GOLD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,339.37
Target Level: 3,313.04
Stop Loss: 3,356.82
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CFDGOLD trade ideas
GOLD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,380.73
Target Level: 3,335.74
Stop Loss: 3,410.56
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Next Week Aims for 3300 Break💎 Last week, gold opened gap-up on Monday 🔼 but then trended lower 🔽. However, the 3290-3300 support zone remained robust from Mon-Thu ⚡. It plunged to ~3255 on Fri before rebounding 🌱. Next week's open may surge to 3290-3300 🔥!
🚀 Sell@3260 - 3270
🚀 TP 3280 - 3290 -3300
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Is today Black Friday?On Thursday, gold prices rose to 3350 with support from 3333-30. When the key support of 3320 was broken, it indicated that the short-term rise turned into a fall. This morning, the rebound to 3320 confirmed the pressure of the top and bottom conversion, and then slowly fell all the way to break the integer mark of 3300 US dollars.
In 4 hours, it has fallen below the previous low of 3295, and will continue to fall. There are two support positions below, namely 3277 and 3263. Don’t expect a big rebound before going short in the negative market. If the rebound is large, it will not fall. This kind of negative decline is generally judged by the 15- and 30-minute patterns. When resistance appears in the big cycle, the market has actually fallen a lot.
Today, I think the pressure is mainly in the 3300 and 3310 areas. 3310 can be considered as the pressure of the top and bottom conversion. Pay attention to 3377 and 3363 below. If you consider more, you may be at a relatively extreme position of 3363. For the time being, the general direction is mainly short.
GOLD The US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.29%-4.37%
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 97.877, showing relative stability with minor fluctuations
Impact on Markets Today
The slight decline in the 10-year yield suggests modest easing of bond market pressure, possibly reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing fiscal concerns and expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year.
The DXY near 97.9 indicates a moderately strong dollar, though recent trends show some weakening due to fiscal worries and softer economic data.
Together, a stable-to-slightly weaker dollar and a modestly lower 10-year yield can support safe-haven assets like gold, though elevated yields still pose a headwind. But despite the dips of both the 10 year us government bond yield and the dollar index ,GOLD lost over 500pips from Asian session to Newyork session trading on cease fire deal between Israel and Iran by united states of America.
In brief: The US 10-year yield’s slight dip combined with a steady DXY reflects a market balancing inflation, fiscal concerns, and Fed policy outlook. This environment supports cautious risk-taking with safe-haven demand still relevant.
follow zone of buy and sell for educational purpose only.
#gold #dollar
XAUUSD: Trend changed to bearish. Significant downside potentialGold turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.253, MACD = 18.142, ADX = 16.679) as it crossed below both the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50. The two form a Bearish Cross. Technically a Channel Down has emerged, no different than those that emerged after rejections on the R1 Zone (like now). As long as the 4H MA50 acts as a Resistance and holds, we will be bearish, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 3,245).
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XAUMO REPORT: XAUUSD WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Period: Monday June 30 – Friday July 5
Focus: US Independence Day (July 4), NY Market Closure Impact
🟢1. Price Action Context
Last Week (ending June 28):
Weekly bearish engulfing closed near the lows (~3,250 area).
Series of failed rallies above 3,330.
Price compressed in a tight lower range—distribution, not accumulation.
Monday June 30 – Friday July 5:
Market begins in a low-confidence, low-volume environment.
Tuesday–Wednesday: traders will be positioning ahead of July 4 closure.
Thursday (July 4): NY market closed—no COMEX metals futures settlement.
Friday (July 5): NY market reopens—liquidity and volume surge back in.
🟡 2. Range, Support & Resistance
Composite Volume Profile:
VAH: ~3,410
POC: ~3,330 (where the heaviest volume has been transacted)
VAL: ~3,250 (final defense)
Support:
3,250: major structural shelf
3,200: next key liquidity target
Resistance:
3,330–3,350: loaded supply zone
3,390–3,420: overhead liquidity from prior weeks
Interpretation:
Price under POC, hugging VAL, is bearish.
Acceptance under 3,250 sets up a vacuum to 3,180–3,200.
🔵 3. Volume Footprint and Delta
Footprint Characteristics:
Strong negative delta (-21K) as price approached 3,250.
Buyers unable to lift offers at 3,300+.
Repeated ask dominance = supply persistence.
Institutional Read:
They’re selling into every bounce, and liquidity thinness around July 4 increases stop-hunt potential.
🟣 4. Trend and Wave Structure
Weekly trend: bearish
Daily trend: bearish with lower highs and lower lows
Wave count:
Wave 1: 3,500 ➡ 3,273
Wave 2: retrace ~3,330
Wave 3: active—projected target 3,180
🟤 5. Stop Hunt Zones
Above:
3,330–3,350: obvious short stops and breakout buy stops.
Below:
3,250: stop cluster from dip buyers and trapped longs.
Expected Behavior:
Institutions use Wednesday and low liquidity Thursday to spike stops before the real move on Friday.
Stop Hunt Scenario:
July 3–4: quick liquidity sweep above 3,330.
July 5 (Friday): NY reopen—supply steps in, drives price back down.
🟢 6. Market Closure & Liquidity Impact
NY Market Closure Schedule:
July 4 (Thursday):
NY COMEX metals closed for Independence Day.
Forex open but liquidity ~40% of normal.
Price can move erratically with minimal volume.
July 3 (Wednesday):
Early close in many US desks.
Position squaring—thin books.
July 5 (Friday):
Liquidity flood back in—true directional follow-through likely.
Implications:
Avoid heavy positioning during July 4 closure.
Expect false breakouts and “ghost candles”.
Major moves likely Friday July 5 during NY session.
🟠 7. Psychological Dynamics
Retail:
FOMO if price spikes above 3,330 on low liquidity.
Fear if price knifes under 3,250 without volume confirmation.
Institutions:
Use the holiday to:
Clear out stops.
Create liquidity pools.
Accumulate positions for Friday’s push.
🔴
8. Tangible Day-Trader Scenarios
🟢 Scenario A: Pre-Holiday Stop Hunt Trap
When: July 3–4
Price spikes over 3,330 on low volume.
Footprint shows negative delta quickly after.
Execution:
Sell limit ~3,340.
SL: 3,375.
TP: 3,200.
Note: Keep size reduced—thin conditions are volatile.
🟣 Scenario B: Post-Holiday Breakdown
When: Friday July 5
NY opens, volume returns.
Price fails to reclaim 3,250 after test.
Execution:
Sell stop 3,249.
SL: 3,310.
TP: 3,180.
Scale in as confirmation strengthens.
🟠 Scenario C: Holiday Range
When: July 4–early July 5 pre-NY
Price likely ranges 3,250–3,330.
Avoid entries unless volatility contraction ends with volume breakout.
🟡 9. Hypothetical Institutional Trade Plan
✅ Order Type: Sell Stop
✅ Entry: 3,249
✅ Stop Loss: 3,310
✅ Take Profit: 3,180
✅ Position Size: Max 0.5–1% account risk
✅ Trigger: NY session reopens Friday with volume confirmation
✅ Confidence: 85% (post-holiday breakdowns historically have high follow-through)
🟢 10. The Executive Recap
✅ Timeframe:June 30–July 5
✅ Trend:Weekly/Daily bearish
✅ Volume:Negative delta clusters
✅ Stop Hunts:
3,330–3,350 (trap)
3,250 (flush)
✅ Liquidity Event:July 4 closure reduces liquidity by ~60%
False moves likely
Major move probable Friday NY session
✅ Execution:
Low liquidity: reduced size
Confirmation: delta + volume
No chasing pre-closure
#GoldTrading #XAUUSD #ForexTrader #PriceActionTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #VolumeProfile #FootprintAnalysis #InstitutionalTrading #DayTrading #MarketAnalysis #ForexSignals #ComexGold #TradingStrategy #MarketPsychology #LiquidityTraps #StopHunt #NYMarketClosure #July4Trading #MetalsMarket #TrendAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #ForexEducation #CMEGroup #TradingMindset #RiskManagement
⚠️ Disclaimer : This is a purely educational scenario. You are the only one responsible for your risk.
Learn Best Change of Character CHoCH Model in Trading with SMC
Most of the SMC traders get Change of Character CHoCH WRONG!
In this article, I will share with you Change of Character models that have a low accuracy and better to be avoided.
I will teach you the best CHoCH model for Forex Gold trading and show you how to identify it easily.
Let's start with the basic theory first and discuss what Change of Character signifies.
Change of Character in Bearish Trend
In a downtrend, Change of Character CHoCH is an important event that signifies a violation of a bearish trend.
CHoCH is confirmed when the price breaks and closes above the level of the last lower high.
Above, is a text book Change of Character model in a bearish trend.
For the newbie traders, such a price action provides a strong signal to buy while it fact it is NOT .
One crucial thing is missing in this model to confirm a bullish reversal.
According to basic trend analysis rules, we say that the market trend is bullish if the price forms a bullish impulse, retraces and sets a Higher Low HH , forms a new bullish impulse with a new Higher High HH.
Only then, we can say that the market is trading in up trend.
CHoCH model above confirms a bearish trend violation BUT it does not confirm a trend change.
Such a model may easily signify a deeper correction.
Look what happened with GBPNZD.
Though the price formed a confirmed bearish CHoCH, it was a false signal and just an extended correction.
That's a perfect bullish reversal model.
It combines CHoCH and conditions for a bullish trend.
Such a union is extremely accurate in predicting up movements.
Examine a price action on USDJPY.
Not only the price formed a confirmed CHoCH but also we see a start of a new bullish trend.
Change of Character in Bullish Trend
In an uptrend, Change of Character CHoCH is a significant event that signifies a violation of a bullish trend.
CHoCH is confirmed when the price breaks and closes below the level of the last higher low.
Above is a typical model of a bearish CHoCH.
For many traders, that is the signal to open short.
However, it is not that accurate and one important component is missing there.
According to basic price action rules, the market trend is bearish
if the price forms at least 2 bearish impulses with Lower Lows LL and a pullback between them with a Lower High LH.
Only when these 3 conditions are met, a bearish trend is confirmed .
Perfect bearish Change of Character model should include both CHoCH and a bearish trend price action. That will confirm a violation of a bullish trend and start of a new bearish trend.
EURCAD has a very strong potential to continue falling:
not only we see a valid bearish Change of Character but also
a start of a new bearish trend based on a price action.
Next time when you identify CHoCH on forex market, make sure that you check the preceding price action. It will help you to more accurate assess reversal probabilities and make a wiser trading decision.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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Gold Trading Strategy June 27✏️The price reaction at 3348 forms a sustainable bearish structure. 3296 is an important zone when broken, it will continue to fall deeply without any recovery on Friday.
Today the downtrend will encounter less resistance than the uptrend. Therefore, it is not difficult to touch the support zones of 3278 and 3255.
Any recovery in the price in the European session is considered a good opportunity for a Sell signal towards the target of 3278 and 3255.
As analyzed, the SELL zone today is noted at many resistance zones and consider the price reaction for the SELL signals.
📈 Key Levels
Break out: 3296
Support: 3278-3255
Resistance: 3300-3312-3325-3336-3348-3363
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY 3278-3276 SL 3272
SELL 3325-3327 SL 3330
Next week's gold trend analysis strategy:
1. News interpretation: Fed policy and market sentiment dominate the direction
✦ Review of key factors:
The situation in the Middle East has eased
The safe-haven demand for gold has declined, which is bearish for gold prices.
Fed Focus: PCE Price Index
If PCE data rises → Strengthen interest rate hike expectations → Gold prices are under pressure
If personal spending is weak → Interest rate hike expectations slow down → Favorable gold price rebound
Investors' wait-and-see sentiment heats up
→ There is no panic selling in the market, and it tends to fluctuate downward rather than plummet.
2. Technical analysis: Bearish dominance, pay attention to key support areas
Daily structure:
The bearish trend is clear, and the moving average system turns downward;
The price is running near the lower track of the Bollinger band, and there is a suspicion of short-term oversold;
The 3280-3295 area constitutes a pressure zone, which has not been broken after multiple tests.
Key points at the 4-hour level:
A step-down channel is clearly formed;
Support levels gradually move downward, a typical bearish pattern;
Lower support: 3270 → 3263 → 3250-3245
Upper pressure: 3280 → 3300 → 3310
III. Gold trend forecast for next week
📉 Main trend: bearish, short-term or bottoming out
If it falls to the 3245-3250 area, a short-term technical rebound can be expected;
After the rebound, it may be blocked again in the 3280-3295 range, suitable for short selling;
Unless it strongly recovers above 3310, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend.
IV. Operation strategy suggestions (core)
Sell on highs 3285 - 3295 Stop loss 3310 Target 3255 / 3245 Layout short orders near resistance
Trend bottom-picking 3245 - 3250 Stop loss 3238 Target 3275 / 3280 Oversold rebound expected, try to buy long with a light position
Aggressive short selling near 3310 Stop loss above 3336 Target 3280 / 3263 Top and bottom conversion resistance level, if the test is not broken, short
V. Summary and Outlook
✅ Conclusion: Next week, the trend of gold will still be "high-short as the main and low-long as the auxiliary", focusing on the game between 3250 support and 3295 pressure level.
Gold has not yet broken out of the short structure, and the inertial decline after breaking 3295 will continue. It is recommended that traders avoid chasing ups and downs, strictly implement stop losses, and remain flexible.
XAUUSD – Bearish Setup Following Liquidity Trap and Channel BreaGold has confirmed a bearish setup after breaking down from the ascending trend channel and trapping buyers near 3,390.
Technical breakdown:
Price engineered a liquidity trap above equal highs, inducing breakout longs near 3,390.
The rejection from that level triggered a clear change of character (CHoCH) and subsequent breaks of structure (BOS) to the downside.
The ascending channel, respected since early June, has now been invalidated with strong bearish momentum.
Lower highs are forming beneath key supply zones around 3,340, reinforcing institutional sell pressure.
Bearish bias:
Price is currently retesting a minor supply zone with signs of weakness.
As long as price holds below 3,340, bearish continuation is likely.
Targeting the strong low at 3,261, followed by the next demand at 3,205 if momentum persists.
This setup reflects smart money principles: engineered liquidity, structure shift, and supply-driven order flow.
Invalidation:
A clean break and close above 3,390 with BOS to the upside would invalidate this setup.
June 30, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
Keep a close eye on fundamental news — any major headlines could instantly invalidate technical levels and short-term indicators.
From the current chart structure, the trend remains clearly bearish, so the primary strategy is to sell on pullbacks to resistance.
Watch key levels like 3283, 3300, and 3350 closely — if price breaks above these, it could signal weakening bearish momentum, requiring a quick strategy adjustment.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3310–3312 – Resistance zone
• 3300 – Psychological level
• 3295 – Resistance
• 3283 – Intraday key resistance
• 3266 – Intraday key support
• 3250–3255 – Support zone
• 3245 – Support
• 3233 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3266 → target 3260, then 3250, 3245, 3233
• BUY if price holds above 3283 → target 3295, then 3301, 3312, 3320
👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there's interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues!
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and always manage your risk.
A new golden week, grasp it with the best condition
Good weekend everyone, this week's trading time is over, and next week's trading time will also enter the countdown. No matter how you grasp the market this week, whether happy or sad, Theo hopes that everyone will not bring your mood to the trading environment next week.
After all, next week is also a new beginning of the week. In the new week, everyone should be prepared for a new state. A good state should be persevered, and a bad state should be adjusted. With a good state to grasp the market trend of next week, I believe you can also be invincible and grasp the market better!
📊Technical aspects
Gold did not break through the upper pressure at midnight on Friday. Gold fell directly after opening in the morning on Friday. The bears broke through the previous 3295 support line, and the lowest level in the evening was 3255, closing at around 3274.
The daily line also closed in the form of a big negative line, with an obvious downward trend, and all the previous support will also turn into pressure. The short-term moving average system crossed downward to accumulate energy for the bears. Since the closing did not break through the upper 3300 pressure level, we will continue to rebound and short next week. After all, the technical side is still short, and only by following the trend can we keep up with the rhythm of eating meat.
From the 4-hour analysis, the upper short-term resistance is around 3295-3301, with special attention paid to the suppression at 3316. In terms of operation, the rebound continues to be the main short and the trend looks down. The lower short-term support is around 3250-3255. The overall main tone of high-altitude participation remains unchanged relying on this range.
💰Strategy Package
Short Position:3290-3300,SL:3315,Target: 3240-3250
Gold: Resistance Validated, Short at 3340-3350 Tomorrow📈 Gold Trading Recap & Tomorrow's Strategy: Resistance Holds, Short Opportunities Persist
💎 Today's newly updated live short strategy hit the TP target successfully! As mentioned earlier, when gold failed to break the support level, we anticipated it to range around 3330—today's trades were precisely centered on this logic. The 3350 resistance was also validated firmly during the session.
💎 Expect further upside in tomorrow's Asian session—recommend continuing short positions within the 3340-3350 range 🚀
🚀 Sell@3350 - 3345
🚀 TP 3335 - 3325 - 3315
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
GOLD Setup- Bearish Bias!FOREXCOM:XAUUSD Price is forming a series of lower highs and lower lows on the 4‑hour timeframe, indicating a downtrend bias. Recent resistance at the 70 EMA / descending trendline is holding strong,hard to break above.
Based on recent candle pattern with long lower wicks at current price, it’s most likely A short term correctional swing might occur to zone 3295-3310.
Setup:
Entry: 3300-3310
Targets: 3260, 3240, 3210
Stop Loss: 3331
Risk: 1:2,3,5
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
.
Welcoming your thoughts in this setup. Let’s grow together<3
XAUUSD Bearish Setup | Support Levels in SightGold has broken down from the ascending channel, indicating a potential shift in market structure toward bearish momentum.
🔎 Technical Highlights:
Clear breakdown from the ascending channel
Price currently facing resistance near $3,323
Two key support zones:
🟩 First Support: $3,295 – potential bounce area
🟩 Second Support: $3,258 – deeper downside target
📊 Short-Term Outlook: Expecting a minor pullback before continuation lower toward the $3,295 support. If that level fails to hold, the next target becomes $3,258.
💡 Trade Idea: Watch for rejection below $3,323 for a possible short opportunity targeting $3,295 and $3,258. Keep an eye on momentum and volume.
🔔 Note: Always use proper risk management. This setup is based on current price action and may change with market dynamics.
XAUUSD Technical Outlook – Rebound or Trap?1. Market Overview
After a sharp rejection near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, XAUUSD has pulled back and is now trading around 3,323 USD. Although price has stabilized somewhat, technical indicators suggest this is likely a corrective move within a prevailing downtrend.
2. Technical Analysis
Price Action
XAUUSD is currently hovering near 3,323 USD after a failed attempt to break above the resistance zone at 3,373–3,392 USD — an area marked by:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent downtrend
Repeated historical rejections.
The upper boundary of a sideways consolidation range from early June.
Recent candlesticks show indecision and rejection from higher levels, suggesting sellers are still in control.
Support Zone Behavior
The price recently bounced from the 3,294–3,317 USD range, where strong historical support and the 0.382 Fibonacci level align.
This zone continues to hold, but if broken, could open the door to deeper declines toward the 3,250 or even 3,224 USD levels.
RSI Indicator
RSI remains flat around the neutral zone, indicating a lack of bullish momentum.
No significant divergence or breakout signals are currently visible on the daily RSI chart.
3. Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluence resistance zone (0.618 Fib + historical supply).
3,435 – 3,453 USD: Previous swing high – key medium-term benchmark
Support:
3,294 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support, holding for now.
3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential next target zone if bearish pressure resumes.
4. Trade Setup Scenarios.
Scenario 1 – Buy if support holds and bullish confirmation appears
Entry: 3,295 – 3,305 USD.
Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD.
Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD.
Condition: Look for bullish reversal patterns (e.g., Bullish Engulfing, Pin Bar) on H1–H4.
Scenario 2 – Sell on rejection from resistance zone
Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD.
Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD.
Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD.
Condition: Clear bearish rejection candlestick with diminishing volume
Note:
XAUUSD remains in a vulnerable state. The current move may be a technical rebound rather than a true reversal. Traders should watch closely how price behaves around the 3,373–3,392 USD zone in the coming sessions. A breakout could signal a new bullish leg, while another rejection would likely confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
GOLD 2 Best Places For Sell Very Clear , Don`t Miss 300 Pips !Here is my opinion on Gold at the moment after the price moved very hard to downside as i mentioned in the last update , now we have a very good 2 places to sell it again , the first one @ 3326.00 , it`s a very good place to sell it cuz it was a very good support and the price break it and now it will play as a good res so we can sell from it , and if the price go higher we can sell from area between 3350 : 3345.00 , it will be a great place to sell it also , and if the highest place who force the price to downside we can add another sell entry from 3326.00 if we have a daily closure below it .
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)Our original sell bias from $3,347 which I posted live for you all, is now running in deep profits! Market is now down & running 810 PIPS in profit in just 2 days.
We have broken structure to the downside, crossing below our previous 'Wave E' low, indicating & acting as stronger confluence that Gold will carry on down towards our $2,800 target. Huge profits en-route for us all in this free channel.
Gold Holding Strong – Eyes on $3400 and Beyond! (READ)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after our last analysis, the price corrected down to $3341, then rallied back up to $3399. Currently, gold is trading around $3373, and if it manages to hold above $3355, we can expect further upside movement.
Potential bullish targets are $3400, $3417, $3450, and $3468.
Gold Buy- Go for buy if setup given
- just a small trade
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if your strategy allow
A Message To Traders:
I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely.
Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results.
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