US30 – Descending Channel intact after False BreakoutFX:US30 is currently trading within a clearly defined descending channel, with price action continuously being restricted by the upper trendline. The recent decline indicates that sellers are in control, suggesting the possibility of continuation.
Price has recently broken through a key support area and may come back to retest it. If this level holds as support, it will reinforce the bearish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 34,100 target, which aligns with the boundary of the channel.
As long as price remains below this support area, the bearish outlook remains intact. A false breakout may occur to "trap" buyers, so it is necessary to wait for clear reversal candle confirmation before entering a trade.
Remember, always confirm your setup and use appropriate risk management.
US30 trade ideas
US30 bearish play setting upThe hourly chart is in a downtrend, and we are at that trend line.
On the 15m chart, the momentum of buyers has slowed down to the point where sellers hit it hard as shown by the black arrow.
We want to see the "Last strong buyer" failing to make a new high (or creating a fake high), retesting the horizontal and price falling out of bed.
Waiting for the retest is best but price might not retest before dropping.
Drop followed followed by long.Dow Jones is currently attempting to continue its bullish resurgence, but has failed to do so by failing to stabilise above 40,883. As long as price action is under the 40k mark, the points may likely retest the previous support barriers, situated between 39,500 and 38,750, as likely bullish catalysts for a long opportunity. However, by failing to go down, breaking, and stabilising above 40,883, the price may continue going up, targeting 42,600 and 42,000.
US30 Approaching Key Resistance–Potential Reversal Setup in Play🧠 Chart Overview
Asset: US30 (likely the Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Timeframe: Appears to be 1H or 2H
Indicators:
EMA 50 (Red): 40,119.5
EMA 200 (Blue): 39,897.3
Price at time of chart: Around 40,503
🔍 Key Technical Levels
🔴 Resistance Zone
Range: ~40,750 to 40,850
Price has tested this level multiple times and is currently hovering near it.
The resistance is holding, and no strong breakout has occurred.
🟦 Support / Focus Zone
Range: ~39,200 to 39,600
Marked as the “FOCUS POINT” – likely the expected target on a breakdown.
EMAs Insight:
Price is above both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, suggesting short-term bullishness.
However, since it’s stalling at resistance, it could flip bearish on rejection.
🧭 Price Action Narrative
The chart suggests a potential fakeout above resistance, followed by a sharp rejection.
The path drawn shows a short-term dip, targeting the FOCUS POINT (support zone).
Rejection at resistance aligns with typical distribution behavior.
📌 Trade Idea (Bearish Bias)
Entry Idea: Short near or just above the resistance level (~40,800)
Target: 39,400 zone
Stop-Loss: Above the resistance level (~40,900+)
Risk/Reward: Favorable if price fails to break above resistance convincingly
📉 Bias: Bearish Reversal
Unless price breaks and closes above resistance with strong momentum, the chart favors a pullback scenario.
DOW JONES: This is why it targets 70,000Dow Jones is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.838, MACD = 20.320, ADX = 34.615) as the recovery since last month's low is taking a pause ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Last month's candle closed with an incredible reversal and all this is just noise for long term investors who look at this very chart you have in front of you. The index is basically on the usual -20% correction it undergoes when it is in the middle of a multidecade Bull Cycle. If this is indeed what many call the A.I. Cycle, Dow has a minimum target of 70,000 expected somewhere in 2032.
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Dow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key DriversDow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key Drivers
Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is under pressure and likely headed for a correction due to the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, trade uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs, and weak economic data.
Key Drivers:
➖ Federal Reserve Policy: At the May 6–7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain the 4.25–4.5% interest rate due to persistent inflation (2.7% forecast for 2025) and a robust labor market (+177K jobs in April). This dampens hopes for rate cuts, pressuring stocks.
➖ Trump’s Tariffs: New tariffs raise inflation risks and recession fears, reducing the appeal of Dow Jones constituents like Caterpillar and Walmart.
➖ Weak GDP and Global Volatility: A 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and declines in Asian markets (1.6–1.8%) signal global instability.
➖ Technical Indicators: DIA trades below its 200-day moving average (~420 USD), with fewer stocks above this level (down from 76% to 55% since January), indicating market weakness.
➖ Outlook: Analysts (Long Forecast) predict volatility, with a potential drop to 38,958 in May, despite an average forecast of 43,370 by month-end. Historically, corrections occur every 1.88 years, and current conditions (tariffs, inflation, GDP) heighten the likelihood of a 10–15% decline.
Target: My downside target for the Dow Jones is 38,555.00.
Current factors and historical trends strongly suggest a near-term correction.
Idea for S&P 500:
DJI - 2000 pts already moved out of 8000 pts since last posted?It has already moved around 2000 points since last posted on 22nd April. Expecting around 8000 points moved as per mentioned earlier and the levels are still the same. Introduced additional levels for the better understanding. So, another 6000 points move pending before any reasonable correction? let's see.
Upside: 41240.49, 43084.22, 45025.94 and 46967.67
Downside: 34578.53, 32728.34, 30786.61 and 28844.88
US30 Long Setup | Targeting the Unfilled 4H Gap🧠 Technical Analysis
🔹 Unfilled Gap (Target Area)
A large 4H imbalance/gap remains unfilled between 41,500–41,600, highlighted in yellow.
This acts as a magnet for price — the market often retraces to fill inefficiencies after structure is built below.
🔹 Breakout and Retest
Price has broken above a consolidation structure and returned to retest the breakout level.
The "Invalidation Zone" (~41,147–41,222) is clearly marked — if price breaks below this area, the long idea is invalidated.
Current candle shows strong bullish follow-through after testing the invalidation area.
🔹 Bullish Market Structure
The overall price action is forming higher highs and higher lows.
The recent impulse move confirms bullish momentum and continuation potential.
🛠 Trade Setup
Bias: Bullish
Entry: ~41,237.50 (current price)
Stop Loss: Below 41,147 (clear invalidation zone)
Target: 41,541.52 (unfilled 4H gap)
Risk:Reward: High (approx. 1:3+)
✅ Why This Trade Makes Sense
Clean structure breakout
Clear imbalance target above
Strong follow-through candle at breakout retest
Logical invalidation level below the range
⚠️ Risk Considerations
Watch for volatility around news events (US data, FOMC, etc.)
A close below the invalidation zone would signal failed breakout
🧭 Trading Plan
If price continues to hold above 41,200 and prints bullish continuation patterns (e.g., bull flags or strong engulfing candles), holding toward the 41,540–41,600 range remains valid.
US30 (Dow Jones) Daily Analysis — Make or Break at DowntrendUS30 Daily Analysis
Technical Outlook — May 1, 2025
🔍 Current Market Condition:
US30 is trading near a critical confluence zone where price meets descending trendline resistance and horizontal supply. This level previously acted as a strong rejection point, making the current test significant.
🧩 Key Technical Highlights:
Price testing descending trendline from March highs.
Horizontal resistance zone around 41,000–41,300 is being challenged.
Stochastic oscillator is nearing overbought levels, suggesting caution.
The ascending channel’s lower boundary recently held as support near 38,000.
Compression forming between trendline resistance and rising support.
📈 Possible Scenarios:
Bullish Case:
Break and close above 41,300 could open path to retest 43,000 and 45,000 levels.
Look for a bullish daily candle with strong volume above trendline.
Bearish Case:
Rejection from current resistance could send price back toward 39,500–38,000 support zone.
Watch for bearish divergence on Stochastic or failed break above resistance.
📌 Important Note:
This week's economic calendar includes key data releases—stay alert for volatility that may trigger a breakout or reversal.
If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
US30: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 40,968.4 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 41,302.5 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US30 (Dow Jones) Outlook – Thursday SetupWe're seeing a strong bullish push following the London Open. My expectation is for price to dip back into the London ORB zone and test one of the marked short-term demand blocks.
🔁 Play-by-Play Expectation:
Pullback to the lower OB zones and ORB.
Strong reaction from demand with bullish continuation.
Final target: top of the H1-H4 Supply Channel above 41,200–41,300 zone.
🧠 Contextual Notes:
Clean structure break post-London open.
Price filled imbalances efficiently.
Still respecting bullish internal order flow.
Clear confluence with trendline + FVG zones below.
📍 Key Zones:
Demand/Entry: ~40,840–40,760
Target Supply: ~41,250+
Invalid below: 40,643
Let the market come to your zone — no chasing. Be patient and precise. 🧘♂️
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
This is my own analysis and I’m still learning. Please do your own research and be careful with your risk management. This is not financial advice.
US30 Bulls Testing Resistance – Will 40,770 Hold or Break?Price is currently testing the 40,770 🔼 resistance zone after a strong bullish push. This level has previously acted as a key ceiling and could determine the next directional move. Price has been climbing steadily with higher lows, indicating bullish momentum.
Support at: 40,194 🔽, 39,070 🔽, 36,800 🔽
Resistance at: 40,770 🔼, 41,552 🔼, 42,540 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A clean breakout and hold above 40,770 could open the path to 41,552 and 42,540.
🔽 Bearish: Rejection at 40,770 or a drop below 40,194 could signal weakness and send price back to 39,070.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
DJIA Tests Major Resistance – Reversal or Breakout Next?The Dow Jones Industrial Average is pressing against a key resistance zone near 40,860, the neckline of a double-bottom pattern after rebounding sharply from its mid-April low:
📈 Strong 2-week rally from sub-37K lows
🔵 Price attempting to break the neckline after reclaiming the 50-day SMA
📊 RSI near neutral at 51 – plenty of room to run
📉 MACD accelerating upward, hinting at bullish momentum
If price clears and holds above 40,860, bulls could target a move back toward 42,500–43,000. Failure to break this zone may trigger a pullback toward the 50-day SMA near 41,500.
The setup is constructive — but the bulls need confirmation.
-MW