HKD50 trade ideas
Hang Seng.....Lower targets?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has had 4 strong down days and declined to 28310 (closing). The move as counted at the hourly chart could not be another waves 1-2, becomes it retraced to deep (below the 0.786 Fib).
So, the alternate comes to forefront and a wave 2 should retrace deeper to ~28086 level. Closing below 27718 would make the bullish forecast invalid.
An alternate view suggests, that at the possible wave ((iii) (blue) high at 31183 a wave Y has ended and a correction to much lower levels should be underway!
At the hourly chart, I have visualized the idea for a wave 2 (blue) and a retracement. Note the trend line. We will see, how Hang Seng will do in the coming session.
Have a great Sunday.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng.....Be patient!Hello Traders,
at my latter analysis I wrote this:
„What does it mean for short term traders?
I like to see a „break“ of the high's at 29101 and 29152 on an hourly basis at minimum! Strong volume to the upside would strengthen the bullish view.“
It did not happen and HS breaks below the rising trend line, blue. This move was not expected by myself.
Hang Seng has made a low at 28274 and is rising since.
I have re-adjusted the trend line and a break to the downside could open the door to 28274 again. The level to watch is the possible wave ((iv)) low at 27505.
A rise above 29152 on a daily close open the door to -+29600 area. If this move occurs, a could be a wave „b“, `cause the decline from the possible wave ((iii)) high at 31183 looks like a „three-down“!
Anyway, we will wait and see what should be next for Hang Seng.
Have a great week.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI 7% range move with buy low and sell high pattern! Hello everyone. Hong Seng index has been sideways for a while influenced by the joint forces of US and China markets.
From the daily chart, the 7% range will be held firmly from some time. I would adopt a buy low and sell high trading strategy.
Strategy works until it doesn't. My trade plan is as below:
1. the upper zone being violated: buy the pullback with target set around previous high around 31000
2. the bottom zone being violated: exit and look for buying opportunities around 25000.
Stay safe and trade safe.
Hang Seng.....Not really impulsive!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has risen to 29288.23 and has found support at ~ 28282 area (blue trend line)
-->Daily chart!
A rise above the possible wave ((b)) high at 29490 would open the door to 29620 and 29880. Note the open gap left by trading on March 3rd! This would be closed at 30074.18!
It needs a decline below the support area of 28282 to become more bearish again, with prices at or around the 27505 level. A break of this area could open the door to 27505.
Have a great weekend.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask anytime!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Maxing the Daily Range- Fall ExpectedMulti Timeframe Analysis
Hint: Bulls nearly exhausted
Recommendation:
HK50 bounced like a pinball within a horizontal channel for several weeks. The current bullish run is fueled by the US$579 infrastructure deal. Expect 1 to 2k points higher come last week of June and early July.
As the index now approaches the daily and weekly highs with RSI approaching exhaustion, go long with caution. The previous pattern is clear, price should drop to daily support before resuming another bullish run.
MARKET ORDER RULES
Take a market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. Trade at your own risk.
[Analysis] Hang Seng Index (HSI)(HK)Price is currently consolidated between a tight zone of 27500 - 29200.
These two-level form the current resistance and support. Until either level is broken, it is best to stay away from trading the HSI as the direction is unknown. Trading within the range is not recommended as the movement is choppy and the range itself is very narrow. You can get easily stuck
The major support is at the 26000 levels. As long as this support is held, HSI remains bullish.
This consolidation does have a bullish bias overall. Would not recommend to short unless you are looking for scalping 3-4%.
Verdict: Slight bullish bias, but will remain sidelined for now as it is consolidation
Hang Seng.....He feels comfortable in the flag!Hello Traders,
Not much new to add for Hang Seng!
The flag-pattern is dominating the chart since many weeks. All the moves look to me like a corrective, overlapping structure! So, I guess a break to the downside and below 27505 area should not surprise!
The more important chart is the daily, where I was counting wave's ((a)) and ((b))!
A break of the 27700-27505 area would open the door to my favorite count idea. A target should be range at the 26750-26200! More bearish potential exist! Only a break of the possible wave ((b)) high at ~29600, would clear the chart for the bulls!
Have a great weekend.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
[HK50 Short] 8 June, 2021 - Roger V Trading Ideas08/06/2021
HK50
Entry Resistance level idea:
Range between 30250 to 30800 Resistance
TP Support level idea:
1st aim: 29000
Final aim: 26720
Final SL for all Short positions:
31315 Resistance Level
Comments:
RVTA trading ideas on HK50, looking at the monthly chart, we can see multiple candlestick has formed in a consolidation queue. This shows that in the long term trend, if it get resisted in between 30250 to 30800 resistance level, the main direction for HK50 will go in a bearish trend over at least 3-6 months time from the date 8/6/2021 writing this trading idea.
However, if it was to break the final SL of RVTA trading ideas of 31315 resistance. As per RVTA strategy secrets, it will inversely default look long position for HK50. (Please beware of fake breakouts.)
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(Note: The forecast above is an estimation of the resistance/ support level for the entry, TP, and SL. For more precise positions will depend on the shape formed with the candlestick at the time.)
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Disclaimer: ALuoTradingJournal does not provide any personal advice or general advice. This is only a journal to keep ALuo in noting the trades and what the market is going on as a trading journal. ALuo will not take any responsibility for any profits or losses. Please trade at your own risk.
[HK50 Short] 8 June, 2021 - Roger V Trading Ideas08/06/2021
HK50
Entry Resistance level idea:
Range between 30250 to 30800 Resistance
TP Support level idea:
1st aim: 29000
Final aim: 26720
Final SL for all Short positions:
31315 Resistance Level
Comments:
RVTA trading ideas on HK50, looking at the monthly chart, we can see multiple candlestick has formed in a consolidation queue. This shows that in the long term trend, if it get resisted in between 30250 to 30800 resistance level, the main direction for HK50 will go in a bearish trend over at least 3-6 months time from the date 8/6/2021 writing this trading idea.
However, if it was to break the final SL of RVTA trading ideas of 31315 resistance. As per RVTA strategy secrets, it will inversely default look long position for HK50. (Please beware of fake breakouts.)
--------------------
(Note: The forecast above is an estimation of the resistance/ support level for the entry, TP, and SL. For more precise positions will depend on the shape formed with the candlestick at the time.)
--------------------
Disclaimer: ALuoTradingJournal does not provide any personal advice or general advice. This is only a journal to keep ALuo in noting the trades and what the market is going on as a trading journal. ALuo will not take any responsibility for any profits or losses. Please trade at your own risk.
Hang Seng.....Touching the upper boundary of the flag!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng is trading in a flag. Today (2021-06-03) it touched the upper boundary of the channel and reversed.
This could be all wave ((b)) and the next move is to the downside, first to the middle line of the channel.
A rise above the high at 29405 will weaken the bearish view.
At the hourly chart you will observe the break below the rising trend line, blue. This indicates probably more weakness to come in the hours ahead and is a bearish sign. A substantial break of the level at or around the 28966-28884 area will be a good indication for this argument!
At 28804 a 0.382 Fibonacci of the latter advance is placed, and we will observe Hang Seng's behavior. More bearish potential exist!
Have a great Friday.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI bullish breakoutIntroduction: An amateur investor that is interested to expand my knowledge & improve my analysis. Methodology involves the use of longer term technical analysis to guide my macro view on markets. Please feel free to comment & critique. Looking forward to learn from everyone :D
Trend Analysis - HSI made a bullish breakout on 26 May 21. Looking to test the resistance at 29475 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%). Short term support trend-line indicated in dark blue. First breakout confirmation from falling wedge pattern (started 17 Feb 21). Target price for current pattern is 32000 (using the 2 black lines to measure falling wedge target price). Second confirmation will be a break above 29475.
Fundamental Analysis - Bullish on Chinese equity markets outlook particularly cyclical sectors (financials, consumer cyclicals) & valuations for technology are becoming increasingly attractive. Portfolio allocation should ideally have exposure to themes involving China 5-year plan, disruptive technological themes (fintech, green-tech, robotics etc.) & ESG. View for Chinese equities in year of 2021 is overall bullish. Potential headwinds include China's credit market stability, regulatory risks & lastly credit tightening.
Hang Seng.....Trading within a flag!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has traded in a narrow range of 328 point past week! It shows an „inside-candle“! The level of the possible wave ((iv)) area of 27505 is key! (all data at weekly, left-hand chart)
On the daily chart (middle chart) you will notice, that HS is trading within the „bearish-flag“, but still rising to the middle line of it! A break of this line, will open the door to 294xx area. More bullish potential exist.
Friday's candle closed bearish, and it could be, that HS will decline to the lower boundary of it! Well; we will see!
At the hourly chart we observe the green trend line, that HS has touched multiple times since May 11th! A break of this line to the downside opens the door to a gap-close and 28160-28000 area, while a break o the level of 28600 opens the door to 28900 zone!
Have a great weekend....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng.....More trouble ahead?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng declined past week and my bearish forecst indeed plays out! The target area of 27600-27500 is close to be achieve.
Overall to speak,it is possible, that the correction is not done to the downside and it could decline to 27210 area. This level would be the 0.618 Fibonacci of the possible wave and it is the minimum retracement for a wave y. If so to come, wave ((iv)) should end here!
But, why do I think so?
Well, the upmove from the possible wave ((iv)) area at 27505 looks like a „three-up“ and this would mean it is corrective! One more reason is, that the pattern could be placed into a „bearish-flag“! That means, a break of 27718 opens the door to 27505 and below to the mentioned area with more bearish potential ahead!
One target should range at 25936, were wave (w)=(y)!
For the bullish view it needs a break of the 29405 area to clear the bullish view.
Have a great weekend....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask anytime. Tell me your thoughts!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng.....Sideways ranging market?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has advanced 350 this week, but the progress is not an impulse yet to my view!
The overlapping structure suggest a corrective setup which could go on in the coming week.
A rise above ~28900 area on a daily close is needed to establish a new uptrend.
A decline below the level of 28260 area would favor a „sideways range market“ and a break of this level on a daily close could open the door to ~27600-27500 area.
Until then, I would see a break of one or the other level and wait for more clear pattern and structure!
Have a great Sunday and a great week.....
Ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng.....Island-gap! Hello Traders,
at my analysis on April 19, I wrote following:
„I like to see a „break“ of the high's at 29101 and 29152 on an hourly basis at minimum! Strong volume to the upside would strengthen the bullish view.“
Hang Seng broke above this area, but failed to exceed to the mentioned area. It just touched the 29388 level and reversed.
Further I wrote: „A rise above 29152 on a daily close open the door to 29600 area. If this move occurs, a could be a wave „b“, `cause the decline from the possible wave ((iii)) high at 31183 looks like a „three-down“!
The weakness for HS was clear to observe and some hours after advancing the 29388 area, it creates an „Island-gap“ (bearish sign) to the opening session on April 30.
Clear to see is, that the move from the 27505 low on March 25 shows overlapping waves, means a corrective structure.
So, it won't surprise me, if HS will show further weakness in the coming hours, maybe days.
As I often wrote in the past, I would wait for more clear structure to buy HS. One argument could be a rise above the 29450-29592 area, the possible wave (b) high, and step into the market with a „Stopp-buy“ order!
A decline to 29287 area should open the door to the possible wave (c) of ((iv)) low. In this case, the count needs to be re-adjusted!
Have a great Sunday.....
Ruebennnase
Feel free to ask or comment1
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Flat Top near endingFlat Top is confirmed and almost come to an end. Recently there aren't much negative news about HSI, so I assume it will continue the Flat Top pattern.
Tracing the hidden red line also a fine support for the current trend.
1h Fib Retracement is drawn, Fib 2.618 is quite a support for most of 1D candles.
RSI also around 50, it's been sideways since it retraced.
Let's update when it manages to break 29100.
