
So we need to becarefull on next week and we looking for a reversal / rejection signal from the market as a confirmation.
We need to give our attention to a fundamental data also. If there is a big news on war / geopolitical or global economic in July, we could be more convidence about gold price direction.
If 3155 lose...it would be more deep, but it would be unlikely.
Have a good luck !
P.S : If you agree, Boost it
Gold in Support and 3rd touch of trendlineLooking at the daily timeframe, I am still seeing strong signs of a bullish confirmations. Firstly that daily support zone has been rejecting the bears' efforts since the beginning of this month and now we have a 3rd touch of the support trendline.
As long as that daily support zone continues to hold, I remain bullish overall. Even if there still consolidation happening on much lower timeframes in the meantime. I will be ready to catch the bull run upon the right confirmations.
GOLD Made Double Top Reversal Pattern , Ready For Sell ?Here is My 15 Mins Chart On Gold and we have a very good reversal Pattern , double Top , if we have a 15 mins closure below neckline 3326.00 we can enter a sell trade and targeting at least 100 pips as scalping , we can enter direct if you are aggressive trader or if you not you can wait the price to retest neckline and then enter .
XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal?
Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction!
🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold
While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst.
📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move
Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios:
Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase):
If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold.
The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend.
Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x):
Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement.
The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png).
🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead!
Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan:
1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support):
Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume).
SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation).
TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce.
2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption):
Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation).
SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340).
TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
gold breakout and retest 1st retest failed after breakout and tried second retest. and it passed but hunted my stoploss.and then continued downward as planned
XAUUSD:Today's trading strategy
On Tuesday, the news that Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel dampened the risk aversion sentiment. Subsequently, the news that expectations of interest rate cuts had slowed down led to a further decline in gold prices. During the trading session, it once fell below the 3,300 mark. After the impact of the news weakened, it eventually rebounded to around 3,323, approaching the position where we first entered the market yesterday. Currently, there is no logic in the market. From a technical perspective, The resistance level above is at 3340-45, and the support level below is at 3305-10. We can conduct transactions around this range
Trading strategy:
SELL@3340-45
TP:3310-04
BUY@3305-10
TP:3335-40
More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗
Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
gold strong upwardGold will continue its strong upward trend, the corrections seem to have come to an end, the gold price is certain to reach above $3500, if the current price and the price of 3235 break down, you should not panic, the direction of the gold price movement is still towards the ceiling ( ATH ) CMCMARKETS:GOLD
Downtrending Gold is sitting at major support, retracement likelDowntrending Gold is sitting at major support, retracement likely.
Next week's market trend analysisShort-term technical analysis of gold next week:
After gold was horizontally consolidated below 3400, it had two relatively large retracements. The short-term downward channel, the upper edge of the channel is currently around 3340, which is also the turning point of the short-term long and short cycles that we need to pay attention to later.
Has the current big rhythm entered a weak position?
Daily level analysis: After reaching 3500, gold is still in a trend of high-level consolidation, and there is a periodic switch between long and short positions, and there is no extremely strong or weak rhythm. In this consolidation process, there are two relatively large retracements: the first from 3500 to 3200 space 300 points, the second from 3435 to 3120 space 315 points. In other words, in the current daily level cycle, the maximum decline is around 300 US dollars. Not exceeding this maximum retracement value, to a certain extent, it is still in the rhythm of high-level correction. According to the range of this space retracement, the limit of the daily retracement is around 3150, with an error of about 20 points. However, the daily range is large, so it is too early to talk about this threshold.
At present, the short-term pressure points of 0.618 and the top and bottom structures are all around 3300. Another point for everyone to pay attention to: in the market with a small cycle of negative decline, once there is a sideways trend. Don't take it as support! The price is consolidating horizontally, which only means that the current bulls are weak in pulling back and the change of weakness must be a strong pullback to break through the big negative. Similarly, the slow rise market is the same.
The first support below in the short term is around 3250. The strong support is at the integer level of 3200. Once this position is reached, it will become a repeated test position like 3400.
Gold Holds Above $3340 as Dollar Drops and Fed Uncertainty Rises GOLD OVERVIEW
Gold Holds Gains as Dollar Weakens and Fed Uncertainty Grows
Gold climbed above $3,340 per ounce on Thursday, supported by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar amid growing dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
Adding to market speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted he may announce a new Fed Chair as early as September or October, potentially reducing Jerome Powell’s influence before his term ends in June and boosting expectations for a more accommodative policy stance.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – XAU/USD
Gold shows bearish potential if the price can stabilize below the pivot level at 3,341.
However, while trading above 3,341, a short-term correction toward 3,364–3,365 is likely before any renewed selling pressure.
Today’s U.S. GDP release may add further volatility and direction to the market.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: 3,341
Resistance: 3,364 → 3,373
Support: 3,320 → 3,302
previous idea:
