DAX: Aggressive uptrend for the rest of the year.DAX maintains a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.112, MACD = 108.800, ADX = 23.465) as it is extending a rebound aon the 1D MA50, after an August 5th rebound on the 1D MA200 as well. Successive holds of those levels suggest that the index has already started the new Bullish Wave of the 2022 Channel Up. We can target at least the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 20,250) as it was the level that priced the last HH.
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GER30 trade ideas
Germany DAX30 buy analysisAs the price didn't react to the area of value in 1H TF, So I think it is possible that the price come down again to touch our entry but it should NOT close below the low.
I'm waiting for a lower candle shadow that trigger our entry and then go up again.
we can set an order or wait for price to come to our zone and then look for a CHoCH in lower TF and then find an entry with more confidence.
Let's see what happens...
Long trade
Trade Setup:
Buy-side trade on DE30EUR (DAX)
Entry Price: 18,517.0
Profit Level: 18,923.7 (2.20%)
Stop Loss Level: 18,341.6 (0.95%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.31
Key factors supporting this trade include positive economic data from Germany and the Eurozone and technical indicators that point toward bullish momentum.
Dax Long position setupWe had a BOS to the down and then a CHoCH to the top.
Now we have to wait for a pullback, and I think this area has its potential to set an order.
This setup is in 4H TF, so also we can wait for the price to come into our area of interest and then wait for a CHoCH in lower TF like 15m TF and then find another entry zone...
DE40 (aka GER40) - LONG (BUY) Trade CallOverall trend is bullish on Daily TF.
On 4h TF, Bullish Hidden Divergence has formed on RSI which indicates strengthening of bullish trend. Remember, Hidden divergences indicate continuation of trend. Therefore, Taking Long trade.
LONG Buy Trade Call
DE40 (GER40)
Entry Buy Limit: 18740
SL: 18640
TP1: 18840
TP2: 18940
DAX Outlook: Gains Driven by Siemens, Infineon, and Fed Rate My Trade:
A long trade at 18,730 on the DAX 30 is a bullish bet, signaling an expectation that the index will continue its upward momentum. Here’s the reasoning behind this setup:
Technical Indicators: The DAX remains above key moving averages, including the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which are traditionally seen as bullish indicators. A breakout from the 18,750 level would affirm this momentum, supporting a potential rise towards the first target of 18,780, and further to 18,870 .
Market Sentiment: With market optimism building around potential rate cuts from both the ECB and the Fed, rate-sensitive stocks have seen upward pressure. This environment could push the DAX higher as lower borrowing costs benefit corporate earnings and stock prices.
Support Levels: The stop-loss at 18,680 is set just below recent support, minimizing downside risk in case the market turns. This level should act as a cushion against significant drops if bullish momentum wanes .
Targeting 18,780 (TP1) allows for a short-term profit with minimal risk, while 18,870 (TP2) represents a more aggressive target, aligning with potential upward momentum toward all-time highs.
INFO
The German DAX 30 index rebounded on September 17, advancing by 0.50% to close at 18,726, recovering from the previous day's losses. Gains in major stocks like Siemens and Infineon, alongside positive market sentiment driven by hopes for a Fed rate cut, helped lift the index. This was complemented by easing fears of a U.S. recession, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.
Key Market Drivers
Tech & Energy Sector Gains: Siemens Energy surged 4.26%, and Infineon rose by 3.24%, driven by expectations of both ECB and Fed rate cuts, which would benefit rate-sensitive stocks. Auto stocks like Volkswagen (+1.36%) and Porsche (+1.18%) also added to the positive momentum.
Retail Stocks Surge: Zalando SE led the charge with a 7.33% gain, fueled by Kingfisher raising the lower end of its profit forecast, boosting demand for retail stocks.
Economic Indicators
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped from 19.2 in August to 3.6 in September, signaling a challenging outlook for Germany’s economy.
Eurozone inflation data, with the final August figures expected, could trigger further ECB rate cut bets, potentially lowering borrowing costs for businesses and boosting stock prices.
DAX Technical Outlook
The DAX remains above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling continued bullish momentum.
A break above 18,750 could drive the index toward the all-time high of 18,991, with a possible push to 19,200 if the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points. Conversely, failure to hold key support levels could see a pullback toward 18,000.
The U.S. retail sales figures and Eurozone inflation data will be crucial for determining short-term market direction, with a focus on the Fed's upcoming rate decision.
🌐 Sources
fxempire.com - Dax Index News: Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Bets to ...
euronews.com - Germany's economic sentiment takes a dramatic fall as ...
fxempire.com - Fed Rate Cut Bets Support DAX Amid Weak Eurozone ...
DAX30/GER30 PREPARE TO SHORT ONCE THE PRICE HITTeam, I am waiting for the price to move toward our position to short.
We are considering shorting once the price hits below 18703-18697. The current price is at 18720
We assume the stop loss at 18775, but a safer stop loss level would be at 18817
Our target would be 18619.4. Please reduce or take profit from 50% to 70% of your volume at this price and trail your stop loss toward BE.
And second target is 18526
GER40 swing trade(UPDATE)Last week we were looking for a sell from 18500 with many technical confluences. We also had a 11 day straight bull run without any meaningful retracements. This is a continuation to the previous idea, as the price did not react from our level of interest and kept pushing higher. Currently waiting for 18800, which is the Weekly 0.786 fib level drawn from the all time high. We target 18500-18450 for our TP1. Will update next week. As always, trade safe and wait for confirmations before entering a trade.
Fractals Trading Community,
Mei